PPI News Trade ideaHere are the most important developments:
Inflation in America declined yesterday, less than expected, to 3.0%, which increased bets that the US Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates next September.
• This matter led to severe bleeding in the US dollar, and in return, gold shined, approaching its highest historical level.
• Brianna: This weakness of the US dollar will continue, provided that... the inflation data on American industrialists declines.
PPI
No bigger driver for Gold than inflation this week? This week's economic calendar is dominated by US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) set for release.
Expectations are for a further decline in inflation, potentially strengthening the case for multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Economists polled by Reuters forecast annual consumer price inflation to have eased to 3.1% in June, down from 3.3% in May.
An interesting development today: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his appearance before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, expressed concerns about the potential risks of maintaining high interest rates for an extended period, which could threaten economic growth, CNBC reported.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
Gold prices edged higher, with XAU/USD trading at $2,364, up over 0.25%. The first resistance level for gold could be July 5 high at $2,392. On the downside, if nearer support levels fail, the next support zone could be the May 3 low of $2,277.
Euro's Next Moves: Biden, Powell, and Inflation Data The euro held steady at $1.0825 on Monday, recovering from a dip to $1.0815 as traders absorbed the surprising French election results, which saw a leftist alliance lead both the centrists and the right in the number of sets gained.
Key drivers for the EURUSD's next moves include Biden's potential resignation, upcoming bank earnings, Powell's testimony in Washington, and US CPI and PPI data, alongside Hurricane Beryl's developments.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
Both monthly and daily RSIs for EUR/USD are on the rise but remain below overbought levels, suggesting continued upward momentum. Should US inflation data show further declines, EUR/USD could aim for the 1.09395 mark. Conversely, higher-than-expected inflation figures might reverse this bullish trend, potentially pushing the pair back to the well-established lows of 1.0600.
Euro falls to six-week highThe euro has extended its losses on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0675 in the European session, down 0.59% on the day. The euro is down 1.17% this week and has dropped to its lowest level since May 1st.
France’s inflation level fell to zero in May, confirming the preliminary estimate and down from the 0.5% gain in April. France is the eurozone’s second-largest economy and the downtrend in inflation will be welcome news to the European Central Bank. The central bank delivered a rate cut last week, the first since its rate-tightening cycle began two years ago. ECB policymakers will be closely monitoring inflation data and could consider another cut in the fall if inflation continues to decline towards the 2% target. Eurozone inflation rose 2.4% in April, unchanged from March.
ECB President Lagarde speaks at an event in Croatia later on Friday and investors will be looking for hints as to the ECB’s planned rate path. Another cut in July is unlikely but a signal from Lagarde that additional rate cuts are one the table could boost the euro.
In the US, the producer price index rose 0.2%, below the April reading of 0.5% and lower than the market estimate of 0.1%. Yearly, PPI ticked lower to 2.2%, down from a revised 2.3% in March and below the market estimate of 2.5%.
The soft PPI data follows the May CPI report which also showed that inflation on the decline. The downtrend in these two inflation reports have raised expectations of a September rate cut, with a 61% of a quarter-point cut currently, compared to 46% just a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch.
EUR/USD pushed below support at 1.0709 and is testing support at 1.0679. Below, there is support at 1.0629
1.0763 and 1.0793 are the next resistance lines
Strifor || EURUSD-30/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The price did not approach the level of 1.09000 , at least in the first half of this week, and the euro quickly fell to 1.08000 . In the short term, the decline is likely to continue. An important point, of course, will be today's statistics from the US on GDP , the labor market, and so on.
We consider two scenarios, which are depicted in the graph. Scenario №1 assumes a fall from the level of 1.08000 , below which the price is currently located. Scenario №2 - preliminary growth above the level of 1.08000 , the buyer’s attempt to gain a foothold above, and to sell it will be necessary to wait until it closes below the specified level again. The target for the fall is considered to be at the level of 1.07500.
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Strifor || NZDUSD-14/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: The short-term strengthening of the US dollar's main competitors is relevant, and the New Zealand dollar is no exception. It should even be noted that this currency pair is among the top for short-term growth today. Strengthening of the NZDUSD is expected towards the level of 0.60713 , as well as in the case of the Australian dollar, there is a possibility of more significant growth, however, there is no need to raise the target too much since in the medium term there will most likely be a downward reversal.
According to our main scenario №1 , we expect growth from the current ones, and we can safely consider buying right now. Scenario №2 is extremely unlikely, but nevertheless, we highlight it as an alternative.
