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Do not trade before PowellToday we expect Powell's press-conference which at Jackson Hole. This will definitely affect price and provide us with some trading opportunities. However, short-term positions prior to that are quite risky. If you're looking for any day trading opportunities, I would suggest that you wait for that press-conference first. Before that we could see price trading in both directions. Our expectations are still the same. We think that we could see possible reversals in the zone of 1,1788-1,1828. We will be watching each candle inside of this zone for a possible entry signal. In case price begins a downside move, then the key level will be 1,1723. If market goes below it, then that would confirm our idea. You could also use this level to add to your position. The main target is still 1,1640. Follow our daily analysis to see how this setup will develop!
Short
by ForexTrendline
18
Gold & Jackson HoleHello traders and welcome to the grand finale event of the year. Jackson Hole We are nearing the Jackson Hole speech by Jerome Powell, where he will lay the groundwork of the FED's monetary policy & strategy. Jackson Hole is extra important this year, as traders and investors are expecting a change of strategy by the FED for the coming year. The FED-cartel Powell himself has been mildly dovish, but his sidekick Bullard has been vocally hawkish in his interviews. Usually the FED-President uses his sidekick to send a signal to the market before the real decisions will be announced. Clarida & Kaplan on the other hand had a change of heart by suggesting to wait with tapering until the effects of the new delta-variant become more clear. The situation can't get more confusing. What to look out for? Traders will be looking out for clues from Powell on tapering the unprecedented bond-buying program. Most likely Powell will remain vague (as we know him), but he might start giving a timeschedule on when he plans to start slowing down the bond-buying with the first 40 billion a month. The expectation is that the FED will remain supporting the market with 80 billion dollars per month (currently 120 billion per month) until end of next year. Technicals We are nearing the 1815-1820 (1st major resistance) and the 2nd major resistance (1830-1835) in a bearflag formation that broke on Wednesday. Next to the bearflag there is also a Head & Shoulders and an H4 Bearish Gartley pattern developing that is aiming for the $1725 major support. We are also still below the daily deathcross and this is a strong bearish signal for gold, while the DXY is operating in a daily golden cross. Buy or Sell? The big question for many. My personal opinion is to stay out of the market until the situation calms down and see how the market will digest the event after the weekend. While this is still a gamble, I do think the gold bears are in charge below 1830. If you want to take the gamble, then I would say a short has a higher risk:return ratio currently. Tomorrow we will get the answer. Good luck and may the blue pips be on your side. Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CesaroPelucci
1
Jackson Hole and Eur-UsdIt is only a day away from the start of the central bankers' symposium on Thursday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Jerome Powell has already been making it clear to the markets for several days that the Federal Reserve's stimulus plan is coming to an end. Stop with the ultra-accommodating policy, zero-cost money and massive purchases of government bonds (120 billion a month): it is time for tapering. The markets did not react positively. However, as the days passed (two days, in fact), investors realised that the Fed will not allow a stock market crash, creating chaos. So yesterday, the S&P500 index has once again touched its all-time high. What is on the horizon is a split between the Fed and the ECB. After years of walking arm in arm in the name of growth and the fight against inflation, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are about to part ways. With GDP at 6.5%, a steadily improving labour market and, above all, inflation already above 5%, the Fed is preparing to reduce stimulus. On an economic level, monetary tightening means that access to credit will become a little more expensive and thus less money will be available for families to consume and businesses to invest. As far as the currency market is concerned, all this translates into a strengthening of the dollar. There is some concern, especially because of Covid-19, which is far from being averted also because of its variants. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed her fears in a letter to Congress, in which she warned that the Delta variant of the virus could damage the economy. On the other side of the Atlantic, the ECB has no intention of changing its stimulus plan and rates will remain at zero for a long time to come, as Christine Lagarde confirmed when answering journalists' questions at the ECB's latest meeting, “there is still a long way to go before the damage to the economy caused by the pandemic is offset” and again, “none of us would want to tighten prematurely.” The only thing that remains to be seen is the timing of the Fed's tapering, most likely before the end of the year. Now, quickly a look at Eur-Usd to try to understand what could be the future scenario of the currency pair. Above, you can see the chart with the most important levels highlighted. If what is written above is confirmed and the US will set a date for the start of tapering, then for Eur-Usd the doors of decline will open wide. In this case, I don't think the rebound will continue any further. If there will be hesitations, second thoughts, and only hypotheses and ideas understudy, then I think that Eur-Usd can continue to rise with first targets 1.17800, 1.18200 and 1.18750/1.19250 area. So, from tomorrow, eyes on the symposium in Jackson Hole.
