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The American indices are once again pushing upwardsAll of them break the key short-term resistance. After having passed that period of weakness characterized by bearish sessions, as we expected after Powell's conference. The three downtrends, which were due to start on March 20th post-FED, did not reach the respective support areas where we had hypothesized the target zones. As regards SP500, when price was at 2820, we had identified the possible target at 2640 points. While the descent stopped at around 2780 points. Same thing for DOW JONES, it hit the SL. NASDAQ, which should have retraced from 25750 and 7370 points to reach the support levels set at 25000 and 6900 points, stopping however at 25340 and 7250 respectively.  These descents would have had to last many sessions (forming a mini-trend in the short / medium term ) having been reabsorbed in 4-5 sessions. It is very likely that now the prices will go to reach the successive resistances. Those are placed behind of the absolute maximums to then again suffer a bearish attack. Always towards the key supports mentioned above. To summarize: we expect a continuation of this very short-term uptrend. Targets on the static resistances placed respectively at 2906/2930 points (SP500), 26700 (Dow Jones) and 7660 points (Nasdaq). We enter on a long position on the SP500 with target the first resistance set at 2906 and we keep it in the portfolio for a few sessions. Our opinion the main trend must undergo a reversal because of the fundamental configured scenario.
DJ:DJILong
by BFCMInvest
Focus will shift to additional ECB easing very soonThe removal of 2019 hikes is worth highlighting because it does not fully support the story we are being told from macro data meaning the bar is set high for any further hikes. History tells us it’s very unusual for the Fed to pause for a long time in hiking cycles before resuming meaning this is likely the end of hikes in the cycle. See tradingview for a more detailed review of the Fed. Focus will soon shift back to additional easing from the ECB who are more dovish than Fed so any upside will remain capped in EURUSD. I remain confident in the 1.09 forecast for Q2. We have PMIs tomorrow, inline or overshoots there will be enough to turn the ship south...otherwise we are set for more consolidation. Good luck
Short
by ridethepig
1
"One and Done" ... An update to EURUSD for FEDOn the monetary side, Fed taking the spotlight so let’s start digging into the details… Expecting the Fed to lower the “dots” signalling one hike in 2019 … a “one and done” approach. June seems unlikely now as the Fed has started to focus on inflation to keep equity markets happy. My base case is for a hike in December meaning the dollar looks underpriced at current levels and with a lingering ECB easing risk premium EURUSD will start the leg lower after we clear Fed and PMIs. From a technical standpoint we are sitting at strong resistance, any kneejerks higher (unlikely) will attract a lot of selling interest. Best of luck all those trading Fed
Short
by ridethepig
2
In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian indexIn line with other major global index, in the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index. The price reached the resistance area between 21450 and 21550 points. A break on the upside would have led to a continuation of this uptrend up to the next resistance zone located between 21700 and 21900 points. A rejected, ( because as we said "In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index" ) seems to be happening, should bring the price to retest the key level of support identified by the EMA 200 periods and passing about 20500 points. European Macros  The fundamental scenario remains strongly uncertain for the Eurozone. Especially after the last ECB meeting in which Draghi stated that it is not only possible to change monetary policy due to slow growth. It is necessary to restore a low-cost liquidity injection to stimulate the economy by the end of 2019. Fed Effects  The uncertainty of the Fed is added to the ECB. In fact the Fed would seem to have decided to not raise interest rates. At least throughout this year, if not also the next. Due to a possible market destabilization with a restrictive monetary policy. In any case, even this choice has left uncertainty among investors who in the short term could liquidate long positions favoring a reversal of world indices.
FShort
by BFCMInvest
What the market expects from the fed ?Macro view  The market expected that the FED on this occasion would not change the value of the interest rate. This had already been discounted in previous sessions. At a fundamental level, the US economy is undergoing a slowdown due also to the shutdown and this, together with the unclear monetary policy, is causing uncertainty. Investors want to see if this aggressive monetary policy can continue or if a period of stalemate has begun. The possibility of a rate cut if the situation remains stagnant. Rates  For now it is very likely that interest rates can be resumed in the next FED meetings, as the indicators on which the FOMC is based are aimed at this. The rates can be cut towards the end of 2019 if the market does not liked this monetary tightening. This hypothesis would lead the indices to follow the strongly bearish December trend. Index  At this time DOW JONES, (like SP500 and NASDAQ) tested the respective resistance area and was rejected downwards. The target to which it will aim in the very short term (if Powell makes it clear that there will be further increases soon) will be the area set at 25000 points, then continue towards 24200 if the level just mentioned should have been violated to the downside. The same goes for SP500, which will target 2640 points. The NASDAQ  should go back to testing the 6900.
