BTC Bullish Pennant and Bullish Engulfing Candle PT $46kBTC is currently in a Bullish Pennant and a breakout here would have an upside target of $46k if it breaks out to upside successfully.
There are some key catalysts atm as Powell is giving a speech that is largely dovish at this very moment and could help BTC break out to upside of this current formation.
We just closed a 1H Bullish Engulfing candle with high volume (confirmation of candle's continuation intent) as well.
DXY has been puking the entire time Powell has been speaking too.
Powell
BTC Headed to $42-44k to touch Downtrend LineIt's clear that BTC is headed higher but how much higher? With the onset of all the signs on the wall that Powell will assuredly delay tapering bond purchases which were originally supposed to occur sometime in 1H 2022, the macro thematic picture couldn't get more bullish for BTC ... all the while the SP500 is headed to 4600 by year end and the inflation combo are helping to create major tailwinds for bitcoin. Additionally, I have an analysis on the bearish structure the DXY is in and how it's likely headed to the 2014 lows (Obama Era levels).
I only view inflation as a temporary issue from supply chain constraints but the other element in the picture is the fiscal and monetary policy. The US congress is about to push through a major multi-trillion dollar Infrastructure bill. Additionally, the debt ceiling will be lifted at the same time, and J Powell is about to get a lot more dovish with China's stock market in the midst of a major retracement.
Lastly, there is a LIVE bill (HR 4451) introduced by Congressman Emmer with bipartisan support from Soto and others which seeks to eliminate painpoints for crypot and blockchain technology from a regulatory perspective. The bill is called the Securities Clarity Act and it aims to stop calling crypto companies securities giving FULL clarity for investors and project devs to go full steam ahead.
You can read more about that bill which will be voted on in the next weeks once it is released from committee:
emmer.house.gov
FaceBook Diem - FB will be making headlines about their major stablecoin project - Diem - any day as Yellen pounds the table to get regulations in place before this event happens. It is my view that FB and the US Government have been coordinating which is why Yellen changed her tone from slight negative to slight positive on crypto. They want to have some guardrails in place before FB releases Diem b/c overnight at least 340 million people in the US will have access to a US digital dollar stablecoin through a social app. This is massively bullish as it shows the Fed / Treasury / SEC / CFTC are all onboard with allowing crypto thrive for the time being.
Elon Musk - Elon's B Word Conference appearance was more than just theatrics this time around. The guy confirmed he genuinely believes in crypto and put all haters to rest. He even shocked the world by announcing SpaceX owns BTC on its Balance Sheet - something no one expected. Additionally, Elon has much bigger plans for crypto imo likely involving SolarCity and decentralized mining with unused power from batteries. This is a longer-term vision but clearly Elon wants to be heavily involved in the space and wants to help develop decentralized money for the people.
Amazon - although the rumors about Amazon were denied by the company, it's unlikely they aren't true considering Amazon confirmed the rumor partially by saying they are exploring cryptocurrencies and bringing the newest tech to their customers. This is confirmed by the job board posting which isn't for a dev or lower level position but a Blockchain Executive - someone who will be in the Exec Suite of AWS... this is very big news b/c this single person will be responsible for steering AMZN into crypto and it will happen - just a matter of when not if.... I'd say chances are good by year end still.
Macro-thematic Reasons to be Bullish
J Powell delaying tapering bond purchases
SP500 headed to 4600 by year-end (supported by several Elliott Wave analyses)
Further weakening of DXY by year end
Inflation from Fiscal and dovish Monetary policy
Major Deficit spending by Congress with the Infrastructure Bill
US Congressmen sponsoring bipartisan bill to deem cryptos separate from securities so investors and developers have green light to innovate
FaceBook Diem to be announced in coming days after the sudden switch of HQs from Switzerland back to the US - hint that FB's legal team has regulatory clarity in the US
Elon Musk accepting BTC again for Tesla payments
Elon having wider plans for crypto than anyone imagined since SpaceX owns BTC on its balance sheet too
AMZN working on crypto payments
All of this combined BTC should trend higher over next few days to $44k and I expect there to be at least some resistance there and then we will retrace for another chance to buy in before a wave higher.