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Strifor || AUDUSD-14/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: The current week will be the most intense compared to the previous one, as a number of important economic data are expected to be published. The focus will certainly be on the US CPI.
Against this background, we still adhere to the buy priority for the Australian dollar and expect growth to the maximum level of 0.66460 from current prices (scenario №1) . This level is the main target, although you can expect a slight rise a little higher as part of a false upward movement. In the longer term, we also believe that the currency pair will turn downward.
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What did Powell say and what did gold do? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed reservations about the trajectory of disinflation in the US during his recent remarks, stating, "My confidence in that is not as high as it was." Despite this, he indicated that further rate hikes were unlikely based on the data from the first quarter of the year.
Powell's comments largely echoed those made during his last press conference following the Federal Reserve's previous meeting.
Market sentiment regarding the Fed's rate decisions appears to be slightly adjusting though, particularly after the release of new data showing faster-than-expected increases in producer prices in April. Traders are now considering a 60% chance of a rate cut in September, down slightly from the 64% chance before Powells remarks and the Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
Following the release of the PPI data, the XAU/USD pair climbed nearly 0.8% to $2,357, with potential for further gains in upcoming trading sessions. Technical analysis indicates that the next obstacle for gold prices lies near trendline resistance at $2,370, while immediate support rests close to $2,320, followed by the 50-day Moving Average.
Market attention now turns to the release of consumer price data for April, scheduled for Wednesday.
AUD/USD gains ground ahead of wage growthThe Australian dollar has posted gains on Tuesday. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6620 in the North American session at the time of writing.
Australia’s wage growth for the first quarter is expected to remain unchanged. Wages rose 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the highest since 2009, with most categories showing increases. On a quarterly basis, wage prices rose 1.9%, which was the lowest gain in three quarters. If the release is not within expectations, we could see a reaction from the Australian dollar.
Is the Reserve Bank of Australia considering a rate cut? The central bank hasn’t shown any rush to shift policy and held rates at 4.35% for a fourth straight time at last week’s meeting. The RBA has stressed that rate policy will be data-dependent and has made the battle against inflation its top priority.
A rate cut isn’t coming until inflation falls and the RBA doesn’t expect inflation to fall within the target range of 2-3% before 2025. Inflation has come down to 3.6% but the last phase of getting inflation within target could be the most difficult part, as the Federal Reserve has discovered. Unless inflation surprises with a sharp drop in the coming months, a rate cut is unlikely before November or early 2025.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at an event in Amsterdam later today and the markets will be looking for hints regarding a rate cut. The Fed has delayed plans to cut rates as the US economy remains resilient and inflation has unexpectedly accelerated. The US releases April inflation data this week and a drop in inflation would increase the likelihood of a rate cut in September. The US releases PPI is expected to remain unchanged at 2.4% in April while CPI is projected to ease to 3.6%, down from 3.8% in April.
AUD/USD tested support at 0.6602 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6559
0.6645 and 0.6688 are the next resistance lines
Gold analysis for 13/05/24 & 14/05/24According to my analysis and according to what you taught me, Tamas :
Scenario 1 :
If CPI comes negative on Wednesday, it could lead to deflation concerns, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic activity and prevent deflationary pressures. A negative CPI could indicate a decrease in the general price level of goods and services, potentially signaling weak demand or economic contraction
A decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates could weaken the dollar, as lower interest rates typically make a currency less attractive to investors seeking higher yields. This could lead to a depreciation of the dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other currencies
Gold prices may rise in response to a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors. Additionally, concerns about inflation and currency depreciation amid monetary easing measures could further support gold prices , Gold may Target 2394-2400
Scenario 2:
A positive CPI indicates an increase in the general price level of goods and services, suggesting inflationary pressures. This could lead to concerns about the purchasing power of the currency and potential future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation
If the PPI also shows an increase on Tuesday, it could reinforce inflationary expectations, indicating rising costs for producers. This might further support the case for potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to address inflationary pressures
Technical Analysis :
We're currently in Correction Wave , and Expecting Price to Pump for Gold target 2394-2401
Advice : please always use a propre risk management this is my analyse and good luck
Make sure if you like my Analysis to boost up my post and Comment
USDCAD: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: USDCAD
Pattern – Heavy Resistance
Support – 1.3514, 1.3454
Resistance – 1.3602
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at USDCAD daily.
What are we discussing and asking today after looking at USDCAD?
Will current heavy resistance contnue to block buyers? Does price have enough momentum in its current bull channel? Will this week's data and news be enough of an influence to set off a new break lower or higher?
