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Special Gold pre-FOMC UpdateGoodmorning guys, a quick pre-FOMC update on gold, Solid bullish PA and bulls printed 2 white soldiers on the daily timeframe with a solid close 1768+ (0.618 fibo). This makes it very likely bulls will try to reach the next fibo level, which is around 1797 and printing the third soldier. They might stall at 1790, around the bearish trendline. COT-day Many have wondered what was going on yesterday. The dollar was rising, but gold was rising with it. The answer is simple, yesterday was COT-day where all the COT-data is collected. The big guys want to trouble your vision by showing they added longs on the COT-release coming Friday. This makes Tuesday's always tricky to trade. FOMC & Uncle Powell It is widely expected that Powell will make an 'announcement about a tapering announcement in December' in this FOMC. However, expect a somewhat dovish Powell due to the bad NFP of August and calming inflation data. On the other hand, the Retail Sales data was explosive. If no timeline announcement is being made, gold will fly and break 1800 with its first target 1825. This seems unlikely looking at the bearish market structure, but never say never. The market is full of surprises. Taper Timeline If Powell mentions the timeline for tapering, that will be the nail in the coffin for gold. Also pay attention to the dotplot, if there are more than 7 voters pledging for a rate hike in 2022, gold will be dumped quicker than you can say 'hot potatoe'. Bearish target remains 1730-1735 on the short term, but depending on volatility and volume we might go even lower. Trade safely today! Cheers, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CesaroPelucci
2
Taper Comments Effects - Ape Mode Should be ExploitedRight or wrongly, as soon as the word ' taper' is announced, or even eluded to - the market goes into Ape mode and trades axiomatically - in full Ape mode it means: - Sell SPY - Buy DXY - Sell commodity currencies. Tapering is actually positive, so in effect the right thing to do if you don't want to scalp the short Ape Trade, is buy at lower levels particularly instruments like the SPY where you can build a position over time - the best of both words: timing the market and time in the market! PS. you don't need to be an Ape to know what the Apes will do. Just need to be their to exploit the phenomenon.
by Adam-Cox
The tale of a 1001 golden bullish pipsWelcome back traders to the last month of Q3. It was quiet from my side for some time, due to the summer holiday break and major risk events on the horizon. A lot has changed in a few weeks. The market was pricing in tapering and interest rate hikes by the FED in early June, but the sentiment changed quickly after a disappointing speech for dollar bulls by Powell during Jackson Hole. The NFP came in very disappointing last Friday, and the stagflation drums are beating again. Jackson Hole So alot hinged on Powell's speech during Jackson Hole. As always Powell was very vague, however he did mention a couple of interesting things; 1. They will start tapering this year 🔹Not clear how much, could be $1 billion or $10 billion per month 🔹Not clear when (September, November or December FOMC-meeting) 🔹Since the August NFP missed its forecast and came in lower than 500k, it is unlikely they will announce tapering at the September FOMC-meeting 🔹Leaves us with the November and December FOMC-meeting as possible tapering announcement moments 2. No interest hikes for the foreseeable future 🔹Cheap money in abundance for the foreseeable future Yes, there will be tapering in place this year (most probably December), however the FED will keep drowning the market with cheap money in the meantime. Take note that tapering doesn't mean that they will take money out of the market, however it means they will slow down the money injections into the market. Reading between the lines it means the FED balance sheet will keep growing, however at a slower pace (currently $8.4 trillion). Eurozone The shift of attention of traders moves to the next world reserve currency. With the Eurozone economy growing at its fastest pace on record and inflation set to rise further, pressure on the ECB to taper its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) is building. It is widely expected by economists and analysts that there will be an announcement during the ECB-meeting coming Thursday to start taper its PEPP-program in December. This will obviously be bullish for EURUSD and have bearish implications for gold (somewhat) and the dollar. Technicals DXY Although I expected the dollar would break out after the August NFP, it did not so. Currently it seems the