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GBP/USD calm ahead of UK GDPThe UK economy has been struggling and Friday's GDP is expected to indicate negative growth, with a market consensus of -0.1% q/q for the third quarter. In Q2, GDP showed a small gain of 0.2%. August GDP is expected at 0.0% m/m, after a 0.2% gain in September. A soft GDP report will raise speculation about a recession and could weigh on the pound. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill appeared to backtrack earlier today after saying on Wednesday that market pricing of a rate cut in August 2024 was "not totally unreasonable". Pill stated on Thursday that the BoE expected to maintain restrictive rates for an extended period, but would not make any promises. On Wednesday, Governor Bailey dismissed the possibility of rate cuts in the short term, and Pill may have wanted to put to rest any speculation that his remarks contradicted Bailey's comments. The BoE maintained rates at 5.25% last week and holds its next meeting on 14 December. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell didn't discuss monetary policy in public remarks on Wednesday, and the markets will again be looking for some hints about monetary policy when Powell speaks later in the day. Earlier this week, two Fed members sounded hawkish about inflation. On Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker said he expected rates to stay higher for longer and there were no signs that the Fed would trim rates in the near term. This followed Dallas Fed President Logan, who said that inflation remains too high and looks to be trending towards 3% rather than the Fed's 2% inflation target. Logan warned that the Fed would have to maintain tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation back to target. 1.2287 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 1.2340 There is support at 1.2214 and 1.2175
by OANDA
NZD/USD edges higher ahead of manufacturing PMIThe New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5926, up 0.26%. New Zealand's manufacturing sector has been in decline for seven consecutive months and little change is expected from the October PMI, which will be released on Friday. The market consensus stands at 45.0, compared to 45.3 in September, which marked a 2-year low. Business activity in the manufacturing sector has been dampened by weak global demand and elevated borrowing costs have exacerbated the prolonged slump. China has been struggling with a significant slowdown, which is bad news for the New Zealand economy, as China is New Zealand's number one trading partner. China is grappling with deflationary pressures, and the October inflation report was softer than expected due to a sharp decline in the price of pork. Inflation in China fell by 0.2% y/y in October, down from 0.0% in September and lower than the market consensus of -0.1%. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.2%, versus a 0.2% rise in September and below the market consensus of 0.0%. If deflation continues, it could cause a downturn in inflation expectations that could dampen consumer spending. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell didn't discuss monetary policy in public remarks on Wednesday, and the markets will again be listening carefully as Powell speaks later today. Earlier this week, two Fed members sounded hawkish about inflation. On Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker said he expected rates to stay higher for longer and there were no signs of rate cuts in the near term. This followed Dallas Fed President Logan, who said that inflation remains too high and looks to be trending towards 3% rather than the Fed's 2% inflation target. Logan warned that the Fed would have to maintain tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation back to target. NZD/USD continues to test support at 0.5929. The next support line is 0.5858 There is resistance at 0.5996 and 0.6069
by OANDA
No such thing as a Hawkish pause? USD overrated? Has the market adopted the term “hawkish pause” to bolster USD bids? It could be possible that, in an attempt to drag out USD strength just a little bit longer (euro has weakened –4.20% in past 6 months), the term Hawkish Pause has been thrown around with not-enough criticism. Not many people have confidence in the US Fed to really make the hard decisions (transitory inflation anyone?), including being able to start up the rate hiking engine again (this year or next) after a few pauses. If they do, will they do it in a timely manner? Jerome Powell, this morning noted in his public address that the committee hasn’t discussed what it might plan for its December decision but dismissed the idea that it would be difficult to start hiking again (if the conditions in the market require such an action). There are two more inflation readings and two more labor market readings before the last decision of the year. Maybe investors have shrugged off the hawkish pause rhetoric this morning though. The Australian dollar is pumping, up 0.94% at last look, while the dollar has fallen more than half a percent against the yen. The euro is only up 0.16%.
