Quick Sell on USDCAD Placed the trade during M Jerome Powell Speech. From One key zone to the other. probably will be hit by the end of this week / early next week.
Powell
ES/SPX Weekly Plan | 12/12 - 12/17Big week ahead in terms of tapering updates. We are very bullish coming into the week for the following reasons:
1. The market has been made aware of Powell's true stance on inflation since he told everyone "we need to let go of the word transitory." We did sell off soon after to 4500 as the market received the news, but since then, everyone has had time to digest it, and we rallied sharply back to almost all time highs. to me, that says they're essentially "accepting" his plan and think that the market is strong enough to withstand the taper
2. Big big dark pool prints all last week even with the knowledge of tapering. This is very supportive for the market
Dec 15 will be very important. Powell can crush everyone's hopes and dreams if he comes out hawkish and speeds up his taper plan or increases the number of tapers. If this happens, our bias will change quickly.
XAUUSD (GOLD) Daily TF (Important)As mentioned in the previous analysis, the price of gold has broken its dynamic support by falling more than 250 pips. Today is a crucial day for the gold trend, and if the static support of the $ 1760 range is lost, we can expect it to fall to lower levels such as : $ 1755, $ 1726 and $ 1707.
The previous analysis is still valid.
Caption :
🔴 Bearish Scenario :
We see that the price is in a trading range after the break of the uptrend and is fluctuating in the same range.
We see that the price has rebounded (pullback) to the broken level. We have to see if the price will succeed in breaking its next dynamic support with the start of the new trading week or not .
Exiting the price below or above this range could determine the possible future trend of the Gold ( XAUUSD ) .
The bearish targets will be $1760 , 1755$ , 1745$ , $1726 and $ 1707 respectively .
🟢 Bullish scenario :
If the price can break both its static and dynamic resistance (X-Point) and close above $ 1800, we can expect growth to the following targets, respectively:
Target 1 : 1808$
Target 2 : 1815$
Target 3 : 1831$
Target 4 : 1845$
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 15.DEC.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
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Two Different Scenarios of : $BTC 🔴🔵 Today, by examining the bitcoin chart in 4-hour timeframe , we see that the price is in a price compression range and will not follow a specific trend until it breakout of this range. There are currently two scenarios that will be mentioned below :
🔴 First Scenario (Bearish Scenario) : If the price penetrates its key support level ($ 45,600 to $ 46500) and closes below $ 45,600, our bearish scenario is confirmed and we can expect a fall 42K , 44.4K and even If the sales pressure is high , it will drop to $ 39,900 up to 40K.
🟢 Scenario 2 (Bullish Scenario): Maintain the above-mentioned static support, and then move to the next targets (shown on the chart) by breaking their dynamic resistance and stabilizing above $ 50,300 . Targets : ($ 53,250 , $ 55,720 and $ 59,120)
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 15.DEC.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
What is Going On Here with US Steel?NYSE:X US Steel Corp
I honestly do not know what I am looking at! Overall, this appears to be a sideways move, but with significant volatility. Sitting neatly within the levels shown, but I am not clear on if this is an ascending or descending wedge forming over the last few weeks. Overall market conditions are probably mostly at play here, awaiting for the Fed to 'say something else' with regards to inflation. What do you think?
ridethepig | Dollar Breaking OutIn the comments on the previous chart, we became better acquainted with the technical resources available and the lines in the sand which sellers were using to defend the topside in dollar. Since this should hopefully be of great practical value, and why I love talking markets on tradingview rather than twitter is because we can follow up with second and third charts to show progress in the instructive manner.
We knew the highs were playable, a more solid flow to 95.4x is/was wide open. Now buyers have taken the highs, they can begin to squeeze their opponent slowly, though this attempt could well be parried as we still inside an expectation of a corrective ABC (my suggestion). The swing up which is in play and needing to be reached to reload resources, such as:
=> 95.4x
=> if broken ... then 96.3x
You should take a look at the swings which arise here.
It seems to me Powell accepted defeat with Jackson. A very restrained move, which has been decided upon via tapering expectations and the dollar being the most effective place to park capital. Remember they have never defaulted on the currency, we are watching the door close in China, Russia, the Middle East and to a lesser extent Europe via the introduction of CBDC's.The position we have here at 96.3x appears really harmless but it is actually extremely dangerous, an impulsive leg in dollar will send shockwaves across the FX board and with both inflation and deflation are knocking at the door, equities are like a deer in the headlights.... in positions like this, we should play with extreme care.
