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AUDUSD: Weekly Uncertainty AUDUSD has failed to break the so called resistance and a trendline is forming thus we will wait for a 3rd touch to form and possibly sell on it's break downward. Moreover, fibonacci levels are precisely respected. Will it succeed in breaking the uptrend ? Remember that this one could be in a corrective wave before the storm as the USD can possibly be failing following a bad economy management. If you like the idea, support us with a like and a follow Trade safe ! MacroForex
by Therealsmaira
Battle of the BondsA good rule of thumb is that when investors are confused they transfer to cash. Investors become confused when they get contradictory signals. Signal one; 10-year yields. They're going up, but not in a smooth orderly line; in fits and starts. Every week we get a 10 basis point jump. This is because every time the Chair of the federal Reserve gets on TV, he let's it be known that he's not just expecting to see inflation above 2%; he's actively trying to get there. Signal two; EU self-sabotaging vaccine efforts. In what can only be described as one of the goofiest screw-ups in political theater, Germany abruptly decided that fringe occurrences of blood clotting - a very preventable event in most since the invention of aspirin - was more important than the lives of people who need the vaccine and their GDP, so they canned the Oxford vaccine. Other weak-kneed leaders followed suit and we get signal three. Signal three; oil collapse Introduce the possibility of EU's vaccination efforts taking a little extra time and voila; oil is back to March 1 prices. Congrats. Go buy it now, because if there's one thing that inflation is really going to set in on, it's oil, and this Vaccine scare is a joke so it's on sale for a bit. Anyhow, this rapid deflationary event is one of those mixed signals. If the bond market is quickly trying to factor in inflation, yet the oil market is trying to factor in a drastic drop in anticipated demand, what gives. Granted some of those events are foreign while the inflationary anticipation is more domestic, in the broader market - the market that the big money operates in - this is a confusing signal. One piece of the market saying economic activity is ramping up, and the other saying that it's delayed (and JPow saying that he will not settle for anything less than 2% inflation or more). So what does this mean for you, the lowly SPY trader? Welp, who knows? It really depends on if these two elements of the market both stabilize tomorrow and Powell keeps his mount shut. In the near term, I expect a pretty rapid leg up again, and I don't think $400 is out of the question for the next few days. But I've highlighted the flow ocillator that shows an eerily similar pattern to our last bath. What is different is that the MAC-ZVWAP is much more virulent than it was a few weeks ago, suggesting that any dip would be brief. If you're looking for advice - which this is not investment advise just entertainment - it would be to be nimble and not be scared to buy if we it the 20 day ema tomorrow morning, but avoid if we reach it in the afternoon. Also don't be afraid to short. Or don't be afraid to sit this one out.
AMEX:SPY
by PreferredStonk
6
USDCHF break after FOMCOn Wednesday, we saw the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged until the end of 2023. This led to a low in price of the USD everywhere, but only within an hour. Then we see a rise again in USDCHF. We are currently in a downward movement of H1, as the resistance trend line has been broken. The levels before the start of Powell's press conference were also broken. This allows us to expect that the upward movement will have the strength to continue. In order to receive confirmation, the price must break the previous peak! In case of a breakout we expect an increase to 0.9352 and 0.9408! LIKE AND COMMENT - this is how you help us!
Long
by ForexTrendline
4
EURUSD before Fed Tonight we are expecting a Fed Interest Rate Decision! No change in the interest rate is expected, but there will be movement! Jerome Powell's comments at the press conference will be extremely important! After today, many opportunities will be sought based on this news. We are looking for a higher probability in advance and we have expectations. Our expectations, as we have commented, are for a strong USD On H1 from yesterday we also have a lower bottom, which allows us to expect that the price will continue to 1.1836. Close above 1.1955 will be critical to the analysis If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us! To support us, like and comment!
