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#BOND crisis to fuel monetary expansion The Fed is damned by inflation if they print, damned by bank runs if they dont print. And with recession on the way, history shows we could plumb to new lows if the Fed only prints enough to backstop banks and pensions. Early 2000s and early 1930s were two such cases where the Fed aggressively lowered rates for well over 18 months but markets continued to trend lower anyway. But 2008 ushered in central bank quantitative easing, so with QE at the Fed's disposal, it is more likely the growth of M2 will accelerate which will keep inflation stubbornly high if not higher. A new factor that wasn't present before is that we have increasing M2 from China and Japan which has been a large driver of the market bounce we've seen in stocks and crypto since the start of the year. The 2-yr and 10-yr rates are heading lower in a hurry. CME Fed futures currently predicts one more 25 bps hike to a terminal rate of 500-525 then three consecutive drops of 25 bps. Higher inflation would become the standard as the Fed would be forced to accept a higher inflation target well above 2% which Ray Dalio had predicted in one of his published pieces.
FRED:WALCL
by BallaJi
US100 awaiting POWEL speechThe calm before the storm Meanwhile, the market is waiting for what the heck he's going to say, a gold spot for trading has been created. No matter what Powell states, the price will move in one direction or another. Enjoy trading safely. Use always SL Don't bet more than 1% of your balance. Your money is finite, but the chances of making millions are Billions. Note: the trades are triggered once the price crosses the channel boundaries, thru pending orders. This is not a financial adv!
FX:NAS100
by Mat_cl
Is the DXY in trouble!?? Before we start all views are my own and are based from my overall personal research. As we have covered in previous markups and breakdowns we are taking our major lows on the larger timeframes on the DXY. Here we have a pretty simply markup here for DXY iam only looking at this for a short term idea overall i strongly believe we are set for some serious downside on the USD and with this iam waiting for a true shift to show itself... As many countries begin to decouple from the USD and the fed continues pushing the price to unsustainable levels with consistent printing of new currency we are watching history unfold in front of our eyes... Taking a deeper look into the history & future of the USD. The control and power that the US has had in the past is drastically dwindling... if you follow the power trial to its source it will and always has lead us back to the federal reserve. Now the above is an issue for many different reasons... the main reason being no country or persons should be governed or controlled by a bank or reserve, which for a long time has been the case... this leading to countries having economic collapses along with huge depts placed on them in times of crisis, when this happens to a country it 90% of the time means one side is gaining while the other is losing. due to this we are and will continue to see more countries disconnect and distance themselves from the USD. Once we get to our tipping point where the USD has truly lost its grip on the global economy it will be to late to revert from its course, which i believe will take us to lows we've not seen in decades, ultimately leading to the collapse of the USD... Now iam no economist nor a financial expert, but I urge everyone that reads this to do your own research to the state of the USD and how the fed is "dealing" with the matter. To sum up, iam looking for prices to drop below 100 on the DXY in the coming months and possibly even weeks... Whatever the outcome trader stay safe and stick to your plan!
TVC:DXYShort
by PipSurfingSociety
Great down day for $SPY (+25% return)Shorted $AAPL at close to yesterday's high ($155-156) for a close to 25%+ gain with SPY being down -1.53% today. What comes next? 1/ TESTIMONY DAY 1 $DXY ripped through the supply zone during Powell's testimony. $SPY bulls will want to see DXY make it back in the zone for SPY to move 401+ which has acted as near-term resistance (anything goes when it comes to Powell). 2/ POSITIONING UPDATE Still holding my swing position for $AAPL (see previous linked idea). I expect more drawdown before I consider trimming,
AMEX:SPY
by gigavest
Swissie rally fizzles, SNB's Jordan up nextUSD/CHF has rebounded on Tuesday, ending a rally that saw the Swiss franc climb over 1%. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9344, up 0.40%. Switzerland released the February inflation report on Monday and the reading was higher than expected. CPI rose 0.7% m/m, up from 0.6% in February and above the 0.4% forecast. On an annualized basis, CPI climbed 3.4%, edging up from 3.3% and higher than the forecast of 3.1%. These inflation numbers would be a dream come true for most major central banks, which are struggling with inflation levels two or three times higher. Still, the Swiss National Bank is concerned about high inflation, as its target is 0-2%. The SNB was widely expected to raise rate by 50 basis points at the rate meeting on March 23 and the uptick in February inflation cements the likelihood of such a move. Swiss National Bank Chair Jordan will make an appearance later today and is likely to address the rise in inflation. The SNB does not provide forward guidance for its rate policy, but the central bank has projected an inflation rate of 2.4% for 2023. With the cash rate currently at 1%, it's a safe bet that we'll see another hike in June of either 25 or 50 basis points. The continuing tightening should provide a boost to the Swiss franc, but traders should keep in mind that the SNB has not hesitated to intervene in the foreign exchange market when the Swiss franc became too strong for its liking. In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will be in the spotlight as he testifies before a Senate committee later today. The Fed has remained hawkish and after a host of strong January releases, the markets have shifted their expectations closer to the Fed's stance. It was only a few weeks ago that the markets were projecting a pause followed by rate cuts, but this has changed to pricing in three more rate hikes this year. There is a lot of uncertainty in the air about inflation and interest rates and the markets are hoping that Powell's comments will provide some clarity. There is resistance at 0.9381 and 0.9420 0.9304 and 0.9224 are providing support
