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ridethepig | Sticking The Knife In TRYTurkey continues to stand out on the EM FX board, USDTRY finding strong support at the 5.97xx with sizeable USD demand signals from local Turkish banks. These same banks will be quick to cover should we breach the 6.00 handle and vulnerable to a squeeze once engaged. In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus headlines and the spillover effects on growth. Regular readers will know I have been a bear on Turkey for years, this environment will not attract any fresh RM inflows into Turkey - just take one look at the yields and the CBRT cutting cycle. On the technical side, the breakout we traded unlocked 7.80xx for the year. Reassessment on the bearish view is only required on a break of the 4th wave support located below at 5.4xx. The upside is wide open and will trigger the dominos in the collapse of Erdogan and Turkey as we know it. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | CAD Spot Commentary 2020.02.12An interesting addition to the Oil dynamics with OPEC cuts coming in March clashing with risk-off flows via coronavirus spillovers and everything else in-between. There is a lot going on; highly recommend tracking the retrace leg in Oil for this one it is really going to act as the main driver for us to lean on over the coming sessions. We can track accurately the isolation of USD and Oil with USDCAD. In diagram below, this one is coming from CADNOK, you will notice NOK outperforming: You will notice CAD also finding demand into the 1.33xx handle as widely anticipated, happy to sit short USDCAD for now and continue working the sell side. Losing 1.324x in USDCAD will unlock the floodgates for a quick spike towards 1.305x. Those with a background in waves will know that the impulsive extension is still marginally open but it would take a game changer on the oil front to get us down there in my books which is looking less and less likely given the shift away from Oil. The USDCAD downside can be played for 1H20 before things get difficult again in Oil. Don't forget to keep the likes, charts and comments coming!
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Coronavirus Retrace LegThe underlying USD devaluation seems little changed on the whole despite the Coronavirus hijack. Volatility is subdued as seen in the diagram below, which is making it very simple for large sizings to enter as was the case in 2007. The USD weakness (which is a lot clearer on the Monthly chart) is a significant component in the reflation trade, growth projections in the US (in terms of GDP) are slowing and this remains ongoing despite Kudlow et al on the wires. The path of least resistance for Powell is to cut, while the Yield curve (below) shows the recession risks are still there and prevalent. The titanic takes a long time to turn around, I am sitting tight in the Dollar sell-side for the mid and long term. You can see the picture clearly here that the 2017 highs are holding: ...my forecast is for a gradual decline in the next Q before significantly weakening towards the back-end in the year. Don't forget to keep the likes and comments coming! Thanks!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
1
GBPUSD: Market Outlook, Plan and Probabilities Future Price MoveU.K.’s first GDP reading, which is expected at 0.0% after a 0.4% reading in Q3 2019. If weak expectations then we could see GBP/USD drop below its 1.2875 weekly lows (weekly pivot s1 level) and maybe even make a run for the lower s2 or beyond. This is still possible given Cable’s daily ATR and its move so far today. If today’s data dump allows the BOE to avoid the dove camp for a while longer, then Cable could revisit its 1.2970 broken support before submitting to other economic catalysts. Speaking of, Fed’s Powell will talk economy in D.C. during the U.S. session. He will likely repeat the Fed’s growth optimism and concerns over low inflation but traders will also want to hear about the impact of Coronavirus and maybe his reaction to Trump’s latest calls for lower interest rates.