by BlackBull_Markets
Market Update - October 20th False ETF news gives bitcoin a boost: Crypto markets were frenzied on Tuesday after Cointelegraph posted an unconfirmed tweet that the SEC had approved a spot bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin prices jumped over $2,000 USD in minutes before the news was deemed false. GBTC discount to NAV continues to tighten: The discount between shares of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and the net asset value of the fund is at its lowest level in almost two years. After starting the year at a nearly 50% discount, GBTC’s discount has moved to ~13%, reflecting increased expectations that a bitcoin spot ETF will be approved in the near future. Uniswap introduces 0.15$ swap fee: The move was described as an effort to “sustainably fund operations.” UNI is trading about even over the past seven days following the news. The European Central Bank moves closer to a digital euro: The bloc’s central bank announced that it had moved from the investigation phase to the preparation phase of its digital euro project. ECB president Christine Lagarde tweeted that they “envisage a digital euro as a digital form of cash that can be used for all digital payments.” Treasury yields continue upward trajectory, and Powell sees continued strength in the US economy: US treasury yields have continued to put pressure on equities, with the 10-year treasury touching 4.98% for the first time since 2007. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the continued strength of the US economy may warrant further tightening, but didn’t foreshadow an immediate policy shift. 🏖️ Topic of the Week: Liquidity Pools ⏭️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Canadian dollar calm ahead of retail salesThe Canadian dollar has edged higher on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3688, down 0.23%. Canada releases retail sales later today, which could result in volatility from the Canadian dollar. Canada wraps up the week with the August retail sales report. The markets are bracing for a deceleration, with an estimate of -0.3% m/m, compared to a 0.3% gain in July. On a year-to-year basis, retail sales are projected to slow to 0.2%, down sharply from 2.0% in July. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates at 5.0% for a second straight time at the October 25th meeting. The BoC has raised rates to high levels but has only hiked on two occasions in 2023, which indicates that on the whole,  interest rates are where the central bank wants them. I don't expect to see the BoC trimming rates before mid-2024, but at the same time, the BoC will do its utmost to refrain from further tightening. The takeaway message is that we should expect rates to remain in restrictive territory for some time yet. Last week's inflation report showed a decrease of -0.1% for both headline and core CPI in September,  which beat expectations. On a year-to-year basis, headline CPI dropped from 4.0% to 3.8% and the core rate eased to 2.8%, down from 3.3%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that inflation remained too high and that the 2% target would be difficult to reach if economic growth did not cool. Powell didn't provide any hints about future rate policy, saying that rate decisions would be based on data and the economic outlook. The Fed has been sending out a "higher for longer" message, and Powell's focus on high inflation seemed to reiterate this stance. USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3643. Below, there is support at 1.3585 There is resistance at 1.3716 and 1.3774
by fisherkj4
$GOLD PRICE ACTION : (READ THE CAPTION) The four-hour gold chart shows an uptrend. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud, which is a confirmation of bullish momentum. Therefore, the market is expected to reach the first resistance. Key levels The first resistance is at $1984.32, which corresponds to the 127.20% Fibonacci level. The second resistance is formed at $2006.86. Intermediate support is located at 1971.03 and can lead to a bullish return of the market. The first support level is at 1949.45, which indicates a strong support zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn6964649
Market Analysis Ahead of Fed MeetingThe FOMC is set to have their 2 day meeting. Market consensus is for a pause in rate hikes. Will the Fed shock the market like the ECB just did with their rate hike? The treasury yields market is still in a very strong uptrend & inflation expectations over the last 2 CPI prints have come in hotter due to energy. the markets are in a ver y precarious spot with the small caps & equal weight indices on the verge of breaking down. Will tech save the day?
BLACKBULL:WTI
0
by Trading-Capital
Fed's Rate Hike Looms Over US30US30 is likely to remain volatile in the coming weeks, as investors assess the risks to the economy. The latest macroeconomic news is not good for the market, with consumer sentiment falling and inflation remaining high. Fed officials have signaled that they are likely to raise interest rates by 0.75% next week, which could further dampen economic activity. Technical traders should be aware of these risks and use fundamental analysis to make informed trading decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by CandlesofKarma
Market Update - September 1st 2023 Grayscale ETF ruling boosts BTC: A U.S.Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Grayscale in their lawsuit against the SEC, which challenged the agency’s denial of an application to convert Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to an ETF. GBTC is currently the largest Bitcoin fund with over $16.3 billion USD in AUM. The ruling led to higher prices for BTC. Powell speech and cooling economic data led to higher market prices: Markets were higher following Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole last Friday, in which no surprises were indicated. Cooling GDP and jobs data further bolstered these gains. PEPE trends down following rug pull rumors: PEPE experienced a sharp drop in price last week as rumors of a rug pull circulated. The anonymous developer who claimed to be in control of the funds now says that the remaining 10 trillion tokens are safe and will remain until a “use or burn arises.” X receives Rhode Island payments license: Twitter Payments LLC, the payment branch of X, was approved by Rhode Island for a license request to store, transfer, and exchange Bitcoin and other digital assets on behalf of its users. This marks another step in Elon Musk’s quest to turn X into the “everything app.” Read More Here ⬅️
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
