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USD/CAD pares gains, Canadian inflation easesThe Canadian dollar spiked and gained 50 points after Canada released the May inflation report but has pared these gains. USD/CAD is unchanged at 1.3158. Canada's inflation rate fell sharply in May to 3.4%, down from 4.4% in April. As expected, much of that decline was due to lower gasoline prices. Still, this is the lowest inflation rate since June 2021.The core rate, which is comprised of three indicators, fell to an average of 3.8% in May, down from 4.2% a month earlier. The decline should please policy makers at the Bank of Canada, as inflation slowly but surely moves closer to the 2% target. The BoC cited the surprise upswing in inflation in April as one reason for its decision to hike rates earlier this month. With headline and core inflation falling in May, will that be enough to prevent another rate increase in July? Not so fast. The BoC has said its rate decisions will be data-dependent, and there is the GDP on Friday and employment next week, both of which will factor in the rate decision. The US released a host of releases today, giving the markets plenty to digest. Durable Goods Orders jumped 1.7% in June, up from an upwardly revised 1.2% in May and crushing the consensus of -1%. The core rate rebounded with a 0.6% gain, up from -0.6% and above the consensus of -0.1%. Later today, the US publishes the Conference Board Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales. Wednesday is a light day on the data calendar, with the Fed will in the spotlight. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a "policy panel" at the ECB Banking Forum in Sintra, Portugal, and investors will be looking for some insights into Fed rate policy. As well, the Fed releases its annual "stress tests" for major lenders, which assess the ability of lenders to survive a severe economic crisis. The stress tests will attract more attention than in previous years, due to the recent banking crisis which saw Silicon Valley Bank and two other banks collapse. There is resistance at 1.3197 and 1.3254 1.3123 and 1.3066 are providing support
by OANDA
NQ1! Supply Demand Levels 6/25I am expecting more movement from Wednesday to Friday due to Powell speaking. Staying open minded to what may happen as we have been consolidating and getting tighter in range. BULLS: 15264 as we hit this area multiple times, it is the double top of Jan/March 2022, and we can't seem to break over it now. We have a 3HR supply and 15M supply to break through. If we can get through this area, looking for a push to 15475 6/16 highs to retest by EOW or by next week. BEARS: 14910 is the next 1HR S1 pivot target that I would like to see hit first. This would retrace some of the bull move from 6/12 and seems like a solid retracement. If we can break through this level, 14780-14800 looks like a solid 4HR demand area and where we consolidated before the big break to the upside. This seems like a promising bounce area. These targets may seem out of reach if based on a slow volume week, but with news speeches, we may get the momentum to move 300-500 pts this week (.5-1% a day). Link to chart: www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by tradeswithjess
SPY Outlook 06/26-30/2023Last week’s newsletter, we leaned bearish and the market made lower lows 4 out of the 4 trading sessions. With more fed speakers this week, PCE and Consumer Confidence data releases, and political turmoil in Russia, uncertainty can cause volatility in the market bringing down equities. Technical Analysis: AMEX:SPY is still due for a retest of the bull flag and daily channel breakout around 429.57. Should this area not hold, a .618 retrace would suggest we pullback to the gap below at 424-423. I do think we revisit that, and possibly test the daily fair value gap below 419. Bulls will want price action to stay above the weekly 432.03 level. If this holds, we can target the gap above at 437.45-438.97. Bears will want to try and and break below the red uptrend trendline. If we cannot hold 432.03, we can target the previous bull flag breakout at 429.61. If that doesn’t hold, we could target the 50% retracement where we bullflagged in the beginning of the month around 426.70. An even deeper target is the the daily gap below at 423.95-422.92. Should this gap fill, I would flip long. Upside Targets: 436.00 → 437.45→ 438.97 → 441.21 → 443.90 Downside Targets: 432.03 → 429.61 → 428.78 → 426.70 → 425.14
AMEX:SPY
by peterjames_6
