BTCUSD: A Bearish Deep Gartley Has Staged BTC to Return to $6065This is a followup to the previous Bearish ABCD trade; BTC has officially with PPO Confirmation, has reversed from the PCZ of the Bearish ABCD to which I later realized the ABCD was part of a much greater Bearish Deep Gartley, and now we are below the 200-Day and 200-Week SMAs along with that we have broken below the demand line of an apparent Rising Wedge Pattern all at a 23.6% Fibonacci retrace which is a very shallow and weak retrace to have this all occur, but that only means the move back down will likely be much deeper and stronger.
We can consider what we initially got at the 0.786 PCZ of this Cypher as a Type 1 Reaction, but now it appears that price has been preparing itself to make a Type 2 Return, that will most likely take us to the Cypher HOP levels this time around which would land us at around $6000 once we hit that zone I will look for signs of Bullish PPO Confirmation before then anticipating a V-shaped recovery that should take us to new all-time highs.
There of course is a scenario in which instead of making a lower low to the HOP we just bounce back up again at around 16k and that was where my previous projection took it but upon taking in more of the weekly data I have concluded that 6-4k is more likely especially if we start getting super fast movement down week after week but if it is instead a more calm decline that gives us a clean double bottom with some PPO confirmation around 16k instead then I will jump in early; until then I see 6-4k as the most likely target.
For reference, I have included the link to the original Bearish ABCD chart and projection below as we may swap back to the original projection depending on the price action we get leading to both the original 16-12k Target and the new and current 6-4k target:
Ppo
McDonald's Corp: Bearish Deep Crab with Double PPO ConfirmationWe have a Bearish Deep Crab with a PPO Confirmation Arrow and a Circle with MACD Bearish Divergence and have broken below the faster moving EMAs. I would next expect this to make at least a 61.8% Retrace, which would take it back to about $185.
This makes the third major Dow 30 Stock that has signalled something ultra bearish like this; the other two being UNH and MSFT, which can be seen below:
We are likely looking at a major correction coming to the Dow Jones Industrial Average very soon.
LLY: The NVDA of Pharmaceuticals Showing Signs of Future DeclineIf we close the day as we are now, we will have confirmed a 3 Line Strike, a Bearish PPO Arrow, and a break below the 5 EMA on the Daily Timeframe just above the 3.618 Fibonacci Extension. From there I would expect LLY to first Fill the gap at $451.50 and beyond that I think it will revisit the 200-day SMA around $350 and maybe even the 800-day EMA at around $285.
Reasons to Aim Even Lower Than Before on the NASDAQ-100So you have this Local Double Harmonic setup with PPO Confirmation on the QQQ that is aiming for a 20-40% pull back which can be seen here:
In addition to the setup above, you also have this longer term Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern that goes all the way back to the beginning of 2016 and If the local Harmonic Plays out, we will likely hit the bottom Demand Line before ever having tested the Upper Supply Line and that would then confirm a Partial Rise which would give us a heightened 74% chance of breaking down below the wedge. Upon breaking below the wedge our typical price target for a wedge like this would be a 100% retrace of the pattern which in this case takes us back to 2016 levels at around $3,800
Bank of America is Shaping Up to Be Just Like PacWestWhen comparing the price action between BAC and PACW, it can be seen that both stocks exhibit the same price action, which is a Rising and Broadening Structure leading into the PCZ of a Bearish Alt-Bat, which all eventually came to a halt upon getting Bearish PPO Confirmation. This led to a breaking of the 21-Month SMA before ultimately flushing down to all-time lows after months of treating the 21-Month SMA levels as resistance.
The same price action can be seen on Bank of America; it is just 1 step behind PACW at this point in time, which is the flipping of the 21-SMA into resistance. The next step would be for it to crash below the 2009 lows.
