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S&P500 Below 100-Week AverageThe S&P 500 crossed below the 100-week price average at $3,995 today which is the first cross below the 100-week average since May 11th, 2020. The 100-week average acted as temporary support last week, but buyers were unable to hold that level on the first day of trading this week. In the last S&P 500 update shared back on March 6th price was trading near $4,260, rallied for two weeks afterward to near $4,600, stalled out, and has now fallen roughly -6% from the March 6th update price level to $3,995 today. Much like when price failed to hold above the 50-week average and a move to the 100-week was anticipated back on March 6th, now that price is crossing below the 100-week average rather than holding above it we can anticipate a potential move down to test the 200-week price average near $3,500 which is roughly -13% lower than todays close at $3,995. The PPO indicator is showing bearish price momentum with the green PPO line trending below the purple signal line, with both lines trending down and below the horizontal 0 level. As long as both lines are trending below the 0 level the short-term momentum for the SP500 will remain bearish. The ADX indicator shows the purple DI line rising and above the green DI line which indicates a short-term bearish trend behind price. The purple histogram behind the DI lines is rising which indicates increasing strength in the bearish trend behind price. The TDI indicator shows the green RSI line trending below the 40 level, currently at 32, which indicates bearish momentum behind price. The green RSI line is also crossing below the lower, purple Bollinger Band which indicates bearish momentum volatility behind price. Overall, the S&P 500 remains bearish with price crossing below the 100-week average and lower indicators all reading bearish trend and momentum behind price. Main thing to watch for now is whether or not this week closes below the 100-week average or $4,000 level, both are technical and psychological levels of interest. The last two times price closed below the 100-week average were in December 2018 and March 2020, both of which saw eventual moves in price down to test the 200-week average as is anticipated after todays dip below the 100-week average. -2018 saw a -21% decline from peak to bottom. -2020 saw a -36% decline from peak to bottom. -Price is currently -17% below the 2021 peak near $4,800.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by PrepForProfit
Bitcoin Testing 100wk AverageAfter making a run toward $50k in late March, Bitcoin has fallen back below $40k and is once again testing the 100-week price average for support near $37k. Should the 100-week average fail to act as price support there is secondary support in the $30-34k range as well which stems from lows seen back in mid-2021. If bulls are unable to hold price above the $30k level then a potential re-test of the 200-week average will be in play which currently rests near the $20k level and was the price peak seen during the 2017 crypto bubble. After Bitcoin broke finally broke above the $20k level 3 years in December 2020 there was never a re-test of that $20k level for support, price just kept moving higher to $70k in early 2021 and then saw a re-test of $70k in late 2021. By late 2021 price fell back below $50k and hasn’t been able to regain that level ever since which in itself is a bearish sign. The lower price indicators all show bearish trend and momentum behind price, with the TDI showing tightening Bollinger Bands indicating that a potential spike in volatility may be ahead. Current price trend indicates that a spike in volatility will be bearish/downside volatility. Overall view on Bitcoin and crypto in general remains bearish in the short to intermediate-term with a likely test of $20k sometime this year for Bitcoin.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by PrepForProfit
SP500 Heading Down to 100-Week AverageThe SP500 is in a downtrend on a weekly basis as price continues to trend below the 50-week price average. Almost every time that the 50-week average fails to act as support, price falls to the 100-week average which currently rests near $3920, or roughly -8% lower than current price at $4260. Should that fail, the 200-week average would be the next area to look for potential support which is -20% from current price. All lower indicators are pointing toward more downside as all are indicating bearish trend and momentum behind price. I've been short the major averages since January when I sold all of my stocks other than gold/silver, uranium and steel related holdings. No plans to sell my shorts or commodities as long as the SP500 is looking like this bearish. I feel that the geopolitical risk of Russia invading Ukraine has not been totally priced into markets, especially with the US now seizing assets of Russian oligarchs, shutting them off from the US Dollar, and talk of halting oil imports from Russia. Desperate countries do desperate things when pushed into a corner, and Russia is most certainly in a corner with no plans to back down. Good luck out there traders.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by PrepForProfit
Gold Loves Geopolitical RiskPutin sent "peace-keeping" troops into Ukraine today after declaring Donetsk and Lugansk as independent. Watching for a move in gold above $1917 for the precious metal party to really get going on the heels of geopolitical risk. We also still have record inflation and monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve planned to start in March which could lead to risk-off in markets and should bode well for gold as investors seek safety. Price trend and lower indicators for gold are all pointing to higher prices from here. Stay long, stay strong and keep stacking gold and silver.