DJ:DJIShort
by BFCMInvest
What will happen in the fed? No rate hikesTarget No rate hikes and this is the effect on the eur/usd pair: the price is heading towards the resistance area placed at 1.14.So what will happen in the fed? No rate hikes today. The American interest rate will be published, which will almost certainly remain unchanged. It is very likely that the euro will strengthen further against the dollar, moving between 1.14 and 1.144. From here, after Powell's speech, we think it is a good point to reposition ourselves short. The first target on the support set at around 1.12 ( the next one will be 1.10 ) Monetary policy issues What do investors expect from today's fed conference? Investors expect to understand the intentions of the Fed's next moves and its monetary policy: the market, with the stable and positive US economy, expects Powell to resume the aggressive policy adopted throughout 2018. This again means huge investments and speculations in favor of the US dollar.
Short
by BFCMInvest
Wait For GOLD to Retrace to 1270.00 Level Before Going LONG!Its no doubt that Gold is bullish in a longer term view, however for those of you who prefer a greater risk to reward ratio it might be favorable to wait for the yellow metal to retrace towards the 1270.00 level before executing a LONG trade. Have a look at the main chart, where the steep upward channel has been broken and pierced the daily 50 EMA and currently its on the path to form a H & S pattern on daily TF. If broken, the yellow metal could test the ascending long term trendline beneath and potentially offer a chance to go LONG with a greater RR chance. Fundamentally speaking, the FOMC meeting scheduled tomorrow will decide the fate of yellow metal in a short term view. A dovish FOMC update has already been priced in by the markets and a particular point to focus on tomorrow's meeting will be the DOT plot and unwinding of the FED balance sheet. Many analyst still feel the FED will hike rates one more time in JUNE and currently the market has priced in 0 rates hikes this year instead of 2 as predicted at the end of last year. Therefore it remains to be seen what happens all in all for you patient GOLD BULLS its advisable to wait for the price to retrace before going LONG for a chunky risk to reward ratio. cheers This just represents my analysis for this pair and its not a signal of any type. although i am already SHORT on the yellow metal, shall the LONG chance arrive i will post the details of entry in a new thread.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FX618Analysis
An update to the EURUSD chart after a retrace from ECBThe latest rebound from the bottom of the channel has given a soft recovery. We are approaching key resistance areas and for those who are bearish on the USD you will need a constructive break above 1.13 to show anything meaningful in this recovery. I don't subscribe to the view that we have seen the highs in Dollar and expect these flows to continue well into the summer 2019. I am positioned as most of you already know for 1.09 and even 1.06/1.05 if we see maximum pain with a no-deal Brexit. For those who are trading the longer-term perspective , I would encourage you to view the monthly chart attached, this is a view I have maintained since last year and still expect a higher low to develop over the 1.03 lows from 2017. This will mark a very interesting buying opportunity, as the noise of a European collapse will have reached maximum volume and most will be screaming for a break of parity. Nevertheless, we will be talking more about this in a few months. All the best to those who are trading live.
Short
by ridethepig
The day after DraghiYesterday, Mario Draghi announced a new round of long-term and favorable conditions loans for the banking system. The new series of operations will be launched from September 2019 and will end in March 2021. The operations will be carried out every three months and each will have a two-year maturity. In addition, the ECB has confirmed what analysts had expected despite the last meeting at the end of 2018 (which suggested that in September 2019 there could have been a rise in rates), that is: there will be no change in the monetary policy adopted in the last years, keeping fixed interest rates at least until the end of 2019, but it is very likely that this policy will also be maintained during 2020. All of this, leaves macro analysis unchanged, it is likely that for the next few weeks the EURUSD will be laterally between 1.12 and 1.14, and then proceed in its main bearish trend with final target at 1.08 as soon as Powell resume monetary tightening. However, we expect a devaluation of the US dollar until March 20: our first target is 1.14 in the short term and then the area between 1.10 and 1.08.