Gold bulls' revenge will be sweet (Update 3)Hi guys,
After a well-deserved holiday, a week of acclimatising at home and adapting to current market dynamics, it's time to make some serious bucks from the market. First things first, I want to thank all my followers for following my trading adventure for over a year now.
Now onto the meat and potatoes. What is happening in the market? It seems the market is losing it and all correlations that have been in place for months (if not years) are thrown out of the window. Silver up/gold down and vice versa, dollar up/gold up, US10Y down/dollar up. Totally irrational behaviour and when this happens, you know shit is about to hit the fan. This should not surprise anyone, because everything looks like a big bubble that is about to burst. The housing market, commodity prices, equities and other asset classes are trading at extremely high levels which have not seen before.
Many respected analysts such as Jeremy Grantham (who has a proven trackrecord on bubble recognition) have voiced their deepest concerns about current market conditions and dynamics. With annualized monthly inflation running as high as 11%, real growth and the jobmarket not looking to improve, the stagflation ghost of the 1970-1980's is just around the corner. Stagflation is the magic word that will make gold propel to higher grounds and it is only since a week or two that analysts dare to pronounce the word in the respected media outlets.
But before we see strong bullish PA on gold, we still have some time to kill. FOMC is planned on Wednesday and this is a key risk event for the market and gold in particular. After the big sell-off of June, where gold tumled more than $150, Powell turned dovish in front of the Senate and reiterated that it is too soon to raise interest rates and start tapering. I do not expect Powell to turn away from the script or give a timeline next Wednesday on tapering, but I do expect we will see a $20-$30 sell-off towards $1780-$1785, providing gold bulls with a fresh new entry for $1900+.
August will be a hot summer month for precious metals in the lead-up to the Jackson Hole Symposium that is planned in the last week of August, and I am expecting NFP being the trigger for the bull rally. It is yet to be seen what will happen in Q4, but I am expecting some profit taking towards the yearly Christmas rally in December where I expect gold to make new all time highs in Q1 2022.
I can not repeat enough that current market conditions and dynamics are extremely bullish for gold and buying on dips is the way to go, don't get noised out by the small bearish candles you see. You do not want to be on the wrong side when gold starts another $200 bull rally. COT-report is bullish and large speculators are losing their shorts and adding buys for 4 weeks in a row.
Good luck and may the blue pips be on your side.
Love and hugs,
Cesaro
Gold bulls' revenge will be sweet (Update 2)Hi guys,
The Delta Corona variant is stealing headlines around the world and equities got smashed down yesterday pretty hard. Crypto seems to be getting a beating too along the way and it is not looking pretty in the market. Gold is keeping up pretty well (unlike Silver which is hammered down just as everything else). Time for a follow up on my last chart.
Last week we hit my first target of 1835 after the CPI numbers got released and dovish comments by Powell. The inflation is getting uncontrollable with the annualized montly figures hitting almost 11%. These are record breaking numbers we have not seen since the 1980's. With US10 yields also getting hammered down to below 1.2%, gold and the dollar seem to be the favorable instruments for traders and investors to put their money in. Current environment and dynamics are extremely bullish for gold.
Gold bears retested bullish commitments at the important psychological 1800 price support and it got bought up quickly with the daily candle closing as a dragonfly doji 1810+. These are good signs for bullish continuation towards my second target of 1845. However, I expect we will remain rangebound 1800-1835 for some time until there is a catalyst or a 'black swan event' before we can break through and see much higher prices for gold. It is not the question 'if' we breakout, but 'when' we breakout.
Risk events that are coming up:
- ECB interest rate decision on Thursday
- PMI day on Friday
I remain bullish on gold, and buying dips remains my strategy. I will avoid selling gold before we see 1900-1920 at least (Target Zone 1).
Love and hugs,
Cesaro
EURUSD - Long Post Powell TestimonyPowell in his testimony to congress yesterday insisted that the rise in inflation which has seen US CPI reach 5.4% is transitory and that there would be no shift in monetary policy. The FED indicated that it would continue it's monthly asset purchases and didn't suggest that it would raise rates sooner then expected. We therefore anticipate EURUSD to keep moving higher despite the continued impact of the coronavirus on the Eurozone economy as the vaccine rollout wasn't as fast as in the US. However, we would not want to see prices consolidate below long term support around 1.17. We await key EU inflation data as well as US retail sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment tomorrow for any significant price action.