short term buy on crude oilU.S. Oil still stuck in consolidation, making big ranging moves. Monday was a federal holiday, Juneteenth. New York -Traded Texas intermediate, or WTI did not make much movement upon opening. Sunday or Monday, closing with a bearish candle at $90.87. Tuesday dropped 1% or 100 pips to 69.82 area, then regaining by the end of the day closing at 71.63 Wednesday Fed Chair J. Powell had a testimonial that continued into Thursday. This testimony comes a week after a hawkish interest rate “skip” Last week the federal Reserve was careful to word skip, and not a pause so the markets would not react in a negative way. The dollar soared, along with U.S. stock, with oil tumbling. Top investors and analysts stated the Fed wanted to appear to be hawkish in the next FED meeting so the market would not lose everything it has gained; stating they see it very unlikely the FED will continue to raise rates and believe the fed is done raising rates. The two-day testimony Powell was sure to emphasize raising of rates is not over, and he is standing strong on bringing inflation down to 2%. A hawkish Powell has pushed oil down nearly 4% Wednesday and Thursday. Alongside a hawkish Powell the BOE raised interest rates by half a percentage point. The U.K.’s interest rate is now at 5%; the highest it has been since 2008. The BOE decided to raise rates drastically this time due to U.K. inflation will take longer than anticipated to bring down. The U.K. is right behind the Federal with interest rate at 5% and the U.S. at 5.25% pausing for the first time for 10 straight FED meetings. The U.S. Crude inventory was released Thursday. The forecast for the week ending on June 16 was 1.873M actual came in as -3.831M. Crude oil inventories is reported on a weekly basis for the pervious week. This report measures the number of barrels of commercial oil held by U.S. firms, reported by the EIA (Energy Information Administration. Last week inventories fell greater than expected implying Oil demand is greater which is bullish for oil. It is typical for oil demand to be greater this time of year with summer travel. Wednesday marked the first day of the summer. The report caused oil to spike just a little, as other economical news overweighed the bullish report. Crude oil moves against the dollar, with hawkish news for the dollar it is bearish for oil. Powell being adamant about continuing to raise rates and the BOE raising rates could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Crude oil has been ranging (consolidating) in the same zone on the 4hr and daily timeframe since May 03. 2023. Oil has rejected off the demand zone two time and rejected the supply zone twice as well. Only the daily a Double top can be seen forming. Oil would need to break and close below the neckline for the double top to confirm a continued sell down. If neckline is broken and closes below oil can go to pervious rejected low of $65.50 and 63.96. The Fib retracement was used to confirm retracement levels of potential TP areas. If oil rejects at the neckline, it is possible the range will continue you. If it rejects the neckline a potential buy with retracement/reversal key areas being $72.71 and $74.20. Crude oil would need to break and close above $74.95 for a confirmation for a long term buy.
TVC:USOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn36761102
GBPUSD: My 4 scenarios for this weekThese are just my ideas, what I’m expecting, and why, with this week’s the big fundamentals. Overview Big market-moving news this week with Wednesday’s UK CPI, Thursday’s BoE Interest Rate Decision and Forecast, there is also FED Powell’s testimony in between the UK events on Wednesday. Several things could play out with the UK news, which is what my scenarios are based on. I’m expecting Powell to be hawkish because even though it’s clear that the US is on top of inflation, they are still double their target and thanks to their economic performance they have room to keep tightening and can still avoid recession, imho. The BoE on the other hand have a massive predicament. Inflation is out of control, far worse than the other G7 economies. Interest rate rises are squeezing the economy, UK mortgage rates are now hitting 6%. In my opinion another 1.25% interest rates will cause recession. The BoE moved too slow and are behind inflation, they have to keep hiking to do anything about it, but there will be a tipping point where the market sees this as a negative for the GBP. UK Inflation / Interest Rates BoE have consistently under-estimated inflation through this period. This time their forecast is higher than the previous month forecast (8.5% compared to 8.3% previous, inflation fell to 8.7% last time so I think they’ve been more realistic with their prediction this time). If inflation is coming down (I think it is), then we could see a better than forecast reduction (red), which could be bad for GBPUSD. If it comes in lower (red) then it’s ‘more’ likely there’ll be a 0.25% rate hike, this is priced in, and I think this will cause GU to fall. If BoE are brave enough to go with the 0.5% outside prediction, then this could cause GU to rise. If Wednesday’s CPI number shows inflation is above predication (green) (and likely to be rising as it was 8,.7% last time and the predication this time is 8.5%), then this further demonstrates that the BoE have