TVC:GOLDLong
by PrepForProfit
SHIBUSD 50sma ResistanceShiba Inu has failed to move above the 50sma after finding resistance at that level for the past week. Price risks falling back into the downtrend channel with a possible re-test of local lows near $0.00002826 which is roughly -18% from the current price of $0.00003560. Lower indicators are all showing bearish trend and momentum behind price in the short and intermediate-term. Should Bitcoin continue to show weakness, expect the rest of the altcoin market to follow suit.
FTX:SHIBUSDShort
by PrepForProfit
1
SPY Bearish Divergences w/ Potential Triple Top$SPY S&P500 ETF. SPY is currently hesitating near all-time highs which has led to a potential bearish triple top formation(upper red arrows) on the daily chart. As price has stayed relatively the same since early November, the lower indicators have all been declining(lower red arrows) which has created a bearish divergence. The lower indicators all show that the internals behind the recent rally in price from October to November have weakened, but have not flipped bearish yet. The PPO indicator shows the green PPO line trending below the purple signal line. This indicates a short-term loss of upward momentum in price. This indicator isn’t considered bearish until both the green and purple lines are below the 0 level. What we would need to see going forward in order for price to continue moving higher is for the green line to cross back above the purple and for both to continue moving higher. The ADX indicator shows the green DI and purple DI lines overlapping which means that the short-term trend in price has flatlined. When the green line is above the purple line the short-term trend in price is up, and when the purple line is above the green line the short-term trend is down. The histogram behind the DI lines is declining which indicates weakening trend strength. What we want to see here is for the green DI line to cross back above the purple DI line, and then for the histogram to begin rising which would indicate a short-term bull trend with increasing strength. The TDI indicator shows the green RSI line rolling over after finding resistance at the horizontal 60 level and the middle of the RSI Bollinger Bands. The intermediate momentum behind price can be considered bullish based on the fact that the RSI is above the horizontal 50 level and so is the center of the BBands. When both are below the 50 level the short and intermediate momentum in price can be considered bearish. What we want to see in this indicator is for the green RSI line to cross above the center of the BBands and then rise above the 60 level to give us a strong indication that the short-term and intermediate-term momentum behind price is bullish. Worth noting is that as price rose this week, volume declined. This indicates that less traders were in the market moving price back up to test the all-time high near $470 after the previous double top. Should price continue to hesitate and rollover over from here, local lows can be looked at for potential levels of support. The two most recent local lows to watch are at $450 and $425, those were the last two levels of demand prior to new all-time highs being made. If the market is still mostly bullish, those two levels will hold, with $425 being the critical level. #sp500 #spy #spx #stocks #equities #trading #investing #chart #analysis #technical #indicators #candlestickchart #pricepercentoscillator #ppo #averagedirectionalindex #adx #tdi #tradersdynamicindex #rsi #relativestrengthindex #trend #momentum #tradingview #price #etf #divergence #bearish #bearishdivergence
AMEX:SPY
by PrepForProfit
Bitcoin 1/hr Fib ConsolidationBitcoin 1/hr chart shows price trending between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels in a tight $1,800 range. The fib levels are drawn from the recent peak at $57,670(100%) and $42,333(0%). What we’re looking for here is a price move above the 61.8% fib level at $51,811 if we want to see continue gains. Should price fail to hold support at the 50% fib level at $50,000, then we can start to look at possible points of support at the 38.2%, 23.6% and 0% fib levels. Price would technically still be in an uptrend, albeit under a period of consolidation, as long as the $40k level isn’t breached. Should price fall below $40k the trend would flip from a period of consolidation to a new bear trend. Lower indicators are looking favorable for bulls as they stand. The PPO indicator is showing both the green PPO line and purple signal line above the 0 level. In order for the uptrend in price to continue we need to see the green line cross back above the purple line and for both lines to move higher. That would indicate healthy bullish momentum behind price. The ADX indicator shows the purple DI line above the green DI line which indicates a bearish trend behind price. The lines appear to be on the verge of another crossover though which would put the green line back above the purple line and indicate that there is a positive trend behind price. The TDI indicator shows the green RSI line trending in the lower half of the purple BBands which indicates a negative trend for price in the short-term. The RSI line also recently attempted to cross above the 50 level, but rolled back over. Bitcoin needs to see an RSI reading above 50, and preferably 60, in order for momentum to be considered bullish. Overall, neutral on price until the more risk-tolerant traders move it one direction or another. Above the 61.8% fib at $52k and bulls will be in charge, below the 50% fib at $50k and bears will have the upper hand on price movement.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by PrepForProfit
