GOLD Risky Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD broke the local
Horizontal level of 1930$
Which is now a support
And Gold is now retesting
This level again so I think
That we are likely to see
A local bullish rebound
And a move up
Buy!
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Preciousmetals
Gold prices have upward momentum in the short termGold prices increased short-term this week but were affected by information about the FED's upcoming interest rate increase. But recent results show a rapid recovery in the US economy in the second half of 2023. We can therefore see the Gold market likely to quickly return below 1900.
Analysis of NZD/USD todayHello friends.
NZD/USD started the new week on a positive note, trading higher around 0.5910 despite weak economic data from New Zealand. This currency pair received support for the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to increase interest rates.
The pair is targeting $0.594.
Testing resistance, ahead of XAU/USD declineAlselv hello everyone, let's comment on the Gold price this week.
Currently, today's gold price continues to show strength when trading around the 1933 USD mark.
However, high gold prices and the weakness of the Chinese and Indian currencies against the US dollar will continue to weigh on demand for gold.
GOLD, Initial Relief-Rally To Emerge, Important Zones!Hello Traders Investors And Community,
Welcome to this analysis about GOLD on the 4-hour timeframe perspectives. As already mentioned in the former analysis on the more global perspectives of 12-hours or higher GOLD is within this massive descending-channel-formation in which it is likely to test the remaining resistances and after that move on with its downtrend in the structure. Now as I detected in my analysis on the more local 4-hour timeframe GOLD moved into important support zones and the structure is indicating a relief-rally to test the remaining resistances which is also confirming the assumption of the broader perspectives, therefore I detected all the important levels and likely destinies we should consider with GOLD in the next times.
As when looking at my chart now we can watch there how GOLD has bounced firstly from this ascending-trend-line marked in black where GOLD had important supports before and now bounced there again, furthermore GOLD moved into an overbought condition and also has horizontal support lying within this structure at the 1770 level. Taking these factors into consideration GOLD has the ability to first show up with bounces here which will test the descending-trend-line marked in grey in my chart. When then GOLD is strong enough and bullishness can increase further this can lead to a breakout above the descending trend-line and such a breakout will be the activation for GOLD to test the further remaining resistance at 1810 as marked in my chart.
Now when GOLD manages to form these movements and develop the breakout to test the major resistance this does not mean GOLD is completely bullish as already suggested there is still this overall bearish tendency on the more global term. This is why it will be extremely important on how GOLD approaches this strong remaining resistance and how it follows up from there, when a strong pullbacks sets in this has the possibility for GOLD to take up the downtrend again which should not be underestimated. However, till then we should keep patient and elevate the final destinations before rushing into trades that do not satisfy as this is an important virtue for a trader and distinguishes real trading from mere speculation.
In this manner, thank you for watching my analysis about GOLD and the upcoming relief rally we should expect; will be great when you support it with a like and follow or comment, great contentment for everybody supporting, all the best!
"The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate."
Information is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
AMRK A-Mark Precious Metals Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AMRK A-Mark Precious Metals prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 35usd strike price in the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-9-15,
for a premium of approximately $1.92.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
More downside for gold is probableIn line with our previous ideas and choppy price action, we continue to wait for a better opportunity to add gold to our portfolio. We are neutral to slightly bearish in the short term while bullish in the long term. However, we still deem a weakness in the stock market as a danger to the higher price of gold (at least for now). As a result, we believe gold's price is still not out of the woods. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see it plunge below $1,900 again in the foreseeable future. This possibility is indicated by technicals on the daily and weekly charts, which are growing increasingly bearish. Therefore, more weakness for gold is probable. We will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of MACD, which failed to hold above the midpoint. That is a bearish development.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bearish
Weekly = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
KOG REPORT:KOG Report:
There were no KOG Reports for a couple of weeks, so we won’t start with the typical “In last week’s KOG Report”. We did however still keep our Camelot members active during our break with Merlin giving some fantastic trade targets and our bias working well. The plan was to short, the levels worked well, and the target level was reached. We then switched the bias to bullish above on Friday with the first target level 1929, which was also completed. Those who followed the free analysis shared will also have been presented with another short trade which we suggested should be taken level to level.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
We’re expecting a choppy week with some potential range bound movement in the early sessions. News in the latter half of the week is almost guaranteed to drive the markets, so please, as usual, make sure you have a good risk model in place and your lot sizes are sensible and in accordance with your account size.
