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XAUUSD - gold will be welcomed by the Federal Reserve!Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. If we maintain the drawn channel, we can witness the continuation of gold's decline and limited visibility of the bottom of the channel. Within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If it returns to the ceiling of the channel, it is possible to sell within the supply zone. 1. UBS Gold Forecast: UBS has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900. This prediction is based on factors such as the rising U.S. debt, strong demand from central banks, and declining interest rates. The institution also anticipates that U.S. inflation will decrease to 3% by the end of 2024, 2.6% by the end of 2025, and 2.5% throughout 2027. These figures are significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, suggesting that persistent inflation may pose a significant obstacle to the Fed’s efforts to control it. 2. U.S. CPI Report: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November highlighted the persistence of inflationary pressures. However, the details of the report appeared somewhat reassuring. CIBC Bank predicts that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 0.25% in its December meeting, though subsequent rate cuts may be delayed due to the economy’s continued growth. 3. Ray Dalio on Gold: Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, referred to Bitcoin as a hard asset and stated that he prefers Bitcoin and gold over debt-based assets. He expressed concerns about a potential global debt crisis and emphasized the importance of shifting investments toward hard assets. Dalio pointed to unprecedented levels of debt in major countries such as the U.S. and China, deeming these debt levels unsustainable.Speaking at a financial conference in Abu Dhabi, he remarked, “It is impossible for these countries to avoid a debt crisis in the coming years, which will likely lead to a significant depreciation of their currencies.” 4. Dalio’s Evolving Stance on Bitcoin: Previously, Dalio believed that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin would not achieve the success many had hoped for. However, in recent years, he has become a prominent advocate of Bitcoin. In 2022, Dalio suggested allocating up to 2% of an investment portfolio to Bitcoin and gold as a reasonable strategy to combat inflation. He also reiterated his preference for gold over Bitcoin while emphasizing the importance of portfolio diversification. 5. Peter Schiff’s Warning on Bitcoin: Peter Schiff, a prominent gold advocate, has warned that creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. could have negative consequences. On December 9, Schiff posted on the social media platform X, suggesting that the Biden administration should sell all Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government before leaving office. He stated, “This move would not only help reduce the 2024 budget deficit but also put an end to all the nonsense about establishing a ‘strategic reserve’ of Bitcoin, which is detrimental.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
Gold Supported by Fundamentals, Testing Key Technical ResistanceTechnical Analysis Gold is trading at $2,719, approaching a critical resistance level at $2,735 (Fib 0.786). A breakout above this resistance could pave the way for further upside toward $2,743 and $2,758, marking significant levels for long-term trend continuation. On the daily chart, the price has held firmly above the 50-day SMA, supported by a bullish RSI, indicating the potential for continued strength. - Key Resistances : - $2,735 (Fib 0.786). - $2,743 and $2,758. - Key Supports : - $2,700 (short-term support). - $2,693 (Fib 0.618). In the short term, gold has encountered resistance at $2,720 and shows signs of a possible pullback. The RSI in the overbought zone suggests that a correction toward $2,700 and potentially $2,693 is likely before any continuation to the upside. --- Fundamental Analysis Gold prices remain near two-week highs, supported by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Markets are now pricing a 95% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed next week , per the CME FedWatch tool, with a further 22% chance of another cut in January. Key Developments Driving Gold: 1. Chinese Central Bank Gold Buying: The People's Bank of China resumed gold purchases in November, adding 160,000 fine troy ounces to its reserves. This significant move has bolstered global gold demand and added upward momentum to prices. 2. Middle East Geopolitical Tensions: The collapse of the Syrian government and subsequent military actions by Israel have increased investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. 3. US Inflation Data (CPI): November's CPI data showed a 2.7% YoY increase, aligning with expectations and reinforcing the case for rate cuts. The core inflation rate remained stable at 3.3%. These figures have kept gold's bullish momentum intact. --- Upcoming Data to Watch The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the US, scheduled for release tomorrow, will provide further clues about inflation trends. - Forecasts: - Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.3%). - PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%). - Unemployment Claims: 221K (previous: 224K). Potential Scenarios for PPI: 1. Stronger-than-expected PPI (above 0.2%): Higher PPI could indicate persistent inflationary pressures, potentially boosting the US Dollar and pressuring gold prices lower. In this case, gold may test short-term supports at $2,700 or $2,693. 