by TradingwDavid
Powell's taper comments coming-up: Potential scalp opportunitiesI have set-out my logic in prior posts of how I am exiting the SP500 market from prior longs bought more than 18 months ago - by selling into rallies. If an infrastructure deal goes ahead and debt ceiling issues are dealt to successfully, I will reconsider my current stance. However, I am happy to scalp particularly from needless / senseless market over-reactions for short term scalp trading opportunities. We may see an opportunity coming up with Powell and the Jackson Hole meeting coming up. My rationale set-out below: - tapering is simply a reduction in the Fed's open market operations (OMO) whereby treasuries are purchased from dealers (secondary market) with the result being that cash from trader's is deposited into the Banking system. This cash is also known as reserves ( Refer blue Histogram ) - The effect of this QE style OMO is to strip credit interest out of the non-government sector that would have otherwise been paid to holders of treasuries as one form of money (treasurites) is replaced with another form (Bank cash / reserves). - the banking system is 'pull system' , not a 'push system'. Banks need capital to make loans; not deposits as the Fed, like all Reserve Banks, they act as lender of last resort. Stuffing the banking system full of cash does not benefit Banks, rather it makes regulatory capital management harder for Banks and produces scarcity of interest bearing securities, with downward pressure on rates. - to offset some of this effect, reverse repos have been employed by the Fed as a 'temporary' measure - but is its like a senseless merry-go-round. Why am I saying all of this? - where you have record high fiscal growth supporting a market (risks looming in the background - debt ceiling), and potentially needless market panic regarding the word 'taper', which is actually positive not negative for the market, then that's a great short term buy opportunity to scalp back to the mean. What level will I buy at: I would like to buy around the cost basis of swing traders which is marked on the chart and which represents around 20% market capitalization. I will be checking out my Market Risk indicator which looks at a range of factors including futures spreads for a potential long scalp trade. Instead, call writing maybe your go-to strategy here instead but there's not much Vol to sell (yet!) #MMT
AMEX:SPY
by Adam-Cox
Shorts covering quicklyThe evolutionary break of 1.260x unlocked the floodgates and buyers successfully captured the higher high. But the revolutionary attack would not be complete without capitulation and be as follows: 1. Taking 1.295x (there is no question of having broken above July 19th highs, since sellers have given up a lot of ground for it, will unlock a test of 1.331x as a minimum flow 2. Using 1.317x for reference. The idea behind this attack, as clear from this example, consists of forcibly clearing a way through the defences to unlock a momentum move. Here sellers themselves have to cover their positions, so that triggers the cascading and comradeship. All we need to concentrate our forces on, is attacking if above 1.295x, till then we can continue sitting on our hands in a neutral position if not already loaded from below. Amongst other things, we also need to consider the forcible breakdown in Oil to $57 which will can add fuel to the attack.
Long
by ridethepig
1
Lines in the sand for DollarIt seems a timely choice to update the dollar chart. Extending the characteristic positioning in the previous euro chart, seems to me to be more in accordance with the needs of 93.75 - 94.00 holding and acting as a reliable guardian for the remainder of August and September, but the threat to an attack higher is real. In the DXY chart, buyers will need to make good use of the whitespace above as an attacking battlefield. Things are quite different in the ladder between 95-96, where we are talking of the complex change in nature from corrective to impulsive; in fact we must consider both possibilities as valid in their characteristics From a geopolitical risk perspective, the task of sellers defending the 94 handle is also complex, buyers can see the problem of restraint they are having and could aggressively rush to USD, moving DXY higher with a hint of more risk (Afghanistan, Taiwan etc). With all that said, the long term structural decline of the West looks underway with migration Eastward. This will be a multi year/decade long process as long as Dems are at the helm. My impression is as follows; we are trading towards the top end of the range, here actively looking for opps to trade 93.7x/94.0x => 90.6x. This C leg can extend as high as 95.4x and still be valid. Invalidation and reassessment of the view will only be required above 96.3x.
