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ridethepig | Dollar Strategy Note📌 A good time to review and update our main battleground Another moment here which is going to force decision, buyers are needing to complete at a minimum their ABC targets while the extension targets still remain locked. While the other side of the coin comes from those looking to play the long term structural decline in the dollar, and sellers are flirting to react sharply at the highs in the range with a plan to defend resistance. How did we end up here ❓ It boils down to this long-term macro chart which looked very promising for sellers: Medium term : The further we zoom in, the more details we can add... To add more context, since 2018, we have been tracking the highs in dollar and we shall have to content ourselves with the "throwback" chart which briefly explains the truth behind the technical opening and structural decline. What does this all mean ❓ We are trading inside an impulsive macro leg to the downside with MT and LT targets in the DXY located at 88.2x and 74.8x respectively. This does not rule out a pullbacks/retracement, and it would be perfectly valid for buyers to break the chop to the topside only to receive another hammer later in the year / early 2021. A continuation of dollar strength and breakout of the range would put pressure on the soft hand sellers that are unaware of the larger forces in play, capital flows are not linear in direction. From a technical perspective we can play the breakup with a momentum gambit, taking 94 will open 94.6x and 94.8x for a quick visit. Anything else beyond that is currently locked for buyers. If you are a seller here you are looking to sell as cheaply as possible and fading a break of 94 handle is in play. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:DXY
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | USDCHF Market Commentary 2020.09.16A nice ST reversal swing setup forming here that will be easy to defend for sellers. Naturally here in the middle of the range is surrounded in chop, but there is still hope. The technical range in USD is clearly defined after the swing down. We have strong resistance at 0.92 which is a cheap sell on rallies, with 0.90 acting as soft support and another test would be fatal in opening up the downside. Unless there is a huge surprise today with Fed we can move up to squeeze the dollar bears in the short-term and trigger enough energy for the next impulsive swing down in DXY. 📌 See the macro USD annotation. Here we are dealing with an admittedly somewhat unusual example of artificial dollar devaluation as the WH / FED (same thing nowadays) are faced with a choice between a weaker currency and a weaker stock market. The ebb and flow lower in DXY will not be without pullbacks, know when to attack accordingly. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | USDCNH Market Commentary 2020.09.22It is a well known phenomenon that the darling of 2020 has been the Yuan. An important difference operationally for China has allowed the sharp speculators to ride the flows in the endgame of an economic cycle. We must first take a look at the outpost we spotted earlier in the year, the start of sellers activity. There are signs of some short-term dollar strength via risk which means the flows are becoming less simplistic in nature and will start to aggressively shake out the late retailers with awful entries. The continuation from this position is also down to Fed. As US continue to print and finally artificially devalue the dollar we must also track the speed of which inflation returns. Those who believe in 2% inflation making a return will be tracking the supply side chains, rather than the demand side. Less tech advancements, a pullback in globalisation and increased government intervention are bearish for US and Chinese Equities.