2. Weaker-than-expected PPI (below 0.2%): A weaker PPI could further strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, weakening the US Dollar and providing additional upside for gold. A breakout above $2,735 would open the path toward $2,743 and $2,758. --- Conclusion Gold remains strong in the long term, with $2,735 as a critical resistance level. A breakout above this level could trigger a rally to $2,743 and $2,758. However, in the short term, the price is expected to correct to $2,700 or $2,693 before resuming its uptrend. The upcoming PPI report is pivotal and will shape market sentiment ahead of the Fed's rate decision next week. Recommendation Monitor the PPI report and Fed commentary closely. A pullback to $2,700 may offer a buying opportunity, with targets set at $2,743 and $2,758 if bullish momentum persists.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by uPaSKaL
15
NAS100 - Nasdaq will welcome Santa Rally?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zones, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. In recent days, financial markets have experienced a notable influx of capital. According to a report by Bank of America, capital flows amounted to $8.2 billion into equities, $4.9 billion into bonds, and $3.0 billion into cryptocurrencies. This marks the largest four-week inflow into cryptocurrencies, totaling $11.0 billion. Capital inflows into U.S. equities continued for the ninth consecutive week, totaling $8.2 billion. Additionally, a $4.6 billion investment in small-cap U.S. stocks pushed the 2024 inflows to record highs. Over the 12 months ending in November, an average of 186,000 new jobs were created each month. On a monthly basis, the highest job growth was observed in healthcare, leisure, and government sectors. Employment in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector also saw a boost following the resolution of labor strikes. Recent economic data continues to highlight contractionary pressures and their effects on the U.S. economy. At first glance, November’s NFP employment report indicates a resilient and strong labor market, with the U.S. economy adding approximately 227,000 jobs. This growth was largely due to the recovery of jobs lost to recent hurricanes in the Southeast and the resolution of Boeing labor strikes, both of which had reduced employment figures in October. The October report was also revised upward to 36,000 jobs. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, while labor force participation declined. Despite this, unemployment remains relatively low, though it may rise in the coming months if contractionary pressures persist. This week, major events in global central bank policies are expected to take place. Dubbed by some as the “central banks’ decisive week,” it begins with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision. Key U.S. economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will play a pivotal role in shaping Federal Reserve policies. Investors are primarily focused on inflation data. The November CPI report is set to be released on Wednesday, followed by the PPI report on Thursday. These figures will serve as a precursor to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Projections indicate that annual CPI may rise from 2.6% to 2.7%, while core CPI is expected to remain steady at 3.3%. If no stronger-than-expected data emerges, the Federal Reserve is likely to lean toward reducing interest rates, with the possibility of halting monetary easing in the January meeting. The December 2024 global economic outlook report by Fitch highlights rising inflation risks in the U.S., driven by stronger-than-expected consumer spending, upcoming tariff increases that raise import prices, and slowed labor force growth due to reduced net migration. Fitch forecasts that global growth will decline to 2.6% in 2025, a figure largely unchanged from its September report. However, this global stability masks significant shifts in the economic growth forecasts of major countries. U.S. economic growth for 2025 has been revised up by 0.5% to 2.1%, while the Eurozone’s growth forecast has been reduced by 0.3% to 1.2%. Similarly, China’s growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 0.2% to 4.3%. The persistent inflationary trends observed in recent months are unlikely to change significantly with the November CPI report. The CPI data, due on Wednesday, is one of the final and most important indicators ahead of the December 18 Federal Reserve meeting. It may influence FOMC members’ decisions on whether to reduce or halt interest rate cuts. Currently, there is a strong probability of a 25-basis-point cut in the upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, stated in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he