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Canadian dollar eyes Ivey PMIThe Canadian dollar is coming off a relatively quiet week but that could change as there a host of key releases this week. Ivey PMI kicks things off later today, followed by the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday and the February employment report on Friday. Canada's Ivey PMI recorded a massive rebound in January, climbing from 33.4 all the way to 60.1 points. A reading above 50.0 points to expansion. The reading is expected to remain strong in February, with an estimate of 57.7 points. Canada's economy ended 2022 in an unimpressive fashion, posting a growth rate of 0.0% y/y in the fourth quarter, compared to 2.3% in Q3. This was much lower than the market estimate of 1.5% and the Bank of Canada's projection of 1.3%. On a monthly basis, December GDP contracted by 0.1%, down from 0.0% in November and below the estimate of 0.0%. The Bank of Canada meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.50%. A non-move would be significant, as the BoC hasn't taken a pause since the current rate-tightening cycle began in January 2023. Governor Macklem has signalled to the markets that he wants to take a pause in tightening, and the weak GDP report will support the BoC easing off the rate pedal as the economy shows signs of slowing. The steep hike in rates has pushed inflation lower, as it fell to 5.9% in January, down from 6.3% a month earlier. What will the BoC do after tomorrow's rate decision? The BoC would love to pause rates throughout the year, but Macklem has made clear that a pause is dependent on supportive data. There is also the complication that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue hiking several more times this year, and the BoC does not want to fall too far out of sync with rate levels in the US. In the US, this week's key events are Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual testimony before Congress and the nonfarm payroll report, both of which could move the US dollar. If Powell provides any hints about further rate hikes, the US dollar could respond with gains. Nonfarm payrolls was red-hot in January with 517,000 new jobs, but this is expected to be a one-time bump, with the estimate for February standing at 200,000. The surprisingly resilient labour market has the Fed concerned about wage pressures, and a strong wage growth release could raise market expectations of higher rates. 1.3701 and 1.3784 are the next resistance lines 1.3571 is a weak support line, followed by 1.3478
by OANDA
On the lighter side of thingsThe questions in recent times... - Is the federal reserve going to slow down on future rate increases? - Could we see a cut in rates in 2023? - With terminal rates still undecided, could it be revised higher? Perhaps the height of the Central Banker of the US Federal Reserve could be a leading indicator of interest rate decisions! (I'm not being serious, but it was interesting to see the correlations) I started trading FX when Chair Bernanke (5ft 8in) was in the prime position and oversaw a steady decline in interest rates (ignoring the fact that the Global Financial Crisis caused significant turmoil in the markets) The current Chair, Jerome Powell stands at 5ft 10in, an increase from Chair Yellen at 5ft 3in. A change in the Central Banker height trend has led to US interest rates climbing higher from 0% to the current of 4.75%!! Chair Greenspan (5ft 8in), was THE first central banker I've read about and probably what got me interested in the financial markets, ushered in a strong US economy in the 90s. Greenspan oversaw rate hikes as he too battled with "high" inflation in 1997. So, perhaps instead of overthinking about employment, CPI, GDP, QE, and YCC, all we have to do is pay attention to the change in the height of the Federal Reserve Chairperson. What do you think?