8
Bitcoin Holding 50% Fib Level After a large drop over the weekend Bitcoin is holding above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level which is drawn from the July 20 low near $29,500(100% Fib) to the Nov 10 high at $69,000(0% Fib). This level is acting as decent support for now, but we have yet to see any eager buyers of size step in and push price back up into the blue uptrend channel, and above the 38% Fib level which is where price needs to be if we want to see the uptrend in Bitcoin continue-and by proxy the rest of the cryptosphere. For now the lower blue line of the uptrend channel and 39.2% Fib level can be considered overhead resistance levels for price in the short-term. Should bulls be unable to push price higher from here and the 50% Fib level fails as support, we’re looking at a potential move back down near the yellow 61.8% Fib level to re-test the weekend lows. Just below there I’ve drawn a teal line near $40,000 that stems from local lows made back in September. That was the last area of strong demand prior to the dip this past weekend, and price held above it on this most recent dip. For now we can consider that area of support to still be valid. Price will technically remain in an uptrend unless/until the $40k level is taken out as price stands right now. Should price fall below $40k bears will most likely take it all the way back down to test the summer lows near $29k as there are likely a lot of newly leveraged bulls in the market right now. Currently neutral on price due to the magnitude of the weekend drop and lack of follow-through after the jump back up to $50k. Lower chart indicators are all showing negative trend and momentum for price which isn't helping the bullish case right now. Will turn bullish again if price can move back into the blue uptrend channel and above the 38.2% Fib level.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by PrepForProfit
S&P 500 Bearish DivergencesThe daily chart of the S&P500 shows price in an uptrend channel while currently trending in the lower half of the channel which is the weaker half of the channel where price is most susceptible to declines. For now the price candles remain green on the daily chart which indicate bullish momentum behind price. Most obvious on the chart right now is a bearish divergence between price and the lower indicators. A bearish divergence occurs when price makes a series of higher highs, while the indicators below make a series of lower high, thus creating a divergence in the trendline drawn across their respective peaks. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows a steady decline in price momentum with the green line PPO line beginning to cross below the purple signal line. This indicates bearish momentum in the short-term, but since both lines are still trending above the 0 level the intermediate-term momentum is considered to be bullish. The current reading could be interpreted as a bullish momentum pullback. The Average Directional Index(ADX) shows the green directional line above the purple directional line which indicates a bullish trend in price, but the purple line is close to crossing back above the green line which would indicate a shift to a bearish trend in price. The green directional line is in a slow decline as price has moved higher indicating weakness in the uptrend for price. The histogram in the background is dark green and trending flat meaning that there is no force or strength behind the dominant trend. The Traders Dynamic Index(TDI) shows the multi-color RSI line declining, but still above the 50 level which is the midpoint of the total RSI range. Since most of the RSI trading range has been between the 40-80 levels the background is colored green to indicate bullish momentum in the intermediate-term. We still want to watch that 50 level though as a breach below it could mark the beginning of a strong momentum pullback in price. The Bollinger Bands of the RSI are narrow and trending sideways indicating that volatility has leveled out and that a large move in either direction is likely. The TDI is also showing a bearish divergence from price above just as the other indicators are. Overall, the S&P500 remains bullish on the daily chart with caution warranted due to the bearish divergences between price and the lower indicators. Current stop-loss orders for trend traders should be placed just below local lows made in September and October of 2020 near the $3230 level.
SP:SPXLong
by PrepForProfit
Bellrock Brands on verge of potential breakout. There has been a noticeable shift in cannabis stock sentiment over the past 2-3 weeks and some of the top market cap charts that had been forming bottoming/basing patterns recently are now showing breakouts, or are on the verge of attempting a breakout. BellRock Brands is one of the lower market cap cannabis stocks that looks to be on the verge of a breakout based on two chart patterns as well as bullish technical indicators. A move above .18c with conviction, and on volume, would be bullish in the short-term and likely lead to a move near .30c before any significant selling materializes. No entry for me just yet, waiting to see the breakout above .18c in the chart first which is recommended for trend/momentum trading. Entries can be made here in the expectation of a breakout, but tight stop-loss orders are recommended in the event of a reversal. I'll likely share an update on Friday after markets close for the week, or if a significant change in price occurs.