been way off the mark in controlling it compared to the rest of the G7, which is not good. I do think short term this will be positive for GU, but only for banks making money, it’s terrible for the UK economy and the BoE. If it is green and BoE only raise rates by 0.25% then I think this may send GU down as it’s a further demonstration of their ineptitude. If they do go with the 0.5% hike in this scenario, then this could send sterling higher in the short term. Either way and in each scenario, I think GU will struggle to get beyond 1.29 in this visit based on long term dynamic trendline, overall down-trend, a bubble of a credit based economy, better performing US economy and the US being the global currency (and expecting China performance below expectations), etc etc, and breathe…. Also, in technical news, I’m also seeing some divergence on the RSI, and GU is overbought. My Scenarios Here’s my scenarios on the chart, end of today I’m expecting to be around the 1.27 level on the chart based on retracement from Friday’s high and DXY having some room to move up to resistance (around 1.03), but let’s see what happens today and I'll review this again this evening. 1. Red CPI / 0.25% Hike This is an inflation figure that comes in below the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.25%. This is what I think will happen and it will mean reversal. 2. Red CPI / 0.5% Hike This is an inflation figure that comes in below the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.5%. This is what should happen if the BoE are brave enough, but I think it will worry markets about recession. 3. Green CPI / 0.25% Hike This is an inflation figure that comes in above the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.25%. This is a terrible situation, inflation going up and the BoE still not having the balls to make up for lost time and tackle it head on. 4. Green CPI / 0.5% Hike This is an inflation figure that comes in above the 8.5% prediction and the BoE raising rates by 0.5%. In this scenario this is what I believe the BoE should do, it will likely cause GU to go up, but as I’ve said I personally think topside is limited by the prevailing downtrend. In this scenario there will be growing fears of a recession, change of government will be pretty much a given, so overall I still think this will be bad for GU in the medium term. These are just my thoughts as we go into the next few days. Interested to hear your comments so I can keep learning and adjusting my thinking!
by Finchcliffe
29
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/22/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2023 - PR High: 15049.25 - PR Low: 15024.00 - NZ Spread: 56.25 Powell set to testify again at B-period. Economic Events: 08:30 – Initial Jobless Claims 10:00 – Existing Home Sales - Fed Chair Powell Testifies 11:00 – Crude Oil Inventories Strong inventory drop during Wednesday's session - Finally showing retracement on daily print - No immediate vol spike for Powell Wednesday Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Open ATR: 225.48 - Volume: 22K - Open Int: 248K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From ATH: -10.4% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 15533 - Mid: 15247 - Short: 14675 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQU2023
by mv3trader5
GBP/USD dips after inflation jumps, BoE up nextThe British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. GBP is trading at 1.2724 in Europe, down 0.3%. GBP/USD spiked after today's inflation release but in currently in negative territory. The UK released the May inflation report today, and the results were a major disappointment, to put it mildly. With inflation falling for two straight months, there were hopes that the Bank of England's rate policy was slowly working and the downtrend would continue. The monthly readings showed that headline and core CPI eased, but the annualized readings were worse than expected. Headline CPI remained at 8.7%, above the consensus of 8.4%. Core CPI rose from 6.8% to 7.1%, above the consensus of 6.8%, the highest level since March 1992. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, is considered more important, and the 0.3% gain is a huge disappointment for the BoE. The Bank of England won't have much time to mull over the inflation figures, as it announces its rate decision on Thursday. There's little doubt that the BoE will have to raise rates for a 13th consecutive time, and today's inflation numbers mean there is a strong possibility of an oversize 0.50% increase. The BoE finds itself between a rock and a hard place, as it struggles to contain inflation without causing a recession. The resilient labor market has complicated the BoE's attempts to cool the economy, and the markets are projecting that the Bank Rate, currently at 4.5%, won't peak until 6%. High inflation has already caused a cost-of-living crisis, and more rate hikes will only exacerbate the pain. Fed Chair Powell begins two days of testimony before Congress on Wednesday. Lawmakers are expected to grill Powell about the Fed's rate policy. The Fed paused at this month's meeting but is expected to raise rates at the July meeting. Powell has said that he can pull off a soft landing that will avoid a recession and jump in unemployment, but he'll likely have to answer pointed questions from lawmakers who are concerned that higher rates will damage the economy. 1.2719 remains under pressure in support. Next, there is support at 1.2645 There is resistance at 1.2848 and 1.2950