We have lower levels of 1910-12 which was a previous level of interest on Gold, so any attempt at that level may see a reaction in price. That’s also the first level we will be looking for as a potential target for the short trades. Above, we have the first resistance level 1924-6 and above that 1930-35 order region. As you can see from the illustration, including the extension of the move into 1940-45 we’ll be looking at these levels for potential long trades, and then on the flip for hunting the short trade back down.
The ideal scenario here is to capture that long trade back up and then assess the markets if it gets there, to then short it back down based on a confirmed structure. Obviously, we will be looking for Excalibur activations to guide during the course of the week.
Please note, breaking below that support level will move the price into the lower liquidity regions first, before an attempt to recover.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
SILVER Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER has been growing
Lately and looks oversold
So as we are seeing a failure to
Break the falling resistance and
A nice bearish reaction from it
I think that we will see a
Local bearish pullback
Sell!
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Platinum is trying to break the resistance!
As we expected in the previous published idea, we got a nice follow up after the price formed a double bottom. The price has risen to the first resistance level. Breaking this will push the price to the 980 level.
Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
XAU/USD -Facing Local Resistance- Gold is facing a local resistance trendline which previously was acting
as Support trendline within the pattern.
Last 3D candlestick print managed to put a higher high in terms of market structure (BoS).
Entry from here is quite risky, however, spot SL is just about 1% from current price.
Last 3D Candlesticks looks like a Bullish Hammer being printed, yet weak in terms
of price action having experienced rejection from resistance trendline .
Wave 5 anticipation for Gold, headed to NATH, but first, price needs to pick it self back up
and penetrate through the broken trendline in order to continue higher.
Quite some critical moves ahead for Gold's Direction
TRADE SAFE
*** Note that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before
partaking on nay trading activity based solely on this Idea.
XAG/USD -Weekly Uptrend Outlook(update)- Silver's uptrend remains intact techincally speaking,
as long as its plenty of supports below are there to enforce uptrend resumption.
A decent Demand Zone as well just in case TVC:DXY starts flying by the next Feds Interest Rate Hikes decision after a Month of Breath,
making Financial Markets turn around.
For now, in the short term Silver may be struggling a little bit, only to find new
buyers at its close lower levels.
Losing grip of 0.618 Fibbonaci Trend Retracement would make me worried whether price will follow bars patterns
Note that bars patterns are there just to give a mere visualization idea for uptrends worst case scenario without breaking Weekly Uptrend market structure.
In case 22.1$ price level (recent HL market's structure) and support trendline is to be violated through huge selling volume, that would shift Character of Weekly Uptrend
Until the next one ;
Trade smart ,
TRADE SAFE
*** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice .
Please do your own Research before partaking on any Trading Activities
based solely on this Idea.
$XAG/USD -Taking Profits on Silver Taking Profits on Silver at Golden Zone of Trend Fibbonnaci Retracement set on *Weekly (tf).
For a full chart break-down and incoming targets,
(check idea 'Weekly Uptrend Outlook)
We're looking for Short set ups in the short-term at 0.618 acting as resistance
(fake break-out may occur)
Buy setups incoming with 0.618 being broken with decent volume and waiting for a re-test
(Buy Orders)
TRADE SAFE
*** Note that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research before partaking on any Trading Acitivity based solely on this Idea
Silver ~ Snapshot TA / Bullish ConsolidationTVC:SILVER rallying to the upside & revealing its Bullish inclinations ahead of key Global Economic events.