Three Reasons to Be Bearish of StocksThree factors are weighing in on stocks lately. We have the persistent boogeyman of the new Omicron coronavirus strain that is vaccine resistant and has been weighing on global markets all this week. Also, Fed Chair Powell has made some hawkish statements about rates and tapering in response to inflation. Finally, the OECD has voiced a gloomier outlook for the US and Europe on account of persistent inflation. Hence, stocks plunged further breaking support at 4580, but bottoming out at 4564, the level just below. We are seeing a green triangle on the KRI here confirming support, and are currently getting a lift at the time of this writing. We've bounced through the vacuum zone and appear to be running out of steam just under 4632. This level will prove formidable, and we have several levels to break after that before considering highs again. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, but this could indicate that we are oversold and confirm the relief rally we are seeing right now. If support levels don't hold, 4545 will be the next target from below.
US Dollar Digests RisksThe US dollar has stabilized, and 95.82 seems to be providing good support. We have a green triangle from the KRI confirming the support, even though yesterday, we dipped slightly lower in an attempt to crack it. Some volatility came through after that, and the rally was finally thwarted by 96.65, the final level in the 96 handle. A red triangle on the KRI confirms the resistance here. We are likely to range in a sideways correction after such a large rally that took us from the 92's all the way to the low 97's. We should be able to hold the range from 95.82 to 96.65, but beware of the vacuum zone down to 95.26.
xauusd possibilities after the big dropGold might bounce off the trend line to stay within the channel.. Also if it breaks and closes below the channel, it might go down too.. My target will be 1830-1860 level but we will see how it reacts after the drop.. Thanks Mr Powell (Not)
Bond to Bitcoin CorrelationHere is a brief correlation between bitcoin and bond price action. Hope you find this useful! I haven't been posting much due to what's going on in the economy. Switching up my approach. We all know when bonds rise, yields fall. When bonds fall, yields rise. Think about this when reading this chart. Good luck to the HODL!
Feel free to follow or simply keep up. I'm working on getting better always so bare with me. We all know what kind of journey this is!
Would love your support!
SPY, volatility in the coming month S&P 500 (SPY). Omicron Variant news tanked our market this past Friday. Since this pandemic started SPY has not gone below the Bull Market Support Band which consists of 20 and 21 weeks SMA. Currently, the weekly Bull Market Support band prices are at $446 and $447.
Some prices to keep watch are $453, $447, and $446. Consider these as supports during this volatile time.
Also note that on December 3, 2021, the Debt Ceiling is due for default. What is the Debt Ceiling? “It is a ceiling imposed by Congress on the amount of debt that the U.S. Federal government can have outstanding.” The U.S has been able to lift the ceiling before however December 3, 2021, is a date to look out for.
Plus December 3rd is a Friday so I would consider closing out of positions or keeping a small number of options since the Debt Ceiling news could come out after the market closes.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has estimated that the Debt Limit could reach until December 15, 2021. However, December 3rd is still a date to watch.
What if the Debt Ceiling defaults?
The US dollar could lose value (If the USD loses value then BTC is likely to rally)
Gold and Commodities could rise
Interest Rates could Rise
Equity Market could decline (Stock Market Recession)
This would only happen IF the Debt Ceiling defaults, as of now all we can do is wait and trade small positions until a clear direction is decided in the market.
EURUSD 3H & 1H TF : 25.Nov.2021The price has finally reached its lowest level in recent months and we can still expect further fall until the downtrend is broken, but it should be noted that the level of 1.12 is a psychological support level as well as static, so breaking this level to Requires a lot of power, different scenarios are marked on the chart.
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @Ar_M_An_4
📅 25.Nov.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
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XAUUSD 1D TF : 25.Nov.2021Today, the price of gold reached the bottom of its uptrend channel and after reaching this range, it reacted positively. The lowest price traded today was $ 1778. Today's Canlde is Signal Bar and we're looking forward to KEY BAR , and in this case we can look for the Buy position in the daily timeframe. if the price Close below this range we will enter to a Sell position and the most important resistance (target) will be $ 1796 and $ 1802.
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @Ar_M_An_4
📅 25.Nov.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ To give us energy and motivation , please like and leave a comment. ❤️
XAUUSD 1D TF : 10.Nov.2021 The price finally managed to break the 1835$ resistance ! With the announcement of statistics and news , the price increased by more than 400 pips and is currently trading in the 1860$ price range . In order to continue the upward trend, we have to wait for the stabilization above the $ 1835 level ...
Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @Ar_M_An_4
📅 10.Nov.2021
⚠️(DYOR)
Euro dips to 3-week low as Fed trimsThe euro is down considerably in Thursday trade. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1550, down 0.53%. Earlier in the day, the euro fell to 1.1528, its lowest level since October 13th.