by OANDA
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/21/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2023 - PR High: 15256.00 - PR Low: 15238.75 - NZ Spread: 38.75 Powell set to speak at B-period - 10:00 – Fed Chair Powell Testifies Tuesday session traded in wide range - High volatility during morning session - Closed practically unchanged Evening Stats (As of 12:05 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Open ATR: 222.16 - Volume: 16K - Open Int: 246K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From ATH: -9.1% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 15533 - Mid: 15247 - Short: 14675 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQU2023Long
by mv3trader5
GBP/USD lower ahead of UK inflationThe British pound is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2739, down 0.41%. The UK releases the May inflation report on Wednesday and BoE policy makers will be hoping that inflation continues to trend lower. Inflation dropped in April to 8.7%, decelerating for a second straight month. The consensus stands at 8.4%, and the good news is that those awful readings above 10% appear to be over. On a monthly basis, inflation is expected to fall to 0.5% in May, down from 1.2% in April. Inflation appears to have peaked and is heading lower, but nobody at the Bank of England is smiling. The UK is expected to have one of the highest inflation rates in the G-20 this year at 6.9% and the BoE's 2% target is miles away. Finance Minister Sunak has set a goal of lowering inflation to 5% by the end of the year, which seems feasible if inflation continues to downtrend in the coming months. The BoE will be in the spotlight on Thursday when it makes its rate announcement. The markets have priced in a 25-basis point hike at 70%, with a 30% chance of an oversize 50-bp increase. If inflation falls as expected to 8.4% or lower, the MPC should be able to proceed with the 25-bp hike, although central banks have a tendency of surprising the money markets. In the US, it's an unusually light data calendar this week. There are no tier-1 releases on Tuesday, and the markets are looking ahead to Wednesday, with Jerome Powell testifying before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell will have to clarify to lawmakers the Fed's interest rate path, as the Fed paused last week after ten straight hikes but expects to renew hiking in July. 1.2719 is under pressure in support. Next, there is support at 1.2589 There is resistance at 1.2848 and 1.2950
by OANDA
GOLD: awaiting the FOMC decisionIn a few hours we will know if FOMC decides to raise interest rates by 25bp or if there will be a pause in monetary policy. Having said that, if we look at 1H chart we still have the same technical structure (see analysis below), which is still valid at the moment. With this in mind it would be great if TVC:GOLD triggered a swing as shown on chart (first bearish then bullish), I say that because I really like the Pin Bar at 1,971 . What will happen on gold market? In the short term it's hard to say, but today's session will certainly be our driver for a few sessions/weeks. PREVIOUS ANALYSIS (Click on Chart below) FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS (Long term) (Click on Chart below) PRE-FOMC ANALYSIS (Click on Chart below) Trade with care! Like 🚀 if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheAnonymousBanker
3
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC – 14/06/23 This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ll start by saying we’ve had a decent week so far as well as month and will not be wanting to give anything back to the market. For that reason, we’re sharing the levels we have for the potential move and the regions to look for a reaction in price. It is expected to move, especially during the press conference which will take place after the statement. We would say best practice is to wait for them to take the price where they want, let is settle and look for signs of a reversal before jumping into a trade. We’ve seen a big range forming here over the last few weeks which has been used to accumulate orders, maybe now enough for Gold to find its feet and make the move many traders are anticipating. We have the immediate levels of 1950-55 order region which we are now above and potentially looking for the price to