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A 3 year-sized F. Bull FlagSilver gives the main message on the chart. While financial powers shifting from west to east, all the precious metals will be very important to state the power of any currency like in the old days. No more money printing like no more tomorrows. Otherwise the money will turn to a meaningless paper due to inflation. Gold is already shining but silver, oh my silver. When we break this f. bull flag, we will see 26 and 32 quickly. Silver will move way faster than gold. Look at the XAUXAG ratio. Historical median point is around 32 where it is above 80 nowadays. Stock your precious metals at home, buy more rings to your significant one or get some silver spoon and forks. The real money will take the power again! Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
OANDA:XAGEURLong
by WhaleGambit
What’s next for Gold & S&P 500?Having covered Gold & the Equity Index last week, this week we will look at how we could leverage both to trade on the move we’re watching! Quite a happening market we first covered Gold two weeks ago. Firstly, the interest rates market had a sizeable correction, with the 10Y-2Y yield now trading at close to -0.45% instead of the -1% range just 3 weeks ago. Secondly, with FOMC out of the way, we have some clarity on what the Fed thinks of the current bank contagion episode as well as how markets reacted to the Fed’s statement. With all these in mind, one thing we want to point out is the relationship between yield curve inversions across the different tenures of the curve. Comparing the past 2 episodes of yield curve inversion on the shorter and longer end of the curve, we note a few things here. Firstly, the 10Y-2Y inversion generally leads the 2Y-3M inversion. Secondly, the past 2 times when both sections of the curve were inverted, we saw a significant sell-off in equities happening soon after. Thirdly, the inversions also marked the start of the next leg up for gold. With peak inversion likely to pass for the 10Y-2Y curve and 2Y-3M inversion at the all-time low now, we see some potential to buy Gold and sell Equity Indices, as we’re raised over the past 2 articles! When we use the S&P500 Futures Contract and the Gold Futures contract to view the ratio of the S&P500 / Gold, this ‘Selling’ point becomes clearer! With the past 2 periods falling 59% and 69% respectively and lasting more than 700 days, this trade could take a while to play out, but the risk to reward seems attractive. As to the hypotheses of why this relationship might exist, it could reside in the idea that abrupt rate cuts likely merely take place in a time of financial distress, hence the selloff in equities and flight to safe-haven assets like gold. When rates fall off, the non-yielding assets like Gold would start to look more attractive to yield-hunting investors, which could have added fuel to the Gold rally, too. Taking a conservative target of 35% lower from the current ratio level of 2, we position a short in the S&P 500 / Gold ratio by selling 1 S&P 500 Futures and buying 1 Gold Futures, at the current price of 1980 for CME April 2023Gold Futures (GCJ3) and 4010 for the CME June 2023 (ESM3 ) S&P 500 Futures, the notional value of the position for the long & short leg is almost equal at; Long GCJ3: 1980*100 = 198,000 Short ESM3: 4010 * 50 = 200,500 Setting up such a spread trade requires some monitoring of the difference in notional value to ensure that the position is properly hedged. Each 0.25-point move in the ESM3 contract is equal to 12.5 USD while a 0.1-point move in the GCJ3 contract is equal to 10 USD. Trading this spread would be eligible for a margin offset of up to 70%, meaning that the capital required to set up this trade is much lower. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
TVC:US02YShort
by inspirante
Gold decoupling from stocks is a positive signOn Monday, gold broke above $2 000, making a new high at $2 009.85. Unfortunately, gold erased its gains the next day and plunged as low as $1 934.34. Although this drop did not last long either, and after the FOMC, gold skyrocketed back above $2 000. Currently, it trades near the $1 990 price tag. In the long term, we continue to be bullish on XAUUSD. However, we expect it to remain highly erratic as investors might cash out their profits in order to cover their losses in the stock market (once the selloff speeds up). Therefore, we will closely monitor gold’s price action in the following days; seeing gold decoupling from the stock market will be a positive sign. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also displays simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis Daily = Bullish Weekly = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
21
The 4th Dimension Trading i) 2D = Time / Price = Chart = Technical analysis ii) 2D = Macro or / and Micro or / and other analysis 3D = Combining the above (i) & (ii) 4D = Projected time and price based on the past data and market developments 3 types of gold for trading: • COMEX Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 • E-mini Gold 0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50 • Micro Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
Inflation on 20 years "Borrowed Time"Gold started its rally since 2000. Whereas inflation and interest rates remain low since 2000. Reason for the "Borrowed Time"? Because easy money policy was needed to create: 1) An increase in money supply 2) By lowering its interest rates Purpose for easy money policy? 3 major events after 2000: 1) Middle East War 2) Subprime crisis 3) Covid-19 rescue plan (it tipped in 2020) The after effect of the accumulated easy money policy seem to be at its beginning. Meaning more upside for inflation and interest rates. Meaning Gold to continue its upward momentum. For traders - 3 types of gold for trading: • COMEX Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 • E-mini Gold 0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50 • Micro Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 See the video version below Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!