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/USD punches past 1.21, Bailey up nextThe British pound is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2107, up 0.47%. The pound is recovering from a nasty slide of almost 400 points, in which it dropped below the 1.20 line for the first time since Jan. 23. The equity markets were nervous ahead of Fed Chair Powell's remarks at an event in Washington on Tuesday. There was concern that Powell would push back against the recent rally and deliver a hawkish message, especially after the sizzling nonfarm employment report last week. Powell decided not to chastise the markets and essentially reiterated what we heard at last week's meeting. That message is that inflation is moving lower but needs to fall much further and further rate hikes are likely needed. Powell has said more than once that the Fed policy will not be swayed by one or two economic reports, and he held true to that view by not shifting his stance due to the hot employment release. Equity markets responded positively to Powell's message while the US dollar was slightly lower against most of the majors. How much further will the Fed tighten? The markets have revised upwards their forecast for the terminal rate to 5.1%, up from below 5% before the NFP report. Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday that he expects rates to peak at 5.4%, and a Citigroup note warned that rates could go as high as 6%. The markets are still expecting a rate cut late in the year, despite Powell stating at the FOMC meeting that there were no plans to lower rates. There are no releases out of the UK today. BoE Governor Bailey will be in the spotlight on Thursday, as he testifies at the Treasury Committee Hearings. The BoE raised rates by 0.50% last week and the markets will be all ears, looking for clues as to what the central bank has planned for the next meeting on March 23. 1.1958 and 1.1804 are providing support There is resistance at 1.2035 and 1.2173
by OANDA
GOLD BULLISH SCENARIOGOLD is described as a safe haven against war, inflation, and banking collapse as we can see on the daily chart. The 2 fat red candles are basically 3 interest rate decisions in two consecutive days which were all hikes. Uptrend support shows signs of resuming the previously steady uptrend. The dovish comments from Powel can be interpreted as neutral, in our case here is support for that trend. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by legacyFXofficial
EUR/USD dips to 1-month lowThe euro has fallen for three straight sessions and has extended its losses on Tuesday. Earlier in the day, EUR/USD fell below the 1.07 line for the first time since Jan. 23. German and eurozone numbers have been soft this week, adding to the euro's woes. Eurozone retail sales fell 2.7% in December, worse than the estimate of -2.5% and well off the November read of 1.2%. German Industrial Production came in at -3.2% in December, down from 0.4% in November and below the expectation of -0.6%. Germany is the locomotive of the bloc but the engine is stuttering, which is bad news for the rest of the eurozone. GDP in Q4 contracted by 0.2%, retail sales for December slumped by 5.3% and Manufacturing PMI remains mired in contraction territory. The US dollar received a much-needed boost from the January nonfarm payroll report, as the 517,000 gain crushed expectations. There are no major releases out of the US today, but Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel discussion. If Powell strikes a hawkish tone, the US dollar could extend its gains. There are a host of Fed members speaking this week, and if they reiterate the "higher for longer" stance that the Fed continues to embrace, the US dollar could continue to move north. How will the Fed react to the stellar employment report?  Fed member Mary Daly called the employment release a "wow number" and said that the Fed's December forecast of a peak rate of 5.1% was a "good indicator" of Fed policy. With the benchmark rate currently at 4.5%-4.75%, we're likely looking at two more rate hikes, exactly what Jerome Powell said at the FOMC meeting last week. The spike in job creation has raised hopes that the Fed can pull off a "soft landing" and there is even talk on Wall Street of a "no landing" which would mean that a recession could be avoided. 1.0758 is a weak support line, followed by 1.0633 There is resistance at 1.0873 and 1.0954
by OANDA
DXY GAME ON!! SPIKE COMING FOR THE DOLLAR?Last week's surprising jobs report sticky inflation, and persistent and frothy financial conditions may force the Federal Reserve members into a more hawkish position, forcing them to keep the heat on interest rates and the money supply. Many market participants were looking for a pause in rate hikes as soon as next month and possibly a pivot to lowering rates shortly after. This new data is going against what the Fed was trying to accomplish in this rate hike cycle, which is to keep inflation within mandated guidelines, and to tame loose financial conditions, dashing the hopes for a pivot in policy anytime soon and pushing that pivot out for far longer than some were expecting. This will put upward pressure on bond yields and a dollar so heavily shorted causing the pivot crowd to close out some of their short positions as the Fed puts the screws to the money supply and inflation. This classic cup and handle setup illustrates the effect the Fed Policy may have on the dollar.
TVC:DXYLong
by Journeyman124
Another hawkish RBA hike, but will Jerome Powell turn AUD lower?Summary of the RBA’s February 2023 statement: • The RBA hiked the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.35% • Underlying inflation was above expectations at 6.9% • Strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures • CPI is expected to decline this year due to global factors and slower growth in domestic demand • Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case • The labour market remains very tight • Wages growth is expected to continue picking up due to the tight labour market and higher inflation • The board will continue to pay close attention to labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms in the period ahead • Further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead The RBA hiked the overnight cash rate by 25bp to 3.35% - its highest level since September 2012 – and warned of further increases in the months ahead. The two key words here are ‘increases’ and ‘months’, as it implies more than one hike over the coming months. And with rates at 3.35% it means the market pricing and consensus among economists for a terminal rate of 3.6% is not correct. Given that the employment situation remains robust, inflation is higher than they expected and ‘strong domestic demand is adding to inflationary pressures’, we have several green lights for a hike in March and perhaps in May. Perhaps we’re closer to the elusive pause they teased us with last year, but I see no immediate threat of one in that statement. And whilst the RBA expect CPI to decline as global factors and growth in domestic demands slows, what is going to happen if they do not slow quickly enough? Yep, more hikes. For now, a March hike seems like a done deal and I live in hope they hint at a pause, but I will not hang my hat on that given the data overall and strong levels of inflation. AUD/USD 1-hour chart: The Aussie bounce around 1% after the rate decision, but it is debatable as to whether it can retain its strength if Jerome Powell delivers a hawkish message overnight. The Fed’s rate remains above the RBA’s, with a higher expected terminal rate. AUD/USD found support around the 50-day EMA and has since spiked higher, but bears may want to seek evidence of weakness around 0.6900 as it houses the monthly pivot point and broken trendline. Of course, should Powell fail to deliver the hawkish message, then it leaves AUD (and other FX majors) more wriggle room to unwind some of their post-NFP losses.
