Is this an opportunity on USD/CAD ?The price has invalidated the uptrend in the very short term, going to break down the level placed at 1.317, that was a static support that should have rebounded the price and continue the long trend. After Powell’s words, investors continued to sell the US dollar, making it weaken against all the majors.
The Fed has been clear: at this moment it is difficult to think about further increases in interest rates, as the US economy is responding well at these levels (2.25 / 2.50%). At least for the entire first half of 2019 it will be difficult for him to return to his steps.
The market will be hostile to a strengthening of the US currency.
This pair is particularly uncertain because the Bank of Canada also does not intend to change its monetary policy, so it is very likely that it will continue to proceed sideways for the next few months in the channel between the support at 1,298 and resistance at 1.33.
It is advisable to remain flat until the fundamentals change or one of the two levels mentioned above is broken.
It should be noted that on a daily tf, the price has reached the dynamic support identified by the EMA200, which seems to have held: it could be a good opportunity to enter the market from here with target the level of minor importance placed at 1.326 with a “buy“ order.
Powell
EURUSD Daily quite overdue for an uptrend. EURUSD Daily quite overdue for an uptrend. Given the political issues going on between Trump and Powell, we might see a retest of 1.20 soon either by the end of December 2018 or early 2019. EURUSD has been falling since the 31st of January 2018, its pullback to 1.20 levels is quite overdue.
Make or break day tomorrow - Employment numbers and PowellNo point in watching futures tonight since it'll all change when the employment figures are released at 8 am then Powell has a conference at 10:15 am. Watch for whipsawing then KA-POWELL! big movement up or down.
I'm almost all cash, waiting to see what happens.
Nasdaq 100: NAS100 Powell Rides to the Rescue Nasdaq 100 NAS100
After an early session fail at the neckline Nasdaq duly found the support it needed but it arrived just above the 6698 line and then shot higher as Powell rode in to the rescue.
It's since powered straight to the next target at 6902-6919 after a high at 6917.
Thank you Jerry. Thanks to him that IHS completed in a few minutes flat :)
It's shot up 3% today and is a little over-extended right now.
As with the other indices covered tonight it would be handy if it came off from here, breaking below 6900 to trigger further weakness back to 6795 where it should bounce again (and from the neckline at lowest) in the event of weakness once 6900 is lost.
And if we don't get the expected consolidation from current levels it can push higher still to 6955 at likely best overnight before it begins to consolidate from there - if so will have to see how it holds up at 6903-0 on any retests to judge how strong it's likely to be during tomorrow's session.
Has to break above 6920 to scalp long to 6955 and then has to break above 6960 to follow long again (in event of no consolidation) to 7096.
AUDUSD Short - Bat Formation and Inverted HammerAUDUSD was seen resisted again at a 2-month long resistance level 0.73.
A bat formation is formed this time and an inverted hammer has appeared right at point D of the bat formation.
As the dollar has retraced significantly after break above 97, it is very likely that the dollar may resume appreciation. Powell has stayed hawkish on rate hike too.
Therefore, with a strengthening dollar and a bearish formation, AUDUSD is very likely to create a wave or two of depreciation.
EURUSD bearish below 1,1768- Jerome Powell in the spotlightHello traders,
Jerome Powell is going to deliver his first testimony about monetary policy today at 16:00 GMT +2. Either today and tomorrow´s testimony in the senate are going to be crucial in order to catch more interest rate hike signs.
Currently EURUSD is facing a clearly bearish medium term trend, unable to clearly break the 1,1768 level, quoting below the 50 SMA and unable to break the 0,386 FIBO neither.
ECB is not expected to have interest rate hikes at least untill summer 2019, even though inflation and GDP growth are aproaching targets.
While EURUSD remains below 1,1768 the bearish trend will prevail ; lets see Powell´s comments!!
Enjoy your trading!
Have a look at my previous forecasts:
JPM
UKOIL
Outlook ahead of FOMCHello Traders!
We're expecting the Fed's to raise the interest rates by a quarter at 14:00 EST and we're also awaiting on Powell's first speech. My bias remains bearish for the FX:EURUSD but i do expect a push higher prior to the drop to new lows given that the current rate hike is already priced in and what everyone is waiting for is the details on the plans for the year and Powell's commentary.
The institutional data we have indicates slight long profit taking activity at the Weekly/Monthly supply which emboldens our short bias.
In the case of a push higher im looking for the 1.2340 area to look for shorts but if we have a break & close below 1.2240 i will scale in my shorts from that point forward with a 1st target around 1.2180
Time to sell AUD/USDConsidering our chart, we can observe a price reduction. If we evaluate our daily chart from the point of view of wave analysis, then we will see the 4th wave, which indicates a decline in this pair. And soon we expect the 5th downward wave. Especially after the statements of Jerome Powell, we expect the strengthening of the reserve currency.
Therefore, we will consider long-term models that indicate a rapid decline in this pair.