by Anatta0
ridethepig | KZT 2020 Macro Map A fresh and new instrument to the @ridethepig Tradingview portfolio. Tenge finding a strong bid with a lot of air below to the next target area. Tenge is definitely oversold and cheap compared to other valuations in EM FX space, the attractive carry is worth playing if you have Oil or RUB in the playbook. A quick recap of the Oil Macro chart: From a strictly technical perspective, KZT highs are now capped above 380 and downside pressure is acceptable. Target-wise ==> I am looking for a test in the lows of this range at 310 (a -18% swing!!). Remember macro trades do not trade for pips, these are for pipsqueaks. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | JPY Spot Commentary 2020.02.04Risk markets recovering, well done all those who voted to buy the dip overnight in the Asian bounce. PBOC suturing the wound (for now). On the macro side, strong data from the US manufacturing side should be taken with a pinch of salt as was helped massively via phase 1 and too soon to measure any viral impact. Flow wise, I noticed a lot of fast money clients buying JPY offshore which is reassuring for my shorts. On the Daily chart we are still yet to break through Support : I am looking to add more at 109.2x with initial targets at 108.8x and 108.3x on the day. No one wanting to fight alone against the USD devaluation, sellers are ready to beat the living daylight out of late buyers. Don't forget we can comfortably lean on the 2020 Macro flows for USDJPY: Good luck all those on the sell side, a lot of meat left on the bone and we can open up the short-term flows if we get enough interest in the comments below. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Feel The Bern!Here a very good time to update the Daily chart in EURUSD as we approach the infamous "Loading Zone" at 1.104x for the European close. A temporary reprieve for US data but in this case sellers have already exposed their stops on the highs while buyers continue to load on the ranks. The exchange/consolidation in the short-term flow makes it possible for buyers to continue loading at support. But in this case too, a quiet move (after the powerful moves in Asia) namely consolidation at support then check-mate on the next breakup. This will likely come tonight by Bernie winning in Iowa which will weigh heavy on the USD. You will notice the concentration of forces on the Weekly related diagram: In this position, the direct exploitation of calm waters after the storm is forcing away many participants. It is of prime importance to perform this manoeuvre in the Asian session! Good luck all those in EURUSD, I tactically stay long and watch 1.12xx handle for a break above. To the downside reassessment is only necessary below 1.095. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the comments with your charts and we can open the discussions!
Long
by ridethepig
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ridethepig | EUR Spot Commentary 2020.02.03After managing to retrace most of Friday's rally we are going to open up the Weekly flows for EURUSD; EUR saw notable month end demand as smart money understands the shift behind the curtain at the ECB. The highs in this are going to be capped at the 1.12 handle with main targets 1.125x and anything beyond this would have to come from the USD side at this point. Before we dig any deeper into the flows lets quickly recap the charts we are tracking: On the Macro side: For the Long-Term Technical diagram: For the Mid-Term Technical diagram: The DXY Monthly chart: The virus driven risk via growth slowdown in China is showing no signs of abating, it will impact Europe directly and mean we need to run further reviews on the impact before making a decision around whether outlooks need changing. The PBOC are attempting to stop the bleeding, technically this should reach 1.125 as a minimum flow. It will be difficult to make any concrete changes in the mid and long term charts without understanding more around the impact. For now the levels to track are 1.104x and 1.125x. Good luck all those in EURUSD, I remain bullish and lean towards the 1.125x move completing. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | CNH Spot Commentary 2020.02.03An important update to the CNH chart after the latest coronavirus measurements and impact calculations. PBOC stepped in as expected to stop the bleeding and SHCOMP ending the day with a lucky -8%: In the FX market, the impact will show over the coming sessions as demand for CNH increases with capital rushing to the doors. This is not a healthy technical looking picture, buyers were tracking the "Cup and Handle" formation earlier last year till we traded the rejection live in the diagram: Although it takes a brave man to step against the current flows as they have been short-circuited via a temporary demand shock, I continue to look to ride the pig to the downside here and trade the leg towards the lows in the 6 handle via USD devaluation. Good luck all those navigating around the coronavirus flows, we will keep the charts updated incase of any breakouts to the topside. If this is the case we will need to reassess the view as the 7.27xx technical target which I mentioned earlier would be back in play. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | USDJPY 2020 Flows (Updated)On the risk front, the WHO signalling for a national emergency and markets are not taking it well. The risk-off moves should continue with USDJPY a good benchmark for reference. I am holding shorts and was adding on Friday as nothing suggest any reason to cover although we had month end flows in play which made things tricky as participants were timid. To the downside we can target soft support at 108.4x and 108.2x while 110.7x remains strong resistance so keeping stops above there if you plan to play the entire macro swing down in 2020 flows: This idea is no less imaginative than the diagram here: Even with yield advantage over JGBs I expect risk to control the flows in particular as we get close to US elections providing a choppy zig zag. There will be good demand for USDJPY below 105 (as Japanese investors have been riding the pig overseas) so look to take partial profits on the way, 100 remains my final target in the flow. Best of luck all those in USDJPY and positioning for the remaining 2020 flows - you can see other strategies below! As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