has no plans to request the resignation of Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump emphasized that he does not intend to replace Powell and will continue to work with him. In recent years, financial and tech markets have witnessed remarkable shifts. One such change is the shift in focus from semiconductor companies to AI-related software firms. After a significant rally in semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA and AMD, market enthusiasm has now shifted toward software companies such as Snowflake and Palantir. This reflects a growing realization that AI’s true potential lies in its applications across industries, rather than solely in the hardware enabling it. Semiconductor firms were the initial beneficiaries of this AI boom, but the market is now gravitating toward companies implementing AI in practical and operational ways.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Buy Gold!?The US dollar gained strength again last week due to the effects of Trump being elected as the next US president. Considering that the Republican Party will control the US Congress in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, it is expected that the implementation of Trump's pre-election promises will easily become law. The new US president wants drastic cuts in corporate taxes and tariffs on goods imported from around the world, especially from China. From the point of view of the financial community, these actions could increase inflation and prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates in the future. US inflation data in October indicated the persistence of price pressures. Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates. This has led some market participants to believe that interest rate cuts will stop in the near future. Mark Leboitt, publisher of VR Metals/Resource Letter, commented: "Gold's price correction is happening as expected, with a possible drop to the $2,300 level, although the long-term view remains to reach $3,700. considers "Right now, gold is oversold, so we're likely to see a correction," he continued. In such a situation, buying at weak price points for long-term positions and doing short-term transactions with a buying approach can be considered a suitable strategy. Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, said: "For the coming week, an upward trend is expected. The excitement and frenzy surrounding the recent US election is likely coming to an end, which means the market will face new uncertainties. In such a situation, gold can once again be considered as a safe asset by investors and can be bought as a hedge against the volatility of other market sectors, especially the stock market. This week for the US we have S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI data to watch out for. The beginning of the easing cycle in September and the first reduction in interest rates have revived hopes for the improvement of data such as PMI, and economic activities are expected to improve, especially in the manufacturing and industrial sector, with the continued reduction in borrowing costs. Therefore, although we cannot expect a significant improvement in the short term, we can hope for the improvement of the production sector in the future and gradually. In addition, the speeches of several central bank officials are also of particular importance to traders, as they try to get indications of the speed and possible depth of interest rate cuts. Among the important speeches of the week, we can mention Goolsby's statement on Monday and his appearance again with Hamek on Thursday.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
USD/JPY hit 15-week high, Japan GDP nextThe Japanese is lower for a fourth straight trading day and has declined 2.1% during that time. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.85 up 0.25% on the day. The markets are braced for a sharp slowdown in third-quarter GDP, which will be released early Friday. The market estimate stands at 0.7% y/y, compared to a revised 3.1% in the second quarter. On a quarterly basis, GDP is expected to ease to 0.2%, following a revised 0.7% gain in Q2. The strong GDP numbers in the second quarter reflected wage negotiations in the spring which resulted in sharp wage increases and a recovery in the auto industry. The BoJ meets next on Dec. 19 and key data such as the GDP release and inflation will be important factors ahead of the meeting. As well, wages have been rising which could translate into increased consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. In the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose in October to 2.4% y/y, up from a revised 1.9% gain in September. The core rate also rose to 3.1% from a revised 2.9% in September. The increase in PPI comes on the heels of consumer inflation (CPI) which rose from 2.4% y/y to 2.6%. The core rate remained unchanged at 3.3%. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its plans due to the rise in inflation, which had decelerated for six straight months. The path of inflation can be bumpy and Fed policymakers won’t be losing sleep over a single monthly increase. If inflation accelerates next month, however, there will be some concern and we could hear calls for an oversized half-point cut in December. USD is testing resistance at 155.95. Above, there is resistance at 1.5643 There is support at 155.15 and 154.67