Short
by ridethepig
3
USDCHF Macro outlook 2020.09.19USDCHF has been trading in a range between 0.9200 and 0.9000 since late July. when it retests the top of its range at 0.9200. Elsewhere, they are confident the pair will eventually break through 0.9000. The most important even of the day is the Fed’s report today. It definitely will add fresh volatility to the market. in particular, await the Fed to deliver the dovish statement with economic guidelines up to 2023. The central bank may leave rates at low levels during this period. Even though the recent US data comes better than expected, Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell should stay uncertain and pessimistic over the recovery. As a result, the US dollar may plummet amid the Fed’s pressure as well as USD/CHF. Let’s look at the 4-hour USD/CHF chart. If the pair test the Resistance of 0.91xx, it may fall deeper to the low of September 1 at 0.9010. In the opposite scenario, if the price manages to cross the high of September 10 at 0.917x-0.918xx , the way towards the next resistance of 0.92xx will be clear. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by Ridethemacro
RidetheMacro| DOW Jones📌 Wall Street closed deeply in the red on Friday and the S&P and Nasdaq linked a third weekly decline, as sharp losses in the tech sector continued. Shares of Big Tech dropped steeply led by Apple (-3.2%), Amazon (-1.8%), and Microsoft (-1.2%). On the earnings side, US Steel rallied 9% after the company reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. On the policy front, Democrats and Republicans are still far from a deal on the coronavirus aid follow-on bill to the previous $2 trillion package. The Dow Jones lost 245 points or 0.9% to 27,657. 🏴󠁳󠁣󠀰󠀱󠁿 the loss of the technical structure seeks compensation. Still Need a Clear Break of Trend Area also MA death cross help to give a clear view to add shorts with Confidence. ⚡ U.S.-China tensions simmer Tensions between China and the U.S. also dampened sentiment on Friday after the U.S. government said it will block all TikTok and WeChat downloads in the country on Sunday. Oracle, which is trying to take a minority stake in TikTok-parent ByteDance, fell 0.7%. Major Technical Areas to watch. Risky for longs above 27,35x Risk for shorts above 28,25x Like, subscribe and leave your comments below! 🤝 Until next time, Ride the macro
UShort
by Ridethemacro
ridethepig | USDJPY Market Commentary 2020.09.12📍 JPY Buyers are threatening to breakout. After 107 comes 110 and then 112.x. But sellers have other trump cards, for example covid. My impression is as follows: as the dollar firms and finds a temporary floor therefore can be considered a bounce into the elections which can be somewhat double-edged. If the preconditions are met, namely if we get a continuation of Abenomics with the leadership elections, and effective parries into the Yen are restrained, then beginning the advance towards 150 may be justified. But we should consider the development here to be EARLY/OPENING game. In light of this, we should take longs on a leash and if the market starts paying we can add more size. The technical breakout would lead to buyers occupying the flows. Equities may felt even more the heat if we see a paralysing effect via temporary USD inflows. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EuroThe ECB as a weakness Two possibilities exist for the terrain ahead, one for the continuation or one for the breakdown. This very much amusing position from a markets perspective stems from the initial Eurobonds positional play. The position is reached as a touchstone for the fact in the thesis. We have already covered the macro and explained the fundamentals in play so we shall now cover that here today. Instead we shall consider the bear case and understand the conditions in play, namely: (a) the presence of a breakdown (b) a monetary vocal defence from Lagarde which could be directly attacked as weakness in the currency Our swings so far have played out favourably. Although this time the decision is more challenging, the weaknesses Lagarde sent has opened up the downside and sellers can now threaten a retest of support levels at 1.15 - 1.14. Just a threat, the diagonal support breach is toying with the idea and it is quite understandable, indeed the dollar has come along way in such a short period of time and the risks are no longer idiosyncratic to the US as cases sky rocket in Europe. Buyers have shown up but for the time being I am going to bring things closer to home and pull back on the bullish euro view. We are at the edge of the board and a continuation although is technically in play towards 1.225x - 1.250x it will be hard to manoeuvre with a round of risk-off. Combining a pullback and leveraging continuation at 1.14 / 1.15 would be the winning move. Consider selling a breakdown next week or trailing longs very aggressively. Logical analysis concludes that a pullback is in play as there is definitive weakness on the monetary side in Europe. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
EURUSD before FOMC!If you have active positions, close them! If you don't have one, don't open it! This applies to anyone who does not want to take the risk of being active during the news. The Fed's decision on the interest rate will be announced today, and it is expected to give direction to the USD before the November elections. We expect this to cause serious movements, so if you are not convinced of the trade you have, you better wait. What will be the direction? - Probably only Jerome Powell has a clear answer to this question :) What we want to see is where the movement will go and in which direction it will break. Be especially careful here for fake movements! Then we will get involved in trades. Still, our main scenario today is to see a decline and pressure to 1.1709 Good luck and don't forget to like and comment!
