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ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.02.26On the risk side, US10Y bouncing from the lows while Global Equities attempt to form a s/t floor. Central Bank co-ordinated policy is only a matter of time, markets have forced FED, ECB, BOC, BOJ, BOE and everything in-between to kiss the hand and keep rate cuts on the table. JPY is itching to resume dancing the same rhythm but given USD demand via month end rebalancing there will be room to sell USDJPY from cheaper levels later in the week. Look to fade any rallies into 110.7x with initial targets located at 110.3x and 109.8x. Invalidation of the view comes with a breach of 111.2x. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.02.26Here we go for another important NY session … EURUSD holding the 🔑 1.09xx test of resistance ahead of the open as expected. Markets notably anxious of further outbreaks which (sadly) seems unavoidable now. I spotted a lot of euro supply from corporates this morning. Remaining short is perfectly reasonable assuming the current highs hold this PM, targets are located below 1.07. For those in Fixed Income the picture is a lot easier to see as usual they are miles ahead of the retail FX crowd. On EURUSD I am holding shorts from the initial 1.086x entry here for a leg towards the initial support at 1.077x. As long as the 1.09xx resistance is holding there is very little to see to the topside. The EUR weakness is a lot easier to see this morning in EURCHF, this 1.060x level is being defended by SNB: In EQ things are a lot clearer as the waterfall is in play already for DAX, coronavirus has short-circuited the global reflationary theme that market where so happy to latch onto towards the back-end of 2019: ...good luck to all those riding the pig. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc! Stay tuned for a well needed round of chart updates coming across most asset classes.
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.02.24A very important weekend across the globe. Italy, Iran and SK weighing heavy on virus sentiment as capital rushes out the doors. Any hopes of a Q2 rebound are starting to fade and that USD haven demand we’ve seen of late looks set to continue. All eyes this week remain on virus watch, a muted/slightly dovish Lagarde expected on the wires and here happy to sell any bounces into 1.085x/6x. A move through 1.0775 will trigger momentum. On the Bund side things are a lot clearer with a -12% day! Fast paced markets, tracking the 1.086x entry here for a leg towards the initial support at 1.077x. The waterfall is in play, good luck to all those riding the pig. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | Continue To Sell GBP On Rallies Here tracking 1.295x as the level to recycle and load more shorts. Well done those following from the original short-term swing which was triggered on the cabinet reshuffle (see diagram below). As widely expected GBP suffering as markets began to look towards the EU negotiations kickstarting in March. Both sides are very wide apart and no-deal Brexit looks set for year end. The flows are all in-line so far with the long-term macro picture. It is playing out perfectly and looking to sell rallies with risks skewed towards the downside makes sense to me. Medium term targets are located below at 1.21 and 1.15 - these are in play for 1H 2020 if things get very bad with USD strengthening via panic around virus impact and risks while GBP softens as UK lose PPP in the immediate term. Well done those already selling Sterling, and good luck anyone look to load more on rallies. I am happy to sit short and work the sell-side in Cable. The ideas are no less imaginative than those of last year which turned out to be a 1,000 tick trade: Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming !
Short
by ridethepig
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ridethepig | JPY Losing It's "Haven" Status...Highlights of the week going to USDJPY exploding to the topside and catching many with their pants down (myself included). In times of extreme panic even the USD can outperform JPY as a safe haven currency. Japanese economy is coughing badly in all data fronts and considering the geographical location relative to the virus it makes it hard to find reasons to park capital there for the forseeable future. Combining all of this with the technical break of 110.3x which was strong resistance and cascaded macro stops, simply, technicals only added fuel to the fundamental fire. The monthly chart in USDJPY is looking very bullish indeed, with targets up at 149.xx .. this chart is not looking so crazy after all: The same 'E' leg that we traded live together: Most of the sell-side flows in USDJPY were built around coronavirus risk-off sentiment - I recommend bookmarking this breakup as it seems we are dislocating from the traditional JPY safe haven environment. Picking up cheap tactical longs on the day at 111.25 ideally with initial targets located at 111.8x and 112.2x before trailing for the breakup. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.18As widely expected we got a test of the highs at 64.2x once the channel was broken (see diagram). The ladder is light and I like to play this tight range and look for a test of the lows. "Eyes here, looking to sell 64.2x on the day..." - This is currently in play, although risk is showing now signs of abating the low sizings are keeping a test of the lows on the cards. Tracking closely the highs, if we get a breakup then I will not be stubborn and hold onto the shorts, I will close. This is a tactical range trade. Good luck all those in USDRUB, we can open the short-term sentiment conversations in the comments if we get enough interest. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comment and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Canada CPI Event RiskWith US away from their desks today we will get a dull session and the relentless loonie bid will grind us back towards the 1.3275x area. It is a good value level to re-engage with shorts and here looking to add ahead shorts there ahead of local CPI on Wednesday. The MT and LT outlooks for Canada are very good in my books; A bullish USD view on risk via coronavirus flows will be better expressed versus EUR or even AUD because of relationship with China if things get really bad. Canada is less exposed on the monetary side (other than as collateral via oil) and as long as data holds up there will be no further rate cuts, and remember we have OPEC cuts coming next month. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc! Jump in with your charts and views below...