EUR/USD slips to 10-week low after soft German business climateThe euro has posted limited gains at the start of the trading week. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0803, up 0.08%. The week ended on a sour note as German Ifo Business Climate fell for a fourth straight month in August to 85.7, down from an upwardly revised 87.4 and shy of the market consensus of 86.7. Germany's GDP flatlined in the second quarter, after two straight declines. The eurozone's largest economy is sputtering and a string of weak data provides support for the ECB to take a pause at the September meeting. Federal Chair Jerome Powell delivered the keynote speech at the Jackson Hole summit on Friday and his message was one of caution and on the hawkish side. Powell reiterated that the battle to lower inflation to the 2% target "still has a long way to go". The Fed has lowered inflation to around 3% but the hardest part could be bringing it down to 2%. With regard to rate policy, Powell was cautious, saying that the Fed would "proceed carefully" in deciding whether to raise rates or pause and wait for additional data. There was no mention of rate cuts, a signal that the Fed isn't looking to trim rates anytime soon. The markets raised the odds of a rate hike in September in response to the speech, from 14% a week ago to 21% at the time of writing. ECB President Christine Lagarde also attended the Jackson Hole meeting but like Powell, played it safe with remarks that we've heard more than once in the past. Lagarde said that the ECB's rate path would be data-dependent at each meeting and that it was critical that inflation expectations remained anchored at the 2% target. Lagarde tried to sound optimistic, saying she was confident that inflation numbers would look different at the end of 2023. Eurozone inflation is heading in the right direction but is still high at 5.3%. The central bank meets next on September 14th and it's unclear whether the ECB will raise rates for an eighth straight time or take a pause and monitor how the economy is performing. The benchmark rate is relatively low at 3.75%, but the eurozone economy has not looked good and higher rates increase the chances of the weak economy falling into recession. . EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0831. The next resistance line is 1.0896 1.0795 is a weak support level. Below, there is support at 1.0731
by OANDA
AUDCHF Finally we have the reaction!On AUD/CHF, we have a long setup after the price began to rotate in the 0.56-0.5630 zone, providing significant confirmations. Currently, we're in a demand zone, and the price seems to be supported by a strong trendline that holds considerable liquidity from the ascending price. Additionally, we have a price that broke two H4 swing highs; the first one lacks an interesting entry point, while the second presents an appealing entry at the 0.5657 level, where we have an H1 demand. Personally, I'll wait for the price to retrace into this zone before considering a long entry. In the case of a market entry, I would set the target around 0.5730, where we have an H4 swing high, and place a stop around 0.5602, below the market low. Happy trading to all.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USD/JPY breaks above 146, Tokyo Core CPI dips to 2.8%USD/JPY has posted small gains on Friday, enough to push above the symbolic 146 line. On the data calendar, Tokyo Core CPI dipped lower and Fed Chair Powell addresses the Jackson Hole Symposium later today. Japan released the Tokyo Core CPI earlier today. This is the first inflation release of the month, making it a key event. In August, Tokyo Core CPI rose 2.8% y/y, down from 3.0% in July and just under the consensus estimate of 2.9%. Despite the drop in inflation, the indicator has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for some fifteen months. Earlier in the month, the so-called "core-core index", which excludes fresh food and energy, remained at 4.0%. This points to broad inflationary pressure and raises questions about the BoJ's insistence that inflation is transient. The BoJ has said it will not exit its ultra-loose monetary policy until wage growth rises enough to keep inflation sustainable around 2%. Still, the markets have been burned before by the BoJ making unexpected moves and are on guard for the BoJ tightening policy, especially with the yen at very low levels. The markets are keeping a close eye on the Jackson Hole symposium, with Fed Chair Powell and BoJ Governor Ueda both attending. Powell delivers a key speech on Friday and Ueda will participate in a panel discussion on Saturday. If either one provides insights into future rate policy, it could mean some volatility from USD/JPY on Monday. What does the Fed have planned? That depends on which Fed member is addressing the media. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Thursday that he didn't see a need to raise rates further, absent any unexpectedly poor data, but added that the Fed wouldn't be lowering rates anytime soon.  However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that rate increases might still be necessary. The Fed is likely to pause at the September meeting, but what happens after that is unclear. USD/JPY is facing resistance at 146.41, followed by 147.44 There is support at 145.54 and 144.51
by OANDA
DLTR drops after earnings follows the market down DLTR dropped on a mild earnings beat. It is now below a volume shelf at 128. Indicators including the MACD suggest a reversal as bullish divergence is showing. The mass index supports a reversal. On the dual time frame RSI, the low TF green line is above the higher TF black line which is weaker. Overall, DLTR could retrace to 133 based on the Fib retracement tool However, I will not take this trade until price crosses above the POC line. !33 will be the first target and 134.5 the second target being the mean VWAP. I will take a call on options trade as well. I will only enter if the general market indices appear to be upgoing which is a challenge given the upcoming Powell speech at Jackson Hole If the market is down turning, the trade will be paused and reassessed at early next week.
NASDAQ:DLTRLong
by AwesomeAvani
US2000 BEARISH SCENARIOAll focused on the forthcoming remarks by Jerome Powell, set to disrupt the situation tomorrow, which could potentially shift investor sentiment from buying to selling. The US2000, also known as the Russell 2000, represents a small-cap index that follows behind the larger indices such as DJIA, S&P, and Nasdaq. In recent months, the Russell has demonstrated weaker performance in contrast to its counterparts. The impending increase in interest rates might introduce new challenges to the market. Indicated by a symmetrical parabolic pattern, there's a suggestion that a bearish trend could extend around 130-150 points, mirroring the height of the curve. Nevertheless, the equation "Powell = Power" still holds true. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by legacyFXofficial