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Jackson impacting USDAfter an important Jackson, Powell consistent attempt at persuading (or forcing) equities higher is coming to an end and it is time for a round of chart updates across the board. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of tapering and rolling up purchases should be seen as such; USD shorts are increasingly less appropriate; but here the dominating factor between the two currencies is the transition to CBDCs and a race to the bottom. The well being and woes of China who are already miles ahead in their fourth beta test, will determine effectively who cancels the currency first. A very plausible move throughout 2020 since buyers remained hesitant to play the safety leg. I was hesitant to play the leg higher but this decision made things a lot easier. The correct course now is switching to a new course, this time an ABC sequence towards 7.31x (+13% from current levels) into 2022 to offer lasting protection, invalidation for this move will come below March 2018 lows (-3% from current levels).
Long
by ridethepig
10
Macro Bear Market JUST beginning??BTC is in a very dangerous spot right now, people aren't losing their jobs fast enough (unemployment at 3.5%!!) and Netflix keep on raising subscription prices in Ukraine (war!!!) The FED might have to issue more hikes all the way to 2024, mid terms are also coming which is historically bearish for extreme risk assets (BTC??!!) TA wise, BTC is forming an extremely BEARISH descending triangle (explosive move?,!!) which could see 3k target in no time Trade wisely and close any longs, cut your losses if required as this will get MUCH much worse Macro-economical factors seem to be pointing to a structural bear market could take up to 111 months for full recovery (according to Goldman Sachs) Please share this idea as I will be providing more tips on how to navigate a full blown financial collapse!! CAREFUL
Short
by deathtotrade
5
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 29.09 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 29.09 🤖 TLDR: Short-Term (-1 Day) 70:30- Bullish:Bearish Mid-Term (1 Week+) 40:60 Bullish:Bearish Long-Term (1 Month+) 60:40 - Bullish:Bearish OVERVIEW: All things looking relatively bullish over the next day or so for BTC - there is still some significant resistance to get through at $20.5k region with long term trendlines and high resistances volume. September close is notoriously bearish, so I still expect this to ring true. Expecting some very heavy volatility tomorrow with the options expiration. Ultimately my general thoughts are that we are going to track up to about $20.5k and then have a very heavy retracement from there - this could well extend well below $19k back to the $18.7k support. We are nearing the end of this daily Descending triangle so a big move is expected out of that, they are a a pretty bearish pattern and the weekly descending wedge also suggests that a $16k is still on the cards without invalidating the pattern. So in a nutshell don't commit too heavy to longs rn , we still need to break this 20DEMA in order to get any where and losing $19.1k and the 200EMA on the 1hr will likely see the start of the downward movement. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: +BULLISH FACTORS: + Low overhead Volume to $20.5k + Flipped VWAP + FLIPPED 200 EMA 1H + Holding Daily Support + Bullish Divergence on the Daily + Descending Wedge on the Weekly + Volume is consolidating for breakout BEARISH FACTORS: - 20 DEMA proving tough resistance - Overbought Rejection on Local Resistance - Descending Triangle on the Daily + Local trendline resistance NEWS: Bull: + Senator Lummis calls out U.S. leaders to welcome Bitcoin as it ‘can’t be stopped’ +🇦🇪 UAE's Ministry of Economy opens headquarters in the #metaverse. + UK investors turn to Bitcoin as GBP weakens, new data shows cryptopanic.com Bear: - Gary Gensler Speaking today Volatility * Powell speaking today at 3.15pm UK time * Options expiration on tomorrow MARKET SENTIMENT: Fear & Greed Index - Sep 28, 2022: Today: 20 (Extreme Fear) Yesterday: 20 (Extreme Fear) Avg. 1W: 22 😱 Avg. 2W: 22 😱 Avg. 1M: 23 😱 Avg. 2M: 28 😱 Avg. 3M: 27 😱 Avg. 6M: 23 😱 Avg. 1Y: 32 😣 🔸 #Bitcoin Price: $19,116 24h Low: $18,903 24h High: $20,339 MC Change: -$1.2B (-0.3%) Dominance: 37.7% 24h: -0.4% 7d: -2.3% 14d: -14.4% 30d: -4.8% 60d: -19.8% 200d: -51.6% 1y: -55.9% $BTC #BTC @bitcoin #bitcoin
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Kryptochristian
3
BOE, CPI and the FedWe're probably going to bounce from here (maybe muck around for the rest of the week and bounce next week higher); I think the BOE's QE decision is going to have people hoping that perhaps the Fed will do the same. The fact that a central bank can flinch and go the other way is a huge psychological change. This is somewhat of an exogenous event to the positive, to an already oversold market. Rally is going to continue (this is also area of the 200 weekly MA support). Then ahead is the CPI, and i think this may come in lighter than expected and the markets may rally even higher; hoping that the Fed will back off the 75bp hike and ease up going in to the end of the year. Of course it can be a terrible double digit number, in which case the markets will tank; basically translates to 'what the Fed is doing is not working, and they're driving the economy to the ground anyway'. But despite the data, and any easing of raising, since the Fed has pretty much said that they want to reach a certain target (despite what they say about being data dependent and whatnot), they're gonna plow ahead with the 75bp raise, then 50, as expected. I think this will be a big downer for the markets, and they will, despite fairly solid communication by the Fed, lose faith in the FED and find them to be stubborn and unwavering, leading the economy in to a recession in 2023. Having said that, there's always exogenous events that can change the course of this, mostly to the downside, whether that be Ukraine, Taiwan, or a worsending housing/real estate market condition in China, etc.