Key news, US CPI, PPI, Fed meeting minutes. Canadian interest rate decision.
Good trading.
Strifor || USDJPY-14/03/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: We actively continue to follow our previous bullish scenarios for this currency pair. In general, in the medium term, we expect a strengthening of the US currency , which the Japanese yen will feel the most painfully. Moreover, earlier we talked about the long term, and here it is unlikely that we will have to wait for the price trading below the level of 150 . We expect that the instrument will trade above this psychological level.
According to the results of yesterday's trading, the Japanese currency was the first to demonstrate weakness and ready to capitulate against the US dollar in the medium term. A limit seller for JPY has appeared, or rather, a recent limit buyer is fixing his positions. A number of major currencies still have growth potential against the US dollar in the short term, but in the medium term they are likely to follow the same path as the yen. By the way, we also do not rule out a temporary strengthening of the Japanese yen , especially against the backdrop of the publication of PPI and Retail Sales , but it is unlikely that there will be an update of local lows.
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NZ dollar dips after hot US Producer Price IndexThe New Zealand dollar has lost ground on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6136, down 0.33%. On Friday, New Zealand releases the Manufacturing PMI.
It was a busy day in the US, and this writer expected that retail sales would be the highlight of the day. In the end, it was the Producer Price Index which stole the show and gave the US dollar a boost after a stronger-than-expected performance.
PPI for February surprised with a gain of 0.6% m/m, up sharply from 0.3% in January and the market estimate of 0.3%. This was the highest rate since August 2023 and the primary drivers of the upswing were increases in the price of goods and energy. On an annualized basis, PPI jumped 1.6%, up from a revised 0.9% in January
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to get worked up from the headline reading, as core PPI eased to 0.3% m/m, down from 0.5% in January but higher than the market estimate of 0.2%. On an annualized basis, core CPI remained steady at 2%, just above the market estimate of 1.9%.
Retail sales rebounded in February with a gain of 0.6% m/m, following a revised 1.1% decline in January but shy of the market estimate of 0.8%. Retail sales rose 1.5% y/y, after a zero reading in January.
New Zealand will wrap up the week with Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector has struggled and has been mired in negative territory for eleven straight months. Still, there was some improvement in January, as the PMI rose from 43.1 to 47.3, its highest level since June 2023. The upswing is expected to continue in February, with a forecast of 48.1.
NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6154. Below, there is support at 0.6092
There is resistance at 0.6240 and 0.6302
Aussie edges higher despite business confidence declineThe Australian dollar remains close to the 0.66 line, where it has been for most of the week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6620, up 0.21%.
The business sector is not feeling very confident about the near-term outlook of the Australian economy. The NAB Business Confidence index dipped to zero in February, down from one in January but above the forecast of -1. The NAB report noted that retail confidence remains deeply negative.
There was better news from the NAB Business Conditions index, which rose to 10 in February, up from 7 in January. By industry, manufacturing showed improvement but retail and construction weakened.
Australia’s economy has been limping along and consumers are still feeling the squeeze of the cost-of-living crisis and high mortgage payments as the Reserve Bank of Australia is yet to lower elevated interest rate levels. The RBA has raised rates only once since June 2023 and hasn’t ruled out rate hikes, although the markets have priced in rate cuts for later this year.
The RBA is unlikely to consider lowering rates until inflation falls lower. In January, CPI rose 3.4% y/y, still well above the RBA’s target band of 2-3%. The next meeting is on March 18th and the RBA is widely expected to maintain the cash rate of 4.35%.
Thursday will be busy in the US, with the release of retail sales, the producer price index and unemployment claims. Retail sales is often a market-mover and will be closely watched. The markets are expecting a strong rebound in February, with an estimate of 0.8% m/m. This follows a 0.8% decline in January, which was a 10-month low.
There is resistance at 0.6702 and 0.6780
0.6590 and 0.6512 are providing support
🔥 XAU/USD - First Long , Then SHORT (READ THE CAPTION)By re-examining the gold chart, we see that according to our expectations, gold continued to grow and has been able to grow up to $2008! Today we will have the important statistics of PPI, if the Actual rate is announced higher than expected rate, we can see the growth of the dollar index (DXY) and the fall of the gold price! In my opinion, it is possible that today the price will have a growth up to the range of 2011$ to 2019$ and then finally it will face a further fall, and the targets of this possible fall will be 1997$, 1985$ and 1977$, respectively!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Interest Rates Trading and Hedging Through a New LensIntroduction
In the dynamic world of financial markets, Micro 10-Year Yield Futures stand out as a pivotal tool for traders and investors. These futures offer unique opportunities to navigate the complexities of interest rates, particularly in an environment influenced by key economic indicators. This article delves into how traders can leverage both fundamental economic data and a novel technical analysis approach to optimize their strategies in trading and hedging with these futures.
