Seasonal Long in PlatinumHey guys, there is an annual seasonal setup in Platinum which begins during the middle of December and extends until February/Early-March timeframe. The meat of the move seems to occur from end-December until mid/end-January though. While last years movement was fairly muted due to the weak capital markets, I am aiming for a $150/oz upside move this year. TP range is $1100-$1125 area. I scale into small longs vs. taking a single large position as the ranges in Platinum, can be quite large. You can also refer to this link for more info on the seasonal setup as well:
auctusmetals.com
PPLT
710 possible for a week or two. 850 is the range likely for a few weeks with a pulse to 800 range.
Then the price could fall to a cost of production for a few months...maybe even a pulse below that for a few weeks.
Might even stay there long enough to get some physical at decade lows.
Then again who wants dollars? I guess 2.8% interest for a 10y bond with prospects for 7% inflation looks good to some people.
Maples, eagles or plate? what will there be? trading PPLT as a hedge to lock in a price.
$PLATINUM holding key 200wma200 week moving average is providing quite some level of support on platinum. Feels like the metal is building steam for another move higher? While price continuously traded below the declining 200wma in years before, for the first time in years we are seeing price hold up above this important average, while also seeing the 200wma pointing north which is encouraging. The RSI has also made higher lows since bottoming out during the Covid crash and showing us signs that the momentum is still holding up
Platinum Fell From Price Channel After a tightening price range in the uptrend channel, platinum prices have fallen below the price channel flipping the trendline from support to resistance. Next line of support is around 1100. If inflation fears ease, or if stocks take off and crypto continues it's selloff, more money will flow into those markets and I think there may be further downward pressure in platinum. That's my very uneducated opinion. Not financial advice. Be safe and happy trading!
Palladium Update: Possible upswing soon. On the previous post on 8/4/20 I also suggested an upswing soon as the ".4" point was approaching.(see link below). But after the rise there has been a stall which may be soon over. So watch for signs of reversal. If this count is correct the next upswing could be a hefty one.
I don't trade futures. Other possibilities to trade this include PPLT, and mining stock IMPUY
Zacks
Impala Platinum Holdings Limited is in the business of mining, refining and the marketing of platinum group metals, especially platinum, as well as nickel, copper and cobalt. Implats is also involved in the secondary sourcing of material through Impala Refining Services which enables it to capitalise on the group's competitive advantages in processing and refining. The group's operations on the Bushveld Complex in South Africa (Impala Platinum, Marula Platinum, the Leeuwkop project and Two Rivers) and the Great Dyke in Zimbabwe (Zimplats and Mimosa) give it a significant base of attributable reserve and resource ounces of platinum. Implats also has investments in Aquarius Platinum Limited and its subsidiary Aquarius Platinum (South Africa) Limited which have PGM operations in southern Africa. There are also offshore exploration projects in Botswana, Mozambique, Madagascar and Canada.
Platinum Top on the Way..Commercial producers in Platinum have been heavy sellers in the NYMEX contract lately. This action typically bodes poorly for Platinum prices shortly thereafter. Once the commercials get down to -50k contracts, this can be a good signal to short. Using this weeks "Eskom Power Shortage" news to open a new short position on the NYMEX PL contract.
In times passed, any news relating to a South African miner's strike or a Eskom Power issue typically results in a 2-3 day price jump which is short lived as the producers come in to sell it back down. Will add additional contracts every $10 higher. Profit target is when the commercials have covered contracts (or have delivered metal) back into the -20k range which likely means the $780 to $800 range.
Platinum 2 Week ForecastWish I had published this sooner, as I absolutely nailed today’s massive price action.
I’m entering a partial position to hedge against the possibility that we don’t revisit the 790’s and low 800’s. If we do though I will buy a lot more.
Without a pullback its a 6% profit, with the pullback its 9%. Decent little trade.
Seasonal Bearishness for Platinum Begins..Number of factors set to influence Platinum for the month of March:
- Double Top Resistance at $880
- RSI tag of +70 on the daily chart, momentum exhaustion
- Seasonal Bearishness starts end-Feb/early-March and completes until end-March/early-April
- Expiration of NYMEX April Futures Contracts, expected producer selling up until first notice day
- Continued excess supply concerns, secular low-prices, backlash on diesel emissions.
Short from $860, Take profit $770
This is the flip trend directly as the shiny palladium get readyTake a look at this chart showing how the safe-haven metal platinum has been underperforming and is now at major support.
I expect money to flow out of the leader palladium and into platinum over the next few months.
See Palladium chart:
Long-term Platinum AnalysisThe chart shows that the price of platinum is at a very low level, according to the COT report analysis, it shows that compared to the previous publication, the number of open sales positions increased, but it is much smaller activity of sellers than in previous reports. This may mean that the downward trend is coming to an end. An additional factor to buy can be the fact that the price is at an important level of support. This in combination with COT reports is a good basis to buy.
Warning
This is a long-term forecast, it does not mean that the increase will take place immediately.
In the case of long-term investment, I encourage you to use ETFs, for example PPLT.US (ETFS Physical Platinum Shares)
New Bull Starting in Platinum?A few interesting points about XPTUSD and why it might be time to look at long positions:
1. 7-Year cycle in XPTUSD is bottoming out right now.
2. We are seeing a backtest of the initial breakout similar to what happened in 2000-2001
3. XPTUSD production is going to see major cutbacks moving forward from South Africa
4. Above ground stocks are winding down which has put extreme pressure on prices for the last 4 years
5. Should the DYX fail to breakout decisively over 102 before the end of 2016, then the ZARUSD could strengthen.
$PPLT Nears Cycle Completion At Geo's 5' | #platinum $XPT $XAUFriends,
A quick synopsis on this metal, coming to a cycle completion of the Geo:
1 - Price hit Predictive/Forecasting Model's qualitative target, defined at 98.27 on June 22nd;
2 - A "Warning Level" at this institutional weekly level may offer solid support and ground for reversal, here defined at 91.98;
3 - A large geometry defined by the "Geo" meets the following conditions:
a -- 1-2 Leg integrates a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry
b -- 2-3 Leg completes a complex Elliott Wave zig-zag (here, a IMP-COR-IMP is drawn in)
c -- 3-4 Leg completes a simpler Elliott Wave zig-zag ("ZZ") than 2-3 Leg
d - 4-5 Leg completes a simplest ZZ
e -- A permissive Tunneling lets a 1-4 Line through the geometry
f -- Transposition of 2-4 Line offers a point of repose for Point-5-prime (5')
If and once a reversal occurs in the 91.98 ("Watch Level") vicinity, look for a possible reversal to a price level corresponding to Point-4, as per Geo's Off-Set Rule.
OVERALL:
Confluence of Predictive/Forecasting Model's target at 91.98 and Geo's 5' is likely to impact price. Whether of not this should suffice to reverse price will have to be appreciated over an unusually longer period. However, Forex traders might want to keep this metal in mind, as we are also looking at $XAU and gold-sensitive sovereign currencies, such as $AUD, $CAD and $CHF, and to some lesser extent $NZD.
In other words, a rallying in $XPTUSD may be occurring at these defined levels, heralding a possible reversal in the class of precious metals - See recent target hit on $XPTUSD:
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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David Alcindor
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