SP:SPX
by grenadetrade
Gold ready economic crisisThe inflation data and with the rise in interest rates we are seeing a USD strengthening with everyone but a recession has not yet been declared in the United States, something that could change everything especially for GOLD, which is the main refuge of value in the face of a crisis, we saw it in 2008 that exceeded maximums with the economic crisis, we saw it in 2020 with the health crisis exceeding maximums again. Now there is possibly a new economic crisis and right now we are experiencing the same as in 2008 with several layoffs in large companies and with quite high inflation, Powell said that it did not matter if real estate and the stock market fell, what matters to him is inflation .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ed_Ale
Economic calendar for this week is fire. Check it out! 🔥🔥🔥This week is promising to be very interesting from fundamental point of view. It's the end of financial year in USA. On the chart you can see the most important forecoming events that will influence cryptomarket. Legend: CC - Consumer confidence Powell - speaks Chairman of Federal Open Market Comitee Lagarde - speaks President of European Central Bank TB - Trade balance GDP - Gross Domestic Product It's better to not hold any trades during fundamental news as market becomes unpredictable and your stoploss may be taken. If you like the idea, please, press a like to let me know that my work is valuable for you. Thank you and trade wisely!💓😊
by Bikotrading_Academy
1
DXY Makes New Highs After the FOMCThe DXY got a strong burst of momentum from yesterday's FOMC. Although we got our 75 bps hike (as expected), the press conference that followed was a lot more somber. Powell forecasted more hikes, despite the markets expectations of a more dovish forward guidance. This fueled an interest rate spike in treasuries, and bolstered the DXY's meteoric rally to break through highs and hit our target of 111.37 exactly. Recall that we have been projecting this level for weeks. Currently we are seeing a bit of a pullback which is anticipated. We should see support at 110.20, and potentially a sideways correction from here.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Stocks Make New Lows After the FOMCStocks got slammed yesterday, breaking through lows in the 3800's. We anticipated support at the base of the 3800 handle, but the S&P 500 broke down even lower, currently feeling out the highs of the 3700 handle. At this time, 3758 has provided support and we appear to be attempting a push back to the 3800's. The FOMC meeting came out more hawkish than expected. Although we did get the projected 75 bps hike, the rhetoric of Powell's press conference that followed was quite somber and the markets did not get the dovishness they expected. They've reacted accordingly with this selloff. If we are able to break through current levels then 3825 is the next target. If not, 3758 should hold as a floor for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report – FOMC This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. For this FOMC KOG Report we’re going to reference the KOG Report shared on Sunday where we said we would be looking for some form of relief rally in Gold. We suggested earlier in the month that we could potentially see this rally happening at some point during the last week of September, so for that reason we will be looking at the lower levels to go long. We have targets below which we would like to see completed before the move to the upside, what we want to see though is how the price reacts to these levels and where it creates its base. Our daily is already showing some bullish signs, however, the weekly is suggesting some more movement down is possible. A lot of traders will be sitting long here at the 200MA so a sweep of liquidity on the lows is very possible. For the reasons above, we’ll again be looking at the extreme levels to take entries with a plan to take this up towards the 1700+ price regions. Illustrated on the chart are the key support and resistance levels we feel they can tap into before swinging the move in the opposite direction! The first level we’re looking at is just below the 1650 psychological level where if we see a strong support we feel there will be an opportunity to take the long trade back up towards the 1680-95 price points. We’re going to keep it simple for this report as our plans are on the KOG reports and nothing has really changed, apart from the ranging price action that we’re witnessing pre-event. Its also possible that the market has priced in this release, in which case we will continue as we are. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