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ridethepig | JPY Spot Commentary 2020.01.23USDJPY with important updates from the overnight Asian session. A technical break of the key 109.7x that we have been tracking has opened up the downside. Holding shorts and selling rallies remains my favoured play, all levels remain the same 109.7x broken support, 109.2x initial targets, 107.6x and 106.6x extensions. While to the topside reassessment needed above 102.3. The struggle for liberation has been carried out, sellers have taken control in the jurisdiction and should continue the attack on support. The elimination of the channel base (breakout it out) from the swing, afterwards targets should be directed and aimed at the new 2020 swing: For the rest of the flows, the key level in play is 109.7x now to the topside. This has been clearly broken and with no one wanting to fight alone against the USD devaluation, sellers are ready to beat the living daylight out of late buyers! Good luck all those on the sell side, a lot of meat left on the bone and we can open up the short-term flows if we get enough interest in the comments below. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | ECB Macro FlowsHere we go...Markets are not expecting a lot from the ECB fundamental front , rates will remain on hold with more focus on the hard macro data tomorrow. The only thing to 🔎today is for clues around duration of policy review. On the technical side , jurisdictions are defined clearly on both sides as EUR is comfortably holding the 1.108/9x support. The initial targets are located at 1.125x resistance while stops can be kept comfortably below 1.103x. My feeling is that macro players betting on the topside are itching to get going as the board is setup in favour of EUR. Happy to hold longs for now. In the Long-Term chart (see diagram below) buyers have broken out of the resistance channel; amongst other effects, this reduced the sellers in EURUSD to become a prisoner in their own camp. The main function of the breakout appears to be as a competent bi-product in the USD devaluation / 2020 reflationary theme. The technicals for the long term are striving to reach 1.21xx and beyond. But the concept of "attacker" goes much further. You can also defend areas (for example the 1.108/9x today in ECB) or defend yourself against a breakout: Buyers are securing a wide stretch of the swing territory. This could be considered as gaining momentum with green shoots appearing in Europe already. This means that macro recovery will be used as weapon of force: Good luck all those in EURUSD, and trading ECB today. We can open the short-term flows if there is enough interest in the comments.. as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
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ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.01.16AUD and NZD will continue to trade tight ranges after mixed data from NZ overnight. 📊 Chart of the day 📊is going to NZDUSD: Market is clearly presenting another very good opportunity to cover 0.664/6x and initially target 0.660x. In AUDUSD same drill as before, tracking 0.692x for a similar move back towards 0.685x lows in the range. This idea is no less imaginative than the previous call for inside range trading: Good luck all those in AUD and NZD for the coming sessions, as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Jump into the conversation with your charts and idea on AUD & NZD.
Short
by ridethepig
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ridethepig | The SwingWe are going to dig deeper into the concept of the wave/swing and how to create a positional strategy from a strictly technical sense. After the latest test of 1.108/9x, which was so difficult for sellers with its positional issues, the next swing should appear "a piece of cake". I suspect this will lead you to ask whether imaginary protection is enough!? Be a man, no time to be afraid here on such a "protected" area. Seizing the breakup on the next swing has three stages: 1. the swing which is dictating the range 2. the opposing side which will become trapped 3. the swing behind the swing which is being trapped The swinging process is attacking the opposition defending the swing you are playing. So in this case sellers are standing between the first targets at 1.125x - thus it would expose the threatened highs. If this breakout is absolute, i.e the swing may make a new higher high then we can talk of a complete swing. Here the swing is only in the 'early game' stages, the swing in play is only "partially" possible. How easy would it be if we went straight up (!!!) - more experienced traders would sooner stick their head inside a Crocodile's mouth 🐊. The slower the swing, the more respect. Bravery is needed, a swing without a foundation is a swing without power! As a rule, the plan here is to attack in such a way that we take immense control and achieve an attack next week. As usual, thanks so much for keeping the likes and comments coming. Jump into the conversation below with your charts and ideas on EURUSD!