NVDA: Monthly Bearish ABCD Signal Pending Lowering Target to $80Last month I posted a setup that made the argument that NVDA was trading within the Pattern Completion Zone of a Bearish ABCD visible on the Monthly Timeframe and that all I was looking for was a Monthly PPO Confirmation Signal which would likely be triggered by a Bearish Negative Monthly Candle within the Zone; this situation remains the same we are still trading within the zone even after the earnings pop, but we simply haven't had that negative month yet, however it does seem like it will soon give me the signal that I want and it's something to pay attention to, at this point I'd say it'd be ok to put on a midsized bearish entry via 1-3 month NVDA Puts around the $480-$500 strike or NVDS Calls at the $36 strike and upon generating the bearish negative signal candle it will be appropriate to put on the full bearish entry.
In addition, after the recent Price Action and Earnings, if we do get the signals we want here, NVDA will probably drop back down to around $80
The original setup can be found below:
CAH: Bearish Crab with PPO Confirmation on the WeeklyCardinal Health has traded up to a Macro Supply Line which happened to align with the BAMM Target of a Bearish Crab and from there we formed MACD Bearish Divergence and got the strongest form of PPO Confirmation, as a result I now expect that we will begin a very deep retracement back down similarly to how Strongly CVS has responded to its own topping pattern which can be seen in the Idea Below:
NZDCAD: 4HR Double Bullish Harmonic with PPO ConfirmationWe have 4HR PPO confirmation at a Previous Support Level that aligns with the HOP levels of a Bullish Gartley and Bullish Crab pattern. If we get the expected performance, the NZD will hit 0.85 CAD, but could go as high as 0.89 CAD which would be the 1.618 Extension.
HSBC: MACD Bearish Divergence with PPO Confirmation at Bat PCZWe have the strongest form of Double PPO Confirmation on the Daily and a weaker form on the Weekly, all at the PCZ of a Bearish Bat; if it performs it will very likely begin a severe decline of up to 62%+ especially due to how much exposure it has to chinese Real Estate.
BONEUSD: Bearish Shark with Bearish PPO ConfirmationWe have Double Confirmation on the PPO that this Bearish Shark Harmonic is active and along with that we have some Bearish Divergence on the MACD and PPO as the RSI Moves down below the 50 Line in an impulsive manner. This could lead to BONE going down 50-90% especially as Shibarium Disappoints.
USDPLN: Hidden Bullish Divergence at Channel Demand LineUSDPLN on the Higher timeframes has generated some PPO arrows and Hidden Bullish Divergence at the Demand line of an Upwards Slopping Channel, which also happens to align with the 200 SMA. If it can hang on from here, I think it will make a run back up towards the top of the channel.
AMZN: Bearish Bat: Anticpating Potential PPO ConfirmationAmazon has gapped up to complete an 88.6% retrace thus completing the BAMM. Now we can see that the PPO is trading outside the upper bounds, and once the PPO comes back down below the upper bounds, it will confirm a Bearish PPO signal at the PCZ of this Bearish Bat, therefore confirming the Bearish Entry. I think it will target $81 from there on, but it could go lower if it ends up being a continuation of a much more bearish ABCD Pattern from years ago.
I think this rally was stirred on by the positive earnings release, but failed to realize how unprepared the guidance was during the actual call, as they hardly provided any guidance for Q3 all they could provide was their hopes but not much beyond that.
SMG Falling Wedge BreakoutThe largest player in cannabis without having the risk/exposure to the schedule 1 plants and cutthroat competition in the sector, SMG, has broken out of a falling wedge pattern with lower PPO and TDI indicators that are close to turning bullish.
All eyes/ears are on the Senate as a vote on Safe Banking for the cannabis sector is expected this month.
businessofcannabis.com
If approved this would clear a major hurdle for the cannabis industry for both long-term growth and the path toward federal legalization.
Currently long with an entry price of of $64.34, a stop-loss at $60 and a take profit at $80. Stop-loss and take profit levels will remain adaptive to price movement.
Gold Triple TopAnalyzing the monthly price chart, a significant pattern emerges - the Triple Top formation from 2020 till now. The Price Percentage Oscillator (PPO) and Traders' Dynamic Index (TDI) indicators further shed light on the situation. Here's my take on short-term and long-term price analysis and projection.
The Triple Top pattern indicates three consecutive peaks at roughly the same price level, suggesting strong resistance. This suggests caution as it may signal a potential reversal or consolidation phase for Gold. The triple top pattern is a bearish reversal pattern that occurs when prices reach a high three times in a row, each time at a slightly lower level. This pattern suggests that the uptrend is losing momentum and that prices may be due for a correction.
