Oil is climbing the stairway to Heaven. We are in an interesting world where price signals are all over the place due to the manipulation of markets by governments. With inflation driving the market it would seem realistic for oil to break out into a new high. The question is, do we have a massive market sell-off that drives many asset prices down as the acts like the 12-year-old threatening to run away from home? Do they actually do it? Is it all talk? Only time will tell but be watching for a pivot back to QE or fewer rate hikes in the future. We all know that there are elections coming up the FED is likely to be put in place in order to make things go as smoothly as possible. The purple box is a nearby resistance zone and the red line is heavy top resistance. We have been playing XLE for quite some time with incredible returns and a good dividend.
Fed: " But MOM! You said we can play outside until the street lights come on!"
Powell
Is this the last dump? A simple fractal analysisThe stock market reacted positively to the latest info from the FED today, this lines up well this current rounded bottom formation.
This rounded bottom looks strikingly familiar to the previous step-down pattern, using a fractal we can see a possible dump lower which would bring us into a high-demand zone (36k-37k) and give a possibility of squeezing these shorts out for a final wave. This pattern would indicate a larger rally coming tomorrow before rejection.
One way or another, leverage must be reduced to move up or down and I believe that like the last large correction we must move lower for a stronger bounce if we want to have a meaningful year of profits.
Long Entry: 40 750
SL: 40 000
Target: 45 300
NFA, my personal trade opinion
Japanese yen keeps rollingThe Japanese yen has extended its gains as USD/JPY trades at a 3-week low. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 114.25, down 0.35% on the day. Will the yen break into 113-territory before the end of the week?
The Japanese yen has jumped onto the currency bandwagon this week, taking advantage of a US dollar in retreat. USD/JPY has dropped 1.11% this week, as the safe-haven yen has joined riskier assets such as the Australian and Canadian dollars and made sharp inroad against the greenback.
It has been a rough January for the yen, which has lost ground as US Treasury yields have shown a monster spike since the start of the year. However, the yield rally has run out of steam this week, with 10-year yields holding steady at 1.73%. This has allowed the yen to recover some of the sharp losses seen in January. The yen is very sensitive to the US/Japan rate differential, and if US yields resume their upswing, we can expect USD/JPY to rise as well.
The US dollar remains in retreat mode, which is somewhat surprising, considering recent economic data. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 199 thousand, well short of the consensus of 425 thousand. This was followed by a 7% CPI release, which was even higher than the previous reading of 6.8%. Both of these events should have given the US dollar a boost, but investors remain in a risk-on mood and are supportive of the other major currencies. The markets were soothed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony in Capitol Hill that red-hot inflation would ease during 2022.
In short, the markets have a healthy risk appetite and do not seem concerned by the hawkish pivot from the Fed as it moves towards a normalization of policy. Still, risk sentiment can change quickly and we could see the US dollar rebound if inflation moves even higher or if Omicron causes more economic damage than anticipated.
USD/JPY faces resistance at 116.29. Above, there is resistance at 117.02, which has held since January 2017
There is support at 114.89 and 114.22
XAUUSD Daily TA : 01.12.22 : $GOLDXAUUSD is stabilizing around the $ 1816 range. Gold remains sensitive to fluctuations in US10Y .
If the price does not break the important dynamic resistance of $ 1825, we can expect a further correction from the price, today's news will be effective as well.
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 12.Jan.22
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Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar edged lower on Tuesday after Fed Chair Powell’s testimony signaled that while the Fed will be normalizing policy, it has not made a decision on reducing its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet.
Commenting on Powell’s testimony, Cambridge Global Payments noted that “Powell defied the hawkish commentary of others on the Fed’s rate-setting committee, suggesting that a quantitative tightening decision will come in the next two to four meetings, with bonds allowed to roll off in an organic manner – as opposed to actively selling securities into the market. This is lifting global risk appetite and spurring flows into yield sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar.”
Keep an eye on 39600Everyday we are receiving important data which could affect the markets..Today at 10:00 Fed chair Powell testifies - if we dont lose today our major support 39.600 I would consider 39.600 as our bottom and market will recover slowly..