Short
by ridethepig
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ridethepig | ZAR Market Commentary 2020.02.17Here tracking for a very technical pullback after a test of last week's open. Positioning is incredible stretched meaning the tree can be shaken at any minute, I want to get long USDZAR but reluctant to chase anything at these levels. Tracking a pullback into the 14.7x jurisdictions before doing anymore business here. A similar move for those tracking USDTRY: A breakdown is not necessary or fundamentally attractive in both TRY and ZAR, sitting tight and looking for cheaper levels in both makes sense to me. Market might give some of the high beta currencies a bid in the illiquid flows before EM FX receives a major hammer later in the week.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2020.02.14Models make it hard to add any longs to USDCHF here at the highs, risk opening the floodgates for a -1.5% short, mainly stemming from a notable pick up in demand for CHF after the latest shift in risk sentiment. Here tracking the risks related to coronavirus that imply the Eurozone growth will take another hit (as if things were not already difficult enough for Europe) and CHF will act as a safe haven in the flow. On the SNB side, intervention is a lot more tricky with Trump tracking like a hawk for any artificial devaluation. For the short-term flows I am tracking 0.980x for the trigger, risking -25 on the day and targeting a retest of the Weekly open. On the macro charts things are clearer: From a technical perspective, we marked the long term highs in an ending diagonal count. For those following the previous charts we have traded live here on Tradingview this ABC leg. This is far from surprising considering that CHF has a much brighter nature of dealing with large capital flows than the US, which is underlined by protectionism. Risks to the thesis come from SNB intervention capping the upside in CHF (unlikely as per this morning). As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EUR Spot Commentary 2020.02.14All 👀 on EUR with heavy sells mounting from some of the biggest sharks in the business. It’s difficult to find anything positive on the macro side in Europe at the moment, and notably I am getting an increasing amount of questions from clients with the same exhaustion. With German uncertainty, ECB emergency cuts making the rounds and when you look at positioning there is room for a leg in EURUSD towards the 1.07xx handle to close the gap from 🇫🇷 elections. Clearly a lot more unwinding to be done and after the fresh break lower and with the macro price drivers unlikely to change in the immediate term, I will look to short 1.0925 aiming for the 1.07 lows.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EURUSD Macro Update [Dissecting Waves]The starting position has been difficult to reach for the 3rd impulsive wave after coronavirus risk-off flows hijacked the move. But what now? Either a breakdown to close the gap from French elections in 2017 or an imminent reversal to kickstart the leg; of course if only the positional obligation was not so appealing at these levels for longs because we are obliged to play, instead of with the current direction, some positionally relevant move to strengthen the advance. On the macro side, refreshing to see the lows holding but for how long? We are just simply picking key levels where the price can kick up out of. You don't necessarily need to agree with the wave counts but you see the value levels for those wanting to work the bid. These are not the levels you want to be selling in my books, I will not chase this lower unless we get a daily close below the 5th wave which will naturally call for reassessment of the count. Those tracking the dissection of the technicals will know by now that we are sitting in key support levels from our technical diagram: Regular readers and those with a background in waves will know that the trend resumption towards the topside is only a matter of time. Buyers will repeat the manoeuvre and create a longer term threat - that is the intention! Its only once you have mapped this out and you have an understanding of the big picture in play that you can then come down smaller and start trying to work the intraday legs. I could get even more to this if the US Equities come under pressure and correct which will in turn force FED to tilt further towards the dovish side... In any case we will see how this one goes, I am looking to get long but will need a helping hand from a fresh price driver to assist in flipping the board. Risks to the thesis come from an emergency -10bps hike from the ECB, it does not look in play as long as the lows are holding..clearly markets are testing their patience, a breach of the lows will force Lagarde to capitulate with a cut. There wont be anymore QE because that's too difficult to backtrack. Cutting rates would be the more effective front load....wary of this walking forward. Don't forget to keep the likes, charts, questions and comments coming! Thanks guys...