Short
by CityIndex
S&P500 - Decision timeHello traders! As stated in our previous post, linked in the description, we are following two main scenarios on S&P500. According to the bullish scenario, the 5 waves labeled in the chart should form a leading diagonal for wave i of C in a primary wave (B) to the upside targeting 4300+. In this case we should now retrace in wave ii of C. According to the bearish scenario, that movement from december's low would be a triple three correction in wave 2/B and thus we may reverse in a wave 3/C aiming to lower targets (3640 big wolfe wave target) or possibly lower lows. See the chart below We managed to catch a short entry at @4076.1, and we are going to hold it (stop loss on entry) following this plan: -if prices arrives to the 3900-3940 area, which is a target in both scenarios (and wolfe's wave target), we will close at least half of the position. At that point we will evaluate whether the decline is impulsive (motive wave) or corrective( three waves). In the former case, once it extends lower and if actvivates the red ascending broadening wedge creating a 5-waves pattern, we will search for adding a short at the retracement. In the latter case, we will evaluate bullish setups around the 3900 area for the green arrow path in the main chart, possibly keeping a piece of the initial short to be hedged for both scenarios. - If prices spikes up and kicks us out at entry, we will reevaluate a short position around the 4125-4135 area, for a completion higher of the above mentioned leading diagonal, ad apply the same plan to the new short. As we e xplained before we believe that fundamental news and events unfold simultaneously with the price action, and all the information available is encoded in chart patterns. Nonetheless, it is clear that the FOMC will bring high volatility, so it is important to reduce risk and have a clear plan prepared. Will update below, happy trading ;)
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by GMR-Capital
6
ridethepig | JPY for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary - JPY for the Yearly Close Of course, the breakout here can be bought after so much consolidation but it takes time. Buyers have no worries, since with a solid centre a loose Japanese fiscal and monetary policy is easy enough to map. Even more than that Kuroda and Suga are well seasoned, the logical link here is for USDJPY lower as a safe-haven flow but my models are picking up on it dislocated from the rest of the board on a capital flow basis. We managed to clear the 2020 targets very early and it will be a pleasure to review: ...we have to be interested in how the crowd can be wrong and how they are being led into the wilderness. Japan understood clearly the issue from the centre, unlike the West which have attempted to use monetary policy to cure private debt problems with issuing more private debt. They have breathed this mantra since 1991, in this sense and others they are miles ahead of the West and had a few decades to get to work on it with fiscal policy. We will go into the macro details in the coming days after the round of G10, EM, Commodities, Equities and Yields maps are updated. Then we can open the discussions for all to join in with the macro charts before we go into the short-term possibilities and build the shop for 2021 and beyond. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
14
end of the carry trade The chart below shows when we started to switch sides in yen at 149.3x on October 18th. Three days later, we had FED 'slip of the tongue' admitting being passed the mid-point in rate cycle, and finally the dollar began to cool. BOJ have no option but to move rates higher. The clock is ticking for a move under $125, unlocking $110 and $100 with the full swing. For those following the flows over the past few years this has been a flawless carry trade, presented in a 5-3-5 corrective sequence (since multiple decades), and finally beginning to unwind. In terms of sequencing, Kuroda is out in April, leaving behind inflation on the doorstep and probably the end of YCC. Yen longs continue to make a lot of sense over 2023, near term watch out for some profit taking at $125. Keep short, add on better levels, $132 will cap the highs.
