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GBP/USD edges higher, US PPI loomsThe British pound has posted slight gains today. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2257, up 0.32%. After a rather uneventful week for the US dollar, next week could be marked by plenty of action, with a host of key releases on both sides of the pond. The BoE and Federal Reserve are expected to deliver 50 bp hikes, and we'll get a look at the latest inflation data from both the UK and the US. Like the Federal Reserve, the BoE has also circled inflation as public enemy number one, but Governor Bailey doesn't have the luxury of a strong economy to work with. With GDP in negative territory and inflation at a staggering 11.1%, the economy may already be experiencing stagflation, but Bailey can ill afford to allow inflation expectations to become more entrenched. Winter is likely to be a season of discontent, with railroad and other public workers threatening to go on strike, as the cost-of-living crisis has hit households hard. The Federal Reserve will be keeping a close eye on the US inflation report, which will be released just one day before the Fed's policy meeting. Inflation has eased over the past several months, but the Fed has been very cautious and is still reluctant to declare that inflation has peaked. The Fed has not looked kindly on market exuberance triggered by soft inflation reports, and paraded a stream of Fed members to remind investors that inflation remains unacceptably high and the fight to curb inflation remains far from over. The markets will get a look at US inflation data later today, with the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). The index is expected to drop to 7.4%, down from 8.0%. A decline in PPI would reinforce expectations that we'll see a drop in CPI as well next week. 1.2169 and 1.2027 are the next support levels GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2169. Below, there is support at 1.2027
by OANDA
1
$EUR - Now we wait...$EUR - Now we wait... EUR we are within the ranges of Highs: 1.05190 Lows: 1.04375. We either re visits the higher high or we go to lower low areas of where are are. For now, we wait we are in a choppy condition its break to either levels. With US PPI tomorrow and then feds next week, I don't expect much movement compared to yesterday I will be on side-line until this is all confirmed and i'm looking for quick day trades in out as volume will start to dry up as its December. Don't forget to trade your own trade plan. Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
US Inflation Rate, YoY, Double Top? - Long-term ViewPresently, the inflation rate in the US has started falling, which increases expectations for a pivot - end of interest rate hikes. And factually, we can actually expect it. The supply of M2 Money Stock (M2SL) and its annual growth rate are decreasing. The global economy is shifting, as leading economic index (LEI) indicate. This will undoubtedly put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, after the current crisis, the economic recovery will cause a recurrence of inflation. So, if that is the case, the next decade will be marked by tight monetary policy and high inflation. This situation will let the central banks introduce a new monetary system based on CBDCs using incentives such as cheaper credit. Check also my related ideas. Enjoy
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by MichaelFX_ICT
XAUUSDHello traders. Gold is unstoppable. It has not retraced at all to any fibonacci levels or whatever. Last time it touched the demand area of 1618, it bought straightly up. Two consolidation boxes during this formation of uptrend. On 15 of August, close to 180x area, there was the starting point of the last bearish leg for gold. price violated 1680 area and created new key levels around 1616. Now, due to weak USD the price has been immensely increased. 1780 - 1790 area may give nice sell opportunities but I am more into the scenario of 1805 area. This seems to be more interesting in price action of recent months and this will be the key resistance level range. It is highly possible to open at highs and go for 1800 psychological point. However, patience is key and thing will get cleared on Tuesday's night and starting of Assian Session, when it may give reversal for gold. Keep at your watchlist DXY, US10 Years Yield Bonds as well 30 years Yield bonds. When these three start getting green and upcoming week fundamentas related to dollar give a breath to the currency, gold will drop.If they support dollar. Otherwise, this scenario is not valid anymore and we go for a break - retest of 1813 area and long continuation. Multiple ideas either for buys or for shorts. Others with good RRR other with poor. But still valid. Good luck!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by The_Forex_Path
Yen extends rally as Japan's PPI easesThe Japanese yen is taking a breather after posting huge gains on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.30, down 0.45%. The week wrapped up with a key inflation release. Japan's Producer Price Index slowed to 9.1% in October, down from 10.2% in September. Still, this was above the consensus of 8.8%. Consumer inflation is running around 3%, much lower than in other developed countries but high for Japan. The Bank of Japan has taken note of the rise in inflation but has said that it will not change its ultra-loose policy until it is convinced that inflation is not transient. The yen has fallen around 20% this year against the dollar but jumped on the bandwagon on Thursday after a soft US inflation report caused the dollar to plummet. Headline inflation dropped to 7.7%, down from 8.2% and core inflation dropped to 6.3%, down from 6.6%. Although inflation remains high, both indicators were lower than expected, which triggered a stampede as US stock markets soared and the US dollar was crushed. The soft inflation report has raised expectations that the Fed will ease up on the pace of tightening and will raise rates by "only" 50 basis points rather than 75 bp at the December meeting. According to Fed Watch, the markets had priced in a 50 basis point hike in December at 55% (45% for a 75 bp move) prior to the inflation release. This changed dramatically after the inflation release - currently, a 50 bp hike is priced in at 85%, with just 15% for a 75 bp move. Investors seem to be ignoring Fed Chair Powell's comment last week that the benchmark rate would peak at a higher level than previously expected, which could mean a terminal rate of 5.0% or even higher. The enthusiasm investors are showing could dampen if the upcoming employment and inflation reports point are stronger than expected. USD/JPY has support at 139.66 and 138.88 142.11 is the next resistance line