Did you sell the EURUSD?We had a great selling opportunity yesterday
Now it's too late!
We expect that this downside move will continue down to 1,1700, however we suggest that you stay away from selling.
Why?
-in best case scenario you get RRR of 1:1 and we're looking for a greater one
-price is heading down to a strong support which means we could see reversal at any time
-Powell is about to testify before the congress
-there is a better opportunity on another USD currency pair
Everyone who's got short trades from yesterday could move their SL just above 1,1850!
Follow us for more trading ideas!
Negative Rate Cut? Powell Wants a Correction $SPYThe markets are at a crucial spot and Powell is due for a decision soon... The chance of negative rates is low but definitely not out of the picture and if that happens, TLT will pump and HYG/IWM will dump (yes SPY too). Timing will be hard but the pressure is certainly building and is confirmed on the technical side of things.
$TLT tested a crucial level at $148.9 this last week which could signal weakness in the equity/bond market as well as the Dollar. Either A) things will spin out of control regarding Delta variant and TLT will breakout or we could see this melt-up continue for roughly 4-5 more months before seeing IWM and the rest of the market make its correction. If TLT were to fall the market could also very likely follow to the downside, this environment is choppy.
On the other hand, we watch IWM as it typically can signal weakness in the market via smaller cap companies. If the markets do correct, puts on IWM/HYG will pay beautifully. I'll give this 6 - 8 month then pop, otherwise my short position will get stopped and we could just continue to melt up until the next election. Also whether Crypto has it's one or two top cycle will play a part in all this as money will either transfer away or to the Crypto market (& possibly away from other markets).
It should go as followed If markets do correct to the downside:
1) TLT will breakout and possibly melt quickly as done in 2020 or flash crash. SPY/ETFs could see a gap down then trend up to retest as resistance
2) SPY will begin its bleed, IWM HYG leads the way to the downside.
3) Metals and Cryptos seem like they could move in sync. Cryptos might even lead the way. The one question I ask is if people sell out of both Cryptos and Stocks, where does their money go? Will this create the largest spending era or send us into a depression? Share your thoughts below
DCJ | Melt-Up or Short
Positional PlayA quick update to the Euro chart here after clearing the well known ECB positioning. This was the last thing we needed to mark a significant floor; anticipation of 1.176x (Strong Support) holding has clearly applied and for those building their own positions internally, protection is defined below March lows (1.168x) while targets above come into play at 1.217x and 1.250x.
Admittedly we overshot the wave (2) slightly more than I thought, however, as has already been mentioned in the previous chart(s), we were neither tracking buyers nor sellers, rather what was essential this time around in my books, was macro positioning. What was needed was a fresh and energetic low to draw participants in before enough time elapsed for the fundamental side to materialise. If we set aside for a moment, a quick recap of the previous chart for the new readers here, this is what we were previously tracking, to set into motion the "teeing" off.
So the positioning players now have picked their sides, buyers clearly are looking to make a freeing swing towards the 1.25xx handle and post their profits for the year, while sellers are now poorly positioned in terms of risk:reward, and those looking to breakdown need it to happen in such a way as to open the next leg lower in EURUSD in 2022 and beyond. In saying this, we must not get too far ahead, the move here we are tracking is a slingshot towards the topside with Dollar under severe pressure once more.
DXY: The following Story On this one, I will leave the time to tell if my analysis and drawings are accurate or not. DXY is going to retest the resistance then go a little bit down, then will eventually break the upper non-horizontal resistance to test the 92-round number and very strong resistance. Will the DXY break it ? I have a huge doubt as I'm not positive on USD since the Biden Administration is using a bad monetary policy. Will J. Powell be able to stabilize it ? I doubt since the inflation is coming no matter what will happen. 92 so is our final upper level before the bearish movement where we will look for sell setups. Trade safe !
EURUSD analysis | Key levelsYesterday EURUSD failed to break above previous high, showing us that price currently doesn't have enough strength to continue higher.
Now we have to see in which direction it will break out.
