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PPI Data, Rate Hikes, QQQ / SPX Support and Resistance- CPI data came in expected today, excpet core is 0.1% hotter market didn't really care since we need something really hot to not get a 0.25bps - PPI data likely will come in expected as well today, since CPI was pretty aligned so technical matter more now - SPX came close to 200 MA today rejected the 3940 area but QQQ is above 200 MA - QQQ and SPX reject resistance at the same time - QQQ broke 294.5 support (yesterdays triple top resistance) in the afternoon and bears didn't follow through bulls V shaped into close - KRE and XLF both still in daily bear flag territory. KEY QQQ & SPX BOTH is still under resistance even though we V shaped we closed right under it, so still in the chop range, I am neutral now yesterday i was bull lean and played the bull move this morning as i mentioned when we broke the triple top resistance at 294.5 QQQ I am going long. Now at this range its anyone's game since there are both bear thesis and bull thesis that are both correct at these levels. currently all cash took profit this morning likely scalping depending on which side we break tomorrow.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ArcadiaTrading
2
EUR/USD at 3-week low after strong US dataThe euro is down for a third straight day and fell earlier to 1.0629, its lowest level since Jan. 23. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0639, down 0.30%. The US dollar is showing some strength this week against the majors, as US data continues to shine. Retail sales impressed with a 3% gain earlier this week, and PPI and unemployment claims were both better than expected. Is the disinflation process stalled? The markets didn't expect such good numbers, but the economy has proved to be surprisingly resilient to rising interest rates. The Fed has been preaching 'higher for longer' for some time, but the markets stuck to their dovish stance, expecting that the Fed would have to pivot and even cut rates later in the year. The host of strong US numbers has forced investors to recalibrate, and the markets have revised upwards their peak rate forecast to above 5%. The US dollar has been the big winner of the shift in market thinking, and US Treasury yields are at their highest level this year. Fed member Mester said she saw a strong case for raising rates by 50 basis points at the last Fed meeting, a sign that the Fed could move away from the moderate 25-bp hikes if inflation isn't falling quickly enough. Mester said that she didn't see inflation falling to 2% until 2025, which points to a long disinflation process. The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points in February and has signalled that it will do the same at the Mar. 16 meeting. The main financing rate is currently at 3%, well below the Fed (4.5%) and other major central banks. It's not clear what the Bank has planned after the first quarter, but with inflation running at 8.5%, the risk for further rate hikes is skewed to the upside. The ECB has made it clear that rates will remain high until there is evidence that inflation is falling toward the target, which means that the current rate-tightening cycle isn't anywhere near its end. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0629. Below, there is support at 1.0581 1.0762 and 1.0847 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
1
Key Levels and Market overview into the Asian session openA look at the price action from the European and US sessions and what that may mean for the Asian market open after PPI out in the US was stronger than expected adding fuel to the inflation fire. I feel data is still showing 'sticky inflation' which eventually leads to higher interest rates and lower spending which will cap the indexes. Intraday the US could not hold up off the lows and was hit hard into the close with potential to continue lower. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to play out. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
CBOT:ZT1!