by OANDA
1
Why Good News Crashes Markets"But the news wasn't that bad, why is the market falling??" When news or economic data hits the wire, markets move. Many traders are left scratching their heads, trying to come up with an explanation for why the market tanks on good news or rallies on bad news. Don't waste your time. It turns out, news is usually just a catalyst that allows momentum traders to profit off of a position they've already established, or lays the groundwork for their next trade. As an example, take the overnight session preceding this morning's PPI print. First, size traders accumulated (bought) under VWAP. Then, they drove the price up around 12am, and proceeded to distribute (sell) for a profit above VWAP. Look at where the majority of volume was transacted, the VPOC. When this moves above VWAP, it tells you distribution may be done. What happens next? Size traders have made their money for the night, and no longer provide a bid. As soon as news or data comes out, they allow price to fall and may even sell into it. And the cycle starts over again, now at an even better (lower) price. Understanding this has helped me immensely; I sincerely hope it helps you too. Questions? Hit me up in the comments.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by gr8fultrading
2
AUD/USD falls to new 18-month lowAUD/USD continues to lose ground and can't find its footing. The Aussie started the week on the wrong foot, with a decline of 1.0% on Monday. In today's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6266 down 0.52%. Earlier the day, the Australian dollar fell to 0.6247, its lowest level since April 2020. Australia has posted weak numbers this week, adding to the downward pressure on the ailing Australian dollar. The Services PMI fell into contraction territory with a reading of 48.0 in September, down from 53.3 in August, as the uncertain economic outlook is weighing on business activity. Business confidence levels are down, with NAB business confidence slowing to 5 in September, down from 10 in August. Westpac Consumer Sentiment indicated that consumers are also in a sour mood, with a reading of -0.9% in September after a gain of 3.9% in August, which was the sole gain over the past 11 months. Risk appetite has been dampened by the escalating crisis in the Ukraine war, with Russia annexing parts of occupied Ukraine and firing missiles at civilian targets. As well, the energy crisis is looming over Western Europe, just weeks ahead of winter. This is weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. In the US, inflation releases have taken on added significance, as the Federal Reserve has designated soaring inflation as public enemy number one. The US releases PPI data on Wednesday and CPI a day later. Headline inflation has dropped over the past two months, but remains at 8.3%. Unless headline and core inflation both surprise with much lower readings than expected, I don't anticipate any change in course from the Fed. If inflation underperforms, the US dollar could lose ground. Conversely, a higher-than-expected inflation report would be bullish for the US dollar. AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6503 in the Asian session. The next resistance line is 0.6607 There is support at 0.6433 and 0.6329
by OANDA
Will GDP shake up GBP/USD?GBP/USD is trading quietly for a second straight day. In the North European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1035, down 0.18%. The pound has not posted a winning day since October 12th and has lost 400 points during that time. GBP/USD dropped below the symbolic 1.10 line earlier today, and a break below 1.10 will likely increase talk of the pound following the euro and dropping to parity with the dollar. The UK labour market is one of the few bright spots in the economy, and today's employment report reaffirmed that the job market remains tight. Unemployment in the three months to August dipped to 3.5%, down from 3.6%, while average earnings jumped to 6.0%, up from 5.5% and ahead of the consensus of 5.9%. These rosy numbers are dampened by an inflation rate of 9.9%, which has badly hurt real UK incomes. The strong job market bolsters the likelihood of the Bank of England will deliver some tough medicine at its November meeting, perhaps a super-size rate hike of 1.0%. The BoE was forced to intervene on an emergency basis after the mini-budget almost caused a bond market crash, and investors have circled October 14th, which is the expiry date of the BoE's gilt-buying intervention. There are concerns that if the BoE does not renew its bond-buying, the result could be another exodus from UK government bonds. On Wednesday, the UK releases GDP for August, which is expected at 0% MoM, down from 0.2% in July. In the US, inflation will be in focus this week, with PPI data on Wednesday and CPI a day later. Headline inflation is expected to fall to 8.1% in September, down from 8.3% in August, but core CPI is expected to rise to 6.5%, up from 6.3%. Unless inflation surprises sharply to the downside, the release will not cause the Fed to rethink its hawkish policy. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.1085 and 1.1214 There is resistance at 1.0935 and 1.0776
by OANDA
Nas100 Buy?Nas100 created a "W" pattern on the lower timeframe after a major sell off at the bell. PPI came out with a negative so the market sold after a 100 point move to the upside post news report drop. It reversed at the previous NY session low and bought up 142 points to the upside. Based off the previous PPI outcome, I am still holding for a 300 point move to the upside. Thank you for reading, always use proper risk management when trading! I personally never risk more than 1% per trading session.