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
38
Pacific Gas & Electric Price Prediction for Second Half of 2021***THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. DO YOU OWN RESEARCH AND FORM YOUR OWN CONCLUSIONS.*** Historical Preface: Having just come off an update on policy from a (un-surprisingly) hawkish federal reserve, it's been said that rates are unlikely to rise precipitously until 2023. The news of unlikely tapering sent many of the utilities stocks into a sharp short-term decline. I do predict these severe declines to be short term and utilities ($PCG included) will soon return to their established trends. For PG&E, the established trend is bearish. Prediction: My prediction for the remainder of the summer is the stock will likely struggle downward until it finds strong support around $9.00-$9.05 (see trended chart below). This downward pressure is a result of investors seeking ever higher returns in more speculative sectors throughout the summer. The less "sexy" sectors (Energy and Utilities) will likely languish until Fall. I also think the perception of Utilities has suffered since PG&E's and ERCOT's most recent gaffs; deserved or otherwise. ESG minded investors are avoiding these equities on a principled basis rather than financial. I anticipate this trend to eventually fade. I will continue to add to my position at the $9.25-$9.30. Once a new strong support level is found I expect a quick, multi-week bull run to $15.00 during the last part of the year. I don't foresee prices exceeding $20.00 in 2021. Pervasive Risks: The location of PG&E's service area remains its biggest and most obvious risk. Most will cite the indebtedness as PG&E's largest negative mark but I don't consider this the case since the debt structure is understood and the re-payment plan is well defined. PG&E's location in California's most arid region will dominate the future risk of investing with this company. Obviously, there's little PG&E can do to rectify the issues introduced within its service area. These same challenges would be faced by any utility who exists in this location and the service outcomes would likely be the same. But, the companies leaders are taking steps to better alleviate concerns of future wildfire liabilities. Future Confidence: I like that PG&E understands its locational challenges and is working to mitigate them. Though I work in the Electrical utility industry, I don't know how the problems posed can be easily or cheaply addressed beyond better maintenance programs. PG&E seems to understand their position on that front is fragile and they need help finding other ways to meet their challenges; even if they don't understand what those challenges precisely are or how to mitigate them. This makes the close work they're doing with Palantir a very bullish indicator of PG&E's future success. Final Remarks: I remain very bullish in the long term.
NYSE:PCGLong
by forever_green
Special Gold pre-NFP UpdateGoodmorning traders and welcome to the most important day of the rest of the month. It is exactly 1 year ago when gold made its all time high at $2075. The FED has two targets to raise interest rates and start tapering. The first is inflation above the 2% target per year (currently sits around 3.5%), so that is a check. ✅ The second is that the labor market gets going again, which is not the case thus far. Today might change that: 🔹 If NFP rises above 870k (whispers are talking about 1 million+ jobs), then we will see a strong $100 bearish move on gold before the end of month. 🔹If NFP comes in as expected between 800k and 900k, gold will test the 1790 support zone and we remain in the month long range 1790-1835 until Jackson Hole. 🔹If we see NFP coming in between 600k-800k, gold will surely test the 1830 resistance zone, with an extension to 1850. 🔹Below 600k and it is game over for the gold bears and gold is ready for a rocket to 1900. Arguments For Stronger Non-Farm Payrolls • Employment component of ISM Non-Manufacturing rises to 53.8 from 49.3 • Employment component of ISM Manufacturing rises to 52.9 from 49.9 • Challenger job cuts drop to 21-year low • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rises to 85.5 • Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index hits pandemic high • Continuing Claims fall to pre-pandemic lows Arguments for Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls • ADP drops to 330,000 from 680,000 • Jobless claims have been missing forecast in the whole month of July and kept rising 🔮 My personal expectation is that NFP will miss the forecast and come in between 750k-850k and we remain ranging between 1790-1835 for the rest of the month. However, we can not ignore the charts and currently we have broken the bearflag and the daily is on the verge of creating a deathcross. All to played out in a few hours. Goodluck, and keep your TP's close but your SL's closer.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CesaroPelucci
6