by TradeTheStructure
2
BTC (1h) vs CPI and PPI announcementsBTC price action on the days of #CPI and #PPI announcements for Oct 2022 through Jan 2023. Yellow = #CPI announce dates Pink = #PPI announce dates Oct announce (for Sept) #CPI = BTC up #PPI = BTC up Nov announce (for Oct) #CPI = BTC up #PPI = BTC up Dec announce (for Nov) #CPI = BTC up #PPI = BTC down Jan announce (for Dec) #CPI = BTC up #PPI = BTC down *** Notes December PPI was announced before CPI, probably due to holiday season for gov . Used hashtags to prevent TV from auto linking #CPI and #PPI to charts for indexes/stocks with same ticker
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoKujira
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/16/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2023 - PR High: 12750.50 - PR Low: 12731.25 - NZ Spread: 43.25 Evening Stats (As of 1:40 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13237) - Session Open ATR: 275.31 - Volume: 27K - Open Int: 271K - Trend Grade: Bear - From ATH: -23.8% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 12959 - Mid: 12392 - Short: 11820 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQH2023Long
by mv3trader5
GOLD SHORT TERM INTRADAY IDEAIntraday Analysis - ( 16 FEB 2023 ) Strong retail sales did not hold any weight yesterday which was not expected. Overall dollar has made new intraday highs and is in a retest for better buy side liquidity for further upside to targeted region of 105.5. Gold is in a retest as seen to better sell zones as marked out based off FM key levels. There will be PPI tonight and if it comes out as per forecast, we would see another leg down on gold. Overall my bias for gold stands with it being bearish and dollar being dominant. HRHR SELLS AT 1850-1852 MRMR SELLS AT 1836 SAFEST SELLS BELOW 1830 TARGET LOOKING AT 1820 POSSIBLY EVEN 1810s region
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
2
Everyone Believes What They Want to BelieveRealty != Belief The secret to this market is to lower your expectation continually. Bulls do not realize they are sitting in the largest bull trap ever setup. Macro bottom still pending... it's more of the same: drop, consolidate, drop. A wise Bera once said: Resistance is infinite and unbounded. When a level is broken, there will always be more resistance higher up. Support is not though, support is capped at 0. The Fed's view: www.federalreserve.gov What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing? "It would be unprecedented for job vacancies (openings) to decline by a large amount without the economy falling into recession. We are, in effect, saying that something unprecedented can occur." Lagging Crash Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008. The broader stock market did not begin its crash until a week later. Everyone initially thought Lehman wasn't a systemic risk. You say crypto crash can not crash stocks with a LAG? The doom loop is accelerating. Few understand this.
AMEX:VEUShort
by shri30389
3
BTC Futures Rising Wedge Forming, confluence with newsI frequently chart the BTC CME Futures chart alongside a normal BTC Exchange chart. The difference between them is that CME is closed for the weekend and operated by a regulated group. This means the CME chart can frequently show different trends/patterns as it removed a lot of the noise, unnecessary wicks, etc that can come from exchanges trading over the weekend. I'm watching the early stages of this rising wedge forming. It's a bit early to call it a confirmed pattern still but worth putting on the radar. I often like to find confluence in charts aligning with news; I don't trade news but news is often a perfect catalyst for patterns to breakout. So what I have shown in the chart is a pattern that comes to an apex in about a week's time. And we have February right around the corner with a lot of news coming out, specifically the FOMC meeting minutes releasing on February 1st. This would be the perfect catalyst to create some volatility, quickly eliminate overleveraged longs and shorts, and then push for a pattern break of the rising wedge. Marking this idea as short as I am bearish overall and ready for a market reset, but note that this chart displays an idea where BTC gets one more push higher at the beginning of this week. Happy to answer any questions people have on this idea!
CME:BTC1!Short
by Obscure_Trading
AUD/USD slides after soft Aussie job reportThe Australian dollar has extended its slide on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6884 in Europe, down 0.82%. Australia's December employment report was weaker than expected, sending the Australian dollar sharply lower. The headline reading showed a loss of 14,600 in total employment, which may have soured investors. The release wasn't all that bad, as full-time jobs showed gains of 17,600, with part-time positions falling by 32,200. The unemployment rate remained at 3.5%, but this was a notch higher than the forecast of 3.4%. On the inflation front, recent releases point to inflation moving higher. November CPI rose to 7.3%, up from 6.9%, and the Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations climbed to 5.6%, up from 5.2%. We'll get a look at the all-important quarterly inflation reading next week. Inflation came in at 1.8% q/q in Q3, and an acceleration in Q4 would force the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider raising rates higher and for longer than it had anticipated. The cash rate is currently at 3.10%, and I expect the RBA will raise it to 3.50% or a bit higher, which means we are looking at further rate hikes early in the year. The US dollar seems to take a hit every time there is a soft US release, and this week has had its share of weak data. The Empire State Manufacturing Index sank to -32.9, while headline and core retail sales both fell by -1.1%. PPI came in at -0.5%. All three releases were weaker than the November readings and missed the forecasts, indicating that cracks are appearing across the US economy, as the bite of higher rates is being felt. The markets are clinging to the belief that softer numbers will force the Fed to ease up on its pace of rate hikes and possibly end the current rate-cycle after a 25-bp increase in February. The Fed has done its best to dispel speculation that it will pivot, but I expect the US dollar to lose ground if key releases are weaker than expected. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6893. Below, there is support at 0.6810 0.6944 and 0.7027 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