SPY, Broad Markets & the FOMC PlaybookFOMC @ 2:00 PM EST reaction will see one of 3 Events: 1. 75BPS is priced - leading to a move higher to recent intra-week Highs. 2. 75BPS is priced - leading to a tighter range into Powell. 3. 100 - 125 BPS is not priced - leading to a breakdown and a VIXplosion to 31 and VIX Curve inversion. Powell's conviction @ 2:30 PM EST sets the Equity Complex in further motion of which there are 3 events: 1. Powell indicates the FED is making progress but needs to see further Data and intends to remain vigilant. 2. Powell indicates the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring Fed Funds aggressively towards the Inflation Rate. 3. Powell indicates the FOMC's trend toward Higher Rates will need to remain consistent in order to maintain stability with November an important timeframe for the FED. ______________________________________________________________________ Nature abhors a Vacuum. As does the US Dollar - Any spike above 110 leads to 111.71s. Dot Plots, Terminal Rates... will all see an adjustment, one that has made higher velocity movements recently. The Yield Curve - with 1's over 4%, 2's approaching 4%, and a new Inversion dipping into prior lows and exceeding them @ - 0.487% - doubling the prior 2 most recent curve inversions. The Market Signals are quite clear - indicating the FED will raise 100BPS as a flood of Global Central Banks Rate decisions are set in motion this week and next. Competition is building among them. Powell will not be sanguine. That will not happen today IMHO. Powell will be direct in the extreme once again as the FED has no intention of back off until 8 months after their final rate increase. This is the history of Interest Rate Cycles - this one will be shorter and far more volatile than prior cycles. ______________________________________________________________________ Yes, we are at the lower end of the Risk Range, but nowhere near the lows. It is important to remember, RIsk compounds from elevated levels - which provides vacuous sucking sounds time and again. ______________________________________________________________________ Time favors the Spread, if you are using leverage, the October Monthly Expiry is the safer Trade into an October Straddle - direction neutrality the higher probability of profit. The tightest spread is preferred as the IV is elevated, should it come down, close the position as IV can move in either direction today, it is VIX Settlement. Lack of volatility - is the lowest probability providing the performance. The key to success is to close the position within a few days. I am taking ATH only. ______________________________________________________________________ Trade Safe & Good Luck.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
12
EURUSD before FED Like we said already, today is FED Interest Rate decision. This will definitely cause some moves. Here's what you need to look for before you enter a trade. Direction : there is a higher probability for a strong USD, therefore we should see a new low on EURUSD. However, we should not sell right now! Levels: The support levels are 0,9878, followed by 0,9800 and in case of a breakout then 0,9685 will be next. Entry: There are a few ways to enter but the best one would be if we see a rejection wick above the previous highs. That wick should have formed after the news. You need those 3 things before every trade. Everything else is money management and confidence (psychology) in your position. In case of an upside move then we are not looking to enter a trade today!
Short
by ForexTrendline
1
DXY looks so bearishThe DXY chart looks in lower timeframe very bearish. That might cause a short squeeze. Yesterday at powells speech he said bad things about crypto: he said that he wants to regulate the cryptomarket, but not ban it. In general that are bad news for crypto fans. In crypto there were a hype rally of retail traders, that might think: wow regulations but no ban how cool is that. In my opinion all the retail trader will be dead by the end of tomorrow. I think crypto whales will liquidate their positions and dxy will go up, because there is no other competitor at the moment. That is what makes me bullish on dxy, thank you for shorting dxy.