dollar bears have been building a bearflag on the daily chart and the third test of 89.5 might do the trick for a breakdown towards 88 and lower. Gold Gold made some good bullish moves since the flashcrash of early August and we are back above 1800, however it failed again to close the day and week above the 0.382 fibo retracement level ($1829). This implies bullish weakness and I am expecting a bearish retracement first towards the 1770-1790 zone and bullish continuation towards 1875, 1925 & 1960 afterwards due to dollar weakness to complete an inverse H&S pattern. A solid break of 1835 on the daily chart will make things extremely bullish in goldyland, as this will confirm the triple bottom and this will invite bigger bulls to the arena. EURUSD On EURUSD I am very bullish due to the Bullish Wolfe Wave on the weekly chart (send me a DM if you see it too) and the touch of the bearish trendline that broke July 2020 and turned bullish support. I am expecting to see the break of 1.235 before end of year with endtarget 1.28 (Q1 2022). Indices I am still bullish on indices as long as the Dow Jones (US30) hasn't touched the 36.6k mark and I am expecting one more blow-off top before we see a market correction of at least 20% (if not more). However I am not buying and I do not advise to buy all time highs to anyone. Rather I would like to stay put and wait for my projected reversal point to sell the equities market to the highest bidder. Beautiful days ahead with a lot of pips to be collected. Love and hugs, Cesaro 😎
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
2
Gold - Can the Rally Continue?Gold was given a helping hand by Jerome Powell and the Fed on Friday when they signalled that they can be patient on tapering and that it is not linked to interest rates. The comments brought US yields and the dollar lower and triggered a rally in gold which generally does well in more accommodative environments. But while gold did rally and significantly break above $1,800, it still remains a little short of the July highs around $1,833 where it repeatedly ran into resistance. So this remains the key barrier for gold. A break above here could be viewed as a very bullish signal for the metal. But will it have such a significant breakout in it? While the Fed told investors what they wanted to hear on Friday, tapering is still likely this year, even if not in September. And rate hikes won't be far behind, whether linked to tapering or not. Gold may have been given a lift in the near term, but the medium-term doesn't look so bright for the yellow metal. Will that hinder it around $1,833 this time around as well? One thing that may help it above here and to generate some real upside is poor US data which could cast real doubt on a taper at all this year, especially if accompanied by a continued surge in delta cases. A move above $1,833 could see traders eyeing up the early summer run towards $1,900. Perhaps a little ambitious looking right now but a lot has changed in the last few weeks. Who knows what the next few holds, starting with the jobs report on Friday.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by OANDA
EURUSD - Into Correction Territory?EURUSD broke above the descending channel earlier today in a move that may be indicative of a correction being underway. The breakout followed comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday when he reaffirmed the view that the Fed is still considering tapering this year while also urging caution and patience. More importantly, he stressed that tapering and rate hikes are not linked, which put concerns around higher interest rates at ease. The weakness in the dollar that has followed drove the EURUSD pair towards the top of the descending channel, with it breaking above at one stage and giving the impression that a correction has started. Of course, these things are rarely that simple and the pair has since pulled back to trade around 1.18, just back inside the channel. A daily close above the channel, particularly one involving a rotation off 1.18 would look quite bullish and could draw attention to potential resistance levels above. The 200/233-period SMA band on the 4-hour chart falls around 1.18 which also coincides with prior resistance. And while the MACD and stochastic have levelled off a little, there's no clear divergence at this point to suggest the rally has run its course. If we are seeing a breakout, 1.19 stands out as the next major test, coinciding with prior resistance and the 38.2% retracement level (daily chart). Ultimately, the big test would come around the 50/61.8 fib levels, which coincides with the 200/233-day SMA band and covers 1.20, a potential psychological barrier.
