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Preciousmetals

Gold to shine in 2023?After beating Bitcoin in 2022, many investors wonder whether 2023 is the time for gold to shine. Last year, central banks accumulated 663 tonnes of physical gold in the first three quarters, making it one of the biggest buying sprees among central bankers (even with no data available for Q4 yet). Overall, the gold market experienced a relatively good year compared to the rest of the market, which saw significant declines across the board. Furthermore, the stock market's uncertainty and the prospect of a recession in 2023 helped to drive gold demand substantially higher from the preceding year (2021). As a result, we continue to be bullish on gold. However, we are worried that if the stock market starts selling again, it might put a temporary lid on the price of XAUUSD. In addition to that, large holdings by central banks give them the firepower needed to dampen price increases if necessary. Due to that, we will stay cautious and observe market developments very closely in the coming months. We will be vigilant around FOMC meetings which are planned for the following dates in 2023: January 31 - February 1 March 21 - March 22* May 2 - May 3 June 13 - June 14* July 25 - July 26 September 19 - September 20* October 31 - November 1 December 12 - December 13* (*monetary policy decision) Illustration 1.01 Interestingly, in November 2022, gold returned to the wide range that it constituted in 2021 (and stayed within for the most part of that same year). Then today, it broke above it, which is bullish. We will watch the gold’s ability to hold above the range's upper bound. If gold manages to hold above this level, it will bolster the bullish case for it. Technical analysis Daily = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly = Bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of gold’s RSI. To further support a bullish thesis, we would like to see the RSI resume a rise and break above 70 points. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
20
Silver is gearing for a move up, but is it ready?Silver had a huge move up in 2020, but that was all it managed to do back then. Since its first significant peak in August 2020, it went sideways and started declining. Silver was in a big bear market since 2011, then entered an accumulation range, and then had its capitulation move in March 2020. Then with all the fiscal stimulus, it skyrocketed, but most capital flowed into crypto and stocks, not precious metals. As inflation remains high and interest rates could be near their peak, and investment in metal miners has gone down a lot over the last decade, this precious metal that seems to have lost its shine might be ready to shine again. It looks like silver had a very healthy pullback into the top band of its accumulation range. Now resistance seems to have turned into support, and the market could head toward 24$ in the next few months. The truth is that I don't believe that the market has fully bottomed yet, although it could very well have, and that eventually, it will have on final leg down towards 16$ and bottom there. The main reason I think that has to do with how the market bottom is that there are two double bottoms around 17-18, and there is a little 'gap' at 16. Essentially I would like to see the market test 16$ because I want to see it thoroughly test that untested breakout, the Yearly S3 Pivot, and the Volume Profile Point of Control. Another reason that I think the market will go down there again is that I expect a major deflationary episode to take place in 2023, one that has the potential to create a liquidity squeeze (risk asset collapse) that would affect precious metals too. In my opinion, the current move up in Gold, Copper, Silver, etc., mostly has to do with low production/inventories of metals, while demand seems to have bottomed in the short term. Eventually, the market will get crushed again, but I think the bounce has legs for now. Therefore it would make sense to look for longs in the 16-20$ zone and take profits in the 21.7-24$ area. Shorting 24$ might be a good idea, but I would prefer to watch how the price action develops before I step in.
COMEX:SI1!
by BitcoinMacro
Update on my previous copper ideasDespite Copper falling 38% from its ATHs, we still haven't seen deflation, even though inflation seems to have peaked for now. The inflation story doesn't seem to be over; even inflation moderates and goes close to or below 2%. The big problem right now is that the Copper inventories are extremely low and that the demand for Copper seems to be increasing because of all the green technologies that are being developed. Therefore despite the high-interest rates and the drop in the money supply globally (reduction in overall liquidity, along with a strong dollar), it is possible to see Copper rally higher from here. With the recent drop in the dollar and the potential peak in the USD and short-term interest rates, the market may have bottomed. Of course, this isn't the only reason the market has bottomed. Copper fell a lot, and it hit critical support. They seem to have bottomed at their previous significant highs along with Silver and reversed the upside. I don't think the final bottom is in, although it could be. In my opinion, the market is heading towards 4$ in the short term. Still, in a long time, it is directed towards 2.7$, and maybe even towards 1.6-1.9$ if we get the short-term deflationary collapse, I expect. After the failure, I think new ATHs will come, as Central Banks and Governments globally will print insane amounts of money to save their economies from collapsing.