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Sticking The Knife In TRYTurkey continues to stand out on the EM FX board, USDTRY finding strong support at the 5.97xx with sizeable USD demand signals from local Turkish banks. These same banks will be quick to cover should we breach the 6.00 handle and vulnerable to a squeeze once engaged. In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the breakout we traded unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | CAD Spot Commentary 2020.02.12An interesting addition to the Oil dynamics with OPEC cuts coming in March clashing with risk-off flows via coronavirus spillovers and everything else in-between. There is a lot going on; highly recommend tracking the retrace leg in Oil for this one it is really going to act as the main driver for us to lean on over the coming sessions. We can track accurately the isolation of USD and Oil with USDCAD. In diagram below, this one is coming from CADNOK, you will notice NOK outperforming: You will notice CAD also finding demand into the 1.33xx handle as widely anticipated, happy to sit short USDCAD for now and continue working the sell side. Losing 1.324x in USDCAD will unlock the floodgates for a quick spike towards 1.305x. Those with a background in waves will know that the impulsive extension is still marginally open but it would take a game changer on the oil front to get us down there in my books which is looking less and less likely given the shift away from Oil. The USDCAD downside can be played for 1H20 before things get difficult again in Oil. Don't forget to keep the likes, charts and comments coming!
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Coronavirus Retrace LegThe underlying USD devaluation seems little changed on the whole despite the Coronavirus hijack. Volatility is subdued as seen in the diagram below, which is making it very simple for large sizings to enter as was the case in 2007. The USD weakness (which is a lot clearer on the Monthly chart) is a significant component in the reflation trade, growth projections in the US (in terms of GDP) are slowing and this remains ongoing despite Kudlow et al on the wires. The path of least resistance for Powell is to cut, while the Yield curve (below) shows the recession risks are still there and prevalent. The titanic takes a long time to turn around, I am sitting tight in the Dollar sell-side for the mid and long term. You can see the picture clearly here that the 2017 highs are holding: ...my forecast is for a gradual decline in the next Q before significantly weakening towards the back-end in the year. Don't forget to keep the likes and comments coming! Thanks!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
1
GBPUSD: Market Outlook, Plan and Probabilities Future Price MoveU.K.’s first GDP reading, which is expected at 0.0% after a 0.4% reading in Q3 2019. If weak expectations then we could see GBP/USD drop below its 1.2875 weekly lows (weekly pivot s1 level) and maybe even make a run for the lower s2 or beyond. This is still possible given Cable’s daily ATR and its move so far today. If today’s data dump allows the BOE to avoid the dove camp for a while longer, then Cable could revisit its 1.2970 broken support before submitting to other economic catalysts. Speaking of, Fed’s Powell will talk economy in D.C. during the U.S. session. He will likely repeat the Fed’s growth optimism and concerns over low inflation but traders will also want to hear about the impact of Coronavirus and maybe his reaction to Trump’s latest calls for lower interest rates.
by Anatta0
ridethepig | KZT 2020 Macro Map A fresh and new instrument to the @ridethepig Tradingview portfolio. Tenge finding a strong bid with a lot of air below to the next target area. Tenge is definitely oversold and cheap compared to other valuations in EM FX space, the attractive carry is worth playing if you have Oil or RUB in the playbook. A quick recap of the Oil Macro chart: From a strictly technical perspective, KZT highs are now capped above 380 and downside pressure is acceptable. Target-wise ==> I am looking for a test in the lows of this range at 310 (a -18% swing!!). Remember macro trades do not trade for pips, these are for pipsqueaks. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | JPY Spot Commentary 2020.02.04Risk markets recovering, well done all those who voted to buy the dip overnight in the Asian bounce. PBOC suturing the wound (for now). On the macro side, strong data from the US manufacturing side should be taken with a pinch of salt as was helped massively via phase 1 and too soon to measure any viral impact. Flow wise, I noticed a lot of fast money clients buying JPY offshore which is reassuring for my shorts. On the Daily chart we are still yet to break through Support : I am looking to add more at 109.2x with initial targets at 108.8x and 108.3x on the day. No one wanting to fight alone against the USD devaluation, sellers are ready to beat the living daylight out of late buyers. Don't forget we can comfortably lean on the 2020 Macro flows for USDJPY: Good luck all those on the sell side, a lot of meat left on the bone and we can open up the short-term flows if we get enough interest in the comments below. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Feel The Bern!Here a very good time to update the Daily chart in EURUSD as we approach the infamous "Loading Zone" at 1.104x for the European close. A temporary reprieve for US data but in this case sellers have already exposed their stops on the highs while buyers continue to load on the ranks. The exchange/consolidation in the short-term flow makes it possible for buyers to continue loading at support. But in this case too, a quiet move (after the powerful moves in Asia) namely consolidation at support then check-mate on the next breakup. This will likely come tonight by Bernie winning in Iowa which will weigh heavy on the USD. You will notice the concentration of forces on the Weekly related diagram: In this position, the direct exploitation of calm waters after the storm is forcing away many participants. It is of prime importance to perform this manoeuvre in the Asian session! Good luck all those in EURUSD, I tactically stay long and watch 1.12xx handle for a break above. To the downside reassessment is only necessary below 1.095. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the comments with your charts and we can open the discussions!