Gold - Long Post FEDGold has continued it's upward momentum and consolidated above resistance at $1821 after yesterday's FED meeting. Powell gave no indication on when the FED would start tapering or to what extent as despite progress with regards to employment and inflation goals it was suggested that additional improvements would be required. This led to Gold surging and we believe the precious metal could move higher and reach multi month highs about $1900 in the coming weeks. Today GDP growth rate came in at 6.5% vs 8.5% forecast and initial jobless claims cam in at 400K vs 380K forecast. Additionally, tomorrow we await PCE price index and Michigan consumer sentiment for any significant price action.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by KQMarkets
BTC Bullish Pennant and Bullish Engulfing Candle PT $46kBTC is currently in a Bullish Pennant and a breakout here would have an upside target of $46k if it breaks out to upside successfully. There are some key catalysts atm as Powell is giving a speech that is largely dovish at this very moment and could help BTC break out to upside of this current formation. We just closed a 1H Bullish Engulfing candle with high volume (confirmation of candle's continuation intent) as well. DXY has been puking the entire time Powell has been speaking too.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ich1baN
2
BTC Headed to $42-44k to touch Downtrend LineIt's clear that BTC is headed higher but how much higher? With the onset of all the signs on the wall that Powell will assuredly delay tapering bond purchases which were originally supposed to occur sometime in 1H 2022, the macro thematic picture couldn't get more bullish for BTC ... all the while the SP500 is headed to 4600 by year end and the inflation combo are helping to create major tailwinds for bitcoin. Additionally, I have an analysis on the bearish structure the DXY is in and how it's likely headed to the 2014 lows (Obama Era levels). I only view inflation as a temporary issue from supply chain constraints but the other element in the picture is the fiscal and monetary policy. The US congress is about to push through a major multi-trillion dollar Infrastructure bill. Additionally, the debt ceiling will be lifted at the same time, and J Powell is about to get a lot more dovish with China's stock market in the midst of a major retracement. Lastly, there is a LIVE bill (HR 4451) introduced by Congressman Emmer with bipartisan support from Soto and others which seeks to eliminate painpoints for crypot and blockchain technology from a regulatory perspective. The bill is called the Securities Clarity Act and it aims to stop calling crypto companies securities giving FULL clarity for investors and project devs to go full steam ahead. You can read more about that bill which will be voted on in the next weeks once it is released from committee: emmer.house.gov FaceBook Diem - FB will be making headlines about their major stablecoin project - Diem - any day as Yellen pounds the table to get regulations in place before this event happens. It is my view that FB and the US Government have been coordinating which is why Yellen changed her tone from slight negative to slight positive on crypto. They want to have some guardrails in place before FB releases Diem b/c overnight at least 340 million people in the US will have access to a US digital dollar stablecoin through a social app. This is massively bullish as it shows the Fed / Treasury / SEC / CFTC are all onboard with allowing crypto thrive for the time being. Elon Musk - Elon's B Word Conference appearance was more than just theatrics this time around. The guy confirmed he genuinely believes in crypto and put all haters to rest. He even shocked the world by announcing SpaceX owns BTC on its Balance Sheet - something no one expected. Additionally, Elon has much bigger plans for crypto imo likely involving SolarCity and decentralized mining with unused power from batteries. This is a longer-term vision but clearly Elon wants to be heavily involved in the space and wants to help develop decentralized money for the people. Amazon - although the rumors about Amazon were denied by the company, it's unlikely they aren't true considering Amazon confirmed the rumor partially by saying they are exploring cryptocurrencies and bringing the newest tech to their customers. This is confirmed by the job board posting which isn't for a dev or lower level position but a Blockchain Executive - someone who will be in the Exec Suite of AWS... this is very big news b/c this single person will be responsible for steering AMZN into crypto and it will happen - just a matter of when not if.... I'd say chances are good by year end still. Macro-thematic Reasons to be Bullish J Powell delaying tapering bond purchases SP500 headed to 4600 by year-end (supported by several Elliott Wave analyses) Further weakening of DXY by year end Inflation from Fiscal and dovish Monetary policy Major Deficit spending by Congress with the Infrastructure Bill US Congressmen sponsoring bipartisan bill to deem cryptos separate from securities so investors and developers have green light to innovate FaceBook Diem to be announced in coming days after the sudden switch of HQs from Switzerland back to the US - hint that FB's legal team has regulatory clarity in the US Elon Musk accepting BTC again for Tesla payments Elon having wider plans for crypto than anyone imagined since SpaceX owns BTC on its balance sheet too AMZN working on crypto payments All of this combined BTC should trend higher over next few days to $44k and I expect there to be at least some resistance there and then we will retrace for another chance to buy in before a wave higher.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ich1baN