by OANDA
DXY Outlook 7th March 2023The DXY continued trading lower overnight as the price broke below the 104.40 support level (now turned resistance) and looks on track to test the round number support of 104. This move lower is most likely driven due to the strength of the Euro as ECB member Holzmann indicated the need for 4 more 50bps rate hikes, which saw the EURUSD climb steadily to the upside to approach the 1.07 resistance level. With Chair Powell due to testify at Congress today, expect to see higher volatility on the DXY. With markets anticipating a hawkish sentiment from the Feds, the DXY could bounce from the 104 support level to retest the 104.40 resistance level. However, in a trend-following scenario, we could look for the DXY to break beyond the 104 key support level to trade down to the next support level of 103.78. In summary, brief downside potential with the likelihood of a rebound if the Feds (Chair Powell) conveys a strong hawkish sentiment.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
3
GBPNZD - I've got a trade idea for you!GBPNZD - I've got a trade idea for you! As we await for Powell! I found a this great trade idea, it's a break to either direction...Now remember, we could get false break out! Highs: 1.94570 Lows: 1.93620 Pattern: Triangle A break to either direction, break of 200 EMA area takes you to 0.382 & 0.236Fib areas. However, if we break above the trendline down, I expect target areas 1.95 half areas and perhaps even 1.96 half area matching the 1.618 area! Have a great day ahead, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
Canadian dollar eyes Ivey PMIThe Canadian dollar is coming off a relatively quiet week but that could change as there a host of key releases this week. Ivey PMI kicks things off later today, followed by the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday and the February employment report on Friday. Canada's Ivey PMI recorded a massive rebound in January, climbing from 33.4 all the way to 60.1 points. A reading above 50.0 points to expansion. The reading is expected to remain strong in February, with an estimate of 57.7 points. Canada's economy ended 2022 in an unimpressive fashion, posting a growth rate of 0.0% y/y in the fourth quarter, compared to 2.3% in Q3. This was much lower than the market estimate of 1.5% and the Bank of Canada's projection of 1.3%. On a monthly basis, December GDP contracted by 0.1%, down from 0.0% in November and below the estimate of 0.0%. The Bank of Canada meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.50%. A non-move would be significant, as the BoC hasn't taken a pause since the current rate-tightening cycle began in January 2023. Governor Macklem has signalled to the markets that he wants to take a pause in tightening, and the weak GDP report will support the BoC easing off the rate pedal as the economy shows signs of slowing. The steep hike in rates has pushed inflation lower, as it fell to 5.9% in January, down from 6.3% a month earlier. What will the BoC do after tomorrow's rate decision? The BoC would love to pause rates throughout the year, but Macklem has made clear that a pause is dependent on supportive data. There is also the complication that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue hiking several more times this year, and the BoC does not want to fall too far out of sync with rate levels in the US. In the US, this week's key events are Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual testimony before Congress and the nonfarm payroll report, both of which could move the US dollar. If Powell provides any hints about further rate hikes, the US dollar could respond with gains. Nonfarm payrolls was red-hot in January with 517,000 new jobs, but this is expected to be a one-time bump, with the estimate for February standing at 200,000. The surprisingly resilient labour market has the Fed concerned about wage pressures, and a strong wage growth release could raise market expectations of higher rates. 1.3701 and 1.3784 are the next resistance lines 1.3571 is a weak support line, followed by 1.3478
by OANDA
On the lighter side of thingsThe questions in recent times... - Is the federal reserve going to slow down on future rate increases? - Could we see a cut in rates in 2023? - With terminal rates still undecided, could it be revised higher? Perhaps the height of the Central Banker of the US Federal Reserve could be a leading indicator of interest rate decisions! (I'm not being serious, but it was interesting to see the correlations) I started trading FX when Chair Bernanke (5ft 8in) was in the prime position and oversaw a steady decline in interest rates (ignoring the fact that the Global Financial Crisis caused significant turmoil in the markets) The current Chair, Jerome Powell stands at 5ft 10in, an increase from Chair Yellen at 5ft 3in. A change in the Central Banker height trend has led to US interest rates climbing higher from 0% to the current of 4.75%!! Chair Greenspan (5ft 8in), was THE first central banker I've read about and probably what got me interested in the financial markets, ushered in a strong US economy in the 90s. Greenspan oversaw rate hikes as he too battled with "high" inflation in 1997. So, perhaps instead of overthinking about employment, CPI, GDP, QE, and YCC, all we have to do is pay attention to the change in the height of the Federal Reserve Chairperson. What do you think?
