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Strifor || USDJPY-14/03/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: We actively continue to follow our previous bullish scenarios for this currency pair. In general, in the medium term, we expect a strengthening of the US currency , which the Japanese yen will feel the most painfully. Moreover, earlier we talked about the long term, and here it is unlikely that we will have to wait for the price trading below the level of 150 . We expect that the instrument will trade above this psychological level. According to the results of yesterday's trading, the Japanese currency was the first to demonstrate weakness and ready to capitulate against the US dollar in the medium term. A limit seller for JPY has appeared, or rather, a recent limit buyer is fixing his positions. A number of major currencies still have growth potential against the US dollar in the short term, but in the medium term they are likely to follow the same path as the yen. By the way, we also do not rule out a temporary strengthening of the Japanese yen , especially against the backdrop of the publication of PPI and Retail Sales , but it is unlikely that there will be an update of local lows. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for boost and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
7
NZ dollar dips after hot US Producer Price IndexThe New Zealand dollar has lost ground on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6136, down 0.33%. On Friday, New Zealand releases the Manufacturing PMI. It was a busy day in the US, and this writer expected that retail sales would be the highlight of the day. In the end, it was the Producer Price Index which stole the show and gave the US dollar a boost after a stronger-than-expected performance. PPI for February surprised with a gain of 0.6% m/m, up sharply from 0.3% in January and the market estimate of 0.3%. This was the highest rate since August 2023 and the primary drivers of the upswing were increases in the price of goods and energy. On an annualized basis, PPI jumped 1.6%, up from a revised 0.9% in January The Federal Reserve is unlikely to get worked up from the headline reading, as core PPI eased to 0.3% m/m, down from 0.5% in January but higher than the market estimate of 0.2%. On an annualized basis, core CPI remained steady at 2%, just above the market estimate of 1.9%. Retail sales rebounded in February with a gain of 0.6% m/m, following a revised 1.1% decline in January but shy of the market estimate of 0.8%. Retail sales rose 1.5% y/y, after a zero reading in January. New Zealand will wrap up the week with Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector has struggled and has been mired in negative territory for eleven straight months. Still, there was some improvement in January, as the PMI rose from 43.1 to 47.3, its highest level since June 2023. The upswing is expected to continue in February, with a forecast of 48.1. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6154. Below, there is support at 0.6092 There is resistance at 0.6240 and 0.6302
by OANDA
Aussie edges higher despite business confidence declineThe Australian dollar remains close to the 0.66 line, where it has been for most of the week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6620, up 0.21%. The business sector is not feeling very confident about the near-term outlook of the Australian economy. The NAB Business Confidence index dipped to zero in February, down from one in January but above the forecast of -1. The NAB report noted that retail confidence remains deeply negative. There was better news from the NAB Business Conditions index, which rose to 10 in February, up from 7 in January. By industry, manufacturing showed improvement but retail and construction weakened. Australia’s economy has been limping along and consumers are still feeling the squeeze of the cost-of-living crisis and high mortgage payments as the Reserve Bank of Australia is yet to lower elevated interest rate levels. The RBA has raised rates only once since June 2023 and hasn’t ruled out rate hikes, although the markets have priced in rate cuts for later this year. The RBA is unlikely to consider lowering rates until inflation falls lower. In January, CPI rose 3.4% y/y, still well above the RBA’s target band of 2-3%. The next meeting is on March 18th and the RBA is widely expected to maintain the cash rate of 4.35%. Thursday will be busy in the US, with the release of retail sales, the producer price index and unemployment claims. Retail sales is often a market-mover and will be closely watched. The markets are expecting a strong rebound in February, with an estimate of 0.8% m/m. This follows a 0.8% decline in January, which was a 10-month low. There is resistance at 0.6702 and 0.6780 0.6590 and 0.6512 are providing support
by OANDA
1