by konhow
GOLD Key Levels! Analysis! Hello,Traders! GOLD seems unstoppable As it is breaking key levels On it's way up however, We are still guided by the Technical analysis in our Decision making so as Gold Is retesting a resistance we Might see some crrection However, if the current Momentum is kept, We will see a bullish breakout And the next target will be a Powerful resistance at 2060$ Analysis! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TopTradingSignals
4
Gold eyes $2K as yields plunge • Metal hits new high for 2023 • Falling yields and raised financial stability concerns boost appetite for low- and zero-yielding assets • Gold under 6% from all-time high Gold hit fresh record highs in British pounds and Japanese yen terms on Friday. In the standard US dollar terms, the precious metal has risen to a new high for the year above $1960. It was thus $40 shy of reaching the $2K mark and $115 away from reach the all-time peak at $2075 hit in August 2020. To get that additional 6% or so worth of gains, it will probably need another shot in the arm from the Fed next week. Gold has risen nearly 5% on the week, supported by falling interest rate expectations and heightened uncertainty over the banking system. Forget rate hikes, at one point on Friday’s session, the odds of Fed July 25 basis point rate CUT climbed to 88%, no less! Along with gold, we have also seen cryptos making a big comeback this week. It has been a good time for low or zero yielding assets. Cryptos recovered from intense selling pressure last week when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. This week, troubles for Credit Suisse came to the forefront, leading to a bailout by the Swiss National Bank. We have also seen troubles for a couple of other US banks. So, gold and crypto prices have been rallying in part because of heightened uncertainty over the traditional banking system. Meanwhile, China continues to demand more and more gold, suggesting there’s strong physical demand too. Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange totalled 169 tons in February, up by 30 tons month-on-month and 76 tons year-over-year to represent the strongest February for wholesale gold demand since 2014, according to the World Gold Council. Gold demand has risen because of the economic recovery and the release of pent-up demand in China. Gold will need to hold above short-term support at $1935 to maintain a bullish technical bias. A daily close above $1960 would be very ideal for the bulls. For the bears, well, they will need to see a sharp reversal before stepping back in on the short side. So far, we haven’t had any bearish catalysts to trigger a reversal. The key event next week is the Fed’s meeting. So much has happened in recent weeks that there are many question marks as to whether the Fed will hike rates at all at this meeting. The probability of a 50 basis point which was around 70% just a week ago, sunk to zero. The probability of a no hike rose sharply. It looks like the market has settled for somewhere in between: a 25 bp hike. Indeed, according to a Reuters poll, the majority of the respondents reported that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 bps in March, not 50 bps as had been priced in just a week ago. Some 76 of the 82 surveyed economists agreed, while 5 said the Fed will pause. The survey also found that 56 of 64 economists surveyed said the Fed will raise rates to at least 5.00-5.25% in Q2, lower than was recently priced. With not much macro data to come until the FOMC meeting, a lot hinges on financial stability of US banks now. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXcom
Silver will move! Are you ready?Good morning fellow traders With recent bank failures, precious metals have a strong backing in demand, therefore looking for a long swing position makes more than just sense. As Gold is pushing for its 3rd weekly advance, silver has been consolidating firmly around 22 USD. We saw some rejections, one happening yesterday with the rate hikes being priced in by the ECB, yet we still are holding the consolidation. This gives me confirmation that 1. we have resistance at 22 and 2. with pretty erratic bounce-offs, Silver has been recovering every time. Therefore I will be looking for an entry on Silver today, hopefully positioning myself for a Swingg trade on the white metal. Please join me on my trade! Here is my game plan: - Gold needs to trade in the same direction as Silver (I am already long Gold) - Silver needs a clear break above 22 but not pushing up further than 20.30 - We should get a clear move here, yet it should not be a big move - Silver needs to bounce off 22.2 area and retreat to 22 - 22 needs to be held, not much slippage under 22 allowed - Entry upon reclaim of 22 - Target1: 22.60 - Target2: 23 - Stoploss: 21.6 area Smooth execution on this trade could allow you to find an entry swing position that could allow you to get great profits. Be sure that you understand the idea before executing, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to leave a comment or text me directly. Make sure to leave a follow and like if you enjoy my content! Have a good one legends! Best CH