S&P 500 (SPX)/Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Leading Market LowerToday, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’. In addition to this, I wanted to layer on the S&P 500 (SPX), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), & U.S. Recessions as these (3) inputs seem to have a very intersting correlation to the relative predictive timing of previous recessionary periods — both in 01’ & 08’. I’ve also added the “MACD Indicator” (bottom indicator) & the “Distance from Moving Average” (first indicator), using the SMA 144 & 200 Bar Lookback as these help highlight overbought/oversold conditions in the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) — which could help you identify tactical market positioning opportunities (long or short). Here is the chart key for this setup: 📊🔑 Black/White Bars = S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Blue Line = SPX (SPY ES1!) Orange Line = Unemployment (UNRATE) Vertical Black Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Ratio Peak (SPX/PPIACO) Vertical Orange Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Unemployment Trough (UNRATE) Vertical Blue Dotted Line = Pre-Recession S&P 500 Peak (SPX) 1990 - 2023 Overview (Monthly) 📊 *2001 Recession* (Monthly & Weekly) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Mar. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = Apr. 00’ Peak (SPX) = Aug. 00’ *2008 Recession* (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Trough (UNRATE) = May 07’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = June 07’ Peak (SPX) = Oct. 07’ 2023 Recession? (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 7 bars (months), but no “technical recession”…* Peak (SPX) = Dec. 21’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Jan. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = July 22’ What are your initial thoughts & observations from this chart setup? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
SP:SPXShort
by kylemusserco
1
Leading Indicators - PPI (PPIACO) vs. Unemployment (UNRATE) I wanted to highlight how the peak (downward move) in the Producer Price Index (PPIACO) typically corresponds with the trough (upward move) in the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) (inverse correlation), as a period of Recession takes hold on the economy, & the financial markets. I also wanted to compare the above correlation with cycle tops in WTI Crude Oil (WTISPLC) , & also with respect to the OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM) — as this helps to pinpoint some of the historic baseline(s) for predicting the peak &/or trough in the business vs. market (financial) cycles. Here is the key for the attached chart(s): Top Chart Black Line (Unemployment Rate - UNRATE): *Black Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Trough Blue Line (Producer Price Index - PPIACO): *Blue Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Peak Orange Line (WTI Spot Crude - WTISPLC): *Orange Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Peak Red Shaded Areas (Recession): Indicator via @chrism665 Bottom Chart OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): *Black Dashed Line* = Pre-Recession Indicator Peak Green Horizontal Dotted Line = Expansion Baseline (100) Orange Horizontal Dotted Line = Current Reading (98.62) Red Horizontal Dotted Line = Danger Zone (<97) Red Shaded Areas (Recession): Indicator via @chrism665 Looking at the larger picture of both charts, you can see that typically in previous periods of Recession you would see this flow of the signals (first to peak/trough, last to peak/trough): Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM) Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) *Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO)* *Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC)* *Note* - As you can see PPIACO & WTISPLC are very closely correlated as demand peaks out, you then see a shift downward in WTISPLC as this is a signal of the topping of economic growth. Now let's dive close-up into each time period of recession, as we can see some linkages/similarities in the 1991, 2001, & 2009 recessions vs. the what is (likely) a 23' recession, depending how the economic , markets , & financial data plays out this upcoming year — potentially into 24'. 1991 Recession Timeline Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): July 1987 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Mar. 1989 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): Oct. 1990 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): Nov. 1990 2001 Recession Timeline Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Jan. 2000 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Apr. 2000 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): Nov. 2000 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): Jan. 2001 2009 Recession Timeline Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): May 2007 Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): June 2007 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): June 2008 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): July 2008 2023(24) Recession Estimated? Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): May 2021 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): June 2022 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): June 2022 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Sept. 2022 What do you think about this macro analysis? Have we potentially been in a recession in 22' — or are we moving closer to higher unemployment (UNRATE) in 23' as the macro/market conditions worsen, & the Federal Reserve's tighter monetary conditions (liquidity & credit) take their toll on the economy? Let me know what you think in the comments below! 👇🏼