TVC:DXYLong
by Applecoconut
1
BTC Daily - FED speaks today. Watch out!At the morning we saw nice drop on BTC and that way marketmaker formed supporting trendline Resistance we formed during Asian session. That makes triangle formation finished and end of that formation will be exactly during fundmental news.. At 09:10 New York time FED Chairmen Powell will speak. Usually during such events market has decreased volatility beforehand and becomes extremely volatile when speaker speaks so it's better to stay out. Especially if you are scalping. Also at 09:30 Initial Jobless Claims data will be released which can destabilize the market even more. Personally I will stay out of the market today cause I don't want to risk my profit. Remember, not having a position is also a position. If you like the idea, please, press a like to let me know that my work is valuable for you. Thank you and trade wisely!💓😊
by Bikotrading_Academy
USD/JPY stabilizes after hitting 139The Japanese yen is in positive territory today after starting the week with sharp losses. USD/JPY is trading at 138.22, down 0.34%. Japan releases a host of events on Wednesday, including retail sales and consumer confidence. Retail sales for July is expected to come in at -0.5% MoM, following a 1.4% decline in June. Consumer confidence remains weak, with a July estimate of 31.0, following the June read of 30.2. Japanese consumers are in a sour mood and nervous about the economy, and it's no surprise that they are holding tight to the purse strings as inflation continues to rise. The yen remains under pressure and took it on the chin after Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Powell's brief speech went straight to the point, pledging to continue raising rates until inflation was brought under control. Powell pointedly said that one or two weak inflation reports would not cause the Fed to U-turn on its tightening, a veiled reference to the market euphoria which followed the July inflation report, which was lower than the June release. With the equity markets taking a tumble after Powell's speech, it appears that investors have finally gotten the Fed's hawkish message. Powell's speech removed any doubts about the Fed's plans to continue raising rates, but the size of the increases will depend not just on inflation, but also on other economic data. Overshadowed by Jackson Hole, US Personal Income and Spending data was weaker than expected. As well, the Core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, fell to 6.3%, down from 6.8% and below the forecast of 7.4%. If Friday's non-farm payrolls report is weaker than expected, it would be a clear indication that the sharp increase in rates is having its desired effect and the economy is slowing. In such a scenario, Fed policy makers may be more inclined to raise rates at the September meeting by only 50 basis points, rather than 75bp. USD/JPY is testing support at 1.3822. The next support line is at 137.01 1.3891 and 1.4012 are resistance lines
by OANDA
USDJPY: Dollar remains King!!USDJPY Intraday - We look to Buy at 137.55 (stop at 136.67) The primary trend remains bullish. We look for a temporary move lower. Support is located at 137.50 and should stem dips to this area. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 137.50, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 139.49 and 140.00 Resistance: 139.50 / 142.00 / 145.00 Support: 137.50 / 132.00 / 126.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a th ird-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Euro rises to parity as ECB hints at 75bp hikeEUR/USD has edged higher today and is trading at the parity line. In the North American sesssion, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0019, up 0.57%. The US dollar has posted sharp gains against the major currencies, as Fed Chair Powell's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole left no doubt that the Fed will continue to tighten rates in its titanic battle with surging inflation. The euro, however, bucked the trend and posted strong gains on Friday but ultimately pared these gains, before moving higher once again today. The upward movement has been driven by hawkish comments at Jackson Hole from senior ECB members, including Isabel Schnabel, who is well-known for being a hawk. Shnabel said that the likelihood of high inflation becoming entrenched in expectations was "uncomfortably high" and argued that "central banks need to act forcefully". Latvian central bank Governor Martins Kazak was even more specific, stating that the ECB should be open to discussing 50 or 75 basis point moves. The ECB has raised rates but only to zero, well below the neutral rate of around 1.5%. This means that ECB policy continues to stimulate the economy, at a time when inflation and inflation expectations continue to move higher. The ECB will be hard-pressed to find the balance of raising rates without tipping the weak eurozone economy into a recession. Overshadowed by Powell's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole was a host of weak US releases. Personal income and spending data both missed expectations, while the Core PCE Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, fell to 0.1% in July MoM, down from 0.6% in June and shy of the estimate of 0.3%. The weak numbers mean that the Fed may have to ease back on rate hikes, despite Powell's hawkish speech, as the data continue to indicate that the economy is slowing in response to the Fed's tightening. If upcoming releases indicate that the economy is losing steam, the dollar will be under pressure. EUR/USD has support at 0.9985 and 0.9880 There is resistance at 1.0068 and 1.0173
by OANDA
Hawkish Jackson Hole Rhetoric Lifts the DollarThe US dollar shot up as hawkish comments from the Jachson Hole retreat sent yields soaring. We have broken through our recent high of 109.30, making new highs at 109.47. We are just a few ticks south of our target of 109.86. Despite the strong hawkish tone of Fed officials last week at Jackson Hole, it does feel like a technical retracement may be in store for us, so watch for support at 108.50. After that there is a vacuum zone to 107.20.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
What Jackson Hole Means for the Stocks and the EconomyStocks swiftly sold off as the markets digested comments from the Jackson Hole retreat. This is a gathering of central bankers from around the world, and while no 'official' policy decisions are made, the markets pay great attention to comments made by key members. In particular, Jerome Powell came off sufficiently more Hawkish than anticipated , and the markets reacted as such. The dollar soared past highs along with bond yields and stocks tanked. Powell even said that Americans should expect 'pain' which was a particular somber note and drove the selloff further. At this point a 75bps or even a 100bps rate hike are not off the table for September. Also, particular mention was given to how rate hikes may impact the labor market, with some sources suggesting it could cost up to 4 million jobs . The S&P 500 tumbled to the base of the 4K handle at our very last level at 4009, a level we have been identifying for weeks. If this level breaks, we will return to the 3K's again, with 3978 and 3963 the next levels of support.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1