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by TraderCHgold
1
Precious Metals are going places! Hi Traders As we have been seeing very volatile markets in the past week, trading any direction currently is not easy. It is now, more important than ever, to stick to your strategy and do not let yourself be distracted from potential gains you are missing out on. The worst thing you can do to your portfolio is FOMO. Stay cool-headed and trade the obvious. Precious metals are of interest to investors and traders currently due to arising macroeconomic uncertainties that have been evolving over the course of the past 3 years. But also recent news have been filled with a lot of FUD regarding the banking sector in the US, bailouts in a high interest rate environment and many more things happening currently. Crypto but also precious metals have seen fantastic gains since the start of the week, thanks to investor running away from the legacy markets and trying to find more safety in the digital and physical safe havens. As Gold looks quite strong, I will be discussing a potential long trade idea below, please understand that gold is sitting on a strong resistance at 1920 USD that has historically been though to smash through, therefore sticking to the plan will be crucial for execution. Here is my Game Plan for XAUUSD: - Reclaim of 1910 entering range of between 1910 and 1930 - Hold above range for a significant amount of time - Price needs to be trending upwards - Smooth price action is a prerequisite for this trade - Consolidation right under upper half of the violet box - Entry upon break of box - T1 1947 USD - T2 1966 USD - Stop will be disclosed once trade has been entered Trading needs a plan, only a plan can give you orientation. Sticking to the plan means that you will have a reproducible procedure which can be assessed for mistakes and learnings. It is comparable to the scientific approach, the only difference is, a trader is not interested in facts, he is interested in gains. Please make sure to leave a like and a comment if you liked what you have been reading. Also follow me if you like my approach combining macroeconomic news, fundamentals and technical analysis. Have a good one legends Best CH
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by TraderCHgold
Quick Market Scan with some Trade ideasGood evening fellow ones We have been having an interesting start to the week, with precious metals and crypto pumping to new higher highs. In this quick scan, I will be talking about the current market shape and what my thoughts are on market development in the coming days or weeks. We will be covering the following assets: - Gold with an analysis - SP500 with an analysis - Bitcoin input Please make sure to leave a like or comment if you enjoyed this vid. Would be greatly appreciated! All the best CH
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by TraderCHgold
Precious Metals are flying, let me help you find an entryGood morning fellow traders, With Silvergate and the Silicon Valley Bank collapsing last week, the new week will likely bring a lot of FUD and scare-mongering in the markets, fulling further macroeconomic uncertainties. As asset classes have all been trading lower in the past year, inflation is increasing to new all-time highs, and war waging in Ukraine, retail investors have already had a tough time keeping their money safe, now even the banks are collapsing, exposing even the banking sector to market risks. It is tougher than ever to keep your money safe, where do you store your values? Understanding the macroeconomic factors, it makes a lot of sense to look at precious metals, to diversify your portfolio but also for trading. I like to trade in the same direction as the fundamental economic principle of an asset is applied. Precious metals have historically been a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, and with the downfall of Silicon Valley and its flagship