Long
by ridethepig
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ridethepig | NZD Price Dissection [Live]As we approach the 0.660x handle it is time to take profits from our shorts, well done those following from the entire process from the previous diagrams: All of this is taking place while inside the Macro swing: The radius of our flows has been secure in a wide territory. This could also be considered a base formation in a sense of the word. The major play is to the topside for 1H20 as Dollar devaluation is the underlying theme. A lack of space prevented us from reaching all the way to the topside in the macro target, so we had to briefly pause for a few zig-zag range trading formations. This is a superb live example of trading fast flows and forcing short-term moves. Good luck all those positioning in NZDUSD for the coming weeks, I hope these short-term charts have proven helpful.
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.17Eyes on the NY session here with Euro approaching the 1.108/9x lows, I will be actively buying today and sticking with the bullish view with targets located at 1.124/5x. You will see how large hands absorb all of the selling pressure and eat up late breakdown players expected an effortless momentum trade, whereas the reality is the strength of macro forces in play defending the area and will be beautifully demonstrated. The Seller realises the error of his way too late and began to run to the hills. The comedy goes as follows: For example in this position: The strength of the view can be protected in the fact that it is immune from the opposing breakdown. The distant view is decisive: The key point here is that the calendar is light so we are trading technical flows, I am buying the lows at 1.108/9x with targets at 1.124/5x for the highs. While stops can be kept below 1.100x as it will take a break below to demand reassessment of the bullish view. Good luck all those in G10 FX.
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | Dollar Weekly StrategyWith DXY sitting at resistance, I don’t see room for any further near term gains in Dollar. More importantly we are approaching key value levels for sellers from the last Q and large corporates have been spotted on the offer in USD. I have made the Dollar chart available and will publish it with al the more pleasure, since it is particularly interesting as we are sitting in the age of the Aggressive USD devaluation. So here is the chart: Sellers are not afraid of the flank attack because strong macro forces are in play in the monthly chart. The play is centralised; buyers must begin to be felt and in addition the prospect of a breakout down is driving the desperation of the exchange: This illustrates nicely the struggle that USD buyers face. Motto: first position, then defend, and finally breakdown. Markets starting to find their footing for 2020 after clearing NFP. Focus this week shifting to a round of important US macro prints, a key week for those trading USD pairs. Good luck all those on the sell side in USD, major moves in play and important chart updates coming in the next few sessions. I will have live coverage as usual in the Telegram . Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
ridethepig | The Breakout...Insufficient sizings followed through into USD after we cleared the kneejerk reaction in risk via US-Iran. The centre of the map at 1.128x is a strategically dubious setup and offers a great opportunity for EUR bulls to position early as we go into NFP ... how to attack from the wings . By now you all know the necessary swing position we are trading; What, however is less well-know is the strategic necessity to keep an eye on the macro themes, particularly in FX positions; The centre of the technical map here is 1.128x. This means approach with warlike operations as we are never far away. I can remember the initial long-term map we positioned for here, which initially looked rather harmless as far as the flows were concerned; it occurred after the trade war exuberance: The loss of momentum is important here for bears, because the position only appears to be an advanced one when in reality it can open up the entire swing. This is true of 90% of news flow positions. Good luck all those trading the "opening move" ... EUR bulls can achieve the initiative with a skilful breakout. While invalidation will only come into play below 1.10 . As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | CAD Market Commentary 2020.01.09Interesting price action in USDCAD after another round of soft data from Canada. Poloz has a lot of work to do tonight if BoC are to move as rate markets are materially underpriced, especially on the front end. Expecting a dovish ‘fireside’ with early signs of encouraging demand above 1.30 this morning. Starting to cover shorts after the break through 1.304x has opened a move towards 1.31 and 1.317x, the original entries in the 2020 macro map: USDCAD LMT BUY 1.304x => TP1 1.310x => TP2 1.317x | STP 1.299x The reflation theme which is a bi-product of the dollar devaluation allowed CAD to outperform in the immediate term however now USD is in full control as CAD macro prints have started to turn down. As long as USD remains in first gear we will have room to test the topside again, as there are two sides to the currency pairs, rather than CAD strength in this move we are trading USD weakness. As usual jump into the comments with your charts and questions to open the discussion, best of luck all those trading live and thanks for keeping the support coming with likes!!!