Looking at the PPO indicator, it shows a bearish divergence with the price, indicating weakening momentum. This supports the notion of a possible pullback or correction in the short term.
The TDI indicator highlights a potential shift in market sentiment. The green RSI line has been in decline as price remained elevated and could imply a downtrend is forming.
In the short term, given the Triple Top pattern and the bearish signals from PPO and TDI, Gold may experience a downward correction or consolidation phase. Support levels to watch include $1,700 and $1,600.
In the long term, caution is warranted. If the Triple Top is confirmed, it may trigger a more significant trend reversal. Key support levels to monitor are $1,500 and $1,400, while resistance remains near $2,000. The short-term technical analysis suggests that gold prices may be due for a correction in the near future. However, the long-term technical analysis suggests that gold prices are still bullish and are expected to continue to rise in the years to come. Investors should consider taking profits in the short term and waiting for a better entry point in the long term.
Please note that this analysis is based on technical factors and historical patterns, and it's essential to consider other factors and conduct further research before making investment decisions. Stay informed and adapt to changing market dynamics.
Bitcoin Declining Inside Downtrend ChannelI'd call it a bad day for Bitcoin, but when compared to the altcoins today Bitcoin is doing well. I suspect that traders are dumping their shitcoins across multiple exchanges as the SEC lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance have traders worried that their cryptos will be delisted, and/or that they might not be able to get their shitcoins or cash off of the exchanges.
Technically, Bitcoin was already declining inside of a downtrend channel while failing to hold above the 8,21,34, 50 and 100ma's before the SEC threw out the lawsuits, and price is now trading below all of the ma's-minus the 200ma-with the ma's rolling over. Price was prime for a continued decline prior to the SEC lawsuits, and now the fear associated with those lawsuits is manifesting in the form of freefall price declines across the crypto space.
Both the PPO and TDI on the Bitcoin chart are showing that there is negative trend and momentum behind price. The PPO is trending just below the 0 level with plenty of room to fall further. The TDI shows the RSI line trending between the 20-60 levels which indicates that the overall trend behind price is negative. Short-term price target is the 200ma and lower channel line around FWB:23K , but a re-test of $20k is most likely.
This isn't a knife that I'd attempt to catch for those looking for steeply discounted cryptos to add to their portfolio. Good chance that quite a few of these cryptos/tokens are going to $0.00 which is something that this space has needed for a long time due to rampant fraud and illegal activity committed by teams behind some of these projects. But, if you are the gambling type, I'd stick with Bitcoin for dip-buying as that is the one crypto that SEC chairman Gary Gensler has stated in the past is "safe" because it is a commodity.
www.benzinga.com
As of 3 weeks ago I no longer have money in crypto or on any crypto exchanges, and I stopped using exchanges other than Coinbase years ago because I thought they were the only safe one since they are regulated. Originally was waiting for BTC to fall back down to $20k to buy back in, but am now actively shorting BTC via the BITI ETF with no plans of transferring money back on to Coinbase. Too much risk right now with the SEC slapping suits left and right while claiming most of these assets are securities.
All That Glitters Is GoldNot much to dislike about gold right now from a technical point of view. Price just set a new all-time monthly closing high last month at $1986/oz and looks determined to test the all-time high at $2089/oz. Price is trending above all of the short and long averages and all averages are also trending higher which indicates a bullish trend behind price. The lower PPO indicator has also crossed bullish with the green signal line back above the purple base line which indicates short-term bullish price momentum. Both lines holding and trending above the horizontal 0 level indicate that the overall or long-term momentum behind price is also bullish.
All signs point to more gains for gold in 2023.
Bitcoin Tops 200-wk AverageBitcoin has broken above the 200-wk price average near $25k and is now testing $28k. The current price candle is yellow indicating extreme bullish trend behind price.
The lower momentum indicator is still flipping bullish with green signal line rising above the 0 level, still waiting for the purple base line to rise above the 0 level for increased bullish trend signal.