Fundamental Analysis Approach
Understanding CPI, PPI, and Unemployment Rate:
Consumer Price Index (CPI): This indicator measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. It's a critical gauge of inflation, directly impacting interest rates and, consequently, the yields on Treasury securities.
Producer Price Index (PPI): PPI tracks the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation when producers pass on higher costs to consumers.
Unemployment Rate: This key metric reflects the number of unemployed workers as a percentage of the labor force. It’s vital for assessing the health of the economy, influencing monetary policy and interest rates.
These indicators, notably their changes, provide crucial insights for active trading, particularly in hedging strategies with Micro 10-Year Yield Futures. For instance, a higher-than-expected CPI or PPI might signal rising inflation, prompting traders to anticipate rate hikes and adjust their positions accordingly.
How to incorporate Fundamental Analysis into the trade decision process?
When making trading decisions for Micro 10-Year Yield Futures, it's crucial to understand the impact of economic reports on interest rates:
Buying (Long) Position Rationale:
When CPI, PPI, and Employment Rate (opposite of unemployment) are all increasing (indicated by green color on the chart), it typically suggests an expanding economy and potential inflationary pressures.
In such scenarios, interest rates are likely to rise to manage inflation. Hence, buying 10-Year Yield Futures could become a strategic move, anticipating a potential uptick in yields.
Selling Existing Long Positions:
A decrease in any of these indicators (CPI, PPI, Employment Rate) signals a potential slowdown or less aggressive inflationary pressure.
Traders holding long positions might consider selling to lock in profits or prevent losses, anticipating a potential drop in yields.
Selling (Short) Position Rationale:
If these reports show a decreasing trend (indicated by red color on the chart), it suggests economic contraction or reduced inflationary pressure.
Lower interest rates are often introduced to stimulate economic growth in such conditions. Shorting 10-Year Yield Futures could be advantageous as it would benefit from a potential fall in yields.
Buying Existing Short Positions:
An increase in any of these indicators (CPI, PPI, Employment Rate) signals a potential expanding economy and potential inflationary pressures.
Traders holding short positions might consider buying to lock in profits or prevent losses, anticipating a potential rise in yields.
Rationale Behind the Rules:
These rules are based on the traditional economic relationship between inflation, economic activity, and interest rates.
Rising inflation or strong economic growth (indicated by higher CPI, PPI, and Employment Rates) often leads to higher interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating.
Conversely, decreasing indicators suggest an economy that might need stimulation, often leading to lower interest rates.
By aligning trading strategies with these fundamental economic principles, traders can make more informed decisions, leveraging economic trends to speculate or hedge effectively.
Technical Analysis Approach
Yield Extremes and Curve Analysis:
This approach involves charting and combining the 2-Year and 30-Year yield futures contracts in one chart.
Analyzing the relationship between these yields provides insights similar to traditional yield curve analysis in a much more accessible format.
Key Indicator: A crossover between the 2-Year and 30-Year rates signifies a substantial shift in market sentiment and economic outlook.
How to Incorporate Technical Analysis into the Trade Decision Process?
As said, the crossover of yield rates between the 2-year and the 30-year yields is a pivotal event, suggesting significant changes in the yield curve. Here's how to interpret and act on these occurrences:
Identifying the Crossover Event:
A crossover event occurs when the 2-year yield rate overtakes the 30-year rate, or vice versa.
This event is indicative of a significant change in the interest rate environment, reflecting shifts in economic expectations and monetary policy.
Trading Strategy Based on Micro 10-Year Prior Price Action:
When the crossover occurs, the immediate strategy depends on the recent trend in the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures prices.
If the Micro 10-Year Yield was trending upwards prior to the crossover, it suggests bullish sentiment in the shorter term. In this scenario, traders could consider taking a short position, anticipating a potential reversal or bearish shift in the market.
Conversely, if the Micro 10-Year Yield was trending downwards, indicating bearish sentiment, traders could consider a long position post-crossover, capitalizing on the potential for a bullish reversal or recovery in prices.