There were no surprises from the Federal Reserve meeting, as policy makers trimmed the QE programme by 15 billion dollars/month. The move was nonetheless highly significant, as it marks the first tightening in policy since QE was introduced as a response to the economic downturn in early 2020 due to the Covid pandemic. Although the move was communicated to the markets in advance, it was unclear as to how much the Fed would trim, and an amount other than 15 billion dollars could have shaken up the US dollar.
The Fed's move was aptly described as a 'dovish taper', in that the Fed continues to maintain a dovish stance as far as future rate hikes and inflation. Fed Chair Powell said after the meeting that the bank would remain patient and wait until the job market was stronger before raising rates, emphasising that the Fed would encourage job growth through low rates. As for inflation, Powell stuck to his well-worn script that the current bout of high inflation is "expected to be transitory" and will ease lower. Powell appears to be odds with the markets, which are far more hawkish and have priced in several rate hikes for 2022. Inflation has been running at 4% over the past five months (double the Fed's target) and it's becoming a stretch to argue that this is a transitory trend, with no sign that inflation will cool anytime soon.
What is interesting is that other major central banks are also preaching patience and arguing that high inflation is transitory. Earlier today, the BoE surprised the markets by maintaining rates; the BoE had signalled that it would raise rates in order to contain inflation. However, the BoE echoed the Fed when it stated today that the factors causing high inflation were transient and that it expected inflation to ease in several months. The ECB is also singing from the same hymn sheet - the bank has projected that inflation will be "subdued" in the medium term, and earlier in the week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the bank had no plans to raise rates in 2022.
There are resistance lines at 1.1658 and 1.1754
1.1501 is providing support. This line has held since July, but was under pressure earlier in the day. Below, there is support at 1.1440
EURUSD: To new lowsEURUSD has been around a key level 1.16 for several weeks. Price couldn't break above the 1.17 level, going back down below the so called support level (1.16). Despite the fact that this zone hasn't been tested enough to consider it now a resistance, fundamentals might give us this impression. So what can we expect from the EURUSD:
Fundamentals: Speculations are expecting Tapering process to be announced by Fed Jerome Powell tonight, lowering its spending on US investments. Starting TAPERING means starting a 6 to 7 month process in which the Federal Reserve suspends all of its financial assistance to support the US economy. The first effects will be on the USD ,Stock indices and Bond Yields, and finally the JPY and Gold. Normally, we can see the strengthening of the #USD and the weakness of other commodities and currencies.
Technically: Price is around the 1.16 level. Double top might be forming, indicating the incapacity of the price to break previous highs and thus continuing its bearish overall trend to new lows.
Gold's weekly Bearish triangle (Update 3)Goodday traders and welcome to the last weekly update this year,
The last 2 months of this year are going to be awesome. Extreme volatility and volumes are hitting the market like a hammer, and that is no surprise as there is so much at stake right now. For gold I expected to hit 1850 at least before FOMC, but that seems to be a bridge too far. Now we are nearing the big day and bulls might still hit 1850 if Powell sounds concerned about the bad GDP and the high inflation, but odds favor a bearish breakdown for gold after FOMC.
We have FOMC on Wednesday, BoE (possible) rate hike on Thursday and NFP on Friday, so I am expecting a bearish week ahead in goldyland with some bullish retracements. For now I see a retest of 1802 as the main logical retracement point (so bears can get their H&S) with the bearflag break pointing at a test of the 1700 price. Bears might push for a 1680 break after that with next target 1650 (monthly lower BB).
🥁 Taper Tantrum
Fundamentally tapering is very bearish for gold, but I don't expect the big guys will give it to us that easy. Expect some crazy moves up and down the coming 2 days to confuse everyone before the meltdown. As earlier mentioned, the only bullish scenario that I see, is if Powell shows concerns about the high inflation and the low GDP. So keep your ammunition to yourself until Wednesday to go all the way and collect some crazy pips.
🔮 Cesaro's Crystal Ball
So what to expect this week? Well it's going to be a bumpy ride, that's for sure. $30-$40 candles will be no exception. Bulls have found support near the 50 DSMA, after they got rejected from the 200 DSMA several times. Today the bulls tested it again, and they will keep hammering it until Powell comes for the bearish rescue.
For now I expect a retrace back to mid-1770's with the bulls' next target being 1802 & 1810. There is also a bullflag pointing at 1825, so they might pump it up more than expected. I will refrain from selling until the FOMC Press Conference and will wait for confirmation from Powell to sell this baby all the way to 1700, but we might hit 1650 before year end. That would be an amazing ride down south.
Good luck this week and enjoy the mess! :))
Cheers,
Cesaro
Tidying Up...Flows into USD continue with yields unlocking potential for flattening. The latest breakdown in euro is calling for a reassessment across all charts, did not expect the pullback to come this far, so we will go through the process over the coming sessions. An interesting environment, we are in the middle of summer with thin liquidity and technical discipline needed.