by OANDA
The "unlocking" of 150 for USDJPYSequences and corrections illustrating waves for those who are not holding any live positions from below the long-term swing is becoming increasingly expensive, invalidation is clearly defined below the 'B' at 101.4x, while taking October 2018 highs 'D' should be enough to "trip the fuse" and trigger momentum towards 125 and 149.3x a multi-decade ABC corrective pattern is at stake; this 'C' is a pragmatic demonstration of the lust to expand with a typical 5-3-5 sequence. Buyers had the move and played an exchange with the trap, which despite the length of the combination via covid in 2020, can be expressed in no other terms than; Buyers aiming to setup the ideal position (the cheapest tickets against sellers in an isolated ABC corrective sequence - see 2020 Macro Map ). I managed to carry out the deeply laid trap, (although Fed did refute a number of times) since Powell was finally handicapped via Jackson this week, I thought perhaps it is time for an update of my chart. Moreover, I know no other ending in which this precise swing for the "ABC" is more clearly illustrated than in what follows. This have proceeded as expected so far; Japanisation was already in play and the key idea was Yen dislocation. That has happened up till now and was done solely via risk however with the monetary side entering into play and tapering starting in most likely November, the path has been cleared for the king (dollhair) to receive inflows.
Long
by ridethepig
4
US Micro-Cap Breaking Out?Here in this position, it is clear that intensive work has gone into supporting the entire global recovery. Moreover, we could already count the resilience in credit as ideal results from the covid siege. But now I want to focus on the US and small caps in particular are getting to work and the advance is leading to a more palpable exhaustion leg and opening some of the wildest trades for 2022 and beyond. You can see this is not the same position in China or Hong Kong. In the short and immediate term, we are witnessing capital rushing to park in US assets as the ONLY alternative. The pressure to park capital in 'safe assets' which are not threatened by the nanny state in the Far-East, Middle-East, Russia and now to a lesser extent Europe while it remains hijacked via Schwab. This more or less exhausts the options that we have and has clearly pinned both the Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp: Sure the "migration of capital" from East to West is underway but the threat of US losing its hegemony is a multi-decade process. I will be looking to fade the highs in US Microcaps from October time to ride profit taking into Q1 2022 before we start chapter two. Interested to gage the interest levels for ETFs here, if there is enough we can start to establish some levels, calls, and invalidation zones for IWC together in the comments.
AMEX:IWCLong
by ridethepig
1
USDMXN updates after JacksonThe positional struggle, or put simple the slow siege from sellers back to the base is finally exhausting. Powell has attacked with a move several times the strength of the surrounding defence. USD will now maintain the pressure and birth of fresh strength will unlock the next leg higher in USDMXN. Since 2018 we have been tracking the explosion higher. The break of the ABCDE triangle with Covid has already been analysed several times, much rather talk about the significance of the next move. Well, it renders the precedent and totally immobility of MXN, Powell confirming the USD offer is starting to expire means breaking strong support is no longer possible. On the technicals we must be clear, the 18 handle contains not a little resentment but rather the ambitious dreams of forcing another move similar to what we saw in 2020, allowing our opponent into a false sense of security with a trap before capitulating as far as the eyes can see. The resistance to the topside is now mostly dead and buried. For those looking to buy, the goal above comes in to play at 22.3x and 22.9x as a ideal extension.
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | CNH Market Commentary 22.08.2021Buyers position marks (5) as a soft and temporary floor. Other events can cause the base to appear a lot stronger than it does, so the transfer of the attack from one direction to the other can be subtle, although not a matter of pure chance. It has been a relatively straight forward flow, but one that has not seen much light thrown on the subject thanks to noisy explanations. As can be seen in the charts below, @ridethepig was concerned at the highs. The said possibility of a temporary floor is much rather a natural profit taking move in the struggle against sentiment. A considered judgement about the perverse signally from PBOC and Xi ought to look something like; base at 6.35xx is strong support (after the powerful legs lower it is very sensitive). That is the real truth, we are inside a multi-year decline that could go a lot. lot lower, for now, we shall have to content ourselves with limiting adding short positions till we are back above (4) highs at 6.587x for another test of the lows in our current range (6.58x - 6.40x).