by OANDA
XAUUSD - which way will gold go after CPI!?Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of upward correction due to today's economic data, we can see supply zones and sell within those zones with appropriate risk reward. The continuation of the downward movement of gold has led to the visibility of the demand zone and it is possible to look for buying positions. UBS analysts are optimistic about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve despite inflation concerns. Recent inflation data has not been enough to change UBS's view on further rate cuts by the FOMC. UBS refers to the following points: • Economic data indicates a stronger than expected economy. • Concerns about inflation remain. • The expectations of the market are moving towards the reduction of the interest rate by the Federal Reserve. • Federal Reserve officials see the current rate as restrictive but are trying to balance employment and inflation goals. • A major inflationary shock is needed to change the policy landscape. The consensus seems to be that once Trump takes office, he will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to boost growth and deliver on his economic promises. This was indeed the context for the questions asked of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week. He was asked if he would resign if pressured by the Trump administration. Powell stated that he will not resign and that the president does not have such authority. This assumption partly goes back to the first term of Trump's presidency, when he repeatedly called for easing policies of the Federal Reserve and sometimes criticized Powell. But the difference between today and 2018 and 2019 is that inflation was much lower at that time. Most importantly, voters showed their anger at the high cost of living by ousting Democrats from the White House and the Senate. NBC exit polls in 10 key states found that three-quarters of voters rated inflation as a moderate or severe problem in the past year, and more supported Trump. "It makes more sense for Trump 2.0 to bear some of the economic slack (and blame it on Biden and Harris) to curb inflation," Stephen Jenn, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Capital, wrote in a note. "I don't agree at all that Trump 2.0 risks increasing inflation." Meanwhile, China's central bank stopped buying gold for reserves for the sixth consecutive month in October, according to official data. China's gold reserves reached 72.8 million troy ounces at the end of last month. However, the value of gold reserves rose to $199.06 billion from $191.47 billion at the end of September. The World Gold Council's report predicts that gold purchases by global central banks, which increased in 2022 and 2023, will decline in 2024, although they will remain above pre-2022 levels. This issue is partly due to the suspension of 18-month purchases of the People's Bank of China since May.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
USDJPY - Will the yen continue to weaken?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those two zones with the appropriate risk reward. John Thune, the senator from South Dakota, has been elected as the Republican Senate Majority Leader. This election received broad support from Trump-aligned Republicans, though some factions within the GOP, particularly the far-right, were less welcoming of the choice. In this race, Thune faced competition from John Cornyn of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida, although Scott was not seen as a significant threat. Thune ultimately won in a direct, closed-ballot vote against Cornyn, securing the Senate leadership position. Moody’s has announced that financial risks concerning the United States’ fiscal strength have escalated. In a statement, Moody’s highlighted the outlook on U.S. national debt, identifying the “decisive victory of Republicans” as a specific risk factor. Moody’s stated, “In the absence of policy measures to curb the budget deficit, federal fiscal strength will deteriorate, increasingly impacting the U.S. sovereign credit profile.” Given the fiscal policies promised by Trump during his election campaign—and the high likelihood of their passage due to the shift in Congress—U.S. fiscal strength-related risks have increased. While Trump’s victory has been seen as positive for certain risk assets, it has had negative implications for bonds. Meanwhile, a Bank of Japan official indicated that Japan is not currently in need of extensive financial support, allowing the central bank to resume interest rate hikes after a brief pause to assess U.S. economic developments. Another Bank of Japan member warned that raising rates could cause market shocks, disrupting the normalization path of Japan’s monetary policies, as the divergence in policy directions between the U.S. and Japan could heighten foreign exchange market volatility. Additionally, one member emphasized the need to be prepared for potential market fluctuations due to the U.S. presidential election results.