OTC:DXBRFLong
by PrepForProfit
Gold Bull Flag Breakout AttemptGold price #xauusd is attempting to break above the upper line of the downtrend channel which would be a bull flag breakout, and the expected result of the bull flag pattern. The next resistance level stems from the local high made in early November at $1,966/oz. The stop-loss level stems from the local low made in early December at $1,763/oz. A break above the red line is bullish, a break below the yellow line is bearish. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line rolling back up above the 0 level which is bullish as a move belwo the 0 level would indicate a shift to bearish price momentum in the intermediate-term. What we want to see going forward is for the green PPO line to cross back above the purple signal line as this would indicate a shift back to bullish price momentum in the short-term. The PPO indicator is currently reading bullish overall. The Average Directional Index(ADX) shows the green +DI line above the purple -DI line which indicates a postive trend behind price in the short-term. The histogram in teh back round is green and declining which means that the dominant trend(bullish) is weakening. What we want to see going forward is for the green +DI line to remain above the purple -DI line and for the histogram bars in the background to begin rising to indicate a strengthening bull trend. Overall, the ADX is reading bullish. The Traders Dynamic Index(TDI) shows the multi-color RSI line currently green and trending back above the centerline of the Bollinger Bands which indicates that momentum is shifting bullish in the short-term. The TDI background is currently green and filling the 40-80 levels which indicates that price has bullish momentum in the intermediate-term. When the bulk of the RSI action is between the 40-80 levels the overall momentum behind price is considered to be bullish. Overall, gold price is looking good for a re-test of the $2,000/oz level and will more than likely push through it this next time. The most important thing that we learned in 2020 is that there is no limit to the trillions of dollars that will be printed and spent to prop up the stock market. Gold and silver should perform well for the foresseable future because printed money and low interest rates are the only thing keeping the stock market going. Those happen to be two perfect reasons to own precious metals, both physical and stocks.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by PrepForProfit
Bitcoin Spikes to 127% Fib ExtensionBitcoin has reached the first significant fib extension level when measured from the previous all-time high of $19,891 made in December 2017 to the December 2018 low of $3128. Price is now testing the 127% fib extension after setting a new all-time high in price at $24,200 this morning, with the 127% fib extension resting at $24,451 and currently acting as price resistance. The PPO indicator shows the green PPO line rising above the purple signal line, with both lines rising and trending above the 0 level. The green PPO line trending above the purple signal line indicate short-term bullish momentum, while both lines being above the 0 level indicates bullish intermediate-term momentum. Overall the PPO is indicating bullish momentum behind price. Looking at the TDI indicator we can see the the green RSI line is above the upper purple Bollinger Band. This indicates extreme bullish momentum volatility in price and in general you want to stay long anytime the daily, weekly and/or monthly TDI's show the RSI line above the upper Bollinger Band. The TDI also shows a green background which indicates bullish momentum in the intermediate-term as well. When the bulk of the green RSI line is trending between the 40-80 levels it indicates overall bullish momentum behind price, the 40-80 levels fill green to help identify the bullish momentum trend. While the PPO and RSI are both indicating bullish momentum behind price, Bitcoin has seen a swift run to $24k after making a new all-time high this month so a pullback should be expected. Price spiking to the 127% fib level today would be a good excuse for traders to take some profits. The most important thing to watch going forward if price pulls back is whether or not it holds above $20k. If price falls below $20k(the previous all-time high) it would be a bearish move and likely indicate more losses ahead. If price falls to the $20k level, holds there and then starts to rise again it would be a bullish move, especially if it takes out the 127% fib level which is currently holding back price.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by PrepForProfit
Silver Breaks Below Triangle/Pennant PatternAfter testing $30/oz back in early August and failing to move higher silver has had two significant pullbacks in price. The first was in mid-August which saw price fall from near $30/oz to a low of $23.40/oz on August 12th. The second significant pullback was today which saw price fall from nearly $27/oz at the open of trading today to a low of $23.71/oz-and an ultimate closing price of $24.71/oz. Today's pullback held just above Support 1 which stems from the August 12 low which was made during the first significant pullback after silver tested $30/oz. Should this support level fail to hold going forward, Support 2 is the next level I'm watching and stems from the long-legged doji candle low on July 28th. Long-legged doji candles are price candles where the open and close for the period are at, or near, the same price which creates a small candle body. The wicks, or legs, of the doji candle are long in length and show extreme moves up and down in price during the candle period. A small body and long wicks creates a long-legged doji candle and they are a sign of trader indecision. Since price ultimately moved higher after the July 28th doji candle it indicates that traders went from being undecided to bullish, and that the low of the doji candle should be the short-term low for the next rally. Price rallied to $30/oz on August 7th, declined to $23.40/oz on August 12th and is now testing that August 12th low again at Support 1. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) is showing the green PPO line trending below the purple signal line with both lines trending down. This indicates short-term bearish momentum in price. The green PPO line is crossing below the 0 level which indicates that intermediate-term momentum is turning bearish as well. The Average Directional Index(ADX) show the purple directional line has crossed above the green directional line which indicates that price has shifted from a bullish trend to bearish. The histogram in the background is flat, should it begin to rise it would indicate increasing strength in the bearish trend. Overall the ADX is showing a weak bearish trend in price. The Traders Dynamic Index(TDI) show the RSI line has crossed below the lower, blue Bollinger Band which indicates bearish momentum volatility in price. Crossing below the lower BBand has caused the RSI line to turn red which in turn has colored the price candles red as well since the price candle colors are based on the TDI. The background of the TDI is still green which indicates that the intermediate-term momentum in price is still bullish. Overall the TDI is showing a bearish spike in volatility during an overall uptrend in price. After many were hoping for a bullish resolution of the triangle pattern ie a breakout higher in price, today saw a major pullback to a critical support level. For the immediate short-term trend in price to remain bullish silver needs to hold above Support 1 near $23.40/oz. From there Support 2 near $22.29/oz would be the next likely support level on any potential move lower. The last level of support is Support 3 which is also the base area in price that was made before the swift move to $30/oz. Support 3 is in the $17-$19/oz area. Overall I'm still bullish on silver price going forward, but a move below Support 2 would indicate that the short-term trend in price is shifting from bullish to bearish. The would require monitoring price for a shift in intermediate-term trends as well.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by PrepForProfit
Gold Continues To Set New HighsGold price ended July at $1,974/oz which made last month the highest that gold has ever closed on a monthly basis-beating the previous high set back in August of 2011 of $1,823/oz. July also saw price make a new all-time high of $1,984/oz which beat Septemeber 2011's $1,920/oz. So far August 2020 has set a new all-time high of $2,030/oz which was made today with price currenty holding near that level. The current monthly candle is yellow which indicates that there is bullish momentum volatility behind price, or extreme trader optimism. May, June and July were all yellow candles as well which shows that there has been extreme optimism in the gold market for the past four months. The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line rising above the purple signal line which indicates short-term bullish momentum behind price. Both lines are above the 50 level which is the midpoint of the total RSI range. In general, when the green RSI line is trending above the 50 level it indicates bullish momentum in the intermediate-term while an RSI reading below 50 would indicates bearish momentum in the intermediate-term. Overall, the monthly RSI for gold is bullish since we have the green RSI line trending above the purple signal line, both lines rising, and both lines are above the 50 level. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line rising above the purple signal line which indicates short-term bullish momentum behind price. Both lines are above the 0 level which indicates that there is bullish momentum in the intermediate-term for price as well. In general, when both the green PPO line and purple signal line are trending above the 0 level it is considere a bullish momentum indication for price, and vice versa when both lines are declining below 0. The Average Directional Index(ADX) shows the green directional line trending above the purple directional line which indicates that there is a short-term bullish trend behind price. The histogram in the background is green and rising which indicates that the short-term bullish trend in price is increasing in strength. In general during an uptrend in price, you want to see the green direcitonal line above the purple direcitonal line and for the histogram to be rising as it is now. Overall, the view on gold price remain bullish with the expectation that gold and gold-related stocks will continue pushing higher this year, as well as silver and silver-related stocks. Current holdings are: GDX, GDXJ, GPL, CDE, HL, KGC, EXK, NGD, MUX, AG and physical silver since I expect silver to continue to outperform gold during this rally.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by PrepForProfit
12
Silver Makes 7-Year High, Gains +38% in July Silver has broken well above the long-term $20/oz resistance level that has capped price since 2013 and is now testing $25/oz which is a level not seen since 2013. Silver opened July at $18.20/oz and is currently at $25.15/oz for a +38% monthly gain going into August. While gold is making new all-time highs per-ounce above previous highs set back in 2011, silver is still well below its 2011 average of $35/oz and the 2011 all-time high of $49.83/oz, which is the level silver should be close to testing now if it had been keepig up with gold price this year. The current monthly price candle for silver is yellow which indicates that silver is experiencing bullish momentum volatility, or extreme trader optimism behind price. The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line rising above the purple signal line which indicates short-term bullish momentum on a monthly basis. The green RSI line is also above the 50 level which is the midpoint of the total RSI range(0-100). In general, price is considered to have bullish momentum when the RSI is above 50 and bearish momentum when below 50. In general during an uptrend, you want to see both the green RSI line and purple signal line both rising and trending above the 50 level. The purple signal line is just below 50, but it is slower to react to short-term price movement than the green RSI line but it should begin to drift up and above 50 after this months record month for silver price. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line rising above the purple signal line, and both lines are trending above the 0 level. When the green PPO line is rising above the purple signal line it indictes short-term bullish momentum behind price. When both lines are trending above the 0 level it indicates bullish momentum behind price in the intermediate-term. The Average Directional Index(ADX) shows the green directional movement line above the purple directional movement line which indicates a short-term postive trend hind price. When the green directional line is above the purple directional line it is considered bullish for price trend, while the purple directional line above the green directional line is considered bearish for price trend. The histogram behind the two directional lines represents trend strength. When the histogram is green and rising it indicates increasing strength in an uptrend. When the histogram is purple and rising it indicates increasing downtrend strength. For now the ADX reading is showing a shift to a bull trend in price with the green directional line above the purple, but due to the swiftness of the move in price it has yet to reflect in the histogram which should begin rising soon. Overall, the view on silver remains bullish with the opinion that silver will outperform gold during the current bull market that is taking form. Silver had severely lagged gold this year in price gains until this past week and is now rushing to make up for lost time. Current holdings remain to be: GPL, HL, EXK, AG, KGC, MUX, CDE, NGD, GDXJ, GDX and physical silver.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by PrepForProfit