In case of a break above previous highs we would expect price testing the resistance up at 1,2000.
But if we see market below previous lows then we would expect price testing the 1,1800 level.
Right now, the best option is to wait before entering any new trades on this currency pair.
Don't forget that Powell will be holding a speech today!
XAUUSD 15M EntryMorning Traders,
Quick 15M entry here on Gold, the metal has been consolidating over the last 24 hours, most likely in preparation for the number of Fed speeches coming up this week including Chair Powell's speech this afternoon. The metal looks hesitant to move bearish or bullish after a strong week by the dollar last week, with the fed announcing interest hikes in 2023 (earlier than expected). After the USD strong finish to last week, the bulls retreated and avoided attempting to recover any lost ground. This week however the metal could make a bullish charge toward 1800 as the interest rate hike news dies down and reality hits many that the pandemic is still ongoing (though ending soon hopefully) and that we are still going to experience many more shocks and waves from the pandemic and government spending. The cliche of unprecedented times is never so evident as it is right now with US inflation surging and the S&P 500 hitting all time highs.
However, on the 15M chart we can see a false breakout of the 15 minute trend only to see the metal return within its trend lines, the metal broke the trend and pushed at 1785 for only an hour so before returning to the gradual climb we've seen over the start of this week. This may have dragged a few bulls into earlier than anticipated positions for the push towards 1800 but we are now seeing some reinforcing analysis on the opposite side of the trend with Gold breaking the lower trend line and pushing towards 1775 in the midst of the Asian session. We are sitting in the middle of another false breakout which is prime position to take up stance for the return to trend and a hoorah towards 1800 as we push for the psychological level and hope to turn the resistance to support.
The sheer fact that the hawkish turn by the fed has turned so many heads and created such volatility shows cloudiness within the markets and really highlights the weird and uncertain times that we are in. I feel the fed will turn towards caution after the market reaction and will urge caution within Fed powell's speech. This will ultimately drive us towards the 1800 mark as metals are safe havens during uncertainty and the suggestion of caution will only reiterate further confidence into the metal over the next few weeks.
Hope you enjoy and happy trading!
A trend trade opportunity on AUDUSDLast week we've had a clear downside move on AUDUSD.
Right now it looks like this move will continue and we're looking for a possible entry.
This could happen later on today.
We could consider a candlestick pattern formation inside of the zone as a good confirmation and this will give us our entry signal.
We're expecting another downside push and price breaking below the previous low.
The next support level is at 0,7430!
Don't forget that there is a Powell speech today!
S&P500 - Heading for a 10 - 20 % correctionS&P500 - Heading for a 10 - 20 % correction
The break of the trend line is a significant sign and one of the first signs of market crashes.
Gold stays on the road to 200-DMA support ahead of FOMCGold struggles for a clear direction, after a three-day south-run, during early Wednesday. Even so, the yellow metal stays on the bears’ radar while keeping the downside break of a 2.5-month-old support line, now resistance, around $1,860 by the press time. Hence, sellers are directed towards 200-day SMA (DMA) level near $1,840 during further downside. However, any more weakness past $1,840 depends upon today’s US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. Among them, a direct hint of tapering and/or rate hikes could be considered detrimental to gold prices.
On the contrary, a positive surprise from the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell & Company will help the quote portray a corrective pullback towards crossing the previous support line near $1,885. Though, gold bulls aren’t likely to be convinced until the quote stays below the yearly resistance line, around $1,908. In a case wherein gold prices offer a daily close beyond $1,908, a run-up to refresh yearly high near $1,960 can’t be ruled out.
ridethepig | NZD for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary - NZD for the Yearly Close
Here we are tracking the weak points in the structure which are strategically important points in every map. They are usually protected and once broken and be rewarding with non-stop moves. The handle to track here is 0.74xx which is well placed and comes to undertaking other duties of preventing the flow back towards 0.883x.
Now the early strength of this can be seen with the latest breakup, it is a monthly closing in drastic fashion - a veteran soldier ready to march. A breakdown in Dollar for 2021 is a 'good deed' for the rest of the world but actually we will cover a whole chapter around how it is the only monetary option. After a Biden victory we can expect them to rush through a digital dollar and trigger defaults, things will develop quickly so time to start paying attention for the 2021 flows now.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
SCARY DAY ! IF IT'S WEDNESDAY IT'S MAD!