FX:NAS100Long
by jefferytheartist
Cardano - Updated Charting 06/02 with Bottom Target Buying Zone Cardano enjoys a sweet dead cat bounce before moving further down finishing wave 5 (.30-.10) before moving upward towards ATH. Headwinds to take into consideration BEFORE investing in what they identify as risk on investments: Jamie Dimon's Hurricane Comment: www.cnbc.com (People should take not coming from Jamie, potential significant heads up) Latest ISM Report (May 2022) BULLISH FOWARD GROWTH: www.ismworld.org April Jobless Claims in at 200K (Extremely low) : www.cnbc.com Latest PPI Report (April) 11% www.bls.gov Latest CPI Report (April) 8.3% www.bls.gov DXY: Upward momentum since 07/2021 (Up 17.29% from 89.47 - 103.57 (Trending now around 101-102.xx) Ukraine War Crude Prices: Macrotrends Covid / Monkey Pox / Viral flavor of the month (Fear Tactics) Supply Chain Challenges Manufactured slowdowns of goods...for example China closing key manufacturing plants in an attempt to retain pricing power. Continued FALLING YEN! (Danger Zone) BTC.D Dominance! (46.78% Currently) Up from 39.26% in Jan 2022 Housing: Who would have EVER thought the CURE of the housing shortage was higher interest rates. By some sort of miracle, there's no longer a shortage! www.thetitlereport.com *** CAUTION *** There are significant CRACKS in housing, especially in those areas that enjoyed MASSIVE double-digit gains in most recent years. Looking for WALL ST corps to dump asset inventories as to not carry negative appreciative assets on their balance sheets. 1 out of 5 homes on the market currently has price reductions already. Look for significant additions of inventory VERY soon as even more people are priced out and corporate landlords like BlackRock will be looking to offset their portfolios not gain. The FED also looking to sell MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) instead of buying them, will force lenders to keep more mortgages on their balance sheets (They are already adjusting for tightening lending requirements. REFI markets with even higher interest rates are almost completely DEAD. Mortgage companies have already begun restructuring (layoffs) of many mortgage personnel. Looking for a 40-50% reduction in housing prices (Generally speaking, go back to 2016 / 2017 and add 5% to those sales prices and that will provide realistic guidance of where the housing prices will retrace to. ALL of the above is strictly entertainment and not financial advice. ;-) GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
COINBASE:ADAUSD
by Askatec
1
Inflation Selective Reporting & Narrative BLS published March PPI results this morning showing an increase of just over 11% year over year for $PPIFIS (Final Demand) or slightly more than 1.3% increase month over month. This leaves critical information out and paints a partial picture as $PPIACO (All Commodities) reflects a full 20.46% increase year over year and over a 2.8% increase in March over February. Shared monthly charts reflect trends for both $PPIACO and $PPIFIS with trend presenting projections of: PPIACO: +2.49% month over month, 21.8% year over year PPIFIS: +1.22% month over month, 11.45% year over year Price increases of all commodities, which is not reflected in the PPI narrative given the BLS news release, is an important factor to consider, especially when tracking against the market indices.