Long
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD - Is inflation under control in America?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If the downward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. In case of an upward correction, this currency pair can be sold within the specified supply zones. The Governor of the Bank of England noted that the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not accurately indicate whether underlying inflation dynamics have been suppressed. There remains a risk of rising energy prices, and inflation within the services sector is notably resilient and persistent. He anticipates greater volatility ahead, with some inflationary drivers potentially shifting upwards. Additionally, according to new data from the Cleveland Federal Reserve, the inflation trend in the U.S. continues to remain above 2 percent. The Median CPI for the previous month was reported at 4.09 percent, a slight increase from 4.08 percent in the prior month. Since June, this measure has only seen a minor decline, from 4.15 percent to the current level. Median CPI is a monthly inflation indicator that measures price changes at the midpoint of a basket of goods. Although this method may differ from the standard CPI, it focuses on items that fall within the midpoint of the distribution. Charts within this report show that other inflation indicators are relatively stabilized, while the decline in the headline CPI is primarily due to a drop in energy prices, which is considered a temporary factor. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, despite ongoing challenges, debt levels remain manageable. Although delinquency rates have risen, income growth continues to outpace household debt growth. In the third quarter, delinquency transition rates varied, with credit card delinquencies improving, while delinquency rates for auto loans and mortgages saw a decline. At the end of Q3, 3.5 percent of debt was in some stage of delinquency, up from 3.2 percent in Q2. Overall delinquency rates also increased during this period. According to the data, credit card balances in Q3 rose 8.1 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching $1.17 trillion, marking an increase of around $24 billion from Q2. Additionally, mortgage balances increased by $75 billion in this period, reaching $12.59 trillion.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: Corn Futures and PPI InsightsIntroduction to Corn Futures Market Sentiment Corn Futures are capturing the interest of traders as technical indicators and economic fundamentals align in a potential bullish setup. Currently, the Corn Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a Commodity Channel Index (CCI) bullish crossover, indicating a possible uptrend in prices. Corn Futures have followed suit with an earlier CCI bullish crossover, adding strength to the view that Corn prices could see upward momentum in the coming months. As Corn Futures reflect early signals of a shift in market sentiment, this article explores a straightforward yet effective Bull Call Spread strategy using June 2025 options. By leveraging these CCI signals and key resistance levels, traders could position themselves to benefit from a potential rise in Corn prices while maintaining a controlled risk profile. Corn Futures Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements Understanding the specifications of Corn Futures is essential for managing both position size and margin requirements effectively. Here’s a quick breakdown: Price Tick Size: The minimum fluctuation is 0.0025 cents per bushel, equivalent to $12.50 per tick. Margin Requirement: Approximately $1,000 per contract, although this can vary based on broker and market conditions. Analysis of Key Indicators and Market Setup Two primary indicators support the bullish case for Corn Futures: the CCI bullish crossover in both the Corn Futures and the Corn PPI. The CCI, a momentum-based indicator, identifies potential trend reversals by highlighting overbought and oversold conditions. The recent CCI bullish crossover in Corn Futures suggests early buying pressure, while the subsequent crossover in the Corn PPI confirms this trend on the economic front. This alignment between technical and economic indicators provides a potentially unique opportunity for options traders to capture potential upward movement, particularly as Corn prices approach critical resistance levels in front of a potential breakout. Identifying Key Resistance Levels for Corn Futures Resistance levels play a crucial role in setting realistic targets and managing expectations. In the current Corn Futures landscape, the primary resistance level for the front contract is observed around 550. For our target contract, ZCN2025 (July 2025), this resistance translates to approximately 485 due to the effects of contango/backwardation. These resistance levels serve as benchmarks for setting exit targets in a Bull Call Spread. If Corn prices rally towards this zone, it could provide a favorable exit opportunity while maintaining a controlled risk-to-reward structure. The Bull Call Spread Strategy Setup In this setup, we employ a Bull Call Spread using options with a June 20, 2025, expiration date. This strategy is ideal for capturing moderate upside movement while limiting downside risk through a capped loss. Here’s the specific setup: Long Position: Buy the 460 Call for a premium of 25.41. Short Position: Sell the 490 Call for a premium of 15.87. By buying the 460 Call and simultaneously selling the 490 Call, we establish a Bull Call Spread that allows us to benefit from price increases up to the 490 strike level. This setup reduces the net cost of the trade while capping the profit potential at the 490 strike price, aligning with