Short
by ForexTrendline
11
ridethepig | S&P📍 S&P This illustrates the total downside unlocked in S&P in the 5-3-5 sequence, but also note how unlike the Down the lows are set to hold. An innovation play. Tech avoids the development of destruction because 2,368 looks pinned and unavoidable for a test. As you can see the small caps => mid caps => large caps as usual in the end game flows. Dow: Russell: It is very much the same flow across the moves, the exchange of risk. We have already discussed the fundamentals in play for US Equities, we will need to start building an archive thread while helps keep track... more details on this coming soon. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | TRYBuyers have made the transition towards capitulation. This leaves Turkey with a huge problem, and the process of the cleanse in local banks will continue. CBRT will defend with its 'customary inventiveness' very soon as they keep a stern eye on 7.8xx. It is an unfortunate position that Turkey are in. We have exploited it for some time and as soon as the banking collapse makes it way onto Bloomberg and etc it's time to start looking at closing out. Well done all those who sent their troops to the buy side, a massive +30% swing so far and counting. After the break through 6.78 it has continued to grind its way to the wearisome target. This is the real point in the manoeuvre, which forces us to stay alert and protect profits as we approach the final targets in the unstoppable macro advance. A superb live example. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | Momentum Gambit with ECB 📌 The best move, since the idea of Eurobonds and an early development of the rally is to continue working against structural dollar weakness. The +/- 200 tick pullback from 1.20xx highs in EURUSD to current levels is an attractive level for us to start adding bullish exposure. As will become clear, buyers are in full control on the macro direction and sharp speculators are playing the euro as a funding currency. The social idiosyncratic problems in the West are not going to be covered here today although are playing a major roll in the election cycle and USD. The way the dollar has completely paralysed Fed is in plain sight for all to see. And now, I ask you; what tolerance will the current administration have for a weaker dollar into the elections versus a weaker stock market? You get my point... an honourable (???) Powell bending the knee to Trump with a typical CBanker desperation move to create artificial weakness in USD and hold stocks is managing to create a wave of problems in Europe. As much as they would like to, there is little chance of ECB intervening at these levels, meaning for trading and speculator purposes we can squeeze and squeeze until they finally cough which wont be for another +10%. We will cover the ECB together in detail although here preparing for a very dismissive Lagarde this week which will reverse any considering intervention. A strong move here would be very useful as we can complete the MT and LT breakout targets from earlier in the year. I am expecting bulls to come out with their trump card, still eyeballing the same 1.25xx targets before year-end and 1.30xx / 1.35xx are on the menu for 2021. What we are learning from this move in the euro is firstly how to distinguish between genuine and false fundamental moves. After clearing targets at 1.20xx it attracted both profit taking and also some early birds looking to outguess a hand from ECB on the currency. For this week, what we are tracking is the deprivation of those looking who jumped the gun to give us energy to move higher. The pullback they have laid over the past week should also be kept in context with the long-term macro view: For the techincal flows, the 1.186x is finally getting attention. But just at that point, it is hard to predict that the radius of ECB volatility expansion wont send us into the opposing camp at 1.170x. Hence the textbook way to play this, is to load on a momentum gambit through 1.186x or load in the market manoeuvre zones. Invalidation for bulls comes below 1.170x as it will unlock 1.15xx. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | Bitcoin Market Commentary 2020.09.01Heading into the office this morning to find Cryptos stronger after a holiday weekend. BTCUSD is now less focused on risk and finding more USD devaluation players getting involved. With all of the weaker summer seasonalities behind us, it is pragmatic for players to look for value in scarcity. The long-term macro chart constitutes a formidable comfort; the purpose of understanding the long-term direction of an asset is to put your mind at ease. Focus on the long-term to navigate the short-term flows with endurable strength. The $21,000 and $36,000 ready to accept bids, buyers will be kept busy. Eyeballing a tasty desert for all Crypto enthusiasts. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
12