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.01.09AUD completing the retrace and starting to form support as Trump confirms the end of the circus. Australian local macro prints have started to improve, particularly in the housing sector and on the trade side. For the menu tonight we have retail sales in play and a leg back towards 0.69x looks imminent. On the macro side, RBA expected to cut once more in Feb to 0.5% and the rate cycle is already over. If data continues to improve and follow the solid unemployment prints we saw last week, then they will have missed the boat to cut once more as income tax cut later in the year. This will be enough to keep AUD in bid over 2020 and 2021 with a clean zig zag trading-wise. While the multi-year chart is crystal clear: Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side: We will do a deep dive into the USD side with NFP tomorrow for the flows in the live telegram with a round of chart updates and strategy outlooks. GL all those in AUDUSD, thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling in!
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.01.09A good time to update the Cable chart as we approach the first macro driven event risk of the year with NFP. As mentioned a few times the range we are trading is crystal clear with 1.33xx highs and 1.31xx lows. While the market is holding the key support at the lows, I maintain a view that a correction back towards the highs is both corrective and necessary to allow positioning for Brexit impact leg while the risk to the thesis comes from a break below the lows in the range and reassessment is only required should we break below. I therefore look to sell the strength back towards 1.33 - 1.35 which will be enough to cap the highs for 2020. Should we see any strength extend in the short-term it will be a superb selling opportunity for those interested in adding weight to the in-house macro view. For those wanting to track the large swing we have been trading since the UK elections I would recommend the following diagrams: GBPUSD GBPAUD EURGBP UK markets pricing a Conservative majority as a "positive resolution" to Brexit is complacent and allows us an opportunity to capture those out of position and mis-pricing UK market access beyond 2020. To date we have traded a tremendous amount of conjecture around the Brexit chapter, yet many are quickly to forget we are yet to trade the "fact" leg. ...Best of luck to all those looking to trade NFP, a clean and simple spike back to the top of the short-term range in play for Cable. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and comments !!!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.07EUR ticking higher for the open as liquidity returns from the holiday period. On the whole I am happy with how the euro has held, while we discussed yesterday macro hands betting on the reflation theme are hardly moonwalking but we are making progress nonetheless. Continue to buy dips here, I am becoming increasingly aggressive with sizings, however certainly aware that 1.12xx is proving difficult. A sustained failure to break here will see us retrace towards the lower end of 1.11xx otherwise its business as usual with the initial target at 1.125 (see below diagram). Additionally, we can comfortably lean on the macro charts over the coming months as we see the green shoots reappearing in Europe: Those mid and long term plays can continue to eventually target 1.21xx and 1.25xx in macro portfolios with most the hard work to begin the move largely complete: While the Weekly technicals are much clearer: Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the momentum break to form. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EUR Recycling We are talking here about a swing high which has to be broken. What can be doubtful here, you may ask... Of course we must direct the attacks towards the highs, but how does one do that if for some reason the highs cannot be shaken? Would it not be opportunistic to sweep the highs and entice profit taking before recycling longs. This is effectively what happened last week in EUR: Here the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance: Sellers defence does not look very promising; after a possible escalation with US-Iran tensions or with FED USD devaluation via flooding supply side. So buyers play the breakout... exchanging the base for a new trend in 2020-2021: As usual thanks sooo much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
4