🔥 XAU/USD - First Long , Then SHORT (READ THE CAPTION)By re-examining the gold chart, we see that according to our expectations, gold continued to grow and has been able to grow up to $2008! Today we will have the important statistics of PPI, if the Actual rate is announced higher than expected rate, we can see the growth of the dollar index (DXY) and the fall of the gold price! In my opinion, it is possible that today the price will have a growth up to the range of 2011$ to 2019$ and then finally it will face a further fall, and the targets of this possible fall will be 1997$, 1985$ and 1977$, respectively! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
104
Interest Rates Trading and Hedging Through a New LensIntroduction In the dynamic world of financial markets, Micro 10-Year Yield Futures stand out as a pivotal tool for traders and investors. These futures offer unique opportunities to navigate the complexities of interest rates, particularly in an environment influenced by key economic indicators. This article delves into how traders can leverage both fundamental economic data and a novel technical analysis approach to optimize their strategies in trading and hedging with these futures. Fundamental Analysis Approach Understanding CPI, PPI, and Unemployment Rate: Consumer Price Index (CPI): This indicator measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. It's a critical gauge of inflation, directly impacting interest rates and, consequently, the yields on Treasury securities. Producer Price Index (PPI): PPI tracks the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation when producers pass on higher costs to consumers. Unemployment Rate: This key metric reflects the number of unemployed workers as a percentage of the labor force. It’s vital for assessing the health of the economy, influencing monetary policy and interest rates. These indicators, notably their changes, provide crucial insights for active trading, particularly in hedging strategies with Micro 10-Year Yield Futures. For instance, a higher-than-expected CPI or PPI might signal rising inflation, prompting traders to anticipate rate hikes and adjust their positions accordingly. How to incorporate Fundamental Analysis into the trade decision process? When making trading decisions for Micro 10-Year Yield Futures, it's crucial to understand the impact of economic reports on interest rates: Buying (Long) Position Rationale: When CPI, PPI, and Employment Rate (opposite of unemployment) are all increasing (indicated by green color on the chart), it typically suggests an expanding economy and potential inflationary pressures. In such scenarios, interest rates are likely to rise to manage inflation. Hence, buying 10-Year Yield Futures could become a strategic move, anticipating a potential uptick in yields. Selling Existing Long Positions: A decrease in any of these indicators (CPI, PPI, Employment Rate) signals a potential slowdown or less aggressive inflationary pressure. Traders holding long positions might consider selling to lock in profits or prevent losses, anticipating a potential drop in yields. Selling (Short) Position Rationale: If these reports show a decreasing trend (indicated by red color on the chart), it suggests economic contraction or reduced inflationary pressure. Lower interest rates are often introduced to stimulate economic growth in such conditions. Shorting 10-Year Yield Futures could be advantageous as it would benefit from a potential fall in yields. Buying Existing Short Positions: An increase in any of these indicators (CPI, PPI, Employment Rate) signals a potential expanding economy and potential inflationary pressures. Traders holding short positions might consider buying to lock in profits or prevent losses, anticipating a potential rise in yields. Rationale Behind the Rules: These rules are based on the traditional economic relationship between inflation, economic activity, and interest rates. Rising inflation or strong economic growth (indicated by higher CPI, PPI, and Employment Rates) often leads to higher interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Conversely, decreasing indicators suggest an economy that might need stimulation, often leading to lower interest rates. By aligning trading strategies with these fundamental economic principles, traders can make more informed decisions, leveraging economic trends to speculate or hedge effectively. Technical Analysis Approach Yield Extremes and Curve Analysis: This approach involves charting and combining the 2-Year and 30-Year yield futures contracts in one chart. Analyzing the relationship between these yields provides insights similar to traditional yield curve analysis in a much more accessible format. Key Indicator: A crossover between the 2-Year and 30-Year rates signifies a substantial shift in market sentiment and economic outlook. How to Incorporate Technical Analysis into the Trade Decision Process? As said, the crossover of yield rates between the 2-year and the 30-year yields is a pivotal event, suggesting significant changes in the yield curve. Here's how to interpret and act on these occurrences: Identifying the Crossover Event: A crossover event occurs when the 2-year yield rate overtakes the 30-year rate, or vice versa. This event is indicative of a significant change in the interest rate environment, reflecting shifts in economic expectations and monetary policy. Trading Strategy Based on Micro 10-Year Prior Price Action: When the crossover occurs, the immediate