Long
by ridethepig
2
Gold - Eyeing Early Summer Highs?Gold appears to be eyeing its mid-summer highs after Powell comments during the virtual Jackson Hole event. Powell delivered what the markets wanted to hear. No immediate taper, an awareness of the downside risks for the economy and a commitment that tapering and rate hikes remain unlinked. The dollar softened after the speech and gold rallied back through $1,800. The question now is whether it can mount a run at $1,833, a break of which would send a very bullish signal. We're seeing a strong end to the week but time may just not be on gold's side. Given what we experienced early in the Monday Asia session a few weeks ago, next week could be interesting. A move above $1,833 will get people talking about $1,900 once more, although it may run into some resistance around $1,860 where it has previously struggled.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by OANDA
Big moves on GOLD today! Today we expect to see big fluctuations in price on GOLD during and after the Powell press conference. That will happen in less than 2 hours! After the event we would expect a more clear direction for a little longer period of time. If you've been following our analysis, you know what we expect in the long-term. Today we will be watching closely what happens during and after that press conference. Do not rush to enter any trades in the first few minutes as this could be a false direction. Wait for a confirmation signal! One of the main scenarios is price climbing up to 1825-30 and then rejection of that zone and possibly going below 1770! In order to make an entry though, we want to see some confirmation before that.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by ForexTrendline
29
NQ - Equity Analysis, Macro Events - Friday Powell 10AM ESTNQ and the Balance of Equity Instruments traded to resistance overnight ahead of Today's Macro Data and Fed Chair Powell speaking @ 10:00 AM EST. Kaplan's expected reversal of reversal Taper, came and went. Bullard was extremely Hawkish yesterday. IF Powell is less so, the DX will decline. Financials remain in SELL. Bonds remains in a SELL. ROCs in 10Yr need to be watched carefully. VIX inside the Long from lows with all pullbacks defended - 18.95 LIS. FRYday's are usually "VIX Attack". Support for VIX M1 @ 19.65. ES remains in a Larger Long, it defended the .382 with the Gap Fill @ 4466.65. YM is the Weak Sister, it defends Globex resistance. RTY has yet to trade a Pull Back. The usual suspects - AMC TSLA ARKK do not look good... it is OPEX. Gamma failing for the 4th week in a row. Participation will roll off after 11:30 AM EST as EU Session closes. BR/VG will be on the hunt... Friday's are theirs's. We are taking today off from trading on balance with 1/4 to 1/2 size today at maximum. Next week will provide the continuation to advancing the SELL, we began positioning for it this week. 38% Sell to Open presently DEC on Derivs and M1 - M3 Vix Complex. Today's Price action will be aggressive if the usual suspects show up to run Prices. We will simply Hedge DEC with SEP CTs if necessary. 10AM will obviously provide a reaction, we are SOH til then. For today, we are Neutral and trading very small size, limiting risk exposure.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
50
Do not trade before PowellToday we expect Powell's press-conference which at Jackson Hole. This will definitely affect price and provide us with some trading opportunities. However, short-term positions prior to that are quite risky. If you're looking for any day trading opportunities, I would suggest that you wait for that press-conference first. Before that we could see price trading in both directions. Our expectations are still the same. We think that we could see possible reversals in the zone of 1,1788-1,1828. We will be watching each candle inside of this zone for a possible entry signal. In case price begins a downside move, then the key level will be 1,1723. If market goes below it, then that would confirm our idea. You could also use this level to add to your position. The main target is still 1,1640. Follow our daily analysis to see how this setup will develop!