Short
by ForexTrendline
USD remains strong!As we mentioned in yesterday's analysis, we saw an important day for the USD. After Jerome Powell's speech, the dollar rose everywhere. Did we expect it? See our latest analysis: AUDUSD EURGBP USDJPY Now the NFP data is coming! We expect to see a continuation of EURUSD to 1.1917! The resistance zone is 1.1996-1.2020. And the minimum stop is over 1.2055! If you have questions about how to trade this or that situation, contact us! To support us, please like and comment
Short
by ForexTrendline
4
EUR/USD - Battle of the Head & ShouldersIt's been a few weeks since EUR/USD broke below the neckline of its head and shoulders and the response since has been a little sluggish, to say the least. The trend was starting to look very favourable for the dollar as it enjoyed a bit of a resurgence, taking out the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern in the process. Since then, it came back and tested a cluster of moving averages - 55/89 SMA band on the daily chart and 200/233 SMA band on the 4-hour chart - as well as key fib levels. This wasn't a big concern, retracements are normal and they are standard rotation points after a breakout. Since then, we've seen further resistance to the breakout and the 200/233 band on the 4-hour chart has fallen. This isn't a gamechanger, but I would say it's a red flag. The key fib zones remain in place and the 55/89 daily SMA continues to hold. As long as this is the case, the head and shoulders breakout remains valid. The concern is that an inverse head and shoulders has now formed on the 4-hour chart in the midst of all the volatility. The neckline of this isn't as clear as the one on the daily chart but what is clear is that a break above 1.22 doesn't bode well for the initial formation on the daily chart. And in fact, it could be quite a bullish signal for the pair. At the moment, it's still in tact and during his first testimony in the Senate, Powell hasn't changed that. But we're now at a critical level and things could become a lot clearer very soon.
by OANDA
2
Stocks Waiting on PowellStocks really took a dive today. It seems the S&P is fearful of what Fed Chair Powell may have to say today. Recall that part of the reason that stocks are selling off is that due to increased bond yields, investors are fearful of higher interest rates, which would dampen the easy money party that stocks have been enjoying for years. We are at a support level right now of 3847, which has further support from the intersection of a trend line and the psychological level of 3850. It is highly likely we will see a bit of support here, and it looks like we are catching a meager bounce at least. The Kovach OBV is bearish, and the Chande is turning over so both indicators are not looking too hot for stocks right now. If we break down further, watch 3825, and if we are able to break out, we will find resistance at 3887.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Will we see a new decline in gold?From the beginning of the year, a downtrend in H4 gold began. It represents a correction of the rise in 2020. And the main question always, is it time to buy or will we see another drop? It will become clear today! We are currently facing resistance from the trend line, as well as resistance from previous peaks. This is an opportunity to look for a new decline to the previous bottom, and in case of a break even lower. The important event today is - Fed's Chair Powell testifies Watch for movement beforehand! If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us! To support us, like and comment!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ForexTrendline
2
Make-Or-Break for Stocks! Eyes on the Fed 👀Stocks have retraced significantly in what appears to be a megaphone-like pattern. For the pedantic, a proper megaphone pattern requires higher highs as well, which we don't seem to have, but the spirit of the megaphone pattern is expanding volatility which we do see, especially on the down side. These current levels are a make-or-break for stocks. The level 3867 is crucial here, as it is the intersection of a tend line and a technical and Fibonacci level. If we break this we will have a lot of momentum, and could easily slice through 3846 to find support at 3824 or even 3810. Fundamentally, investors are fearful that a rise in the bond yields will result in a more hawkish Fed, and stocks are loving their low interest rate environment and easy money policies. Watch for hints of the Fed's direction when Jerome Powell speaks tomorrow. If you have faith in the stock market, then any dip should be considered a buying opportunity, as once the news is digested, hawkish or not, stocks will likely rip back to highs.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Dax - Short - Post All Time HighsThe Dax has lost it's upward momentum after having made all time highs on Monday as global equities rose due to Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package. However, downside risks remain due to the continued impact of the pandemic on the global economy as US inflation came in at 1.4% vs 1.5% forecast. We await Powell's speech later today for any significant price action and believe prices could challenge long term support around 13,000 in the coming weeks.