ridethepig | ADP/NFP Combo Play📌 What we are trading here is an event risk play. This swing illustrated combining both ADP and NFP prints. It is also characteristic for the fearlessness with which USD sellers can to a certain point neglect their own weakness. The loonie with some broad based USD profit taking as widely expected after clearing initial targets. I am looking to recycle USDCAD shorts on rallies into 1.315x providing initial resistance. It looks like this move lower can at least test 1.295x. To avoid jumping the gun, shorts are only worth considering at 1.315x (soft resistance) as we are trading an internal structure that must inspire flows. We are trying to nip any rally with ADP prints in the bud with the still latent power of the structural USD devaluation. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.08.29📌 In spite of the summer lull, EURUSD continue to hold and buyers are threatening to win the 1.20xx handles. Sharp speculators understood the powerful attacking force of debt mutualisation, but the icing on the cake comes from Fed artificially flushing USD. The king continues its march lower. To maintain the buy side in EURUSD is pragmatic. Any direct attempt to step against this flow will be compromised while we remain above 1.178x and 1.161x strong pivots with 1.14xx the stronger level on a quarterly basis. An interesting move will be to complete 1.225x and 1.250x this year before consolidating sufficiently. The moral of the story, is stay long EURUSD. We have discussed the fundamental coverage in detail, there are other things which warrant attention from speculators, I can hear you asking, what things are these then? ...Positioning! This next diagram demonstrates how we can advance and capitalise on expectations transitioning to facts. On a very high level the theme here appears, with a holistic view of the macro direction. This resembles a move towards 1.28x and 1.42x as investors make the most of the advantage, and the 'freer manoeuvrability' of the fiscal side. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
20
EURCAD - Trade Idea.EUR/CAD Cup & Handle Formation...! As I am sure you are aware, from the previous posts I've written and I will say it again: longer time frame indicators short time frame movement. I am long term bullish on EUR, since around 1.13 half to 1.14 areas.. By seeing this formation, makes me even bullish, but I want to get in at a cheap price, because that's what will give you the greatest R/R. Now today we have Powell speaking, which could shift the market in either direction. I won't be trading whilst this even occurs, as it could go either way with increasing amount of volatility. Technicians: Bullish formation - Cup and Handle formation - Bullish Flag forming - Keep support areas to keep an eye on Be sure to follow your trading plan, add your own technical analysis indicators. I'd wait for key pull back or break out of the bullish flag forming then pull back then add further risk towards the bullish momentum occurring. Just a trade idea, not a recommendation. All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
Breakthrough and triangle! Hello, today is an extremely important day. We are waiting for the press conference of Jerome H. Powell and the movements he will provoke. One option that looks good is USDCHF. Here we have a break of the downward trend and then the development of a triangle. This triangle will most likely be broken today! We expect to see a rise, as trades are recommended to be made after a breakthrough. Resistance levels: 0.9212 0.9309 0.9361 Of course we are ready for surprises! Be patient! Support us with likes and comments!
Long
by ForexTrendline
4
ridethepig | DXY Market Commentary 2020.06.15A quick update here for those tracking the entire swing in Dollar: It would be more natural to develop in this structure with a test of 99, since the impulsive sequence (if it is such) must eventually test 92.92 to complete the move. To keep up the pressure on USD the social focus will instead switch towards Atlanta and health focus on virus cases which sadly are shooting higher once more. To exploit the USD "weakness" the positions are more of one: 📍For those tracking Short-term flows: 📍 For those tracking the Long-term Macro chart: As usual thanks all for keeping the likes, comments, charts and questions rolling!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | KRW Q3 Macro Flows📌 A short update here for those tracking USDKRW ... It has been a very slippery pig since the last update: Here buyers stormed into control and chose to occupy the bid protecting 1140 via Covid flows. The relieving of this profit taking has become a bit more enterprising possibly via the idiosyncratic spike in cases for the U.S. The next moves are cooked and almost ready to go... since the centralisation of EM FX has taken place, the board is forced to exchange in the same swing. Vaccine headlines are coming in from all angles, more fiscal and CB stimulus are also there for the last few days of July for markets to get stuck into. Typically we will see the ebb and flow in risk start by August, thin and choppy liquidity markets in the middle of summer make forr useful loading zones in calm waters. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1