Short
by ridethepig
10
Fundamental and Technical Analysis | January week 2, 2023Table of Content: 1. The World Bank 2. Jerome Powell 3. Mass Layoffs 4. Corporate Headline 5. Technical 1. The World Bank The World Bank has recently announced a slash in the forecast for global growth. This year's global growth forecast is reduced by nearly half, to just 1.7%, from its previous projection of 3%. It would be the third-weakest annual expansion in three decades, behind only the deep recessions that resulted from the 2008 global financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. “For most of the world economy, this is going to be a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind,” Georgieva said. “Why? Because the three big economies — U.S., EU, China — are all slowing down simultaneously.” Furthermore, The World Bank projects that the European Union’s economy won’t grow at all next year after having expanded by 3.3 percent in 2022. It foresees China growing 4.3 percent, nearly a percentage point lower than it had previously forecast and about half the pace that Beijing posted in 2021. 2. Jerome Powell In a recent statement led by Jerome Powell, he expressed his highest level of hawkish sentiment towards the economy. He noted that inflation is the foundation of a healthy economy and can require the central bank to take actions that are not necessary, but popular. Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with measurable benefits over time. But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy.” He wants to resolve the issue he initially created, previously, he was insistent that inflation was going to be transitory and now there is a clear indication that it is not and will require major efforts to bring it down. Why was Powell hawkish? Financial conditions are unintentionally loosening and he does not want to see it because that will increase the probability of a rebound in markets which could mean a rebound in inflation. - Some of the world’s largest asset managers such as BlackRock Inc., Fidelity Investments and Carmignac are warning markets are underestimating both inflation and the ultimate peak of US rates, just like a year ago. (Bloomberg) - “Central banks are unlikely to come to the rescue with rapid rate cuts in recessions they engineered to bring down inflation to policy targets. If anything, policy rates may stay higher for longer than the market is expecting,” a team of analysts including Jean Boivin, the head of the Institute, wrote last week. BlackRock is underweight developed market equities and it prefers investment-grade credit to long-term government bonds. - JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to 6% to fight inflation, which would be higher than most are expecting this year. 3. Mass Layoffs In order to bring down inflation, the Federal Reserve needs to slow down the economy. It is common sense to see that an economy will not go down until consumers stop spending which results in loss of employment. - One of Wall Street's biggest banks plans to lay off up to 3,200 employees this week, as it faces a challenging economy, a downturn in investment banking, and struggles in retail banking. It is one of the biggest rounds of layoffs at Goldman since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Goldman Sachs is having difficulties in the stock market, underperforming. - Bed Bath & Beyond reported a net loss for the quarter ending Nov. 26, 2022, of $393 million. That's a widening of 29.7% from the $276.4 million loss in the comparable quarter of 2021. Furthermore, the Q3 loss is worse than the retailer's projection last week of a $385.8 million loss. These inadequate results will lay off hundreds or thousands of employees in the company. On the other hand, the stock rallied by double digits, emphasizing again that the stock market likes when employees get fired to increase profit margins. - Coinbase announced Tuesday that it was laying off 950 people, about 20% of its staff. The job cuts come only a few months after another major round of layoffs. The crypto brokerage firm let 1,100 people go in June, about 18% of its headcount at the time. Again, the stock still rallied by double digits. It is notable to mention that the brother of the former Coinbase product manager, Nikhil Wahi, was sentenced Tuesday to 10 months for his role in a scheme to trade on confidential information about when the cryptocurrency exchange was going to list new tokens. A comparable phenomenon I start to visualize from these and recent layoffs is the 2021 stock splits. When firms announced stock splits in 2021, their stock would surge. In 2023, when a company announces layoffs, the stock surges higher (until they run out of liquidity). 