How if we lose our support? Our next support at 37400.
Imo if we lose 39600 we could see more sell pressure arise
Keep an eye on 39.600
Stay safe!
Gold's Yearly Outlook 2022Hi guys,
Welcome to 2022, the year where gold will make new all time highs. But (there is always a but) not before all bulls will be flushed out and the whole market will start turning bearish. There will be no free lunch and prices of below 1680 are possible. The bears set the tone for Q1 and they treated us with a strong engulfing bearish candle on the 1st trading week of the year.
⚠️ Start of new rate hike cycle
This year is a special year because it is expected that the FED will start a new hiking cycle in March 2022. Until that time, gold will remain in the claws of the bears and under strong selling pressure.
The most important day to write in your calendar is ofcourse January 26th, as Uncle Powell will treat us with a new monetary fireworks show. This FOMC meeting will be extremely important as Powell will reveal to the market when the first rate hike will happen and if the tapering will be accelerated again just like in the December meeting.
🐻 Bearish environment for Precious Metals
This is obviously a bearish environment for gold, since the strongest driver for gold is monetary policy (especially the FED's). I am expecting to see around $1725 near or after the next FOMC-meeting.
From that point we need to listen carefully to what the FED will tell the market. The market is pricing in a rate hike as early as March, immediately after the end of tapering. If Powell hints on a rate hike in March, gold will remain bearish until March and I am expecting to hit 1650-1675 by then.
💎 The Golden Magic
But then the magic happens. At a certain point the market will realise that there is no more cheap money. They actually now have to pay interest on their borrowed money. Which means plunging stocks, cryptos, commodities, you name it. And that is when gold will shine, as gold is an anti-cyclic asset.
If we may believe history, every new rate hike cycle was followed by a strong recession. Lucky for goldtraders, that is an environment where gold feels very comfortable. Recessions, war, conflict, pandemics etc are another strong driver for gold. I expect gold will turn mega bullish by summer 2022 and I am aiming for $2000 before end of this year. But not before 1650-1675 and not before the first rate hike.
❌ No rate hike scenario
If Powell surprises the market and not reveal plans for any rate hike in March, gold can jump to 1850 until the next FOMC in March with a possible test of 1900. This is a scenario that we need to take into account, and also technically still possible.
🔮 Cesaro's Crystal Ball
For the coming weeks leading up to 26th of January, I am expecting to see the 1775 horizontal support to be tested with a wick. From there we are most likely going to be ranging in a bearflag formation between 1775-1815, where the market will wait for the fundamental trigger to breakdown the bearflag towards 1725 or invalidate it and bulls move the price back to 1850. For now all shorts need to have SL's above the most recent lower high 1832.
Cheers,
Cesaro
XAGUSD Daily TA : 12.22.21 As you can see, in the last few days, the price has reacted positively by reaching the important static support range, and since then it has grown more than 1300 pips. We expect the price to continue to grow and reaching to $23.175 , $23.726 and $24.2 in the mid-term. (Important condition for uptrend : closing price above $ 22.87) .
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 22.DEC.2021
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$XAUUSD we are suspicious *This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Wassup! We hope everyone has had a good week so far. We wanted to sit down and share our $XAUUSD and $DXY thoughts with you guys. Right now the two appear to be in push and pull tug of war battle. $XAUUSD looks like it has the upper-hand currently, but we are suspicious.
On December 15, 2021 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed that the economy is robust and on a strong path to recovery from Covid-19. The Federal Reserve claimed that they are speeding up their original taper plans in order to target and reverse inflation.
A couple months back $DXY responded with a strong rally when the taper alarm was originally sounded. My team speculates that the current $DXY pull-back is just simply the "dip-before-the-rip." This on-going $XAUUSD rally just feels like a fake out. We can't see into the future, but know that this is the hunch of a decent group of investors.