Short
by ForexTrendline
18
Gold & Jackson HoleHello traders and welcome to the grand finale event of the year. Jackson Hole We are nearing the Jackson Hole speech by Jerome Powell, where he will lay the groundwork of the FED's monetary policy & strategy. Jackson Hole is extra important this year, as traders and investors are expecting a change of strategy by the FED for the coming year. The FED-cartel Powell himself has been mildly dovish, but his sidekick Bullard has been vocally hawkish in his interviews. Usually the FED-President uses his sidekick to send a signal to the market before the real decisions will be announced. Clarida & Kaplan on the other hand had a change of heart by suggesting to wait with tapering until the effects of the new delta-variant become more clear. The situation can't get more confusing. What to look out for? Traders will be looking out for clues from Powell on tapering the unprecedented bond-buying program. Most likely Powell will remain vague (as we know him), but he might start giving a timeschedule on when he plans to start slowing down the bond-buying with the first 40 billion a month. The expectation is that the FED will remain supporting the market with 80 billion dollars per month (currently 120 billion per month) until end of next year. Technicals We are nearing the 1815-1820 (1st major resistance) and the 2nd major resistance (1830-1835) in a bearflag formation that broke on Wednesday. Next to the bearflag there is also a Head & Shoulders and an H4 Bearish Gartley pattern developing that is aiming for the $1725 major support. We are also still below the daily deathcross and this is a strong bearish signal for gold, while the DXY is operating in a daily golden cross. Buy or Sell? The big question for many. My personal opinion is to stay out of the market until the situation calms down and see how the market will digest the event after the weekend. While this is still a gamble, I do think the gold bears are in charge below 1830. If you want to take the gamble, then I would say a short has a higher risk:return ratio currently. Tomorrow we will get the answer. Good luck and may the blue pips be on your side. Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CesaroPelucci
1
Jackson Hole and Eur-UsdIt is only a day away from the start of the central bankers' symposium on Thursday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Jerome Powell has already been making it clear to the markets for several days that the Federal Reserve's stimulus plan is coming to an end. Stop with the ultra-accommodating policy, zero-cost money and massive purchases of government bonds (120 billion a month): it is time for tapering. The markets did not react positively. However, as the days passed (two days, in fact), investors realised that the Fed will not allow a stock market crash, creating chaos. So yesterday, the S&P500 index has once again touched its all-time high. What is on the horizon is a split between the Fed and the ECB. After years of walking arm in arm in the name of growth and the fight against inflation, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are about to part ways. With GDP at 6.5%, a steadily improving labour market and, above all, inflation already above 5%, the Fed is preparing to reduce stimulus. On an economic level, monetary tightening means that access to credit will become a little more expensive and thus less money will be available for families to consume and businesses to invest. As far as the currency market is concerned, all this translates into a strengthening of the dollar. There is some concern, especially because of Covid-19, which is far from being averted also because of its variants. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed her fears in a letter to Congress, in which she warned that the Delta variant of the virus could damage the economy. On the other side of the Atlantic, the ECB has no intention of changing its stimulus plan and rates will remain at zero for a long time to come, as Christine Lagarde confirmed when answering journalists' questions at the ECB's latest meeting, “there is still a long way to go before the damage to the economy caused by the pandemic is offset” and again, “none of us would want to tighten prematurely.” The only thing that remains to be seen is the timing of the Fed's tapering, most likely before the end of the year. Now, quickly a look at Eur-Usd to try to understand what could be the future scenario of the currency pair. Above, you can see the chart with the most important levels highlighted. If what is written above is confirmed and the US will set a date for the start of tapering, then for Eur-Usd the doors of decline will open wide. In this case, I don't think the rebound will continue any further. If there will be hesitations, second thoughts, and only hypotheses and ideas understudy, then I think that Eur-Usd can continue to rise with first targets 1.17800, 1.18200 and 1.18750/1.19250 area. So, from tomorrow, eyes on the symposium in Jackson Hole.