our outlook based on resistance levels. Net Premium (Cost): 25.41−15.87=9.54. Reward-to-Risk Analysis A Bull Call Spread provides a straightforward way to define both maximum profit and loss at the outset. Here’s a closer look: Maximum Profit: Achieved if Corn Futures price rises to or above the 490 strike level at expiration = (490−460)−9.54=20.46. Maximum Loss: Limited to the net premium paid = 9.54. Breakeven Point: 469.54, calculated by adding the net premium to the 460 strike. This structure results in a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 2.14:1. Forward-Looking Trade Plan and Execution Strategy This Bull Call Spread strategy is structured with specific entry and exit conditions in mind: Entry Condition: Triggered once the ZC1! (continuous Corn Futures contract) surpasses the prior month’s high at 434'2. This confirmation aligns the technical breakout with the ongoing bullish trend indicated by the CCI and PPI crossovers. Target Exit: Based on the resistance level, the target for this trade is 485 on the ZCN2025 contract. Reaching this level would allow for a strategic exit with a maximum profit potential. Alternative Exit: If Corn Futures prices fail to sustain the breakout or if technical indicators weaken significantly, an early exit can be considered to limit losses or preserve gains. By setting these clear parameters, the trade plan maintains discipline, helping traders avoid reactive decision-making and align with the predefined strategy. Risk Management Essentials Effective risk management is crucial, especially when trading options. Here are some best practices: Stop-Loss Strategy: For options traders, a stop-loss can be set based on a percentage of the premium paid or by monitoring underlying futures price action. Position Sizing: Limit the size of the position relative to the account balance to avoid overexposure. This is especially relevant for volatile markets like Corn. Discipline and Emotional Control: Stick to the plan, avoid emotional reactions to market noise, and adhere to entry and exit conditions. Risk management ensures that even if the trade does not perform as expected, losses are limited and capital is preserved for future opportunities. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
Pound shrugs as UK economy grew by 0.2%The British pound is showing little movement on Friday in what has been a very quiet week for the currency. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3071, up 0.10% on the day and its lowest level. The UK economy showed slight improvement in August with a 0.2% m/m gain, after no growth in both June and July. This was in line with expectations and the pound’s reaction has been muted. Services, construction and manufacturing were all in positive territory, as the economy continues to show signs of growth. On a yearly basis, GDP rose 1%, up from a revised 0.9% in August but shy of the market estimate of 1.4%. The slight rebound in the economy comes at a convenient time for the government, which will release the autumn Budget on October 30. The government is counting on the Bank of England to continue cutting rates in order to boost economic growth. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has said that kick-starting the weak UK economy is the “number one priority. The Bank of England delivered its first rate cut of the new cycle in August but stayed on the sidelines in September. The next meeting is on November 7 and the UK releases inflation and employment data ahead of the meeting, which will likely determine whether Bank policy makers feel comfortable making another quarter-point cut. The US wraps up the week with the producer price index for September. Headline PPI is expected to tick lower to 1.7% y/y, compared to 1.6% in August. The core rate, however, is projected to rise to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in August. With inflation largely beaten, the Federal Reserve’s primary focus has shifted from inflation to employment. Still, an unexpected PPI reading in either direction could have an impact on the movement of the US dollar. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3058. Above, there is resistance at 1.3095 1.3023 and 1.2986 are the next support levels
by OANDA
07/10/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $65,605.03 Last weeks low: $59,829.32 Midpoint: $62,717.17 After geo-political escalations causing panic in the markets at the beginning of last week, BTC has been spending the second half of the week trying to recover losses. The 1D 200EMA came in as support midweek to cap the sell-off, a steady climb back up flipping the 4H 200EMA back to bullish and finally the week low reclaim in the dying hours of the week. This to me is very positive, showing strength in times of major uncertainty. Another outside force Bitcoin will encounter is the US presidential election, that is now less than one month away and definitely will sway traditional markets and crypto alike. This week we have some key data events: Wednesday - FOMC minutes As the unemployment data came in better than forecast, this could be a sign of further rate cuts to come in November, we may get some clues on this in the report. Thursday - CPI (YoY) Previous: 2.5% Forecast: 2.3% Actual:??? With CPI forecast to drop closer to the FEDs 2.0% target, anything lower than 2.3% would be positive for markets, 2,3% is probably priced in and anything above would be negative for markets. Friday - PPI (MoM) Previous: 0.2% Forecast: 0.1% Actual:??? Similar story in PPI as CPI, forecasts are for another drop and markets could react similarly to what's stated above. Data events can be a non-event but now that the rate cut cycle has begun and the US election is on the way these events are more important than ever.