3
Gold bulls' revenge will be sweet (Update 3)Hi guys, After a well-deserved holiday, a week of acclimatising at home and adapting to current market dynamics, it's time to make some serious bucks from the market. First things first, I want to thank all my followers for following my trading adventure for over a year now. Now onto the meat and potatoes. What is happening in the market? It seems the market is losing it and all correlations that have been in place for months (if not years) are thrown out of the window. Silver up/gold down and vice versa, dollar up/gold up, US10Y down/dollar up. Totally irrational behaviour and when this happens, you know shit is about to hit the fan. This should not surprise anyone, because everything looks like a big bubble that is about to burst. The housing market, commodity prices, equities and other asset classes are trading at extremely high levels which have not seen before. Many respected analysts such as Jeremy Grantham (who has a proven trackrecord on bubble recognition) have voiced their deepest concerns about current market conditions and dynamics. With annualized monthly inflation running as high as 11%, real growth and the jobmarket not looking to improve, the stagflation ghost of the 1970-1980's is just around the corner. Stagflation is the magic word that will make gold propel to higher grounds and it is only since a week or two that analysts dare to pronounce the word in the respected media outlets. But before we see strong bullish PA on gold, we still have some time to kill. FOMC is planned on Wednesday and this is a key risk event for the market and gold in particular. After the big sell-off of June, where gold tumled more than $150, Powell turned dovish in front of the Senate and reiterated that it is too soon to raise interest rates and start tapering. I do not expect Powell to turn away from the script or give a timeline next Wednesday on tapering, but I do expect we will see a $20-$30 sell-off towards $1780-$1785, providing gold bulls with a fresh new entry for $1900+. August will be a hot summer month for precious metals in the lead-up to the Jackson Hole Symposium that is planned in the last week of August, and I am expecting NFP being the trigger for the bull rally. It is yet to be seen what will happen in Q4, but I am expecting some profit taking towards the yearly Christmas rally in December where I expect gold to make new all time highs in Q1 2022. I can not repeat enough that current market conditions and dynamics are extremely bullish for gold and buying on dips is the way to go, don't get noised out by the small bearish candles you see. You do not want to be on the wrong side when gold starts another $200 bull rally. COT-report is bullish and large speculators are losing their shorts and adding buys for 4 weeks in a row. Good luck and may the blue pips be on your side. Love and hugs, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
4
Gold bulls' revenge will be sweet (Update 2)Hi guys, The Delta Corona variant is stealing headlines around the world and equities got smashed down yesterday pretty hard. Crypto seems to be getting a beating too along the way and it is not looking pretty in the market. Gold is keeping up pretty well (unlike Silver which is hammered down just as everything else). Time for a follow up on my last chart. Last week we hit my first target of 1835 after the CPI numbers got released and dovish comments by Powell. The inflation is getting uncontrollable with the annualized montly figures hitting almost 11%. These are record breaking numbers we have not seen since the 1980's. With US10 yields also getting hammered down to below 1.2%, gold and the dollar seem to be the favorable instruments for traders and investors to put their money in. Current environment and dynamics are extremely bullish for gold. Gold bears retested bullish commitments at the important psychological 1800 price support and it got bought up quickly with the daily candle closing as a dragonfly doji 1810+. These are good signs for bullish continuation towards my second target of 1845. However, I expect we will remain rangebound 1800-1835 for some time until there is a catalyst or a 'black swan event' before we can break through and see much higher prices for gold. It is not the question 'if' we breakout, but 'when' we breakout. Risk events that are coming up: - ECB interest rate decision on Thursday - PMI day on Friday I remain bullish on gold, and buying dips remains my strategy. I will avoid selling gold before we see 1900-1920 at least (Target Zone 1). Love and hugs, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