by TradingwDavid
Powell's taper comments coming-up: Potential scalp opportunitiesI have set-out my logic in prior posts of how I am exiting the SP500 market from prior longs bought more than 18 months ago - by selling into rallies. If an infrastructure deal goes ahead and debt ceiling issues are dealt to successfully, I will reconsider my current stance. However, I am happy to scalp particularly from needless / senseless market over-reactions for short term scalp trading opportunities. We may see an opportunity coming up with Powell and the Jackson Hole meeting coming up. My rationale set-out below: - tapering is simply a reduction in the Fed's open market operations (OMO) whereby treasuries are purchased from dealers (secondary market) with the result being that cash from trader's is deposited into the Banking system. This cash is also known as reserves ( Refer blue Histogram ) - The effect of this QE style OMO is to strip credit interest out of the non-government sector that would have otherwise been paid to holders of treasuries as one form of money (treasurites) is replaced with another form (Bank cash / reserves). - the banking system is 'pull system' , not a 'push system'. Banks need capital to make loans; not deposits as the Fed, like all Reserve Banks, they act as lender of last resort. Stuffing the banking system full of cash does not benefit Banks, rather it makes regulatory capital management harder for Banks and produces scarcity of interest bearing securities, with downward pressure on rates. - to offset some of this effect, reverse repos have been employed by the Fed as a 'temporary' measure - but is its like a senseless merry-go-round. Why am I saying all of this? - where you have record high fiscal growth supporting a market (risks looming in the background - debt ceiling), and potentially needless market panic regarding the word 'taper', which is actually positive not negative for the market, then that's a great short term buy opportunity to scalp back to the mean. What level will I buy at: I would like to buy around the cost basis of swing traders which is marked on the chart and which represents around 20% market capitalization. I will be checking out my Market Risk indicator which looks at a range of factors including futures spreads for a potential long scalp trade. Instead, call writing maybe your go-to strategy here instead but there's not much Vol to sell (yet!) #MMT
AMEX:SPY
by Adam-Cox
Shorts covering quicklyThe evolutionary break of 1.260x unlocked the floodgates and buyers successfully captured the higher high. But the revolutionary attack would not be complete without capitulation and be as follows: 1. Taking 1.295x (there is no question of having broken above July 19th highs, since sellers have given up a lot of ground for it, will unlock a test of 1.331x as a minimum flow 2. Using 1.317x for reference. The idea behind this attack, as clear from this example, consists of forcibly clearing a way through the defences to unlock a momentum move. Here sellers themselves have to cover their positions, so that triggers the cascading and comradeship. All we need to concentrate our forces on, is attacking if above 1.295x, till then we can continue sitting on our hands in a neutral position if not already loaded from below. Amongst other things, we also need to consider the forcible breakdown in Oil to $57 which will can add fuel to the attack.
Long
by ridethepig
1
Lines in the sand for DollarIt seems a timely choice to update the dollar chart. Extending the characteristic positioning in the previous euro chart, seems to me to be more in accordance with the needs of 93.75 - 94.00 holding and acting as a reliable guardian for the remainder of August and September, but the threat to an attack higher is real. In the DXY chart, buyers will need to make good use of the whitespace above as an attacking battlefield. Things are quite different in the ladder between 95-96, where we are talking of the complex change in nature from corrective to impulsive; in fact we must consider both possibilities as valid in their characteristics From a geopolitical risk perspective, the task of sellers defending the 94 handle is also complex, buyers can see the problem of restraint they are having and could aggressively rush to USD, moving DXY higher with a hint of more risk (Afghanistan, Taiwan etc). With all that said, the long term structural decline of the West looks underway with migration Eastward. This will be a multi year/decade long process as long as Dems are at the helm. My impression is as follows; we are trading towards the top end of the range, here actively looking for opps to trade 93.7x/94.0x => 90.6x. This C leg can extend as high as 95.4x and still be valid. Invalidation and reassessment of the view will only be required above 96.3x.