FRED:PPIFIS
by R0MM3LL
USDCAD - FUNDAMENTAS WITH TECHNICAL LEVELS- PPI DATA for USD is due out today. Reports and data on the CORE PPI, as well as the 10Y BOND AUCTION, will be released today. Also FOMC BRAINARD has a SPEAK today. - DXY currently stands at 100.32 LEVEL. USD has become STRONG in the last few days. After FOMC and LABOR DATA, USD received a slight POSITIVE SENTIMENT. Also, the CAD FEATURE is down to 0.7924 LEVEL. However, CAD is becoming WEAK relative to DXY due to being OIL DOWN. The USDCAD PRICE looks like it's moving towards DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. - Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is being POSITIVE. Until yesterday the MARKET RISK was OFF. STOCKS DOWN DOWN until yesterday. Also, the EQUITIES are turning somewhat GREEN but the VOLATILITY is going down. Also COMMODITIES still shows a UP SIDE BIAS. There is a NEUTRAL BIAS currently on the market. It's a bit more than the DOWN SIDE BIAS. We can not say for sure whether the MARKET SENTIMENT is UP or DOWN. But according to the data we have received so far we can say that MARKETS RISK is turning ON. - OIL PRICE is currently down a bit. It will inevitably affect CAD. But the TECHNICALLY USDCAD can go to the SELL a bit faster in the next few days because a RESISTANCE has a PRICE and is RISK ON. - USDCAD PRICE can be UP to 1.2685 LEVEL before DOWN. Then the USDCAD PRICE can be down again up to 1.2415 LEVEL. The USD may be slightly WEAK in the coming days due to the MARKET SENTIMENT. The OIL PRICE applies to USDCAD, and the decisions made at OPEC MEETING will have the greatest impact on USDCAD.
by benny_marshall
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- Today there are special indicators that affect GOLD. US PPI and CORE PPI DATA data to be released. GOLD will definitely be VOLATILE there. We must pay attention to the US10Y CHART. - US10Y currently stands at 2.76% LEVEL. Yesterday CPI DATA also made DXY UP at that moment. USD10Y LONG TERM UP is going to be up if this MARKET CONDITION is SUPPORT to USD. Also, when we look at the DXY, the DXY is up to 100.43 LEVEL. So GOLD has not been able to BUY much in recent days. - GOLD PRICE is available above DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be SHORT TEEM UP in the future. SHORT TERM is for UP SIDE. - Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is being POSITIVE. Until yesterday the MARKET RISK was OFF. STOCKS DOWN DOWN until yesterday. Also, the EQUITIES are turning somewhat GREEN but the VOLATILITY is going down. Also COMMODITIES still shows a UP SIDE BIAS. There is a NEUTRAL BIAS currently on the market. It's a bit more than the DOWN SIDE BIAS. We can not say for sure whether the MARKET SENTIMENT is UP or DOWN. But according to the data we have received so far we can say that MARKETS RISK is coming ON. - GOLD PRICE can be UP again before DOWN. So GOLD can definitely go back to 2000 LEVEL. Then you can definitely DOWN GOLD price up to 1817 LEVEL. - However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by benny_marshall
Rampant Inflation Impacting Producer Price IndexWall Street over the past few weeks appeared to be preparing for a more hawkish Federal Reserve approach to tamp down on sharply rising prices. The FOMC did raise rates by 25 bps, and the markets promptly responded by going higher. The markets' responses indicate the Fed completely lacks credibility in doing anything to get prices under control... instead the Central Banks have committed to stability and adopting a status quo approach in the near term. Rationale appears to be mid-term elections and a desire to not "upset" the markets given tremendous uncertainty. Instead of taking responsible action, it appears that inflation will continue drive higher, and a simple trend reflects PPI raising at least 4% as midterm elections draw closer. Short-term, markets will continue to behave bullish, inflation will continue to rise, and the depth of a total market correction will be deeper the longer this continues. Unfortunately, it's apparent that a regime change will be necessary at the Fed... likely resulting from rampant inflation and a landslide Republican win at the polls. High probability the GOP will have control of both chambers of Congress going into 2023.