Or
THE BRIDGE OF SighS !!!
The Fed, OPEC, BIDEN, COVID and the outside rain hit the same day. With the slogan roast the pastures, poison the fountains, scare the investors, the Bau Bau group above seems to have brought a total eclipse of daily optimism on the financial markets. From Crypto to metals, they all seem set for declines at today's opening, on the principle "head in the ground, the sword does not cut it", learned from the Service Ostrich. Google alone, the new owner of dream reports, seems to be successfully withstanding this fiery day.
Of course, a lot can change during the day, and especially after each event. But it is important to decrypt Powell and Biden's messages today, faster and better than an SRI did with the Russian spy.
And no matter how hard Powell tries to convince us that the rate is going up, and inflation is transient, the olfactory organ that grows more than Pinocchio is empty. We expect uncertainties until 9.30pm, when Powell's diction can impact indices, metals and of course EUR / USD.
Then comes Biden somewhere late at night, who armed with Tony Robbins 'books, and Houdini's will, will try to fool Congress into cutting a healthy slice of the Americans' ready money cake. I don't think it will succeed, at least not at the level mentioned in the press, but Piata is already more cautious than the law stipulates, only according to rumors. After all, if you ask for a block of flats, to get at least a 10-room villa, it seems like a solid strategy. Let's see where the pot closes.
Until another one, do you remember that suspension bridge through China, where, in addition to the infernal balance, the glass was breaking under your feet !? So is the sensation of the markets today. But just like at that bridge, in the end everything was just imagination, and you were safely at the opposite end.
After today's storm, I predict a quiet morning tomorrow. Green because it's spring. And what could be more enjoyable on a spring morning if not a collectible coffee. And a cigar eventually ... And profit in portfolios. So I'm free today. I let others shake their heads ...
We'll be talking tomorrow when I think we'll have .....
EVERYTHING GREEN !!!
Gold bears looking for a discount (Update)Hey guys,
Bulls defending their breakout this week, with a reasonable weekly close 1771+ (0.236 weekly fibo support) and within the bull channel. This still can develop as a bearflag towards 1680, so bullish caution remains important. Goldbears are known for their sudden & strong moves (they reminded us on Friday).
On the daily we see a nice impulse move to 1798 which retraced to the 0.236 fibo support (1772) and I expect a bullish continuation move next week towards 1805, 1820 and 1830 (0.382 weekly fibo resistance) from this level.
The upside is pretty much capped (for now) by the weekly 50 EMA with a large probability of a bearish reversal from 1820-1830. The green doji weekly candle signalling the next supply zone (strong resistance). Also we have a bearish 3-drive (H4 chart) and a Bearish Gartley waiting for us at that level. In the case of bearish continuation below 1765 on Monday, then we are looking at 1755-1745 support zone as the next cushion (0.618 fibo support).
Looking at fundamentals, we have Uncle Powell to shake up markets on Wednesday with EU GDP & US PCE data planned for Friday. My expectation is that we will have a bullish start of the week, with bulls working themselves up to the 1820 level and a grandfinale run on Wednesday to 1830. On Thursday we should start seeing bearish signals with some end of week & month profit taking to low 1800's.
On the weekly chart, there is a whole bowl of spaghetti in the 1780-1800 zone. It's important for bulls to close the coming week 1800+, else this will make the 1760 support, perhaps even lower, vulnerable for a bearish testdrive. In the case we close the week & month 1800+, bulls will print an engulfing monthly candle with more upside to be expected towards 1850 in May.
Is this the start of the 'rip your face-off' bull rally? We are about to find out next week!
Stay blue 😏,
Cesaro
Japanese yen flirting with 109The Japanese yen is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 108.74, down 0.09% on the day.
