Well well well, here we have it. 50 basis points! However, never say never to the downside. there are stops down there! Gold update post Fed statement and 50bp cut...upside in play for longer in Gold.
Traders continue to sell the US dollar in anticipation of a dovish speech from Jerome Powell on Friday. To the point where we wonder if this could be a case off "sell the rumour, buy the fact". Matt Simpson takes a quick look at the USD dollar index and bond yields.
Learned I can press record ! LEts see if this adjustment to the sell stop pays off
The feds Balance sheet reduced from $7.96 Trillion to $7.73 Trillion This is the largest reduction in the balance sheet since September 1st 2023.
Whats next for the markets? A complete collapse? A blowoff top? Sideways Chop? Lets discuss some pivotal price action
The FOMC is set to have their 2 day meeting. Market consensus is for a pause in rate hikes. Will the Fed shock the market like the ECB just did with their rate hike? The treasury yields market is still in a very strong uptrend & inflation expectations over the last 2 CPI prints have come in hotter due to energy. the markets are in a ver y precarious spot...
Gold closed bid and as an inside day. Stops hunts could be the theme ahead of the Jackson Hole event on Friday.
U.S. Oil still stuck in consolidation, making big ranging moves. Monday was a federal holiday, Juneteenth. New York -Traded Texas intermediate, or WTI did not make much movement upon opening. Sunday or Monday, closing with a bearish candle at $90.87. Tuesday dropped 1% or 100 pips to 69.82 area, then regaining by the end of the day closing at 71.63 Wednesday Fed...
With inflationary expectations low, a decrease in CPI and Core CPI, a likely slowing in interest rate hikes, there's too much positive news in the short term to ignore the likelihood of a near-term rally. Still, some hinges on Jerome Powell's outlook tomorrow, but I expect him to keep language as soft as his last speech. Last month, he was still very domineering...
As long as inflationary expectations remained low after Jerome's last speech where he spoke about softening the increase in interest rates, which may or may not be the case, there is a good chance that inflation ticks down. This would confirm a 50bp hike for December, easing monetary policy and providing room for equities to continue their rally. While I think a...
Market seemed to be happy with Powells answer to inflation and inflation data
In this video I break down the dollar chart. I quickly go through some fundamental data that's set to come out this week and at the end I give you some trade ideas I'm keeping an eye on. I hope you enjoy. Please feel free to add anything you'd like in the comments!
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