4. Corporate Headline - The cyclical growth rebound, possibly triggered by the Chinese reopening, is being priced in or could go higher (major resistance at SPX $4,250). Macau sees deserted streets and Casinos after reopening (Reuters). - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. recorded its first quarterly revenue miss in two years, signaling the global decline in electronics demand is starting to catch up with the chip giant (Bloomberg). This issue will take months to recover as it has to adapt to the oversupplied market. - Apple is Broadcom’s largest customer and accounted for about 20% of the chipmaker’s revenue in the last fiscal year, amounting to almost $7 billion to stop buying key components, and instead, produce pieces themselves. - Blackstone Inc. lost a bid to end rent stabilization at Manhattan's largest apartment complex after a judge ruled in favor of tenants at Stuyvesant Town-Peter Cooper Village. - Wells Fargo, once the No. 1 player in mortgages, is stepping back from the housing market. This is a negative signal for the housing market, prices are too high and few can afford these houses. Once homeowners realize the Fed is not going to ease interest rates anytime soon, the housing market is going to slow down dramatically and individuals are going to lose their homes. Renters and Airbnb will slow down real estate further as they will not be able to pay their mortgages and will be forced to get rid of the houses, greatly increasing the supply. 5. Technical Analysis - Momentum indicators: RSI and MACD moving toward positive momentum and volume remains below average (bullish). - If S&P500 breaks the sloping resistance (channel), prices will rise significantly as individuals will assume the market is already priced-in, plus, showing: a break in pattern resistance; higher-low; and bear market sentiment reducing. - This is a similar pattern to the 2000 market crash where SPX broke a major trend and resistance, then followed to fall 34%. I point out the negative indication in most of my recent analyses, this is because the negative indications are far greater than any positive singular indication in this market environment. Overall, I have not changed my outlook and I am keeping my government bonds. I will take the opportunity of a rise in equity markets to short BTC at higher levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ssavi
$128.50 Temp Bottom on AAPL going into CPI?Once AAPL broke $128.65 last Friday, I've been patiently waiting on a retest. Today at 10:45 we retested, dipped below level and reclaimed it and then retest it again at 12 and has a strong upside move. With this context, the rejection wicks on the 1h candles and the fact that we've broken out of this channel that apple has had for a few weeks, I am anticipating $128.50 to be an excellent long level to lead us to 134+ later this week. Stay tuned and please follow to show support! Thank you.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Macks_MoneyTree
EURUSD Moving Into A Fifth Wave Ahead of PowellMarkets are not moving much. They slowed down after some dollar weakness over the last two trading days. We see US stocks coming down from resistance ahead of Powell today, so it appears that investors are waiting on more details before they may position themselves for a breakout. Will Powell be hawkish or more neutral with comments is the question. I think he may not give us any real bias yet, ahead of US CPI data this Thursday. From an Elliott wave perspective, we see EURUSD coming higher after a nice pullback to 1.05 in the last few weeks, as we in past updates. A sharp and strong recovery l suggests that correction is finished and fifth wave in play. The ideal upward projection for a fifth wave is at 1.0850 so upside can be limited this month. Be aware of a correction.
by ew-forecast
✅WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2023❓ ✅2022 was a difficult year but it has almost ended, so it is natural for us to ask what has 2023 in stock for us! The answer lays in the structure that we both love and hate and it's the FED. Yes, the markets are now governed not by fundamentals and value but by the decision of a bunch of people in suits at the FED. However, we are traders and our job is not to lament the current state of affairs but to make money off of it! But how? Well, according to my analysis, the FED will pivit in the first half of 2023 . After that, the only direction the markets will know is UP! Everything from Gold to Stocks to Crypto will start it's upward journey creating another bubble bigger and more dangerous than the previous one. And while all the sensible people know that this is unsustainable and that this house of cards will one day collapse on our heads, we should remember one of the most profound proverbs of the financial world: The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent! So let's use the irrationality and the exuberance of the current system to fill up our coffers while we can. After the FED pivots I will start slowly buying assets and I recommend you to do follow my lead! Happy New Year to you and your families!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProSignalsFx
15