FRED:UNRATEShort
by kylemusserco
USD/JPY dips lower as PPI jumpsThe Japanese yen has started the week with losses. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 137.44, down 0.64%. Japanese wholesale inflation climbed 9.3% y/y in November, a drop lower than the 9.4% gain in October. This was above the consensus of 8.9%, as a peak in inflation remains elusive. The continuing increase in raw material costs has forced companies to pass on these costs. Higher commodity prices and a weak yen have raised the costs of imports, which has boosted wholesale and consumer inflation. If this upward trend continues, it could damage Japan's fragile economy, but the Bank of Japan has insisted that inflation is transitory and has been unwilling to change its ultra-accommodative policy. Is this the calm before the storm? USD/JPY has been subdued for almost a week, but I would not be surprised to see stronger movement in the next day or two, with a host of key events on the economic calendar. On Tuesday, Japan releases the BoJ Tankan report, which is expected to show a slowdown in manufacturing, but stronger non-manufacturing activity due to the easing in Covid restrictions. The US releases the November CPI report, and we have seen how softer-than-expected CPI data sent risk appetite flying and the US dollar tumbling lower. The consensus for CPI is 7.3%, following a 7.7% gain in October. The inflation report will be followed by the Federal Reserve rate announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to deliver a 50-basis point hike, which is an oversize rate increase. Still, coming after four straight hikes of 75 bp, the Fed has found it difficult to dampen investor speculation that the Fed may soon wind up the current tightening cycle. The Fed recently paraded a stream of FOMC members to deliver hawkish messages, but the markets seem intent on seizing any data that supports the equity markets, and another soft inflation report could achieve that result and send the dollar downwards. USD/JPY tested resistance at 137.13 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 138.25 There is support at 136.37 and 135.07
by OANDA
GBP/USD edges higher, US PPI loomsThe British pound has posted slight gains today. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2257, up 0.32%. After a rather uneventful week for the US dollar, next week could be marked by plenty of action, with a host of key releases on both sides of the pond. The BoE and Federal Reserve are expected to deliver 50 bp hikes, and we'll get a look at the latest inflation data from both the UK and the US. Like the Federal Reserve, the BoE has also circled inflation as public enemy number one, but Governor Bailey doesn't have the luxury of a strong economy to work with. With GDP in negative territory and inflation at a staggering 11.1%, the economy may already be experiencing stagflation, but Bailey can ill afford to allow inflation expectations to become more entrenched. Winter is likely to be a season of discontent, with railroad and other public workers threatening to go on strike, as the cost-of-living crisis has hit households hard. The Federal Reserve will be keeping a close eye on the US inflation report, which will be released just one day before the Fed's policy meeting. Inflation has eased over the past several months, but the Fed has been very cautious and is still reluctant to declare that inflation has peaked. The Fed has not looked kindly on market exuberance triggered by soft inflation reports, and paraded a stream of Fed members to remind investors that inflation remains unacceptably high and the fight to curb inflation remains far from over. The markets will get a look at US inflation data later today, with the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). The index is expected to drop to 7.4%, down from 8.0%. A decline in PPI would reinforce expectations that we'll see a drop in CPI as well next week. 1.2169 and 1.2027 are the next support levels GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2169. Below, there is support at 1.2027
by OANDA
1
$EUR - Now we wait...$EUR - Now we wait... EUR we are within the ranges of Highs: 1.05190 Lows: 1.04375. We either re visits the higher high or we go to lower low areas of where are are. For now, we wait we are in a choppy condition its break to either levels. With US PPI tomorrow and then feds next week, I don't expect much movement compared to yesterday I will be on side-line until this is all confirmed and i'm looking for quick day trades in out as volume will start to dry up as its December. Don't forget to trade your own trade plan. Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
US Inflation Rate, YoY, Double Top? - Long-term ViewPresently, the inflation rate in the US has started falling, which increases expectations for a pivot - end of interest rate hikes. And factually, we can actually expect it. The supply of M2 Money Stock (M2SL) and its annual growth rate are decreasing. The global economy is shifting, as leading economic index (LEI) indicate. This will undoubtedly put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, after the current crisis, the economic recovery will cause a recurrence of inflation. So, if that is the case, the next decade will be marked by tight monetary policy and high inflation. This situation will let the central banks introduce a new monetary system based on CBDCs using incentives such as cheaper credit. Check also my related ideas. Enjoy
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by MichaelFX_ICT