COMEX:HG1!
by BitcoinMacro
The Gold Odyssey - Down and then Uppish Part IIFrom the last post, I took a second look, and zoomed out a lot more. Then I found another set of reasons for the down and uppish outlook that I can share with everyone... You see, it appears that there is a set of similar technical conditions that occurred in December 2018, that also presented similarly in December 2022. From a recent double top lower high stalling consolidation range, about 7-8 months later, the technical indicators present a similar upside trigger, which includes a breakout above the 23 week EMA, that is accompanied with MACD and VolDiv crossovers. Noted similar up triangle triggers that represent underlying combination of certain technical indicator conditions. Furthermore, at the current time, it can be well expected that the price action should be checking in with the 23 week EMA before the real bullish rally launch. Now, this may take till May to form up and then launch. So heads up, watch MAy 2023 for Gold prices to rally.
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!KOG Report: In last week’s KOG Report we said we wanted to the price push up in the early part of the week and we would be looking at the resistance levels of 1806-10 and above that the 1825-30 region. These are the levels we suggested opportunities to short the market could be taken from. We said the ideal scenario would be for the price to push up into the resistance levels and we wanted to see a bearish engulfing candle formed to then take us down into the lower support levels as our targets. As you can see from the chart, we tapped into the higher resistance level, got the bearish engulfing just as planned and got our tap and bounce from the 1785 level. Well done to those who followed and capitalised on the moves and analysis given. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? Again, as we’re drawing close to the end of the year, we’re taking our foot off the peddle and will be trading this lighter than usual. We’ll keep the report short but will illustrate the potential move as we usually do. We will stick with the same chart and use the same key levels as we have been for most of this month. The resistance levels are unchanged, however, we have added a new support level of around 1770-73 which could be a potential tap and bounce in the week ahead! For now, we will be looking for the price to stay below that 1806-10 region, and as long as it does we feel there will be an opportunity to short the market from there down into the lower support regions starting at 1785 and below that 1775. Please note, if the price breaks and holds above that 1810 level then it is likely we will see them grab the liquidity from higher, in which case the support regions are there to be bought. The ideal scenario for us is for this to come down, swoop the low and give us an opportunity to get in on the long trade to carry this up towards the 1830-35 price point where again we feel there is likely to be a reaction in price. This now gives you the overall range for the week which we feel the price can play in along with the levels to look for to take your entries and exits. We’ll be tracking Excalibur and will let that guide us through the markets giving us fine tuned targets across numerous pairs. Wishing you a successful week ahead. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
12
Gold beats SPX, NAS100, DJIA, and Bitcoin in 2022Despite seven interest rate hikes in 2022, gold is down only about 1% for the year. That shows the strong resilience of gold against a backdrop of the slowing economy, cryptocurrency bear market, and still relatively strong U.S. dollar. In fact, gold has outperformed the Standard & Poor 500 index, Nasdaq 100 index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Bitcoin. Performance (year to date) Gold (YTD) = -1.1% DJIA (YTD) = -9.8% SPX (YTD) = -20% NDX (YTD) = -32.3% Bitcoin (YTD) = -63.6% Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. Yellow arrows indicate particular FED rate hikes throughout the year. In 2022, gold has seen record demand from central banks, amounting to 663 tonnes in the first three quarters. Interestingly, buying from these institutions shows a growing trend in the first nine months of 2022. Accumulation by central banks The first quarter = 84 tonnes. The second quarter = 180 tonnes. The third quarter = 399 tonnes. However, investment demand for gold declined 47% year over year in the third quarter of 2022. Despite that, in 3Q22 retail investors continued to make bullion purchases, boosting retail demand 36% higher from the third quarter of 2021. Meanwhile, during that same time, jewelry demand returned to its pre-pandemic levels, showing growth of 10% year over year. As for our stance on gold, we continue to be bullish in the long term. Although we are worried that if the stock market selloff continues, it might put a temporary lid on the price of gold. Indeed, it might get hammered down with the rest of the market, just like on previous occasions. Therefore, we are very cautious until we see signs of decoupling between the two. Technical analysis Daily = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
8
$XAU - Gold - Where to next?!$XAU - Gold - Where to next?! We've got whole load of US Data and ECB as well, this could play either direction Currently we are within this pattern in play, you could even think of it as H&S brewing. This morning its a DXY move, we've had majors decline and precious metals. This could decline further if the bears gain further control. However, if we go above the highs then bulls are back in control. Trade Your Plan! Trade Journal Not Investment Advice
FX:XAUUSD
by Trade_Journal