Rationale Behind the Trade Rules:
The crossover event between the 2-Year and 30-Year yields represents a pivotal shift in market dynamics, often reflecting changes in economic policy, inflation expectations, or investor sentiment.
Prior price action in the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures provides a context for these shifts, indicating the market's prevailing trend and sentiment.
By aligning trading actions with both the yield curve dynamics (crossover event) and the recent trend of the Micro 10-Year Futures, traders can make informed decisions, leveraging the market's anticipated reaction to these significant economic indicators.
Market Outlook and Trade Plan
Keeping in mind the below tick and (Average True Range) ATR values, based on our analysis, we could express our market views through the following hypothetical set-ups:
Trade Plan for the Fundamental Analysis Approach:
ENTRY: Wait for the next CPI, PPI and Employment Rate reports and consider executing a trade if all 3 reports are either positive (long) or negative (short).
STOP LOSS: Located 1 Monthly ATR away from the entry price
Trade Plan for the Technical Analysis Approach:
ENTRY: The crossover may confirm itself at the end of the day. Wait for such confirmation and consider executing a short trade once confirmed.
STOP LOSS: Located 1 Monthly ATR away from the entry price
Tick Value: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Monthly ATR: The average volatility is measured as 0.509 at the time of this report
Trade Example: If the 2-Year yield rises above the 30-Year yield amid rising CPI, consider a short position anticipating rate hikes.
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Calculate this ratio to ensure a balanced approach to potential gains versus losses.
Risk Management in Futures Trading
Effective risk management is paramount. Utilize stop-loss orders and consider hedging techniques to mitigate potential losses. Understand the significance of economic reports and yield curve shifts in making informed decisions.
Conclusion
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures offer a versatile platform for interest rate trading and hedging. By combining monthly economic updates with a unique yield curve analysis approach, traders can navigate these markets with greater confidence and strategic foresight.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
GOLD|Important areas of supply and demandHello friends, I hope you are well.
We have the gold chart in the one-hour time frame.
Yesterday we said that we will wait if the support zone is broken down, the next target is the zone (2005-2008).
Now in this area, with the formation of candlestick patterns, it has moved upwards.
The areas that are important for us are the bottom of the previous broken area (2013) and the next area of the origin of the downward aggressive movement, i.e. the price range (2024-2028) for sell positions.
If we lose the support area (2008-2005), our next target is the support area (1990-1995).
⚡️Strifor || AUDUSD-US PPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Yesterday's CPI data practically allowed the US dollar to break through key local support/resistance levels and begin its growth. However, the market quickly ran to buy American currency, and in this case, the big money has no one to go to. In addition, the current pause may be associated with the next important data from the United States (PPI).
The setup remains the same for all major pairs. Here we cannot rule out an attempt at false growth ( scenario №2 ), so two scenarios are currently relevant. The target for the fall is level 0.65848.
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Core and Headline Producer Price Index (PPI) Release Core and Headline PPI (Dec 2023 figures)
U.S. Headline PPI
Prev: 0.8% / Exp: 1.3%
Rep: 1.0% ✅ Lower than expected ✅
U.S. Core PPI (excludes food and energy)
Prev: 2.0% / Exp: 1.9%
Rep: 1.8% ✅ Lower Than Expected✅
What is PPI and why is it important?
Producer Price Index is a crucial economic indicator that provides valuable information about inflationary pressures at the producer level. By tracking changes in producer prices over time, it provides insights into inflation trends before they manifest in consumer prices.
Difference between Core and Headline PPI
The Core PPI aims to provide a more stable measure of underlying inflation, while the headline index reflects all price changes, including those driven by more volatile components such as food an energy. You can see from the chart that Headline PPI in red is the swings more widely up and down due to the inclusion of these volatile components (food and energy).
✅ LOWER THAN EXPECTED PPI TODAY✅
Core and Headline PPI came in lower than expected this month and as you can see we are reaching down into the historically more moderate zone between 3% and -1.5%. This bodes will for inflationary pressures in general and may be an early indicator of lower Core and Headline inflation figures (for CPI) in the coming months.
PUKA
⚡️Strifor || SILVER-US PPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Recent events in the Middle East have made markets nervous. In turn, this has traditionally generated demand for metals. However, so far the situation is not particularly serious, since Yemen is a constant point of hostilities. There are unlikely to be any strong purchases in metals until the end of today's trading day. But after the weekend, it is better not to postpone deals of this kind to the next week.
Technically and considering volumes, shorts are still being looked for. We have two scenarios ready for the US PPI data. We consider the target for the fall to be at the level of 22.00.
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