XETR:DAXShort
by KQMarkets
ridethepig | NZD for FED📌 ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 27.01.2021 What is in play here? Buyers depriving shorts of their rewards and not allowing the breakdown ahead of Fed. Strategically speaking, this looks and smells a lot like a slingshot. The strong rejection points towards the Kiwi inflows after RBNZ let slip that rate cuts are unlikely. On the Fed side, dollar devaluation is still the name of the game and a dovish Powell is already widely expected. Not expecting much positivity on the recovery front, positioning is the main factor in play here and a sweep of the highs would be healthy as is the case for EURUSD. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 28.01.2021📌 ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 28.01.2021 In this position, we have managed to build a solid floor at the 1.207x area and as widely expected Buyers fought like a lion to defend their jurisdiction. The ECB on the wires attempted to talk down the currency via threatening room for rate cuts, classic jawboning from Knot in attempt to provide shelter. They will not cut again and time to call bs; here actively buying dips in the euro - this charming position is proof of the wonderful beauty of technical analysis. Looking back to the initial start of this move, it has taken a lot longer for the flow to play out than I would have liked, however, nothing has changed and there is no reason to be alarmed. If we lose the floor and breach 1.200x, then we KNOW we are WRONG and need to reassess the view. Fed artificial dollar devaluation is here to stay and a move back towards the top of the range is the path of least resistance. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 27.01.2021📌 ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 27.01.2021 In the middle of Fed, let's update the Gold chart! Buyers are in the habit of unpinning , by choosing the quiet break of $1,860 and then allowing a quiet congestion to justify this collection of energy based on two premises: 1️⃣ The bottom formation has taken place ahead of the event. 2️⃣ The troops (buyers) which have been brought into play since $1,803 are now going to be rewarded for their bravery , position favours the topside as sellers lose their grip . I would like to add that the same flows are also in play for Silver, from time to time I am inclined to update the entire charts to keep up with some of the unpleasantness of chop and congestion . This point of view can be seen in: The above is of course extremely obvious, and by now my dear readers you all know what is in play on the fundamental side. The pandemic worsening is stalling the economic recovery, employment is still way below comfortable levels. Softening demand, and lower CL prices have been keeping inflation down, but for how much longer...? Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
15
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 26.01.2021📌 ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 26.01.2021 An important chart update for euro here, which does not require to create a decision, but shows how price rolls forwards undr the direction of price drivers. It advanced quite far and cramped the highs. Finally there is another opportunity for loading on the 1.212x pivot. For the risk cocktail we have Conte resignation , covid varients , vaccine execution and delays to Biden stimulus all entering into play. These are unusual markets and volatility expansions (e.g. yesterday) are still showing that the USD remains the safest place to park capital when the storm hits. I am still of the view that we will clear initial targets , but clearly there are risks entering into the picture and trading pragmatically is important with risk in the air. For those holding longs in this swing, it's time to sit on our hands with a lottery ticket , trail our stops and take of the exposure. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming on these short-term flows 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | Euro for ECB📌 ridethepig | Euro for ECB In some chart annotations, we have already covered the need for a pullback yesterday and to either use that to build the position centrally or lines aimed at mapping the flow for those covering on the pullback. The main point was to gain momentum for the slingshot after the 1.207x bids held. > Global inflation is starting to show signs of creeping higher ( see the explanation ) so expecting Lagarde to be slightly bullish EUR on inflation, neutral on growth, no changes in rates and the usual 'watching the currency closely'. The significance on the technical side is that buyers have situated themselves comfortably since Monday, as a basis for further operations, lies beyond all possible doubt. This is subtle and illustrates the deep relationship between the ECB and the dollar flank. A breach above the 1.216x highs now into sellers camp will trigger the capitulation towards our first target, play the momentum gambit when the opportunity arises. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
12