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
38
Pacific Gas & Electric Price Prediction for Second Half of 2021***THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. DO YOU OWN RESEARCH AND FORM YOUR OWN CONCLUSIONS.*** Historical Preface: Having just come off an update on policy from a (un-surprisingly) hawkish federal reserve, it's been said that rates are unlikely to rise precipitously until 2023. The news of unlikely tapering sent many of the utilities stocks into a sharp short-term decline. I do predict these severe declines to be short term and utilities ($PCG included) will soon return to their established trends. For PG&E, the established trend is bearish. Prediction: My prediction for the remainder of the summer is the stock will likely struggle downward until it finds strong support around $9.00-$9.05 (see trended chart below). This downward pressure is a result of investors seeking ever higher returns in more speculative sectors throughout the summer. The less "sexy" sectors (Energy and Utilities) will likely languish until Fall. I also think the perception of Utilities has suffered since PG&E's and ERCOT's most recent gaffs; deserved or otherwise. ESG minded investors are avoiding these equities on a principled basis rather than financial. I anticipate this trend to eventually fade. I will continue to add to my position at the $9.25-$9.30. Once a new strong support level is found I expect a quick, multi-week bull run to $15.00 during the last part of the year. I don't foresee prices exceeding $20.00 in 2021. Pervasive Risks: The location of PG&E's service area remains its biggest and most obvious risk. Most will cite the indebtedness as PG&E's largest negative mark but I don't consider this the case since the debt structure is understood and the re-payment plan is well defined. PG&E's location in California's most arid region will dominate the future risk of investing with this company. Obviously, there's little PG&E can do to rectify the issues introduced within its service area. These same challenges would be faced by any utility who exists in this location and the service outcomes would likely be the same. But, the companies leaders are taking steps to better alleviate concerns of future wildfire liabilities. Future Confidence: I like that PG&E understands its locational challenges and is working to mitigate them. Though I work in the Electrical utility industry, I don't know how the problems posed can be easily or cheaply addressed beyond better maintenance programs. PG&E seems to understand their position on that front is fragile and they need help finding other ways to meet their challenges; even if they don't understand what those challenges precisely are or how to mitigate them. This makes the close work they're doing with Palantir a very bullish indicator of PG&E's future success. Final Remarks: I remain very bullish in the long term.
NYSE:PCGLong
by forever_green
Special Gold pre-NFP UpdateGoodmorning traders and welcome to the most important day of the rest of the month. It is exactly 1 year ago when gold made its all time high at $2075. The FED has two targets to raise interest rates and start tapering. The first is inflation above the 2% target per year (currently sits around 3.5%), so that is a check. ✅ The second is that the labor market gets going again, which is not the case thus far. Today might change that: 🔹 If NFP rises above 870k (whispers are talking about 1 million+ jobs), then we will see a strong $100 bearish move on gold before the end of month. 🔹If NFP comes in as expected between 800k and 900k, gold will test the 1790 support zone and we remain in the month long range 1790-1835 until Jackson Hole. 🔹If we see NFP coming in between 600k-800k, gold will surely test the 1830 resistance zone, with an extension to 1850. 🔹Below 600k and it is game over for the gold bears and gold is ready for a rocket to 1900. Arguments For Stronger Non-Farm Payrolls • Employment component of ISM Non-Manufacturing rises to 53.8 from 49.3 • Employment component of ISM Manufacturing rises to 52.9 from 49.9 • Challenger job cuts drop to 21-year low • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rises to 85.5 • Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index hits pandemic high • Continuing Claims fall to pre-pandemic lows Arguments for Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls • ADP drops to 330,000 from 680,000 • Jobless claims have been missing forecast in the whole month of July and kept rising 🔮 My personal expectation is that NFP will miss the forecast and come in between 750k-850k and we remain ranging between 1790-1835 for the rest of the month. However, we can not ignore the charts and currently we have broken the bearflag and the daily is on the verge of creating a deathcross. All to played out in a few hours. Goodluck, and keep your TP's close but your SL's closer.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CesaroPelucci
6