Using FOMC as trade confluence!TECHNICAL REASON: Price was within the zone of interest and the 4H candle has no lower wick which means everyone is priced one way; could see some profit taking ahead of FOMC FUNDAMENTAL REASON: It is worth noting that to the Fed, to gage inflation and how sticky it is or isn't, they are looking at jobs (more than CPI, PPI etc). Since the job market isn't cracking, it's a little premature to think that tomorrow they're going to come in as dovish as the market is expecting. Powell doesn't even have to necessarily come in Hawkish tomorrow for these moves to reverse. As long as he is less dovish than the average joe on Wall Street is expecting, USD is likely to have a strong reversal upward. Short idea proved to be valid on the back of inflation print, which I believe is not that relevant. The Fed is focused on Jobs more than CPI, PPI etc. If price stabilizes today (likely will), expecting the market to offer 1825 again as a wick hunt and then for XAU to roll over. HOW TO TRADE FOMC I've taken partial profits in anticipation of getting "wicked out" and if this occurs, I will re-enter short around 1825 CROSS ASSET: Everyone seems to be booking profits right now (see chart). The question is whether they will add once they're doing taking profits, open shorts or wait for tomorrow to make up their mind. The next 2.5 hrs are very important. 1. USD is stabilizing within lower boundary of wedge pattern 2. Bond yields haven't broken the low and are holding 3. NASDAQ (most forward looking index) is pulling back from the highs
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by XAUSpeculator
6
SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today?SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today? Lets go through yesterday CPI came out lower so US equities headed higher, DXY headed lower but now look where we are. Today we have FOMC - In my opinion we can't even close above it do we today we took back all move of CPI if we close below it I think we back within these ranges and perhaps bears gain further control. Will Powell be dovish or Hawkish - The way I see it we get coin flip - Santa or the grinch. Trade Journal
SP:SPX
by Trade_Journal
1
$nzdusd - I am bearish but why?$nzdusd - I am bearish but why? I am bearish since yesterday with Powell I took partials off with NZD & EURNZD long - However, I feel even if we get pull back with these pairs we still have more room for a pull back there are key levels I am looking at and pattern in play wedge, its broken out now my stops are from yesterdays highs if we get above that, then this position is no longer in play. However, imo - it's a very good R/R and that's what we like when it comes to trading. 0.64150 Areas as resistance and support zones: 0.63765, 0.63175, 0.62805 Data wise we got BOE & ECB left - lets see what they have in store for us. Don't forget to trade your own plan. Have a great day ahead, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
BTC Pullback to the Ascending Channel Hello traders In previous days, significant events reversed the bitcoin trend, including SEC and Binance and federal Reserve Powell Speech. We predicted that the price needed a correction in the previous post. As you can see in the chart, the price corrected itself to the 0.618 Fibonacci level and now might consolidate over the weekend. On the On-chain side, wallets with more than 100 bitcoins(the picture in the chart from Glassnode) are increasing today, meaning that we can see a correction in this downward trend as well. Since CZ and quant are also clarifying the liquidity of Binance, the sentiment might suggest a cool-down on the price momentum. The price can pull back to the broken channel with technical, On-chain, and sentiment analysis. Note that this is an Intraday analysis and is only valid for a couple of days or even hours. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ What is your opinion? Comment below. If you like the idea, please hit the boost button and follow me so you will get the updates. The information given is never financial advice. Always do your research too. Good luck.
Long
by Crypto_MD
8
I Smell a Santa Claus RallyWith inflationary expectations low, a decrease in CPI and Core CPI, a likely slowing in interest rate hikes, there's too much positive news in the short term to ignore the likelihood of a near-term rally. Still, some hinges on Jerome Powell's outlook tomorrow, but I expect him to keep language as soft as his last speech. Last month, he was still very domineering in his tone on inflation, but the last FOMC meeting was much softer. I expect that again with inflation ticking down as proof of low inflationary expectations. I mean, you can hear people freaking out about the economy everywhere. I don't think inflationary expectations are high lol. Listen to his last speech and you can hear a dramatic tone shift. Here's last FOMC Press Meeting After rate hike in mid November: www.brookings.edu HARD LANGUAGE Here's his "Inflation and the Labor Market" speech on 11/30: www.youtube.com SOFT LANGUAGE Long term? You'll have to look at my first post to see that. Enjoy, and you can find a link to an Economic Release calendar down below for you to save. InTheMoney
TVC:NDQLong
by InTheMoneyAdam
5
$SPX 3 Day Chart 2008 GFC Crash OverlayHistory never repeats but sometimes rhymes right? 2008 MBS bubble dropped the S&P 500 56% from the ATH, assuming we have an everything bubble after 6+ Trillion QE injection since 2020, I see similarities to the Great Financial Crises. Powell made it very clear yesterday, more hikes for longer if inflation is not brought down to 2% target so how will they ever pivot without dropping inflation quickly? Inflation YOY around 7% "according to CPI" assures corporate earnings collapse going forward IMO, so I think the market is over priced Early Pivot or no Pivot. Laszlo, MMGinvest 12/15/2022
SP:SPX
by Laszlo-MMG
4