by ProR35
NZ dollar drifting ahead of manufacturing dataThe New Zealand dollar is showing little movement on Thursday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6139 at the time of writing, up 0.05% on the day. New Zealand’s manufacturing sector has been in the doldrums, as the manufacturing PMI has posted 17 consecutive declines. Friday’s PMI is expected to improve to 47 in August, up from 44 in July (a reading below 50 points to contraction). The New Zealand economy has deteriorated and in August the Reserve Bank of New Zealand responded with its first rate cut since March 2020. The RBNZ has joined the club, as most major central banks have lowered rates and the Federal Reserve is poised to do so next week. The RBNZ will be looking to continue lowering rates, as the cash rate of 5.25% remains high and is weighing on economic activity and households. Inflation has dropped to 3.3%, which is close to the target of between 1% and 3%. The central bank meets next on Oct. 9 and there is pressure on the RBNZ to follow up with a second straight rate cut. In the US, today’s inflation numbers were a mix. Headline producer prices rose 1.7% Y/Y in August, following a downwardly revised 2.1% gain in July and just below the market estimate of 1.8%. However, core PPI rose from 2.3% to 2.4%, below the estimate of 2.5%. Today’s PPI data didn’t budge the market pricing of a Fed rate cut, with an 87% probability of a 25-bps cut next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Still, not everybody is on board for small cut – JP Morgan is projecting that the Fed will deliver a jumbo 50-bps reduction. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6134. Above, there is resistance at 0.6160 There are support lines at 0.6110 and 0.6084
by OANDA
09/09/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $59,829.20 Last weeks low: $52,551.34 Midpoint: $56,190.27 More sell-off last week in the crypto markets, very tough market conditions continue, hitting the $52,000 bullish OB+ again, the first time being exactly one month before. This area had held as support previously but it needs to hold this time around too, failing that $50,000 is the bottom of the daily downtrend channel. US CPI (Wednesday) & PPI (Thursday) this week, as with big news events we can potentially see volatility, this will be the last US CPI before rate cuts begin in the US, in Europe rate cuts are forecast to begin on Thursday, predicted to drop from 4.25% to 3.65% according to invesing.com, a 60bps cut. Another major news event this week is the Trump v Harris Presidential debate. I'm not expecting a whole lot of crypto talk in this debate, if I'm being completely honest I can't see it being an adult debate about political policy at all. However, I do think it will have an effect on the markets one way or another, obviously Trump is the better outcome for crypto if he stays true to his plans set out during the Bitcoin conference compared to the plans for the Harris administration to tax un-realized gains which is not very pro-investment. Again, I'm not holding my breath for any information on crypto but it is a major news event all the same. So in conclusion this week is full of news events that could create volatility, with BTC at its current level nearer the bottom of the daily trend. It does feel like we're maybe coming to an end of the chop with monetary policy pivot taking place soon.
by ProR35
Can Inflation Shift the Fed’s Rate Path? This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus. The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut climbed to 73%, while expectations for a 50-bps cut dropped to 27%. Attention now turns to inflation, with consumer prices expected to fall to 2.6%—the lowest since March 2021—and producer prices anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month. Key USD pairs to watch this week include EUR/USD, with the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision in focus. Additionally, pairs impacted by inflation data releases from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India could see significant movement.
by BlackBull_Markets
Gold did nothing, So I slept + I had a headacheThe best thing about being a full time trader is being able to do what I want when I want and as much as I am in pain as I type this, Just knowing that I don't have to answer to anyone reduces that pain 10 fold for me, honest. I don't have to request any leave, I don't have to report to anyone. I can just go. Yeah sure making money is great but what good is it if it costs you your peace. I'd openly accept making 10 times less than what I make now in exchange for my peace. Yeah you read that right.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Brandon_evo4
XAUUSD | Road to 2,500 PhasePrevious analysis has now near enough completed with a large bullish surge today making its way over 2 key quarter level phases with 2500 being the last of this phase section, after breaking through the previous days high gold now tests the all time high of 2,485 where there is a lot of pressure to break through already. With various events happening this week such as the CPI, PPI + Retail Sales I think the final event on thursday could provide key insight into golds growth and how the precious metal stands out from the rest, it is noteworthy of paying attention to the upcoming PPI although only short term impact it can play important roles within the FED and further conditions. What are your thoughts and ideas? Let me know below :)
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialKieranTrewick
Surging euro hits four-month highThe euro keeps pushing higher and is up for a fourth straight day. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0913, up 0.34% on the day. Earlier, the euro touched a high of 1.0920, its highest level since March 21. The US dollar has hit a rough patch in recent weeks and has lost ground against the major currencies. The euro has sparkled in July, gaining 1.9%. Eurozone industrial production recorded a sharp decline for a second straight month, a reminder that the manufacturing sector is still in trouble, with weakening demand across most of the eurozone and a global economy that is still trying to find its footing. Annually, eurozone industrial production declined 2.9% y/y in May, following a revised 3.1% decline in April. Monthly, the indicator declined 0.6% in May, lower than the revised April reading of 0%. Both readings were better than expected, but point to contraction in production. The week ended with the US Producer Price index accelerating unexpectedly in June to 2.6% y/y, up from a revised 2.4% and above the market estimate of 2.3%. This was the highest level since March 2023. Monthly, PPI edged up to 0.2%, up from a revised 0% in May and above the 0.1% market estimate. The higher-than-expected PPI report didn’t make much of a dent in market expectations for a September rate cut, which stand at 88%, according to the CME’s FedWatch. PPI tends to be erratic and the jump in the June data likely doesn’t point to a buildup in inflationary pressures. Last week’s June CPI report was softer than expected and boosted market expectations for an initial rate cut in September. EUR/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.0893. Next, there is resistance at 1.0925 There is support at 1.0876 and 1.0844
by OANDA
BITCOIN LINE IN THE SAND BTC has lost the 1D 200 EMA for the first time this year which is a major TA trend Indicator. On the daily timeframe we can see a clean breakthrough below on the first touch since October of last year, which initially is surprising as this level is seen as key support for keeping a bullmarket going. Now that BTC has fallen under the moving average we've seen attempts at breaking back above for the last 3 days in a row, and with FED chair Powell set to testify today and tomorrow along with CPI &PPI on Thursday and Friday respectively. It's quite a FED heavy week with can bring volatility to the market. The ETH ETF is rumoured to begin trading next Monday (15th July) which could be the catalyst to get both BTC & ETH back above their 1D 200 EMA's. For now the general worry is that the selling pressure caused by the German Government and Mt. Gox is what is dragging price down. However, yesterday recorded a net inflow of $295m for the Bitcoin spot ETFs, the most in 21 days which suggest there are buyers looking to absorb those Bitcoins that are being offloaded. I am still a little confused as to why the German Government have decided to market sell through an exchange instead of any OTC transactions, perhaps it's a play to shake out weak hands and make retail panic? The FA is always complicated but I still believe that the bearish factors are more short term when compared to all the bullish more long term factors. Short term market selling vs long term supply shock caused by the halving, institutional investors and ETFs buying, US election and rate cuts. CPI & PPI can be volatile news events for the market, I think it could be one of these events that could be a catalyst to reclaim the 1D 200 EMA, we've seen a full reset of the RSI since the rally of earlier this year. Historically these are all good long term entry criteria.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ProR35
No bigger driver for Gold than inflation this week? This week's economic calendar is dominated by US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) set for release. Expectations are for a further decline in inflation, potentially strengthening the case for multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Economists polled by Reuters forecast annual consumer price inflation to have eased to 3.1% in June, down from 3.3% in May. An interesting development today: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his appearance before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, expressed concerns about the potential risks of maintaining high interest rates for an extended period, which could threaten economic growth, CNBC reported. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. Gold prices edged higher, with XAU/USD trading at $2,364, up over 0.25%. The first resistance level for gold could be July 5 high at $2,392. On the downside, if nearer support levels fail, the next support zone could be the May 3 low of $2,277.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Euro's Next Moves: Biden, Powell, and Inflation Data The euro held steady at $1.0825 on Monday, recovering from a dip to $1.0815 as traders absorbed the surprising French election results, which saw a leftist alliance lead both the centrists and the right in the number of sets gained. Key drivers for the EURUSD's next moves include Biden's potential resignation, upcoming bank earnings, Powell's testimony in Washington, and US CPI and PPI data, alongside Hurricane Beryl's developments. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. Both monthly and daily RSIs for EUR/USD are on the rise but remain below overbought levels, suggesting continued upward momentum. Should US inflation data show further declines, EUR/USD could aim for the 1.09395 mark. Conversely, higher-than-expected inflation figures might reverse this bullish trend, potentially pushing the pair back to the well-established lows of 1.0600.
by BlackBull_Markets