strategy depends on the recent trend in the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures prices. If the Micro 10-Year Yield was trending upwards prior to the crossover, it suggests bullish sentiment in the shorter term. In this scenario, traders could consider taking a short position, anticipating a potential reversal or bearish shift in the market. Conversely, if the Micro 10-Year Yield was trending downwards, indicating bearish sentiment, traders could consider a long position post-crossover, capitalizing on the potential for a bullish reversal or recovery in prices. Rationale Behind the Trade Rules: The crossover event between the 2-Year and 30-Year yields represents a pivotal shift in market dynamics, often reflecting changes in economic policy, inflation expectations, or investor sentiment. Prior price action in the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures provides a context for these shifts, indicating the market's prevailing trend and sentiment. By aligning trading actions with both the yield curve dynamics (crossover event) and the recent trend of the Micro 10-Year Futures, traders can make informed decisions, leveraging the market's anticipated reaction to these significant economic indicators. Market Outlook and Trade Plan Keeping in mind the below tick and (Average True Range) ATR values, based on our analysis, we could express our market views through the following hypothetical set-ups: Trade Plan for the Fundamental Analysis Approach: ENTRY: Wait for the next CPI, PPI and Employment Rate reports and consider executing a trade if all 3 reports are either positive (long) or negative (short). STOP LOSS: Located 1 Monthly ATR away from the entry price Trade Plan for the Technical Analysis Approach: ENTRY: The crossover may confirm itself at the end of the day. Wait for such confirmation and consider executing a short trade once confirmed. STOP LOSS: Located 1 Monthly ATR away from the entry price Tick Value: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Monthly ATR: The average volatility is measured as 0.509 at the time of this report Trade Example: If the 2-Year yield rises above the 30-Year yield amid rising CPI, consider a short position anticipating rate hikes. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Calculate this ratio to ensure a balanced approach to potential gains versus losses. Risk Management in Futures Trading Effective risk management is paramount. Utilize stop-loss orders and consider hedging techniques to mitigate potential losses. Understand the significance of economic reports and yield curve shifts in making informed decisions. Conclusion Micro 10-Year Yield Futures offer a versatile platform for interest rate trading and hedging. By combining monthly economic updates with a unique yield curve analysis approach, traders can navigate these markets with greater confidence and strategic foresight. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
GOLD|Important areas of supply and demandHello friends, I hope you are well. We have the gold chart in the one-hour time frame. Yesterday we said that we will wait if the support zone is broken down, the next target is the zone (2005-2008). Now in this area, with the formation of candlestick patterns, it has moved upwards. The areas that are important for us are the bottom of the previous broken area (2013) and the next area of the origin of the downward aggressive movement, i.e. the price range (2024-2028) for sell positions. If we lose the support area (2008-2005), our next target is the support area (1990-1995). ​
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Golden_Star1994
3
⚡️Strifor || AUDUSD-US PPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Yesterday's CPI data practically allowed the US dollar to break through key local support/resistance levels and begin its growth. However, the market quickly ran to buy American currency, and in this case, the big money has no one to go to. In addition, the current pause may be associated with the next important data from the United States (PPI). The setup remains the same for all major pairs. Here we cannot rule out an attempt at false growth ( scenario №2 ), so two scenarios are currently relevant. The target for the fall is level 0.65848. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Core and Headline Producer Price Index (PPI) Release Core and Headline PPI (Dec 2023 figures) U.S. Headline PPI Prev: 0.8% / Exp: 1.3% Rep: 1.0% ✅ Lower than expected ✅ U.S. Core PPI (excludes food and energy) Prev: 2.0% / Exp: 1.9% Rep: 1.8% ✅ Lower Than Expected✅ What is PPI and why is it important? Producer Price Index is a crucial economic indicator that provides valuable information about inflationary pressures at the producer level. By tracking changes in producer prices over time, it provides insights into inflation trends before they manifest in consumer prices. Difference between Core and Headline PPI The Core PPI aims to provide a more stable measure of underlying inflation, while the headline index reflects all price changes, including those driven by more volatile components such as food an energy. You can see from the chart that Headline PPI in red is the swings more widely up and down due to the inclusion of these volatile components (food and energy). ✅ LOWER THAN EXPECTED PPI TODAY✅ Core and Headline PPI came in lower than expected this month and as you can see we are reaching down into the historically more moderate zone between 3% and -1.5%. This bodes will for inflationary pressures in general and may be an early indicator of lower Core and Headline inflation figures (for CPI) in the coming months. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCPPYY
by PukaCharts
⚡️Strifor || SILVER-US PPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Recent events in the Middle East have made markets nervous. In turn, this has traditionally generated demand for metals. However, so far the situation is not particularly serious, since Yemen is a constant point of hostilities. There are unlikely to be any strong purchases in metals until the end of today's trading day. But after the weekend, it is better not to postpone deals of this kind to the next week. Technically and considering volumes, shorts are still being looked for. We have two scenarios ready for the US PPI data. We consider the target for the fall to be at the level of 22.00. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAGUSD
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
🔥 XAUUSD : The Fall will Continue ?By checking the gold chart in the daily time frame, we can see that the price according to our expectation was accompanied by a further fall and was able to correct up to $1973! Be careful, this fall will continue only if it stabilizes below the level of 1987$! In this case, the next falling targets will be $1966, $1960 and $1939 respectively! Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
!!! ↘︎ Multi-day Streak(period): No Santa this Christmas ↘︎ !!!✺ End of Bulls rally after the most successful trading day since April. ✺ The possibility of the Goldilocks scenario - is it on the horizon? ✓ PPI data has been reported today. Key fact: "Firms no longer optimistic" BLACKBULL:SPX500 After the longest period of growth in 2024, the market closed at -0.41 rate, putting the end to the robust bulls rally since the last week. The PPI report came out during the pre-market hours. The result, from the surface was seemingly positive from market perspective. Although, always the detail is the devil. The overall result came out in favor of regular consumer, seeing drastic decrease in manufacturing cost in total: (Processed goods for intermediate demand) Prices for processed goods for intermediate demand moved down 0.9 percent in October, the largest decrease since falling 1.6 percent in May. Leading the October decline, the index for processed energy goods dropped 4.3 percent. Prices for processed foods and feeds decreased 0.4 percent. In contrast, the index for processed materials less foods and energy advanced 0.1 percent. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for processed goods for intermediate demand fell 4.5 percent. The largest contribute to the odds was the transportation and warehousing which increased for about 1.5 percent. The warehousing and transportation contains various subjects from regular staffing needs to delivery of goods, signifying that the era of pandemic is yet remain in the market. The Empire state manufacturing Survey begins with the headline, "Firms No Longer Optimistic," as the future business conditions index plunging from twenty-four points to -0.9, the lowest since 2022. Troublesome in logistics with increased unfulfilled shipment, lacking number of employees, decreased employee work hours, signifying operational challenges residing within the industry. Facing these resilient challenges, business have forecasted in contrast to market's optimistic expectations: General business conditions from twenty-three to -0.9 followed by decreased number of new orders, increased unfilled orders and shipments, lacking performance over all. Back to the graph, here are some key price-lines for the rest of this week on BLACKBULL:SPX500 (red lines): 1. Bull $4506-4521 (Largest volume allocated for the last 5 days) 2. Bear $4393.66-4360 (Largest volume allocated since Oct 28th) With few significant leaps in the previous week and this Monday, the market might have fooled us by acting as if these were the clues as to guarantee the potential end of the year rally. With big CPI report and lots of unexpected positive earnings from larger tech firms and overall, we were able to get through the $4393 resistance level without a hurdle, and it seems that we just ran out of those events to create the unexpectencies to get us through the new high. Plus, the Inverse U-shape pattern is one of my favorite along with Inverse W-pattern (or Double top), and as large the previous leap was, this down trend will also be way much more accelerated with higher velocity than which we anticipated. We all know that demand is the driving factor of the market, but without the proper level of supply to meet the market needs, will only cause higher inflation, simply will lead to another rate hike from the fed. I think today's inverse trend was only the smallest part portraying the fear residing beneath the surface.