↳ Eyeballing 1.162x for strong support, Nov-20 lows should be enough to lean on.
↳ Looking at the macro charts below, the price action is supportive and we should see 1.161/1.162 comfortable hold a breach below the 1.15 barrier will imply the LT base is not yet complete and unlock a test of parity (not expected).
↳ Inflation can provide the momentum above 1.185x (30th July highs) and indicate we are already on track for the 1.21 and 1.25 initial targets in this next wave.
EUR/USD - Fall Scenario 2 - Taper Supports GreenbackHello Traders
Here is a new SELL Scenario, Federal Reserve 'on track' for tapering asset purchases.
For a longer term, it can reach 1.15 and 1.14 for a quarter if you are patient.
💹EUR/USD SELL STOP
✅ Entry @1.16300 or below
✅TP-1# 1.16200
✅TP-2# 1.16000
✅TP-3# 1.15800
✅SL# 1.16800
Source : www.actionforex.com
JamdeJam will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of
reliance on the information contained within this channel including
data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
150 in the crosshairs for USDJPYThe best move in FX, since 2020 was the idea of early development of the base in USDJPY, let's start with a quick chart review which really got into the heart of the matter. This update is much more about the technical configuration and how to work with an impulsive move.
Unlocked.
As is now becoming clear to many analysts, USDJPY is playing towards the 150 macro level, this is in a certain sense an impulsive leg; the C leg of an ABC correction, would bring into its own 5-3-5 majority. Fresh sellers will refrain from stepping against this train. Rightly so, because here would be the typical example of false prevention, which only manages to create new weaknesses eg from early soft sellers which will provide fuel to play against the isolated highs.
Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
ridethepig | USD with the trump card!Will try to keep this one short and sweet.... a strong move from buyers here is decisive, sellers have given up their parry and have really been outplayed ... you should never be a slave to one side !!!
The tempo is clearly in favour of bulls.
The immediate threat is 114 with 118 above. Consider that above 118 there is very little in terms of resistance and will allow bulls to control all the way up till 150. A tactical fines, once thought that risk-off flows would be preventive, has been uncovered that USD is the ultimate haven and JPY is at a disadvantage.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming...
Analysis of the Federal Meeting todayThe meeting of the members of the Federal Reserve was held today at 17:30 Iranian time. In this post, we will analyze his speech and the direction of the market.
Remarks by Mr. Powell
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell said in a statement today:
1- Inflation is expected to decrease
2- Trying to control inflation and employment
3- Reduction of inflation in the first half of 2022
4- Waiting for the debt limit to be lifted
Conclusions from Powell's speech:
The United States is working to boost trade and businesses in the post-corona era by increasing liquidity. This increases inflation by increasing liquidity
For this reason, increasing liquidity increases inflation and, due to the higher cost of using labor and consumer goods, creates a catastrophe (similar to Iranian policy) if left unchecked.
Mrs. Yellen's words
US Treasury Secretary Janet Louise Yellen said today that I would like to make a few points:
Waiting for the debt limit to be lifted
Failure to raise the debt ceiling would be a disaster
Market reaction to these negotiations:
The US dollar index (DXY) fell from 94.373 to 94.107, after which the gold and currency pairs on the right side of the US dollar entered an uptrend.
In the currency pairs that have reached the bottom, you can now expect an upward trend.
Please follow me and like this post. I'm on Twitter too.
(Trying to be the best)
GOLD: the effects of tapering (Bernanke 2013 vs Powell 2021)Hi Guys,
to keep it simple...
Financial Crisis 2007-2008 and Pandemic led to the implementations of QE programmes in combination with other accomodative monetary policies.
Following these events FEAR drove the value of Gold to its highest at $2.000 both in 2011 and in 2020.
In both these occasions, after having reached $2000, the precious metal bounced off the support to unfold lower highs to form what may look like descending triangles.
In 2013 the support was finally broken when Ben Bernanke announced a "tapering" of some of the Fed's QE policies contingent upon continued positive economic data. Specifically, he said that the Fed could scale back its bond purchases from $85 billion to $65 billion a month during the upcoming FED policy meeting.
On Sept.22nd, 2021 Jerome Powell said tapering of bond buying coming "soon".
Can you see the similarities? Will Gold react the same way as it did back in 2013?
It seems too easy to be true. LOL.
Hope the above is of interest but if you have any queries please do not hesitate to ask.
Good luck everybody!
Cozzamara
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Before you decide to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully assess your investment objectives, experience, financial possibilities and willingness to take risks. There is a possibility that you will lose your initial investment partially or completely. Therefore, you should not invest any funds that you cannot afford to completely lose in a worst-case scenario. You should also be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and contact an independent financial advisor in case of doubt.