Fibonacci Extension doing a great job identifying key Demand/Supply zones to watch for smaller-timeframe trend rejection/continuations.
Dashed horizontal lines (~25.26/~22.21) highlight key Make or Break levels for longer duration Swing Trades.
Golden Pocket/Gap Fill confluence presents interesting Stink Bid opportunity if Silver price action turns to disaster.
Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :)
OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! COMEX:SI2!
KOG REPORT:KOG Report:
In last week’s KOG Report, we said we would keep the bias as bearish below 1945 and we would be looking for the target level of 1890. Ideally, we wanted the support levels to hold giving us a move for the long trades, and then we would be looking upside resistance to short the market again down into the given level. Unfortunately, we didn’t get the move to the upside we wanted, instead, Excalibur kept activating short only giving us level to level opportunities for good captures, but not the big one that we wanted. It ended with one of the best week’s we’ve had in Camelot with a succession of completed targets across the markets and US30 being the star of the week.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
We have a few levels on the radar for this week with the key levels being the 1860-65 region support and the 1899-1903 level resistance level with the extension above that at 1906-10. The bias will remain as bearish below of which the levels will be given daily updates but the preference this week will be on trying to capture the bounce from support levels. For that reason, we will be looking at price attempting to target the immediate resistance levels above 1895 and above that 1899 where if we see strong resistance, we feel an opportunity to short the market down into the support levels could exist. It’s these lower support levels where again this week we will be looking for the reaction in price in attempt to capture the long trade back up into the higher resistance levels initially 1910 and above that 1917-20.
Now, on the flip, if we break resistance to the upside, we will be switching to level-to-level trading following Excalibur to the upside and looking for a strong level of resistance. Upon a confirmed set up, we will be looking to short the market back down into that support level following the bias and the daily targets.
What we need to keep in mind is that we have Jackson Hole coming up towards the end of the week. It is very likely we will see choppy price action and potentially a range forming towards Thursday and Friday. We have published the previous analysis on Jackson Hole (link below), please have a look at this as it will give you an idea of the potential the market has to really move price aggressively. We will post part 2 during the week.
KOG's Bias for the week:
Bearish below 1907
Bullish on break of 1907
Key levels:
Resistance: 1899 / 1910 /1917 /1920
Support: 1880 / 1875 /1867 / 1860
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
#Gold Update I believe we are in wave (3) of of c. It has been difficult to define what was going on at the lowest levels of time.
In doing so, I tagged the result of 1-2 waves, anticipating a decrease in wave 3 of 3 of (3) anytime soon. However, the big plunge may never occur because the price continues to roll gradually down through levels.
Platinum is ready for a pushWhile long term us yields have been rising heavily, we saw harsh drops on the precious metals including OANDA:XAUUSD , OANDA:XAGUSD and $OANDA:XPTUSD. Platinum has started show reversal movements. The price formed a double bottom and breaking the middle point. RSI also shows the bullish divergence.
Additionally, the ratio between platinum and gold also formed a double bottom, and it breaks through the down trend as well. This is a good sign for all the precious metals. If we look at the previous ratio, platinum is ultra cheap compared to gold. If we are entering the super cyle era for precious metals, platinum is going to be the star of the show.
Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
#Silver Update The price consolidated on the solid level of support. Within the outlined scenario, I consider it to be wave (iv) before the terminal (v) in of W. In the chart below, I indicated that wave ideally would need to reach 100% of in length. It will be sufficient, although Silver tends to go wild in terminal moves and overshoot such targets.
$DXY - Headed South (97) - The Dollar Index TVC:DXY is trading below many resistances
(broken big range of 100.8-105 ; trendline resistance from 114 High; 20-50EMA)
In the short term TVC:DXY seems to be gravitating towards downside, with a completion
of macro correction ABC Waves, with C wave probably ending at 97 macro S/R
resistance area.
This critical macro S/R is quite likely the next stop for TVC:DXY to find some floor of
Support to bounce greatly.