FRED:PPIACOLong
by R0MM3LL
PPI/CPIWhile the Federal Reserve aims for - Full Employment... The Math in the preceding prior 2 commentaries, turns that Sillyness on its head. While Producers are simply just Beginning to pass to on Higher Costs (Reported by EVERY COMPANY during Q3 EPS)... With the Highest Rate of Change in HIstory for this Ratio... It's all good. ____________________________________________________ A very rapid drop in productivity despite jobless claims falling back to pre-pandemic levels... Again, refuted, dumped on its collective Fed Head. Total Hours worked continue imploding, not recovering. ____________________________________________________ Real Wages... can't come close to keeping up with Actual Inflation. Your Dollars Buy Less, Your Government Sponsored Enterprise aka The Bond Market is being destroyed Brick by perfidious Brick. It's Ok, no worries as long as the Hoi Polloi don't mind and the First Abusers continue to make 12.08% gains every month... all will be well. Just move along and Buy Stocks. ____________________________________________________ It is abundantly clear the Economy -what is left of it, aka the Equity Markets are guiding Monetary Policy. Fiscal Policy is a wet donut drowning in cold Java. The Kleptocrsts in DC are tossing salads and doing effectively - nothing. This is precisely what the Fed and is Handlers want, desire, and continue to assure. ____________________________________________________ There remains an inherent Risk of a continuation pattern IF this does not correct soon. The Equity Complex achieved a feat so completely remarkable anything is possible. NEVER in the history of the Markets have they produced an 18 Day streak with one actual Pullback, the 2nd doesn't remotely count, it was a few points. ____________________________________________________ IN the face of: Macro-Economic Data plummeting to the downside Supply Chain's parked offshore rotting, Shut-Ins, Shut-Downs Inventories dissolving Valuations at ALL-TIME HIGHS Yields backing off due to DC's Instructed Twaddling ____________________________________________________ The Stock Market is the Economy, it is now well below JUNK paper. And yet it has the potential to continue the surreal rise in the face of massively deteriorating Global Economic conditions... ____________________________________________________ The Alternate - Never a down Day. We will see. - HK
FRED:PPIFIS
by HK_L61
3
DXY AnalysisTo examine the dollar index with the symbol DXY, we first go to the fundamental. Perhaps the most important data this week is the fundamental Unemployment Claims and then the Flash PMI. According to a previous chart review, whenever a lower Unemployment Claims is released, a long ascending candlestick is created in the 5-minute timeframe, and whenever it has a higher rate, a higher descending candlestick is created. Flash PMI data has had less of an impact on the market than Unemployment Claims unless it is accompanied by other economic data. Last week, most of the news about the dollar was negative or neutral. Like the PPI, which was lower than expected and caused it to fall from the range of 94.3 to the range of 93.8. I think this week the decline will continue to 93.4 or 93.2. Especially when a triangle pattern is formed. Also, the downward movement can continue to create a Higher Low compared to the previous valley. In the range of 93.6 we have this high chart that the price can react to that range. 93.23 and 92.97 can also be important ranges. On the other hand, we have a resistance above the price, which is area 94, and if it fails, the next resistance is 94.5. In lower time frames, more support and resistance levels are seen. For example, the lower side of triangle 93.8 to which the price can react. Or even the ceiling of a triangle pattern that is close to the resistance of 94.1
TVC:DXYShort
by mohamadrezaKhorsand
Pound pushes above 1.38, GDP nextThe British pound has punched above the 1.38 level in the Thursday session. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3858, up 0.63% on the day. After posting three straight days of losses, the British pound has rebounded strongly on Thursday. The US dollar is in retreat against the majors, despite a positive unemployment claims release earlier in the day. Claims fell to 310 thousand, down from 345 thousand a week earlier. We'll get another look at US inflation data on Friday, with the release of PPI for August expected to indicate that inflation remains red-hot. The consensus stands at 6.5% (YoY) compared to 6.2% in July. The Federal Reserve continues to insist that the surge in inflation is transitory and has been reluctant to respond with a tightening of policy, fearing that the time is not ripe for a scaling back of QE. Still, more investors are sure to join the skeptics if inflation continues to remain at high levels in the final months of 2021. In the UK, the markets will be treated to a data dump on Friday. The key events are GDP and Manufacturing Production. With the Delta variant of Covid continuing to hurt economic growth, July GDP is expected somewhere around zero, which could mean a small decline. Manufacturing Production is also expected to be sluggish with a forecast of 0.1% (MoM). We could see some strong movement from the pound, depending on the performance of these two releases. There is resistance at 1.3924. Above, there is resistance at 1.3988, just below the symbolic line of 1.40. On the downside, we have support at 1.3763 and 1.3666
by OANDA