11
Gold Makes New All-Time HighGold price made a new all-time high overnight of $1,945/oz breaking the old record of $1,920/oz set back in 2011. Price is currently holding above $1,930/oz and close to making July a record closing month as well if gold holds above $1,825/oz into August which looks likely. Price has been on a steady rise with bullish momentum since mid-2019 as indicated by the green and yellow candles after price broke above the red $1,400/oz resistance level. Price is currently breaking to new all-time highs on a yellow candle which indicates that there is bullish momentum volatility behind price, or extreme optimism by traders. The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line rising and trending above the purple signal line which indicates bullish short-term price momentum, with both lines rising and trending above the 50 level which is the midpoint of the total RSI range. An RSI reading above 50 indicates bullish intermediate-term price momentum while a reading below 50 indicates bearish intermediate-term momentum. The RSI currently shows bullish short and intermediate-term momentum for gold price. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line rising and trending above the purple signal line which indicates bullish short-term price momentum, with both lines rising and trending above the 0 level. A PPO reading above 0 indicates bullish intermediate-term price momentum while a reading below 0 indicates bearish intermediate-term momentum. The PPO currently shows bullish short and intermediate-term momentum for gold price. The Average Directional Index(ADX) show the green directional trend line trending above the purple directional line which indicates that the short-term trend direction for price is bullish. The histogram behind the green and purple directional lines is green and rising which indicates that the strength behind the bullish price trend is increasing. The ADX currently shows a bullish trend behind price. The view this year has been bullish on gold with the expectation that price would make a new all-time high by year end, and now that price has officially set a new all-time high the view remains bullish going forward. Current gold and silver stock/ETF holdings are: GPL, HL, EXK, AG, KGC, MUX, CDE, NGD, GDXJ, GDX.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by PrepForProfit
SPY Island Reversal SetupLast week saw the largest decline in markets since the rally of the March low and in doing so created an Island Reversal Pattern which is a bearish type of chart pattern. Island Reversals form when price creates a gap up during an uptrend, holds above the gap level for a few days, and then reverses back to the downside while creating another gap on the move down thus creating an “island” consisting of a few price candles that are suspended above the bulk of recent trend. This Island Reversal occurred during a trend of yellow price candles which indicates that the market was experiencing bullish momentum volatility which can either be a signal of continuation or sign of a reversal. In general, after a period of bullish momentum volatility the trend will continue upward as long as price remains above the low of the first yellow candle(dashed yellow line) while a reversal tends to occur if price breaches below the first yellow candle. Price held just above the dashed yellow line on Thursday’s decline as well as on Friday’s attempted rally. Going into the new week of trading there are two things we want to watch for as a signal of what to expect next: 1) Should price make a move below the dashed yellow line it will likely be an indication that the two-month rally off of the March low has ended and a new short-term bear trend is forming. 2) Should price hold above the dashed yellow line and move higher while filling the gap it will likely indicate that the recent uptrend is still in play while keeping momentum in favor of the bulls. The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI has crossed below the purple signal line which indicates that the short-term momentum in price has shifted bearish. The green RSI is holding above the 50 level which is the midpoint of the total RSI range. In general, an RSI reading above the 50 level indicates overall bullish momentum behind price while a reading below 50 indicates overall bearish momentum behind price. Should the green RSI line cross below the 50 level it could be an indication that overall momentum is turning bearish, while a bounce up and off of the 50 level would indicate that overall momentum is remaining bullish. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO in a fresh cross below the purple signal line which indicates short-term bearish momentum in price. The PPO and signal line both remain above the 0 level though which indicates that overall price momentum remains bullish. In general, a PPO reading above 0 indicates intermediate-term bullish momentum while a reading below 0 indicates intermediate-term bearish momentum. The Average Directional Movement Indicator(ADX) shows the green directional line(+DI) has crossed below the purple directional line(-DI) which indicates that the short-term trend in price is bearish. When the green +DI line is trending above the purple -DI line it indicates a bullish price trend, while the purple -DI line trending above the green +DI line indicates a bearish price trend. The histogram in the background shows trend strength and since we have the purple line above the green line it is showing us the strength of the bearish trend. When the histogram is rising it indicates a strong trend and when the histogram is declining it represents a weak trend, and for now the histogram is declining which indcicate that the current bearish trend is weak. The Volume indicator shows a two-day spike in volume as price gapped down after a period of relatively low volume in April and May. The volume on Thursday and Friday was at its highest levels since the March selloff which indicates that more traders were active on the late-week selloff. Overall the dominant trend in price remains bullish, but could turn bearish based on the island reversal setup as well as weakening lower trend and momentum indicators. Watch for support above the dashed yellow line as a signal that price may move higher; watch for a move below the dashed yellow line as a signal that the uptrend has ended. Current view is neutral, but I opened a short-trade on Friday due to the possibility that the island reversal pattern was a sign that the two-month rally has lost steam and is at risk of reversing to the downside.