settle pre-event around here. We have the higher levels of 1980-85 which we were looking for on the KOG Report so target region for longs that are held from below could be around that level. If price is driven up into that region, we would be looking for resistance higher to potentially see a reaction in price and a confirmed reversal before even attempting to short it. On the flip side, we have order region 1930-35 and below that the extreme level of 1915-07 on the break. If the price is driven down, then we will potentially be looking here for a reaction in price and upon confirmed reversal signs look to take the long trade back up. As we’ve said above, we’re sharing our view with everyone but please do your own research. We’re not likely to enter any new trades, rather let the runners we have open run or close at break even. The best trades and set ups will come once the price has been taken to it’s level. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
EURUSD before FEDCPI data came out yesterday and EURUSD hit the 1.0800 resistance and is holding at those levels for now. Today we await the most important news. At 20:00 Bulgarian time, the FED will announce the decision on interest rates, and 30 minutes later the press conference will begin. Regardless of the decision, we will see large fluctuations and it is advisable to reduce the risk beforehand. The objective remains confirmation of the upward movement here, with possible stops in both directions.
by ForexTrendline
3
DXY: It won't happen, but if it does... 😱More than 97% of analysts say the FOMC won't raise interest rates tomorrow, but what will happen to Dollar Index, FX:EURUSD , TVC:GOLD and FRED:SP500 if Powell decides to hike interest rates by 25bp instead? Most likely, tomorrow's announcement will be our driver at least for the whole summer, because this event will have a strong impact on the market. So we just have to wait 24 hours, and we will have the verdict! ...And you? what do you think?
TVC:DXY
by TheAnonymousBanker
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!KOG Report: In last week’s KOG Report, we said we would be expecting to adapt our plan over the week as we were expecting the range and choppy price action to continue. We suggested sticking with the same plan and levels from the week prior which worked very well to give us the trades within the range. The short-term swing we were expecting for the move to the downside came in the later part of the week after we managed to take the long trade back up into range high giving us a short opportunity we wanted. So, we wanted to short down, then long up before shorting down, instead, we got the long up, short down and long up. A decent week on the markets again but a very frustrating range to have to deal with. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week we can expect some more choppy and whipsawing price action during the first half due to FOMC being on Wednesday. We’re expecting them to want to clear the voids and grab liquidity from the highs and the lows, so for that reason we’re going to start by suggesting we continue to scalp the range for the first initial sessions while we assess the price action. We’re then going to be looking for the two key levels to hold price, either from above to go short, or, from below to go long. Key levels are the order region 50-55 with the break below taking us into 30-35 previous order region which are levels we would expect to see a reaction in price. Resistance levels now stand at 80-85 key level and above the institutional level 90-95 which price needs to remain below for this to continue with another decline. So, in summary, we have a potential range now forming between 40-45 support and the resistance levels of 80-85 with extension into 90-95 for the spike. Scalps in-between with KOG’s bias of the day and the levels with the view to take the longer position from the levels illustrated on the chart. Its going to be another difficult and frustrating week to navigate so please exercise patience in your trading, wait for the price to come to your levels, don’t force the trades just to be in the market. Always remember, cash is also a position in the market. We’re going to take it easy until FOMC, smaller lots and smaller captures before we hunt for the trade of the week. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
23
Are you dripping into your 401k yet?Are you dripping into your 401k yet? Not bad area to start dripping in imo for longer term positioning. Dovish powell, in reality it was all stated before and thats why we've had the market really for weeks/months softening rate hikes - the real question is when they will actually STOP! Now, we are at key resistance area, I like the next area of resistance 4200-4300. I'd appreciate any pull back for ES & NQ key tip: The market is forward looking Trade your own plan TJ
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trade_Journal