Long
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | EUR Spot Commentary 2020.02.03After managing to retrace most of Friday's rally we are going to open up the Weekly flows for EURUSD; EUR saw notable month end demand as smart money understands the shift behind the curtain at the ECB. The highs in this are going to be capped at the 1.12 handle with main targets 1.125x and anything beyond this would have to come from the USD side at this point. Before we dig any deeper into the flows lets quickly recap the charts we are tracking: On the Macro side: For the Long-Term Technical diagram: For the Mid-Term Technical diagram: The DXY Monthly chart: The virus driven risk via growth slowdown in China is showing no signs of abating, it will impact Europe directly and mean we need to run further reviews on the impact before making a decision around whether outlooks need changing. The PBOC are attempting to stop the bleeding, technically this should reach 1.125 as a minimum flow. It will be difficult to make any concrete changes in the mid and long term charts without understanding more around the impact. For now the levels to track are 1.104x and 1.125x. Good luck all those in EURUSD, I remain bullish and lean towards the 1.125x move completing. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | CNH Spot Commentary 2020.02.03An important update to the CNH chart after the latest coronavirus measurements and impact calculations. PBOC stepped in as expected to stop the bleeding and SHCOMP ending the day with a lucky -8%: In the FX market, the impact will show over the coming sessions as demand for CNH increases with capital rushing to the doors. This is not a healthy technical looking picture, buyers were tracking the "Cup and Handle" formation earlier last year till we traded the rejection live in the diagram: Although it takes a brave man to step against the current flows as they have been short-circuited via a temporary demand shock, I continue to look to ride the pig to the downside here and trade the leg towards the lows in the 6 handle via USD devaluation. Good luck all those navigating around the coronavirus flows, we will keep the charts updated incase of any breakouts to the topside. If this is the case we will need to reassess the view as the 7.27xx technical target which I mentioned earlier would be back in play. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | USDJPY 2020 Flows (Updated)On the risk front, the WHO signalling for a national emergency and markets are not taking it well. The risk-off moves should continue with USDJPY a good benchmark for reference. I am holding shorts and was adding on Friday as nothing suggest any reason to cover although we had month end flows in play which made things tricky as participants were timid. To the downside we can target soft support at 108.4x and 108.2x while 110.7x remains strong resistance so keeping stops above there if you plan to play the entire macro swing down in 2020 flows: This idea is no less imaginative than the diagram here: Even with yield advantage over JGBs I expect risk to control the flows in particular as we get close to US elections providing a choppy zig zag. There will be good demand for USDJPY below 105 (as Japanese investors have been riding the pig overseas) so look to take partial profits on the way, 100 remains my final target in the flow. Best of luck all those in USDJPY and positioning for the remaining 2020 flows - you can see other strategies below! As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | JPY Spot Commentary 2020.01.23USDJPY with important updates from the overnight Asian session. A technical break of the key 109.7x that we have been tracking has opened up the downside. Holding shorts and selling rallies remains my favoured play, all levels remain the same 109.7x broken support, 109.2x initial targets, 107.6x and 106.6x extensions. While to the topside reassessment needed above 102.3. The struggle for liberation has been carried out, sellers have taken control in the jurisdiction and should continue the attack on support. The elimination of the channel base (breakout it out) from the swing, afterwards targets should be directed and aimed at the new 2020 swing: For the rest of the flows, the key level in play is 109.7x now to the topside. This has been clearly broken and with no one wanting to fight alone against the USD devaluation, sellers are ready to beat the living daylight out of late buyers! Good luck all those on the sell side, a lot of meat left on the bone and we can open up the short-term flows if we get enough interest in the comments below. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | ECB Macro FlowsHere we go...Markets are not expecting a lot from the ECB fundamental front , rates will remain on hold with more focus on the hard macro data tomorrow. The only thing to 🔎today is for clues around duration of policy review. On the technical side , jurisdictions are defined clearly on both sides as EUR is comfortably holding the 1.108/9x support. The initial targets are located at 1.125x resistance while stops can be kept comfortably below 1.103x. My feeling is that macro players betting on the topside are itching to get going as the board is setup in favour of EUR. Happy to hold longs for now. In the Long-Term chart (see diagram below) buyers have broken out of the resistance channel; amongst other effects, this reduced the sellers in EURUSD to become a prisoner in their own camp. The main function of the breakout appears to be as a competent bi-product in the USD devaluation / 2020 reflationary theme. The technicals for the long term are striving to reach 1.21xx and beyond. But the concept of "attacker" goes much further. You can also defend areas (for example the 1.108/9x today in ECB) or defend yourself against a breakout: Buyers are securing a wide stretch of the swing territory. This could be considered as gaining momentum with green shoots appearing in Europe already. This means that macro recovery will be used as weapon of force: Good luck all those in EURUSD, and trading ECB today. We can open the short-term flows if there is enough interest in the comments.. as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
14