2
EURUSD - Long Post Powell TestimonyPowell in his testimony to congress yesterday insisted that the rise in inflation which has seen US CPI reach 5.4% is transitory and that there would be no shift in monetary policy. The FED indicated that it would continue it's monthly asset purchases and didn't suggest that it would raise rates sooner then expected. We therefore anticipate EURUSD to keep moving higher despite the continued impact of the coronavirus on the Eurozone economy as the vaccine rollout wasn't as fast as in the US. However, we would not want to see prices consolidate below long term support around 1.17. We await key EU inflation data as well as US retail sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment tomorrow for any significant price action.
Long
by KQMarkets
Did you sell the EURUSD?We had a great selling opportunity yesterday Now it's too late! We expect that this downside move will continue down to 1,1700, however we suggest that you stay away from selling. Why? -in best case scenario you get RRR of 1:1 and we're looking for a greater one -price is heading down to a strong support which means we could see reversal at any time -Powell is about to testify before the congress -there is a better opportunity on another USD currency pair Everyone who's got short trades from yesterday could move their SL just above 1,1850! Follow us for more trading ideas!
Short
by ForexTrendline
16
Negative Rate Cut? Powell Wants a Correction $SPYThe markets are at a crucial spot and Powell is due for a decision soon... The chance of negative rates is low but definitely not out of the picture and if that happens, TLT will pump and HYG/IWM will dump (yes SPY too). Timing will be hard but the pressure is certainly building and is confirmed on the technical side of things. $TLT tested a crucial level at $148.9 this last week which could signal weakness in the equity/bond market as well as the Dollar. Either A) things will spin out of control regarding Delta variant and TLT will breakout or we could see this melt-up continue for roughly 4-5 more months before seeing IWM and the rest of the market make its correction. If TLT were to fall the market could also very likely follow to the downside, this environment is choppy. On the other hand, we watch IWM as it typically can signal weakness in the market via smaller cap companies. If the markets do correct, puts on IWM/HYG will pay beautifully. I'll give this 6 - 8 month then pop, otherwise my short position will get stopped and we could just continue to melt up until the next election. Also whether Crypto has it's one or two top cycle will play a part in all this as money will either transfer away or to the Crypto market (& possibly away from other markets). It should go as followed If markets do correct to the downside: 1) TLT will breakout and possibly melt quickly as done in 2020 or flash crash. SPY/ETFs could see a gap down then trend up to retest as resistance 2) SPY will begin its bleed, IWM HYG leads the way to the downside. 3) Metals and Cryptos seem like they could move in sync. Cryptos might even lead the way. The one question I ask is if people sell out of both Cryptos and Stocks, where does their money go? Will this create the largest spending era or send us into a depression? Share your thoughts below DCJ | Melt-Up or Short
AMEX:HYGShort
by DotcomJack
2
Positional PlayA quick update to the Euro chart here after clearing the well known ECB positioning. This was the last thing we needed to mark a significant floor; anticipation of 1.176x (Strong Support) holding has clearly applied and for those building their own positions internally, protection is defined below March lows (1.168x) while targets above come into play at 1.217x and 1.250x. Admittedly we overshot the wave (2) slightly more than I thought, however, as has already been mentioned in the previous chart(s), we were neither tracking buyers nor sellers, rather what was essential this time around in my books, was macro positioning. What was needed was a fresh and energetic low to draw participants in before enough time elapsed for the fundamental side to materialise. If we set aside for a moment, a quick recap of the previous chart for the new readers here, this is what we were previously tracking, to set into motion the "teeing" off. So the positioning players now have picked their sides, buyers clearly are looking to make a freeing swing towards the 1.25xx handle and post their profits for the year, while sellers are now poorly positioned in terms of risk:reward, and those looking to breakdown need it to happen in such a way as to open the next leg lower in EURUSD in 2022 and beyond. In saying this, we must not get too far ahead, the move here we are tracking is a slingshot towards the topside with Dollar under severe pressure once more.
