ETF Developers Buying Ahead of Q2 Earnings Reports: HDThis Dow component was the highest gainer for the average with a modest 2.10% gain yesterday. NYSE:HD price action was very controlled. Volume was slightly below average indicating it was likely ETF developers buying ahead of the earnings report.
Accumulation/Distribution indicator confirms this price range is a buy zone.
This is a technical setup to watch for pre-earnings runs for swing trading.
PRE
ROKU trade for upcoming earnings LONGROKU is here on a 15 minute chart. An anchored VWAP breakout from the lowermost bands
three days prior to earnings suggests to me a long trade through the earnings. The target
is on the chart as the recent high pivots and mean VWAP line. This is a swing trade of about
4-5 days expectant for a 6% gain and perhaps more with a call option trade to supplement
the shares.
PG slow and steady long term winner with earnings coming LONGPG on the weekly chart gained 15% in a year and had a dip in the past two weeks with earnings
at the end of this week. PG persistently and consistently beats earnings estimates and pays a
dividend. Moreover, it consistently has a bit of a surge after earnings. I see this as an
opportunity to get a good stock on a 4% dip of a discount and hold it through earnings for
perhaps a 10% profit in two weeks while also picking up the quarterly dividend. Some traders
including those institutionally based believe that buying near to the middle line of the Bollinger
Bands is a good entry for getting fair value. I am one of them.
WM Waste Management ( Garbage Collector / Recycler ) LONGWM on a 180 minute chart shows a trend up since the October earnings. The January earnings
substantially beat the earnings from the October report and the uptrend accelerated. The chart
shows both VWAP band and volume profile breakouts persisting over 5 months. I have added to
my long-term position in WM with call options for January 2026 striking $200. These have
expensive premiums but I believe there is high value showing on the chart. I have taken partial
significant profits from the $190 calls for January 2025 and am rolling the remaining a year
forward. I will also buy a lot of shares now and hold them for about 4 weeks closing out most
of the position a few days before earnings and hold the remainder through the earnings.
Profits will be used to buy another call option.
PRE IS A ROCKETWe have identified an A wave and a large B wave on the chart. From where we have entered on the chart "START" our big B wave has started
Wave B seems to be a diametric, with only its final wave, its g wave, remaining.
In the green range, you can look for buy/long positions.
We have specified the targets on the chart. Closing a weekly candle below the green range will violate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
BTTR- a volatile pre-earnings high flying penny stock LONGBTTR has been slowly gathering steam since last week. Today the buying momentum
went into high gear with a big jump. This is a penny stock about as volatile as it gets
with its backstop far below current market price. With earnings in two days BTTR could
easily run another 30% turn around and fall. The price action and the MACD speak for
themselves. I will take a small position about 3% of my account with a stop loss of 10%
given the volatility. I will advance the stop loss but give room to account for the volatility.
I would like to make about 20-25% on this trade over 2-3 days and will have TV alerts to
let me know when the tide is about to go out. One alert will be the fade on the Price Momentum
Oscillator while the other price crossing down on the faster HMA.
Presearch (PRE)Presearch is the first decentralized search engine which seems to have a good future; need more nodes in many regions. Anyway, its price movement also harbinger of much higher prices. PRE is unfolding a huge inverted wedge pattern which means big movements as the wedge gets wider and wider. Let's see what happens.
CRM Setting Up for Earnings Next WeekCRM reports earnings next week. This was a pre-earnings run that settled into an unstable sideways trend and then went down due to a lack of strong retail buying.
Volume is exceedingly low to the downside. This is not a sell short setup. Buy zone support is too close from the bottom formation.
NVDA had a similar pattern and gapped up on its earnings release news.
Catching a Falling Knife with AMD on the 30 minute chartBetting on a price increase after a sharp price decrease is called "catching a falling knife". In fact, you may have heard someone say, "don't try to catch a falling knife." The analogy is meant to sound dangerous because it is very risky to buy a stock that is dropping rapidly. The hope is that if you time it right, you will get in at the bottom and make big profits. The opposite is true as well, but catching a knife thrown upward sounds like an even worse idea.
I would like to suggest that it's possible to profit from a knife-catching strategy if you manage your risk and timing properly.
In the chart for AMD, I've marked the opportunities to catch a falling (or rising) knife, which have been occurring on a daily basis for the past week.
For AMD, a price bottom has typically been forming after the price has dropped significantly over the previous day. And a top has formed after the price has risen significantly over the previous day. Sometimes it's not clear if a bottom or top has formed such as on October 25. In that case, it's a coin flip (50% chance of being right).
The key to success in this strategy is to set a tight stop loss and to buy or sell short during the pre-market (yellow-shaded area). There were at least 6 excellent opportunities last week to do this.
Unfortunately, I wasn't paying attention to AMD until the morning of Friday, October 28. I saw the opportunity and realized that there was no way my order would have a chance to go through when the market opened if the price was making a dramatic move. I bought a half hour before the market opened (9:00 AM Eastern) and set my stop loss below the low reached post-market the previous day. Once the market opened, the price was already climbing and I got out before 10:00 AM Eastern. My risk-reward ratio was 1:5. That is, I risked 1 dollar for every 5 dollars I profited. Not too shabby.
It appears that Monday is going to be another great opportunity, and I will be watching the pre-market closely. I will be setting a stop loss at 62.30 and a take profit of around 59.50. Although I will be watching for the right time to get out, which is usually when the price reverses, and I chicken out as I did on the 28th.
Monday's trade will be going against the larger trend which I believe is heading to 73 by the end of November. See the link to my longer-term analysis of AMD.
This is not a 100% fool-proof strategy, and the conditions that make this look easy can change completely and without notice. Also, the volatility can stop you out too soon. Take a look at October 22 for an example of where I would have been stopped out and lost out on the subsequent big move.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and the above statements are not investment advice. My comments are only intended for educational purposes. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
I'd like to add that developing these analyses is a powerful educational tool for the one doing the analysis (namely me). It helps me formulate my thoughts and plan my trades so that I can make the best decisions possible. I'm training my brain to eventually do this automatically when I glance at a chart. It's a skill that I hope will benefit me for the rest of my life. I hope you enjoyed reading as much as I did writing. Give some thought to publishing your own ideas. I highly recommend it. Have a profitable week!
Gold Setup Idea: Pre New York (Sept 27, 2022)Here is my analysis based on price action during the Asia session and London session, it appears we are retracing after making new lows. This means we have a temporary relief of HTF bearish influence and can possibly expect to see some bullish price action today; but it is certainly more risky to buy than to sell gold right now given the current macro economic conditions. I am ultimately looking to sell since I believe there is a higher probability of it succeeding, but if price break london high and shows bullish strength in NY open, forming LTF support above $1640, then buys are certainly possible.
What do you anticipate price to do in NY open/today?
US Pre Market DashboardI'm based in the UK. This is my dashboard to keep an eye on in the run up to the US open. It includes NDQ, SPX & DJI futures (white line = current contract, blue line = contract in front), US Treasury 2/10 and 3m/10 yield curves, DXY, BTC and UK100 index.
On the US index charts I've overlayed spot candle charts to see the difference between spot prices vs futures.
Initially I had 2 layouts, one for futures/pre market and another with spot/open market. However, having tried using both in line and candle formats on the same layout, I'm finding this is suitable for pre and open hours. I frequently switch between hourly or daily, but during pre market hours in the run up to open, it's always the hourly chart, zoomed so that the full previous day's trading hours are visible.
Comments, questions and suggestions welcome!
Trade safe folks :-)