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/USD punches past 1.21, Bailey up nextThe British pound is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2107, up 0.47%. The pound is recovering from a nasty slide of almost 400 points, in which it dropped below the 1.20 line for the first time since Jan. 23. The equity markets were nervous ahead of Fed Chair Powell's remarks at an event in Washington on Tuesday. There was concern that Powell would push back against the recent rally and deliver a hawkish message, especially after the sizzling nonfarm employment report last week. Powell decided not to chastise the markets and essentially reiterated what we heard at last week's meeting. That message is that inflation is moving lower but needs to fall much further and further rate hikes are likely needed. Powell has said more than once that the Fed policy will not be swayed by one or two economic reports, and he held true to that view by not shifting his stance due to the hot employment release. Equity markets responded positively to Powell's message while the US dollar was slightly lower against most of the majors. How much further will the Fed tighten? The markets have revised upwards their forecast for the terminal rate to 5.1%, up from below 5% before the NFP report. Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday that he expects rates to peak at 5.4%, and a Citigroup note warned that rates could go as high as 6%. The markets are still expecting a rate cut late in the year, despite Powell stating at the FOMC meeting that there were no plans to lower rates. There are no releases out of the UK today. BoE Governor Bailey will be in the spotlight on Thursday, as he testifies at the Treasury Committee Hearings. The BoE raised rates by 0.50% last week and the markets will be all ears, looking for clues as to what the central bank has planned for the next meeting on March 23. 1.1958 and 1.1804 are providing support There is resistance at 1.2035 and 1.2173
by OANDA
GOLD BULLISH SCENARIOGOLD is described as a safe haven against war, inflation, and banking collapse as we can see on the daily chart. The 2 fat red candles are basically 3 interest rate decisions in two consecutive days which were all hikes. Uptrend support shows signs of resuming the previously steady uptrend. The dovish comments from Powel can be interpreted as neutral, in our case here is support for that trend. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by legacyFXofficial
EUR/USD dips to 1-month lowThe euro has fallen for three straight sessions and has extended its losses on Tuesday. Earlier in the day, EUR/USD fell below the 1.07 line for the first time since Jan. 23. German and eurozone numbers have been soft this week, adding to the euro's woes. Eurozone retail sales fell 2.7% in December, worse than the estimate of -2.5% and well off the November read of 1.2%. German Industrial Production came in at -3.2% in December, down from 0.4% in November and below the expectation of -0.6%. Germany is the locomotive of the bloc but the engine is stuttering, which is bad news for the rest of the eurozone. GDP in Q4 contracted by 0.2%, retail sales for December slumped by 5.3% and Manufacturing PMI remains mired in contraction territory. The US dollar received a much-needed boost from the January nonfarm payroll report, as the 517,000 gain crushed expectations. There are no major releases out of the US today, but Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel discussion. If Powell strikes a hawkish tone, the US dollar could extend its gains. There are a host of Fed members speaking this week, and if they reiterate the "higher for longer" stance that the Fed continues to embrace, the US dollar could continue to move north. How will the Fed react to the stellar employment report?  Fed member Mary Daly called the employment release a "wow number" and said that the Fed's December forecast of a peak rate of 5.1% was a "good indicator" of Fed policy. With the benchmark rate currently at 4.5%-4.75%, we're likely looking at two more rate hikes, exactly what Jerome Powell said at the FOMC meeting last week. The spike in job creation has raised hopes that the Fed can pull off a "soft landing" and there is even talk on Wall Street of a "no landing" which would mean that a recession could be avoided. 1.0758 is a weak support line, followed by 1.0633 There is resistance at 1.0873 and 1.0954
by OANDA
DXY GAME ON!! SPIKE COMING FOR THE DOLLAR?Last week's surprising jobs report sticky inflation, and persistent and frothy financial conditions may force the Federal Reserve members into a more hawkish position, forcing them to keep the heat on interest rates and the money supply. Many market participants were looking for a pause in rate hikes as soon as next month and possibly a pivot to lowering rates shortly after. This new data is going against what the Fed was trying to accomplish in this rate hike cycle, which is to keep inflation within mandated guidelines, and to tame loose financial conditions, dashing the hopes for a pivot in policy anytime soon and pushing that pivot out for far longer than some were expecting. This will put upward pressure on bond yields and a dollar so heavily shorted causing the pivot crowd to close out some of their short positions as the Fed puts the screws to the money supply and inflation. This classic cup and handle setup illustrates the effect the Fed Policy may have on the dollar.
TVC:DXYLong
by Journeyman124