BLACKBULL:SPX500Short
by Kim_CLSPX
GBP/USD edges lower, eyes retail salesThe British pound has extended its losses on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2401, down 0.11%. The pound is having a roller-coaster week. GBP/USD surged 1.8% on Tuesday following the soft US inflation print and climbed to a two-month high. However, the pound has since coughed up about half those gains and is trading at the 1.24 line. The UK releases retail sales on Friday, which could result in further volatility. UK retail sales had a dreadful September, coming in at -0.9% m/m and missing the forecast of 0.2%. The markets are expecting a rebound in October, with a forecast of 0.3%. September was unseasonably hot, which led to fewer purchases of autumn clothing. Consumers remain deeply pessimistic about the economy and are being squeezed by higher heating and fuel costs, elevated borrowing costs and a softer job market. On the inflation front, there was good news on Wednesday as inflation dropped to 4.6%, down sharply from 6.7% and below the forecast of 4.8%. This was the lowest level since October 2021 and inflation has finally dropped below 5%. However, the BoE has been stressing that the battle against inflation is far from over, and has projected that inflation won't fall to the 2% target until late 2025. In the US, producer prices fell 0.5% m/m in October, its largest drop since April 2020 and below expectations. The decline in gasoline prices was a major factor in the soft release. Retail sales for October dipped 0.1%, missing the estimate of 0.3% and snapping a six-month streak of gains. The weak numbers are further evidence that the US economy is cooling down. GBP/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.2374. Below, there is support at 1.2312 1.2476 and 1.2522 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Trading Plans for THU. 09/14 - PPI and Initial Jobless ClaimsS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/14 As of the latest trading plans we published yesterday, Wed. 09/13: "Our models indicate bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470 on a daily close basis. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias". Just like the CPI numbers yesterday, the PPI numbers and the Initial Jobless Claims this morning came in a way that leaves room for subjective interpretations of being pro-bulls or pro-bears. The pre-session price action following the PPI and Jobless claims numbers this morning prompted our models to update their bias from bearish to neutral/indeterminate. Models continue to indicate that the index has to close above 4507 on a daily close basis to flip to a bullish bias. Between 4460 and 4507, models indicate a neutral/indeterminate bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4487, 4471, or 4450 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4484, 4467, 4456, or 4448 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4449. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #cpi, #ppi, #initialjoblessclaims, #joblessclaims
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
US500 - Inflation data aheadHi Traders, last week the US500 did a correction as expected. Right now price is at a interesting level for Bulls (arround July High) Next week we have to put our eyes on the US inflation data. On wednesday we have the Core CPI. The forcase is +0,2% What is the core CPI? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. On Thursday we also need to watch for PPI - which is likely a good indicator for future CPI values. What is the PPI? The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Wish you all good trades! Team tegasFX
CAPITALCOM:US500
by tegasFX
Hyperinflation China (CNY) + Japan (JPY) First to Go! Chinese real-estate has collapsed China refuses to update new unemployment metrics (like they've ever told the truth) China BOC keeps printing to backstop this (parabolic m3/m2) China forcing peoples money trapped in this death spiral Japan Real estate is also dead Japan stocks / Gasoline is going parabolic due to the start of hyperinflation not a booming economy Japan's BOJ also can't stop printing! what could go wrong? I've made post about this months ago with warning signs about Japan's stock market going parabolic without anything going on. This is text book Weimar Germany 1923, why the Chinese stocks going down though? simple the capital is trying everything to exit into US markets. The CCP has printed so much money and you know what people did with it? they sold it for US Dollars and used it overseas because nobody is buying the bs that China is a booming / powerful economy its completely collapsing you love to see it!. Japan? their currency is done. Both these countries have debt to GDP past the point of no return. Both these countries have PPI / CPI going parabolic past the point of no return. People have started to panic in China and it will follow in Japan followed by a complete meltdown, but the trick here is there's a chance this will not take out the US markets ironically. All of this capital will flow back into the USA. The final take away from this is the US markets see's strength not from "Real growth" but from countries where people have no option to diverse and enter the US market. "Forecasters recession this recession that" it never equals what the markets actually do.