Long
by BFCMInvest
Gold: still safe (BUY)Up and Down The price having started going upward to test the resistance placed in area $ 1350 has created a series of sales which brought it back down again, with a retest of the static support located at 1280 $. Both technically and fundamentally the scenario has not changed: the trend remains bullish and would be invalidated in the medium term only if the static holder at $ 1265 is violated downwards, and there was a daily closing below it. Technical and fundamental From a technical point of view, the main EMAs are open upwards (uptrend) and the ichimoku cloud is supporting the price, obviously taking tf into consideration from the daily up. From a fundamental point of view, the uncertainty that revolves around the Fed and its monetary policy in 2019, expected softer than expected, is doing devalue the US dollar, which in the coming weeks / months, will be the crucial factor that will bring this commodity to test the area of about $ 1400 by the end of the first half of 2019.
TVC:GOLDLong
by BFCMInvest
The game of Aud/UsdPrice movementIn In yesterday's session price is returning near a key support zone. In fact, at 0.7144 we find the dynamic support identified by the EMA2O daily, while at 0.7108 is located the 76.8% of the Fibonacci retracement: this area should not yield but, because of the macroeconomic scenario that has been configured, it should bounce the price towards a target around the resistance identified by the EMA200 daily at 0.727; if it were broken upwards, the trend will continue until the next static resistance ( 0.733 ) Fed & Powell The Fed, which will not raise rates in the very short term, and therefore with a softening of monetary policy, the dollar should continue to lose strength until Powell's signals of change arrive.
Long
by BFCMInvest
GOLD Could FALL Before Reaching 1370 level Amid Risk ON AppetiteAs seen, GOLD is trapped in a range bound trading and is currently en route to the crucial resistance level of 1370. However the real question lies whether the GOLD momentum can continue towards this crucial resistance amid a possible and likely RISK ON appetite in the financial markets? Today FED chairman Powell speaks which could cause intense volatility in FX markets, however it seems the market has already priced in of what is to be expected of his speech today. Markets are already in a RISK ON appetite mode amid the resolution of trade war and tariffs being delayed by the president. What is Risk-On Risk-Off Risk-on risk-off is an investment setting in which price behavior responds to and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on risk-off refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patterns. During periods when risk is perceived as low, the risk-on risk-off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments; when risk is perceived to be high, investors have the tendency to gravitate toward lower-risk investments. SOURCE : www.investopedia.com With the current trade war already coming close to a resolution, RISK ON currencies in this scenario such as AUD, NZD and the EURO could appreciate whereas RISK OFF assets and currencies such as GOLD, CHF and JPY could depreciate. However keep in mind these safehavens are not evenly correlated. For instance JPY could fall if the market are on FULL RISK ON mode whereas CHF could fall slightly given its assets are backed by GOLD itself. On the Topic of GOLD, the yellow metal is precious and perceived by many as a good future investment given its rising longterm value! Therefore fundamentally it remains to be seen what the chairman of FED has to say today and if the US-SINO trade deal can be agreed soon and what are their terms behind the deal. Technically speaking GOLD is headed towards the crucial 1370 resistance level where it has bounced off on a numerous occasions. Currently the price is confined in a rising steep daily channel as shown on the main chart. Should anything drastic happen such as a trade deal being closed to agreed then GOLD may breakout of the channel and head towards the rising trendline beneath. On the flip side if the trade talks are slow, then we can expect GOLD to respect the channel and head towards the 1370 level. After reaching there it could be a possible scenario that it keeps climbing or reverses to the lows depending on the technical and fundamental picture at that time. It remains to be seen what happens. this is just my analysis and not a trade signal. shall the criteria meet i will post the trade signal in the new thread. cheers
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by FX618Analysis
USDCHF ShortThis pair is about to reach its current resistance 1.012. Getting ready for possible reversal in case USD index reverses down too and doesn't rise all the way to 100. Shorting this pair @1.005 or near it (depending on how price action plays out later) after Powell's speech later (so far I'm bearish in USD overall). Initial TP is @0.9985-1.00 and SL @1.001. www.bnnbloomberg.ca Daily: Weekly: Confidence: B (will wait for how Powell's speech will go later. Also need to close this trade too before other USD econ news later this week)
Short
by aiza_belle