AMEX:SPY
by PrepForProfit
1
Silver Testing Trendline ResistanceSilver(Sl1!) closed at $17.90 on Tuesday for a $0.53(+3%) gain on the day. Price is currently testing the $18 level which is just below a diagonal trendline which stems from the August high near $20. Price has also created a series of yellow candles over the past 4 trading sessions which indicates that there is bullish momentum volatility behind price according to my candle color momentum algorithm. The yellow candles indicate that price may be due for a pullback which wouldn’t be a surprise considering how fast silver has moved from below $16 to its current level, especially with overhead resistance in the diagonal trendline. The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line at the 80 level and indicates that there is strong momentum behind price. While this is bullish for momentum, the 80 level is usually where momentum tends to peak out and price can be expected to weaken in the short-term. An RSI reading above 50 indicates overall bullish price momentum while a reading below 50 indicates bearish price momentum. The purple signal line is rising above the 50 level which indicates bullish momentum in the intermediate-term. Going forward we want to see the green RSI line remain above the 50 level as well as the purple signal line on any pullback as a signal that bullish momentum is holding. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line and purple signal line rising above the 0 level with the green PPO line above the purple signal line which indicates bullish momentum behind price. When both lines are trending above the 0 level the overall momentum behind price is considered bullish, while both lines trending below the 0 level would indicate overall bearish momentum. As long as the green PPO line is trending above the purple signal line, and both lines are trending up from the 0 level the current bullish momentum behind price will be sustained. The Average Directional Movement Index(ADX) show the green direction line trending above the purple direction line which indicates a positive trend in price. The histogram in the background is rising which indicates that the current price trend is increasing in strength. In general during an uptrend, you want to see the green line rising above the purple line and for the histogram bars to be rising as a sign that the trend is increasing in strength. Volume still remains relatively low when compared to recent advances and declines in price seen in the past. In order for the current uptrend to hold we need to see volume increase in order to sustain the move higher. There is a slight increase in volume though which is a good sign during an advance in price, just need to see overall volume increase going forward. The overall view on silver remains bullish, but a pullback in the short-term is expected here due to the upward price volatility seen over the past week and due to the fact that price is approaching a diagonal trendline. The current stop-loss level for long trades remains at $14.70 which is near the last base made in price, or area of demand. The stop-loss line is drawn just below a series of green doji candles which were indicative of trader indecision prior to the move higher this past week. After being indecisive traders ultimately pushed price higher from that level so going forward I expect that level to continue to be an area of price demand. Should price fall below the stop-loss level it could indicate that traders no longer see value in silver at that level and a deeper pullback would be possible. The levels to watch going forward are the $14.70 level for support, while a push above the diagonal resistance line would be bullish.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by PrepForProfit
S&P500 Triple Top at 61.8% Fib Resistance, And A GapThe S&P 500(SPX) closed today at $2,922.94 for a -$30(-1.05%) loss on the trading session. Price is also once again hitting 61.8% Fibonacci resistance and setting up for what could potentially be a triple top pattern. The 61.8% Fib level has acted as resistance since late April while each pullback has held at the 50% Fib making this the current consolidation range as traders attempt to figure out if Federal Reserve money printing is enough juice to override the overwhelmingly bearish economy. Today’s price candle closed green which indicates that there is bullish momentum behind price, but the candle also closed as an inside candle which could be a sign of a reversal head. An inside candle is when the current candle’s high and low is completely inside the range of the previous candle’s high and low range, which indicates that traders were unable to move price higher or lower than yesterdays levels and are most likely indecisive as to which direction to go. There was also a gap created in the chart from Friday’s close and Monday’s open, and gaps tend to be filled so going forward we might be looking at a gap-fill this week with price falling down near the $2870 level or roughly -1.7% from today’s closing price. A gap fill would also take price back down near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level which means we’d get to see if that level will continue to act as price support. The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line trending just above the purple signal line which indicates short-term bullish momentum is behind price. The green RSI line and purple signal line are both above the 50 level which is the midpoint of the total RSI range. In general, an RSI reading above the 50 level indicates overall bullish momentum behind price while a reading below 50 indicates overall bearish momentum behind price. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO overlapping the purple signal line which indicates that short-term momentum has turned neutral. In general, you want to see the green PPO line rising above the purple signal line as an indication that there is bullish momentum behind price. Both lines remain above the 0 level though which indicates that price still has bullish momentum in the intermediate-term. A PPO reading above 0 indicates intermediate-term bullish momentum while a reading below 0 indicates intermediate-term bearish momentum. The Average Directional Movement Indicator(ADX) shows the green directional line above the purple directional line which indicates that there is a short-term positive trend in price. The histogram in the background at very low levels after a recent decline which indicates that the overall strength in trend has weakened. In general, you want to see the histogram rising as a sign of trend strength; if the green line is above the purple line and the histogram is rising you have increasing bull trend strength. If the purple line is above the green line and the histogram is rising you have increasing bear trend strength. Overall price remains neutral here as price continues to find resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The lower momentum and trend indicators still show a slight bullish bias, but with resistance at the golden Fib level and a lower gap in the chart the likely move going forward will be a pullback and re-test of the 50% Fib level while closing the gap. In order for me to turn bullish on the S&P500 I would like to see price push above the 61.8% level; to turn bearish I would need to see a move below the 50% Fib level and for the lower indicators to turn bearish as well.
SP:SPX
by PrepForProfit
10
Silver Moves Higher After Series of Doji'sSilver(Sl1!) closed at $16.15 from an opening price of $15.75 for a gain of $0.40(+2.54%) today. This move comes after a recent break above trendline resistance which was followed by 4 days of price holding above the trendline. This hold above the trendline saw 4 doji candles form which are indecision candles. A doji candle is a price candle with a small body, and upper/lower wicks of relatively the same length. Today’s candle closed above the upper wicks of the preceding doji/indecision candles which indicates that traders are no longer indecisive, and since they moved price higher the trend that follows should be a continued move to the upside. The Relative Strength Index(RSI) show the green RSI line rising up off of the 50 level which is the midpoint of the total RSI range. An RSI reading above 50 indicates bullish price momentum while a reading below 50 indicates bearish price momentum. The purple RSI signal line has also now crossed above the 50 level as well which indicates that intermediate-term momentum is shifting bullish. Both the RSI line and signal line rising together is a sign of bullish momentum. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line and purple signal line rising above the 0 level with the green PPO line above the purple signal line and indicates bullish momentum behind price. When both lines are trending above the 0 level the overall momentum behind price is considered bullish, while both lines trending below the 0 level would indicate overall bearish momentum. As long as the green PPO line is trending above the purple signal line, and both lines are trending up from the 0 level the current bullish momentum behind price will be sustained. The Average Directional Movement Index(ADX) show the green direction line trending above the purple direction line which indicates a positive trend in price. The histogram in the background has also begun to rise which indicates that the trend direction is increasing in strength. In general during an uptrend, you want to see the green line rising above the purple line and for the histogram bars to be rising as a sign that the trend is increasing in strength. Volume still remains relatively low when compared to recent advances and declines in price shown in the past. In order for the current uptrend to hold we need to see volume increase in order to sustain the move higher. Overall, silver is looking good after the recent break above the orange trendline, but still needs to take out overhead resistance in the $16.50 area. The trend and momentum indicators are leaning bullish, but the lack of volume is the concerning part about this move higher. Should price break above $16.50 we should start to see more volume appear, but until that $16.50 level is taken out there is still a chance that this breakout could fail and lead to a price reversal. The stop-loss level has been moved up on today’s breakout and now rests at $14.70. This is just below the last base, or area of consolidation, prior to the break above the orange trendline. This is considered to be the last area of demand prior to the advance in price thus making it the best stop-loss level for long trades. Should price fall below that level the short-term bullish bias in price would be at risk of shifting bearish.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by PrepForProfit
2