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
3
NQ1! Supply and Demand Levels 8/6/23 (15MIN TF)Link to chart: www.tradingview.com Looking at the higher timeframe, we hit a ceiling of multiple rejections to the upside. On the /ES, we tapped into the 2022 highest resistance and we were immediately shut out. Coming into this week, we do have important news that can rampage the numbers and volatility. I am not planning to trade much but I wanted to share the levels on my chart that I am watching. Based on the pattern formations we can have a double top on the daily or a double bottom on the 4HR, and with news it may push 1-3% change. Following the pivot points on the 4HR as well. EOW Possibilities: BULLS: 15735-15900 BEARS: 15020-15166
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by tradeswithjess
Gold Outlook: Vulnerable Dollar and Promising Upside PotentialHey Traders, In tomorrow's upcoming trading session, our keen focus will be on XAUUSD, the trading pair of gold against the US dollar. We are closely monitoring this market for a potential buying opportunity within the price range of approximately 1940. From a technical standpoint, XAUUSD is currently engaged in an upward trend and undergoing a consolidation phase, gradually approaching the key level of support and resistance at 1940. Furthermore, it is important to consider the fundamental factors influencing this market. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated a softer performance, implying that future monetary policies are likely to adopt a more dovish stance. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) also displayed a similar softness. These factors combined have generated an increased appeal for gold and cryptocurrencies among investors. Given this context, the convergence of favorable technical indicators and supportive fundamental factors enhances the attractiveness of gold and cryptocurrencies as investment options. Thus, we anticipate a heightened interest from investors in exploring opportunities within the XAUUSD market, particularly around the 1940 zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
16
The end of the tightening cycle is nighThe decline in the US inflation rate to more than a two-year low, marks a major step towards the end of the Fed’s historic monetary tightening cycle1. We believe key deflationary forces are in play – (1) weaker commodity prices (2) improvement in global supply chains (3) moderation in demand (4) lower inflation expectations. Therefore, the June decline in inflation is just the start of a series of decreases. Softer than expected inflation report As highlighted in the chart below, the details for June were also better than expected with key measures of underlying inflation coming in below forecasts. The inflation report suggests that some of the stickier components of inflation such as used cars and airline fares are also moderating. It’s important to note that most of the rise in the June CPI can be attributed to housing, however because of the way it is calculated it tends to lag current conditions. The S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index which tends to lead CPI shelter by roughly a year, is already flat which highlights US inflation is likely headed lower. Inflation for labour intensive services such as restaurants, recreation and personal care remained higher in June reflecting the pass -through of higher wages and robust services demand2. Potential further softening in the labour market could bring these categories back to target consistent levels. Softening in the labour market was evident in June’s employment report (nonfarm payrolls rose by 209k versus consensus 230k) which was weaker than expected for the first time in 15 months3. US Producer Prices confirmed a similar deflationary theme. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation for June was softer than expected with headline and core PPI advancing 0.1% over the prior month4. Business surveys are also pointing to weakening pricing power, such as the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) services index which ties in with a lower inflation backdrop. US inflation can’t prevent the July rate hike While expectations for the July rate hike of 25Bps remain firmly in place, the market has scaled back expectations for a second hike – with 21bps / 3bps / 3bps of hikes priced for the July / September / November FOMC meetings5. The disinflation trend increases our belief that the Fed is close to, or will be, at the end of the current rate hike cycle. Earnings take centre stage for the next leg of the rally The key question now remains whether the market continues to trade off expectations of an easing narrative. Central bank policy has been the biggest drag for equities last year. The timing of the easing narrative comes at the heels of a volatile Q2 2023 earnings season. The S&P 500 Index earnings in the Q2 2023 are expected to decline 6.8% y/y, worse than the decline of 3.9% in the Q1 20233. This would be the largest earnings decline since the pandemic-fuelled 31.6% y/y decline in the Q2 2020. Earnings will be the key deciding factor for an extension in the current rally. Investors will be keen to hear from management whether they are looking to adopt a leaner cost structure and ways they are looking to remove excess capacity. Investors will be looking for guidance on productivity and efficiency gains rather than the financial engineering we have witnessed over the past decade. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:DFF
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
✏️ GOLD : Bull or Bear ? (PPI's effect)Well, as you can see, after yesterday's latest update and the 60 pip price correction, gold faced buying pressure again and managed to grow up to $1963! Now, in half an hour we will have the PPI statistics and unemployment claims in America, which will have a great impact on the price and the market and can bring the price to extreme fluctuations. I don't have many special offers for you today, and it is better to watch the price movements than trading on it . But in general, there are 2 important possibilities, one is that the price from this area will attack the large liquidity pool in the area above $1973, and the other is that if the actual PPI rate is will be announced higher than predicted rate, It may cause rejection of gold from this area! Don't Forghet To Push The Boost (Like) Button and Follow Me for more ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
55
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 7/13/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2023 - PR High: 15485.50 - PR Low: 15455.75 - NZ Spread: 66.75 Margins raised again ahead of PPI 08:30 – Initial Jobless Claims - PPI Daily range broken, making new year high - Supply response over prev session high - Ranging in prev session high into London hours - PR+1 broken with retrace for inventory Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Session Open ATR: 212.31 - Volume: 31K - Open Int: 251K - Trend Grade: Neutral - From ATH: -7.6% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 15533 - Mid: 15247 - Short: 14675 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQU2023Long
by mv3trader5