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
ES/SPX Weekly Plan | 12/12 - 12/17Big week ahead in terms of tapering updates. We are very bullish coming into the week for the following reasons:
1. The market has been made aware of Powell's true stance on inflation since he told everyone "we need to let go of the word transitory." We did sell off soon after to 4500 as the market received the news, but since then, everyone has had time to digest it, and we rallied sharply back to almost all time highs. to me, that says they're essentially "accepting" his plan and think that the market is strong enough to withstand the taper
2. Big big dark pool prints all last week even with the knowledge of tapering. This is very supportive for the market
Dec 15 will be very important. Powell can crush everyone's hopes and dreams if he comes out hawkish and speeds up his taper plan or increases the number of tapers. If this happens, our bias will change quickly.
XAUUSD (GOLD) Daily TF (Important)As mentioned in the previous analysis, the price of gold has broken its dynamic support by falling more than 250 pips. Today is a crucial day for the gold trend, and if the static support of the $ 1760 range is lost, we can expect it to fall to lower levels such as : $ 1755, $ 1726 and $ 1707.
The previous analysis is still valid.
Caption :
🔴 Bearish Scenario :
We see that the price is in a trading range after the break of the uptrend and is fluctuating in the same range.
We see that the price has rebounded (pullback) to the broken level. We have to see if the price will succeed in breaking its next dynamic support with the start of the new trading week or not .
Exiting the price below or above this range could determine the possible future trend of the Gold ( XAUUSD ) .
The bearish targets will be $1760 , 1755$ , 1745$ , $1726 and $ 1707 respectively .
🟢 Bullish scenario :
If the price can break both its static and dynamic resistance (X-Point) and close above $ 1800, we can expect growth to the following targets, respectively:
Target 1 : 1808$
Target 2 : 1815$
Target 3 : 1831$
Target 4 : 1845$
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 15.DEC.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
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Two Different Scenarios of : $BTC 🔴🔵 Today, by examining the bitcoin chart in 4-hour timeframe , we see that the price is in a price compression range and will not follow a specific trend until it breakout of this range. There are currently two scenarios that will be mentioned below :
🔴 First Scenario (Bearish Scenario) : If the price penetrates its key support level ($ 45,600 to $ 46500) and closes below $ 45,600, our bearish scenario is confirmed and we can expect a fall 42K , 44.4K and even If the sales pressure is high , it will drop to $ 39,900 up to 40K.
🟢 Scenario 2 (Bullish Scenario): Maintain the above-mentioned static support, and then move to the next targets (shown on the chart) by breaking their dynamic resistance and stabilizing above $ 50,300 . Targets : ($ 53,250 , $ 55,720 and $ 59,120)
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 15.DEC.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
What is Going On Here with US Steel?NYSE:X US Steel Corp
I honestly do not know what I am looking at! Overall, this appears to be a sideways move, but with significant volatility. Sitting neatly within the levels shown, but I am not clear on if this is an ascending or descending wedge forming over the last few weeks. Overall market conditions are probably mostly at play here, awaiting for the Fed to 'say something else' with regards to inflation. What do you think?
ridethepig | Dollar Breaking OutIn the comments on the previous chart, we became better acquainted with the technical resources available and the lines in the sand which sellers were using to defend the topside in dollar. Since this should hopefully be of great practical value, and why I love talking markets on tradingview rather than twitter is because we can follow up with second and third charts to show progress in the instructive manner.
We knew the highs were playable, a more solid flow to 95.4x is/was wide open. Now buyers have taken the highs, they can begin to squeeze their opponent slowly, though this attempt could well be parried as we still inside an expectation of a corrective ABC (my suggestion). The swing up which is in play and needing to be reached to reload resources, such as:
=> 95.4x
=> if broken ... then 96.3x
You should take a look at the swings which arise here.
It seems to me Powell accepted defeat with Jackson. A very restrained move, which has been decided upon via tapering expectations and the dollar being the most effective place to park capital. Remember they have never defaulted on the currency, we are watching the door close in China, Russia, the Middle East and to a lesser extent Europe via the introduction of CBDC's.The position we have here at 96.3x appears really harmless but it is actually extremely dangerous, an impulsive leg in dollar will send shockwaves across the FX board and with both inflation and deflation are knocking at the door, equities are like a deer in the headlights.... in positions like this, we should play with extreme care.