Long
by ridethepig
17
DXY: The following Story On this one, I will leave the time to tell if my analysis and drawings are accurate or not. DXY is going to retest the resistance then go a little bit down, then will eventually break the upper non-horizontal resistance to test the 92-round number and very strong resistance. Will the DXY break it ? I have a huge doubt as I'm not positive on USD since the Biden Administration is using a bad monetary policy. Will J. Powell be able to stabilize it ? I doubt since the inflation is coming no matter what will happen. 92 so is our final upper level before the bearish movement where we will look for sell setups. Trade safe !
TVC:DXY
by Therealsmaira
EURUSD analysis | Key levelsYesterday EURUSD failed to break above previous high, showing us that price currently doesn't have enough strength to continue higher. Now we have to see in which direction it will break out. In case of a break above previous highs we would expect price testing the resistance up at 1,2000. But if we see market below previous lows then we would expect price testing the 1,1800 level. Right now, the best option is to wait before entering any new trades on this currency pair. Don't forget that Powell will be holding a speech today!
by ForexTrendline
5
XAUUSD 15M EntryMorning Traders, Quick 15M entry here on Gold, the metal has been consolidating over the last 24 hours, most likely in preparation for the number of Fed speeches coming up this week including Chair Powell's speech this afternoon. The metal looks hesitant to move bearish or bullish after a strong week by the dollar last week, with the fed announcing interest hikes in 2023 (earlier than expected). After the USD strong finish to last week, the bulls retreated and avoided attempting to recover any lost ground. This week however the metal could make a bullish charge toward 1800 as the interest rate hike news dies down and reality hits many that the pandemic is still ongoing (though ending soon hopefully) and that we are still going to experience many more shocks and waves from the pandemic and government spending. The cliche of unprecedented times is never so evident as it is right now with US inflation surging and the S&P 500 hitting all time highs. However, on the 15M chart we can see a false breakout of the 15 minute trend only to see the metal return within its trend lines, the metal broke the trend and pushed at 1785 for only an hour so before returning to the gradual climb we've seen over the start of this week. This may have dragged a few bulls into earlier than anticipated positions for the push towards 1800 but we are now seeing some reinforcing analysis on the opposite side of the trend with Gold breaking the lower trend line and pushing towards 1775 in the midst of the Asian session. We are sitting in the middle of another false breakout which is prime position to take up stance for the return to trend and a hoorah towards 1800 as we push for the psychological level and hope to turn the resistance to support. The sheer fact that the hawkish turn by the fed has turned so many heads and created such volatility shows cloudiness within the markets and really highlights the weird and uncertain times that we are in. I feel the fed will turn towards caution after the market reaction and will urge caution within Fed powell's speech. This will ultimately drive us towards the 1800 mark as metals are safe havens during uncertainty and the suggestion of caution will only reiterate further confidence into the metal over the next few weeks. Hope you enjoy and happy trading!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by KaineArkinson1
A trend trade opportunity on AUDUSDLast week we've had a clear downside move on AUDUSD. Right now it looks like this move will continue and we're looking for a possible entry. This could happen later on today. We could consider a candlestick pattern formation inside of the zone as a good confirmation and this will give us our entry signal. We're expecting another downside push and price breaking below the previous low. The next support level is at 0,7430! Don't forget that there is a Powell speech today!
Short
by ForexTrendline
2