banks, there hasn't been a better time to look at the shiny metals. Also, Gold and Silver have been trading in their respective ranges for more than a year now, being oversold as we speak, with all that in mind, let me help you find an entry for this potential trade opportunity! Silver presents itself with more clear entry points than Gold. Here is my Game Plan for Silver: - Further consolidation around the resistance of 20.85 - Clear push above 20.85 and nearly touching 21 - Pullback onto 21.90 - Further consolidation of price between 20.80 and 20.95 - Entry upon price going through 21 - Stop: 20.6 - Target 1: 21.3 - Target 2: 21.9 I will be trying to skim most of my profits on Target 1 as precious metals did not have an easy start into the year and I am not 100% convinced so far that retail investors will panic into precious metals in a big way, for that to happen, we need a big bank going under in my opinion. But we could catch a move of spooked investors trying to save their money from further downside in the legacy markets. With all this FUD in the markets, it is more important than ever to understand why checklists for trading are important to have, they prevent you from entering the market at the wrong moment. Be sure to follow me on my Tradingview for more checklists and ideas coming up this week. Please like, share, and subscribe. Have a great day champions! Best CH
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by TraderCHgold
Side-step a potential storm!Just when we thought the hawkish narrative was pretty much priced in, SVB’s fallout basically threw a spanner into the hiking cycle. You’ve probably read quite a lot about the whole SVB debacle since Thursday’s trading session so we won’t harp on that. We instead want to turn your attention to two other markets that moved significantly since the SVB episode. Interest Rates & Gold. A sharp repricing has occurred in the expected rate path as markets digest the onslaught of SVB-related events. As a result, we saw the probability of a 50bps point hike jump from 30% to 80% and then back down to 20% as of today. Additionally, further rate hikes have also been priced out indicating market’s expectations of a more cautious Fed. Most importantly, the implied aggressive rate cuts starting from the end of 2023 caught our eyes here. As a reminder, the last time the fed paused and then cut rates, Gold responded with a 60% rally. As the potentially lower terminal rate and faster pace of rate cuts narrative begin to pick up momentum, we think Gold deserves more attention now than ever. The next FOMC meeting is only 10 days away. From there, we will get a sense of what the Fed thinks of the current situation. If they start to show signs of retreat from their hawkish stance, we believe it will be a catalyst for this trade. Another point of worry is economic data still coming in hot, at least for now. For those not keeping count, Non-Farm Payrolls numbers have beaten estimates to the upside for the past 11 months as the economy remains unusually strong. With the next set of CPI numbers coming out this Tuesday, a hot print could drive inflation worries further. If the Fed shows signs of easing on the hawkish narrative while Inflation numbers continue to be hotter than expected, higher Inflation expectations could once again drive investors into inflation-protecting assets like Gold. Key volatility gauges have pointed higher over the past few days and major indexes have edged closer to key price and technical levels. Given these, volatility is likely to compound from here as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) potentially flip sides and funds rotate out of the banking sector. In such uncertain times Gold’s status as a safe haven asset could attract flows as investors sidestep the market turbulence. Looking at the price action, Gold still trades well clear of the 500 Day EMA mark which has marked the support for the price action and well clear of the 1800 physiological level. RSI is still middle of the road indicating that there is still room for Gold to run higher. Gold’s relationship with interest rates and position as an inflation-hedge/safe haven asset could very well position it for further upside from here. For now, we think it provides enough upside to sidestep the potentially volatile times ahead. We set our stops near the previous level of support and the 0.618 Fib level, 1755, and our take profit levels at 2065. Each 0.1-point increment in COMEX Gold future is equal to 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by inspirante
1