EUR/USD and the Fed !New channel The price has once again reached a key level on a weekly time frame: at the price of 1,127 a static support has formed, which tends to bounce the price and keeping it within this channel, with resistance at 1,146. Very short, short and medium term The trend remains bearish in the short term, while in the medium term it continues to be strongly bearish: with the macroeconomic scenarios that have been configured, the target area is between 1.10 and 1.08, despite this we believe that this week there may be a price rebound from this area because of the conference that will be held today by the president of FED Powell, who should still reassure the market, supporting the new very short-term monetary policy that will not lead to other restrictions. Consequences This should result in a sale on the US dollar by investors, devaluing the USD against the other majors, and therefore also against the euro (which remains highly unstable currency and will continue to depreciate for most of 2019). Join us for further analysis on: Instagram : www.instagram.com Telegram: t.me Facebook Page: www.facebook.com Web: www.bfcminvest.com
by BFCMInvest
Is this an opportunity on USD/CAD ?The price has invalidated the uptrend in the very short term, going to break down the level placed at 1.317, that was a static support that should have rebounded the price and continue the long trend. After Powell’s words, investors continued to sell the US dollar, making it weaken against all the majors. The Fed has been clear: at this moment it is difficult to think about further increases in interest rates, as the US economy is responding well at these levels (2.25 / 2.50%). At least for the entire first half of 2019 it will be difficult for him to return to his steps. The market will be hostile to a strengthening of the US currency. This pair is particularly uncertain because the Bank of Canada also does not intend to change its monetary policy, so it is very likely that it will continue to proceed sideways for the next few months in the channel between the support at 1,298 and resistance at 1.33. It is advisable to remain flat until the fundamentals change or one of the two levels mentioned above is broken. It should be noted that on a daily tf, the price has reached the dynamic support identified by the EMA200, which seems to have held: it could be a good opportunity to enter the market from here with target the level of minor importance placed at 1.326 with a “buy“ order.
by BFCMInvest
Nasdaq 100: NAS100 Powell Rides to the Rescue Nasdaq 100 NAS100 After an early session fail at the neckline Nasdaq duly found the support it needed but it arrived just above the 6698 line and then shot higher as Powell rode in to the rescue. It's since powered straight to the next target at 6902-6919 after a high at 6917. Thank you Jerry. Thanks to him that IHS completed in a few minutes flat :) It's shot up 3% today and is a little over-extended right now. As with the other indices covered tonight it would be handy if it came off from here, breaking below 6900 to trigger further weakness back to 6795 where it should bounce again (and from the neckline at lowest) in the event of weakness once 6900 is lost. And if we don't get the expected consolidation from current levels it can push higher still to 6955 at likely best overnight before it begins to consolidate from there - if so will have to see how it holds up at 6903-0 on any retests to judge how strong it's likely to be during tomorrow's session. Has to break above 6920 to scalp long to 6955 and then has to break above 6960 to follow long again (in event of no consolidation) to 7096.
FX:NAS100Long
by sumastardon
AUDUSD Short - Bat Formation and Inverted HammerAUDUSD was seen resisted again at a 2-month long resistance level 0.73. A bat formation is formed this time and an inverted hammer has appeared right at point D of the bat formation. As the dollar has retraced significantly after break above 97, it is very likely that the dollar may resume appreciation. Powell has stayed hawkish on rate hike too. Therefore, with a strengthening dollar and a bearish formation, AUDUSD is very likely to create a wave or two of depreciation.
Short
by AlgoVenture
EURUSD bearish below 1,1768- Jerome Powell in the spotlightHello traders, Jerome Powell is going to deliver his first testimony about monetary policy today at 16:00 GMT +2. Either today and tomorrow´s testimony in the senate are going to be crucial in order to catch more interest rate hike signs. Currently EURUSD is facing a clearly bearish medium term trend, unable to clearly break the 1,1768 level, quoting below the 50 SMA and unable to break the 0,386 FIBO neither. ECB is not expected to have interest rate hikes at least untill summer 2019, even though inflation and GDP growth are aproaching targets. While EURUSD remains below 1,1768 the bearish trend will prevail ; lets see Powell´s comments!! Enjoy your trading! Have a look at my previous forecasts: JPM UKOIL
by Adrian_Armentia
Outlook ahead of FOMCHello Traders! We're expecting the Fed's to raise the interest rates by a quarter at 14:00 EST and we're also awaiting on Powell's first speech. My bias remains bearish for the FX:EURUSD but i do expect a push higher prior to the drop to new lows given that the current rate hike is already priced in and what everyone is waiting for is the details on the plans for the year and Powell's commentary. The institutional data we have indicates slight long profit taking activity at the Weekly/Monthly supply which emboldens our short bias. In the case of a push higher im looking for the 1.2340 area to look for shorts but if we have a break & close below 1.2240 i will scale in my shorts from that point forward with a 1st target around 1.2180
Short
by MarioAlzuri