The lower trend indicator show the green RSI line breaking out of its tight trading range between the 50-60 level, and is now above 60 and rising which indicates a healthy bullish trend behind price.
Overall, Bitcoin is still looking good for continued gains, and on a weekly basis, hasn't looked this strong since traders were taking price up to $70k during the Covid bubble.
Current resistance level to watch now is the $28-$30k range, and the current support to watch for on any pullback is the $25k level. $25k was previous resistance and in technical analysis that means it should now become a support level.
Today is Friday so I bought again this morning. Filled at $26.6k and new cost average is now $19.7k.
Bitcoin 200wk avg Resistance at $25k-ish$25k has been the hard top in Bitcoin recently, with a nice floor being put in at $20k.
$20k price support stems from the high set during the crypto bubble in 2017/18 and has historical value. $25k price resistance is coming in the form of the 200-wk average, an average that Bitcoin has never closed below let alone trended below before in the chartable price history going back to 2011. Price being below the 200wk average is also historically significant.
The lower indicators are trying to turn bullish:
-The PPO is close to a bullish cross above the 0 level, just waiting on the purple base line to join the green signal line above 0.
-The TDI is showing the green RSI line in a tight range between the 50-60 level, just keeps bouncing off each one these past few weeks. A move above 60 would be bullish and what we want to see as more
bullish price confirmation.
$20k is the support level to watch in price, a failure to hold there would likely mean a re-test of $15.5k.
$25k is the resistance level to watch in price, a successful breach above there would likely mean a test of $30k next.
No trading for me, just stacking Bitcoin weekly since September when price first fell back down to $20k. I will continue to buy weekly as long as I can keep my cost average below $30k.
Bitcoin resistance at 200-week price average. Bitcoin has been hitting resistance at 200-week price average($25k) for the past few weeks as the lower indicators test thin lines between remaining bearish or breaking bullish. PPO has both lines below the 0 level which indicate overall bearish price momentum, while the TDI shows the RSI line creating a potential double-top at the 60 level. In general, the RSI will trend between 20-60 during a bear market, and 40-80 during a bull market. I personally would like to see Bitcoin turn around here and head lower for a longer bear market of at least a year. My current average is below $20k and I would like to add more below $20k.
Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish, long-term bullish. FTX drama likely gave us a bottom near $15k, but it would be nice to see a re-test to confirm that $15k is the actual bottom.
S&P500 BreakoutThe S&P 500 has ended nearly two-month losing streak with a +6% gain this week, 4.5% of which came on Thursday and Friday alone which is a good sign going into a long holiday weekend. It means that traders are comfortable buying at current prices and are expecting the uptrend to continue next week.
As for the technicals, the SP500 has broken above a downtrend line(red) which acted as hard price resistance for all of May and the breakout this week is a sign that stocks are attempting a price reversal. Price also broke above a local high(dashed yellow) made back on May 18th which was the last time price was rejected at the red downtrend line prior to this weeks breakout. Price also crossed and closed above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level today which is another indication that price is attempting to turn bullish. When price is trading between the 0-38.2% fib levels(purple) the overall price trend is considered bearish. When price is trading between the 61.8-100% fib levels the overall price trend is considered bullish.
The lower indicators are showing short-term bullish momentum to confirm the bullish price action seen this week. The PPO indicator shows the green PPO line above the purple signal line, and both lines rising, which short-term bullish momentum behind price. Both lines are below the 0 level though which indicates that the intermediate to long-term price momentum remains bearish.
The TDI indicator shows the green RSI line rising and above the 50 level. Above the 50 level is bullish, but for sustainable bullish momentum a reading above 60 is preferred. The green RSI line is also above the upper of the 3 purple Bollinger Bands which indicates bullish volatility, and in general you want to hold as long as the RSI line is above the upper Bollinger Band. Short-term the TDI is reading bullish momentum behind price, but the intermediate to long-term momentum won’t shift until the center Bollinger Band is above 50, it currently is at 40.
Overall the short-term trend reversal in the SP500 this week looks good and I’m anticipating a move higher next week. The main level I'll be watching is the 50% fib at $4219, a move above there would indicate that this reversal has legs.