Three Reasons to Be Bearish of StocksThree factors are weighing in on stocks lately. We have the persistent boogeyman of the new Omicron coronavirus strain that is vaccine resistant and has been weighing on global markets all this week. Also, Fed Chair Powell has made some hawkish statements about rates and tapering in response to inflation. Finally, the OECD has voiced a gloomier outlook for the US and Europe on account of persistent inflation. Hence, stocks plunged further breaking support at 4580, but bottoming out at 4564, the level just below. We are seeing a green triangle on the KRI here confirming support, and are currently getting a lift at the time of this writing. We've bounced through the vacuum zone and appear to be running out of steam just under 4632. This level will prove formidable, and we have several levels to break after that before considering highs again. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, but this could indicate that we are oversold and confirm the relief rally we are seeing right now. If support levels don't hold, 4545 will be the next target from below.
US Dollar Digests RisksThe US dollar has stabilized, and 95.82 seems to be providing good support. We have a green triangle from the KRI confirming the support, even though yesterday, we dipped slightly lower in an attempt to crack it. Some volatility came through after that, and the rally was finally thwarted by 96.65, the final level in the 96 handle. A red triangle on the KRI confirms the resistance here. We are likely to range in a sideways correction after such a large rally that took us from the 92's all the way to the low 97's. We should be able to hold the range from 95.82 to 96.65, but beware of the vacuum zone down to 95.26.
Bond to Bitcoin CorrelationHere is a brief correlation between bitcoin and bond price action. Hope you find this useful! I haven't been posting much due to what's going on in the economy. Switching up my approach. We all know when bonds rise, yields fall. When bonds fall, yields rise. Think about this when reading this chart. Good luck to the HODL!
Feel free to follow or simply keep up. I'm working on getting better always so bare with me. We all know what kind of journey this is!
Would love your support!
SPY, volatility in the coming month S&P 500 (SPY). Omicron Variant news tanked our market this past Friday. Since this pandemic started SPY has not gone below the Bull Market Support Band which consists of 20 and 21 weeks SMA. Currently, the weekly Bull Market Support band prices are at $446 and $447.
Some prices to keep watch are $453, $447, and $446. Consider these as supports during this volatile time.
Also note that on December 3, 2021, the Debt Ceiling is due for default. What is the Debt Ceiling? “It is a ceiling imposed by Congress on the amount of debt that the U.S. Federal government can have outstanding.” The U.S has been able to lift the ceiling before however December 3, 2021, is a date to look out for.
Plus December 3rd is a Friday so I would consider closing out of positions or keeping a small number of options since the Debt Ceiling news could come out after the market closes.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has estimated that the Debt Limit could reach until December 15, 2021. However, December 3rd is still a date to watch.
What if the Debt Ceiling defaults?
The US dollar could lose value (If the USD loses value then BTC is likely to rally)
Gold and Commodities could rise
Interest Rates could Rise
Equity Market could decline (Stock Market Recession)
This would only happen IF the Debt Ceiling defaults, as of now all we can do is wait and trade small positions until a clear direction is decided in the market.
EURUSD 3H & 1H TF : 25.Nov.2021The price has finally reached its lowest level in recent months and we can still expect further fall until the downtrend is broken, but it should be noted that the level of 1.12 is a psychological support level as well as static, so breaking this level to Requires a lot of power, different scenarios are marked on the chart.
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @Ar_M_An_4
📅 25.Nov.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
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XAUUSD 1D TF : 25.Nov.2021Today, the price of gold reached the bottom of its uptrend channel and after reaching this range, it reacted positively. The lowest price traded today was $ 1778. Today's Canlde is Signal Bar and we're looking forward to KEY BAR , and in this case we can look for the Buy position in the daily timeframe. if the price Close below this range we will enter to a Sell position and the most important resistance (target) will be $ 1796 and $ 1802.
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @Ar_M_An_4
📅 25.Nov.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ To give us energy and motivation , please like and leave a comment. ❤️