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 19.01.2021📌 ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 01.19.2021 We should strategically protect our position, not a sickly stop or weak-looking exposure, etc. As you can see, the bids at 1.207x held and buyers as widely expected fought like a lion to defend their jurisdiction. This was not the act of Christian kindness or pity or etc, this is a strategic point that required defending from the outflows. The strength to pull back above our 1.212x pivot shows that buyers are functioning as normal, while sellers are licking their wounds and covering quickly. How to get rid of our opponent? A break above the 1.222x via a more dovish than anticipated Yellen today will get rid of any remaining sellers and force 'confidence' back into the spotlight. This will not receive tender treatment as it always comes down to the same situation: It always comes down to the same situation; a central bank which could be called sound, but which has one sickly component. As we all know by now, the longer the delay in USD devaluation from Fed, the worst the blow is going to be in Equity markets and one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. Confidence will send capital fleeing. Here eyeballing a test of 1.222x first before 1.230x. While invalidation or reassessment will be required should we breach the current floor Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 18.01.2021📌 ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 18.01.2021 Here to kick the week off with the first moves we have buyers choosing to defend the 1.207x bids, protecting the support level and relieving the channel structure of this duty so that it can become a bit more appealing possibly for a slingshot. The next moves higher in EURUSD can be the start of a swing that cracks the 2018 highs. Yearly Eurobonds Sellers have missed the proper moment to get in contact with the stops below the support. If the position were with Pound, on the other hand, the win for buyers would be much more difficult, whereas now euro follows on its own logically defined map. UK is at the heart of the matter of fundamental impacts around Brexit, the euro will be considered a stepping stone for UK outflows as sharp speculators and large macro hands evacuate through the flanks to avoid getting caught up with BOE -ve rates. To the topside 1.212x remains a 🔑 pivot level with initial targets found above at 1.222x and 1.230x while invalidation comes from a sustained breach below support. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
12
Gold - A Major TestGold prices fell heavily last week as US yields climbed above 1% on the back of the Georgia election results. With the Democrats having secured an unlikely blue wave, Joe Biden now has the platform to deliver on some of his more ambitious priorities, including a massive stimulus plan. The President-elect is due to outline plans as early as today, with reports suggesting he will push for a $2 trilllion stimulus package. The worry in the markets then being its impact on inflation, bond purchases and interest rates, hence the moves in yields. Fed policy makers have been trying to ease these concerns this week and have succeeded to some extent but with the 10-year still above 1%, there's still clearly some work to do. Should policy makers fail to alleviate these concerns, we could see a very significant breakout to the downside in gold, breaking below the 200/233 SMA band which has been key support since breaking above it back in December 2018. Combined with the rejection of the 61.8 fib last week, it would be a bad warning signal for the yellow metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by OANDA
6
ridethepig | Rate Differentials 📍 A quick update here on the elements of EUR and USD Ending the 'C' part in the swing down has been a hard struggle and with such a problem a surprising retreat is expected. Buyers are threatening to bottle up their opponent. A pullback in EURUSD towards 1.15/1.14 will make things a lot easier: Inflation is demanding a return, after sufficient preparation, watch out on the battlefield (see my explanation in the recession strategy). The other theoretically plan of attack is a flank attack in USD which must be nipped in the bud via FED but they will lag behind now. Real money understands the point behind this move. Firstly, the test of 1.70 is starting to be considered from the point of view that the current block is settled to the topside. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
6
DIS 12/21/2020 LongDIS gapped up on heavy volume over a significant level that it was bumping up against & has spent six days digesting these higher prices. I bought a half-sized position on Monday (12/21/20) when the market gapped lower due to a new COVID strain mutation in the U.K. I believe that the market is over COVID & has been for some time. Unless there is a negative development on the vaccine front, Pumpin' Powell is going to be able to continue inflating the asset bubble. The DIS pullback also coincided nicely with a bounce off of the 9-day EMA. My initial stop is below the low of the gap-up day. I'm looking to add larger size on a break of Monday's highs circa $172. I would also be willing to add on a false break & quick reclaim of Monday's lows, at which point I would move stops up to just below the false break.
NYSE:DISLong
by apaqu
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 18.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 18.12.2020 What was the point in BOJ meeting overnight? Finally extensions of the handouts coming from the Japanese base, and remarkably the 103.0x was rescued via lack of conviction from macro players to chase it lower. Buyers now can play the break, undoing their opponents work and imagine the test of 105 as being important for the yearly close flows. This iteration of dollar strength will be most visible in GBPUSD and USDJPY - choppy conditions seem appropriate. Here we are tracking this rather technical move. I am looking firstly for a move towards 105 resistance, followed by a zag to fade back towards 103.5x which is a 300 tick round trip. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1