The Japanese yen remains vulnerable and the symbolic 109 level is under strong pressure. The dollar has had its way with the yen in 2021, as USD/JPY has jumped 5.5% this year. Last week, the pair climbed to 109.36, its highest level since June 2020. The yen is particularly sensitive to rate differentials between the US and Japan, so the increases in US yields are putting strong pressure on the Japanese currency. The 10-year Treasury yield enjoyed another strong week, rising to 1.72% on Friday. Although the 10-year bond has retreated to 1.67% on Monday, the trend remains positive for bonds, which likely spells more trouble for the shaky Japanese yen. This week has more than 100 billion dollars in government bond auctions, which will test the market's appetite for bonds following last week's Fed policy meeting.
In Japan, the equity markets are sharply lower after the BoJ widened its JGB trading band and tweaked its ETF guidance at its policy meeting on Friday. BoJ Governor Kuroda didn't surprise anyone when he said that monetary easing would continue for a long time. The bank has opted to make some tweaks rather than overhaul its monetary policy, and for this reason the bank's inflation target of 2 percent is likely to remain a bridge too far for the foreseeable future. Later, the bank releases BoJ Core CPI, its preferred inflation gauge (Tuesday, 5:00 GMT).
The market will be again paying close attention to the Federal Reserve this week. Later on Monday, Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel and we'll also hear from FOMC members today and on Tuesday. Powell will testify on Tuesday and Wednesday before Congress, together with Treasury Secretary Yellen. The topic of Powell's testimony is the CARE Act for Covid relief, but investors will be looking for any comments related to higher bond yields or inflation. Any remarks in this regard from Powell or Yellen could shake up the US dollar.
USD/JPY is currently range-bound. On the downside, the pair is putting pressure on support at 108.55. Close by, there is support at 108.20. There is resistance at 109.30, followed by resistance at 109.70
AUDUSD: Weekly Uncertainty AUDUSD has failed to break the so called resistance and a trendline is forming thus we will wait for a 3rd touch to form and possibly sell on it's break downward. Moreover, fibonacci levels are precisely respected. Will it succeed in breaking the uptrend ? Remember that this one could be in a corrective wave before the storm as the USD can possibly be failing following a bad economy management.
If you like the idea, support us with a like and a follow
Trade safe !
MacroForex
Battle of the BondsA good rule of thumb is that when investors are confused they transfer to cash. Investors become confused when they get contradictory signals.
Signal one; 10-year yields. They're going up, but not in a smooth orderly line; in fits and starts. Every week we get a 10 basis point jump. This is because every time the Chair of the federal Reserve gets on TV, he let's it be known that he's not just expecting to see inflation above 2%; he's actively trying to get there.
Signal two; EU self-sabotaging vaccine efforts. In what can only be described as one of the goofiest screw-ups in political theater, Germany abruptly decided that fringe occurrences of blood clotting - a very preventable event in most since the invention of aspirin - was more important than the lives of people who need the vaccine and their GDP, so they canned the Oxford vaccine. Other weak-kneed leaders followed suit and we get signal three.
Signal three; oil collapse Introduce the possibility of EU's vaccination efforts taking a little extra time and voila; oil is back to March 1 prices. Congrats. Go buy it now, because if there's one thing that inflation is really going to set in on, it's oil, and this Vaccine scare is a joke so it's on sale for a bit. Anyhow, this rapid deflationary event is one of those mixed signals. If the bond market is quickly trying to factor in inflation, yet the oil market is trying to factor in a drastic drop in anticipated demand, what gives.
Granted some of those events are foreign while the inflationary anticipation is more domestic, in the broader market - the market that the big money operates in - this is a confusing signal. One piece of the market saying economic activity is ramping up, and the other saying that it's delayed (and JPow saying that he will not settle for anything less than 2% inflation or more).
So what does this mean for you, the lowly SPY trader? Welp, who knows? It really depends on if these two elements of the market both stabilize tomorrow and Powell keeps his mount shut. In the near term, I expect a pretty rapid leg up again, and I don't think $400 is out of the question for the next few days. But I've highlighted the flow ocillator that shows an eerily similar pattern to our last bath. What is different is that the MAC-ZVWAP is much more virulent than it was a few weeks ago, suggesting that any dip would be brief.
If you're looking for advice - which this is not investment advise just entertainment - it would be to be nimble and not be scared to buy if we it the 20 day ema tomorrow morning, but avoid if we reach it in the afternoon. Also don't be afraid to short. Or don't be afraid to sit this one out.