With TVC:DXY headed South at 97, other Financial Markets Sectors will perform great
in gains, so would Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies
TRADE SAFE !
*** Note that this is not Financial Advice.
Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking
on any trading activity based solely on this Idea.
Platinum is finally showing some life signals!The price fell hard in the last weeks under the yearly support find, but is finally showing some reversal signals. The green trendline is coming from last August. Both RSI and OBV show some degree of bullish reversal signals. The supertrend painted BUY in 4h. If we can clear the band at 925$, OANDA:XPTUSD can see the 980$ area quickly. Depending on how fast we go there, the structure may look like an eve-adam pattern, which may throw the price to 1040-1080 region.
Combining the move with OANDA:XPDUSD , we may be at the beginning of a big bullish movement of precious metals!
Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Bearish Alt-Bat On The Monthly Entering Years Long Bear MarketGold could be due for a years long correction down to A level at $1052 as that is the target of this Bearish Alt-Bat given the circumstances i wont be looking for any bullish setups on gold in the long-mid term only bearish ones.
This probably isn't a good sign for extended commodities either, the only commodities i will look for signs of bullishness in are undervalued ones like copper.
Why Silver stands out.In the ever-evolving landscape of global economics, precious metals like silver, often serve as key indicators and safe havens. This week, we'll explore the factors making silver an interesting prospect in today's market.
Current Macroeconomic Indicators:
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicates a slight increase in the US for July, registering at 3.2%, up from the previous month's 3%. Predictive models from the Reserve Bank of Cleveland suggest an impending rise for the August CPI. Concurrently, the Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model projects a rise in GDP figures.
Silver, Inflation & GDP:
The above becomes important when historical data reveals that significant spikes in silver prices often follow periods of simultaneous rises in GDP and inflation. Notably, in years that saw increases in both indicators, silver recorded gains of 38% and 46% in 2009 and 2020, respectively. Conversely, 2002 saw a modest 2% return.
Silver vs. Gold:
A measure of relative value between the two major precious metals via the ratio of Silver to Gold, further substantiates the idea of a potential strength in Silver. The ratio is trading just off a trend support-turned-resistance and at the upper end of the symmetrical triangle. Resistance here can play out in the format of silver strengthening relative to gold.
Yields and Silver:
The longstanding inverted relationship of yield and silver can be observed in the chart, but the ratio provides some insights into the limits of this relationship. What’s immediately obvious to us post 2008 there has been a regime change in this relationship as yield grinded lower and silver remains elevated. With no immediate large catalyst on the horizon, it is likely the current regime will hold and hence, the ‘floor’ in this relationship is near. Meaning relative to current levels of yield, Silver is trading on the lower side.
Equities vs ‘real’ economy:
Beyond being a precious metal, silver's industrial applications—from automotive to solar panels and electronics manufacturing—make it a bellwether for the 'real' economy, akin to copper. Comparing the Nasdaq 100 against industrial metals illustrates a disparity between equities and the 'real' economy, positioning silver as significantly undervalued relative to peers like copper and gold.
Positioning:
Current market positions, particularly among net Non-Commercials, seem to favor silver with a growing bullish sentiment.
Technical Analysis:
A noteworthy observation is the persistence of the 22.5 level as a pivotal support and resistance mark for silver, a trend tracing back to the 80s.
Prices currently thread above this level and remain supported by an uptrend that began in August 2022. Additionally, RSI points to oversold, and in the past 4 instances when RSI reached such levels, prices quickly rebounded thereafter.
Against the above factors, we see support for Silver, on multiple fronts, such as economic cycle, relative value against equities, and underpriced when compared against gold. Hence, to express our view on Silver, we can set up a long position on the Silver Futures at the current level of 22.67 with a stop at 21.8 and take profit at 25.10 . Silver prices are quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per troy ounce and each 0.005 move is equal to 25 Dollars.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
www.atlantafed.org
www.clevelandfed.org