Trading With Harbmayg: Ep. 2PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
1. Mode! via 4H
Which mode is the market currently in?
—Buy Mode!
2. Execute! via 15M
Entry— 2674.48
SL— 2673.48
TP— 2704.48
Preciousmetals
S&P500 vs Gold in 1970sWe’re hearing a lot of talk about how today’s economic environment is similar to the 1970s, and in many ways, that’s true. Back then, we had runaway inflation and monetary shock, just like in the 2020s.
In recent years, we’ve seen two major shocks:
1) First, the inflation spike following the COVID lockdowns and the reckless stimulus packages.
2) Second, the accelerating demand for gold. Central banks started stockpiling gold over a decade ago, but after the U.S. weaponized the dollar in 2022, that trend exploded. It’s not just BRICS nations; countries all over the world are scrambling to increase their gold reserves. No one wants to be left holding the bag when the next currency crisis hits.
If we’re on the verge of Gold regaining its rightful place as the anchor of global financial reserves, the repricing of PreciousMetals is going to be enormous. In fact, it will completely overshadow the returns of stock indices, just like it did in the 1970s. After the Nixon shock, gold skyrocketed, and while the S&P 500 rose in nominal terms, it was obliterated when measured against gold.
Maybe this time the magnitude of this move will be smaller, who knows? What matters is that stock market returns alone are not the ultimate measure of success. What truly counts are the returns relative to real-world-assets.
#Silver near the end of wave 3 of 5 of 3 From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that the price has formed wave 3 in an impulsive bullish move. Therefore, we can anticipate a bearish corrective move to complete wave 4.
Based on the principle of alternation, since wave 2 was a sharp correction, wave 4 could potentially be a more prolonged, time-consuming corrective phase. This suggests that the upcoming wave 4 correction may develop as a more complex or sideways movement before resuming the uptrend for wave 5.
It's important to note that bullish move is still on. However, we may now see a bearish corrective move.
Metals bull run has legs - Silver is gaining momentum!The gold-to-silver ratio is a key signal—a roadmap, if you will—showing us where we are in the cycle of precious metals. Gold typically takes the lead, but then, like clockwork, silver catches up, and fast. In recent months, we’re seeing that exact shift—silver is gaining momentum.
We’re entering a phase where silver is primed to outperform over the next several months. The first conservative target? $44.3. But here’s the thing—if BRICS nations decide to step in, if they start stacking silver too, I believe we could be looking at a price much, much higher by the time this move plays out. Buckle up—this could be big.
GOLD Short-Medium-Long Term analysisGold is in a different stage than it has been for over a decade.
After a consolidation from the massive 2000-2011 bull run, GOLD has broken out of its 13 year Cup and Handle.
Longs will witness a historical move as this only happens every several decades.
Few and far between, metals bull markets come rarely, but when they do, nothing beats it.
Watch for details.
Platinum LONG TERM analysisLong term TA on PL1!
1) Shorter term expectations/price target
2) Relationship to gold and silver
3)Longer term patterns and eventual price targets on a yearly timeframe.
Sorry if this was longwinded. Will begin to post weekly updates so consider this a comprehensive analysis to precede, shorter, brief, weekly analyses.
Feedback is recommended, please enjoy - I hope somebody can get something from this and I can learn as well with feedback.
Future videos will include actual trades with entries and near term targets. Feel free to let me know how helpful/unhelpful this might have been.
GTTA
Time to Ride the #Silver Wave!!! +12% potential PROFITIt doesn't get easier than this.
We have a bullish daily t@m expiring on Oct 3rd.
Targets of $33.5 and $35.2
Entry at low $31's
Stop at $30.6
Gold & Silver Have Confirmed An Attempt To New ATHsWatch this video to understand how Fibonacci Price Theory suggests Gold & Silver are moving in a bullish price trend - attempting to break recent resistance levels.
I believe Gold and Silver will continue to rally, reflecting global capital risk factors, and break to new ATHs before the end of 2024.
My target for Gold by Dec 31, 2024 is $3030-$3250.
My target for Silver by Dec 31, 2024 is $34.5-$37.50.
Here we go.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold Washout Low/Excess Phase Peak #3 Setup - Get ReadyThis short video highlights why I believe Gold is building a base near $2640 for a big rally move up to $2760++.
Yes, I highlight some concerns in this video.
I expected Gold to move more aggressively to the upside over the last 36 hours, but this is trading. Everything doesn't work out perfectly in all instances.
If you are trading Gold, this video should help you understand what is happening on the price chart and why it is so important for Gold to build a base and move higher from these lows.
If Gold breaks below $2620, all bets are off, and we may see a broader breakdown. But I don't think that is likely to happen with this move.
I still see the $2780 level as the upper target.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold Shakeout - Fed Comments/UD-Dollar - Rally TimeGold saw a huge shakeout this morning, as the Fed commented, and the move in the US dollar put some extreme pressure on metals.
The funny thing is this move ended almost as fast as it started - and now metals are rallying again.
Why?
The Fed is trying to transition into a more global friendly position - allowing foreign nations to become more competitive with the US Dollar. China recently went ALL IN on a resurgence economy - betting the US Fed is going to move towards more Dovish rate cuts. This bet may be the downfall of China if the Fed changes direction near the end of 2025.
The US dollar is still the biggest, badest currency on the planet. As Gold rises while the US Dollar rises - you are seeing global traders attempt to hedge global risk factors in precious metals while the US Dollar/Economy continues to be the 900lb Gorilla of the world's economies.
Things could get very interesting through the US election. Sit tight - buckle up and prepare for some very big moves in the markets over the next 60-90+ days.
Get some.
GOLD --- When Breakout? $2700 Target remains in place. The war against sound money...
keeping a "lid" on the price of the worlds biggest asset
and truly the only real collateral in the world.
Is being slowly lost.
We have a continuation head and shoulders that many people are watching.
But something to note
Is that the previous times #Gold has traded above 2 thousand dollars
The smackdown has been quick and violent.
If you noice in the past few weeks,
the compression of price ,
and the consecutive number of weekly closes above 2k.
Is the most it has ever been.
Are the Bankers ready to let it run...
since they seem to be pumping up all assets prices for the 2024 election.
I think the ramp up to 2.7k could be quite violent... do we get there by summer?
Bullish on Gold and Silver | Long-Term As I mentioned in the previous post on DXY, my bias on the US Dollar index is bearish for the first half of September. Also, as the seasonality of Gold and Silver suggests, September is a negative month for these two cousins. So, in my opinion (not investment advice), in the last week of September and the first week of October, we might see good lows on Gold and Silver.
Remember, we cannot time the market, for now, I anticipate the lows to form at the end of September because the seasonality and the price action support this narrative for me. Also, the market is expecting the first rate cut on September 18, which, I believe, Gold and Silver already priced in that sentiment to some degree.
We can expect Gold to go as low as 2450$ before it attacks 2600$, and silver to revisit the 25$ - 26$ area after 4 months (the red scenario). I like the chart formation on Silver as it formed a very bullish structure on monthly and weekly charts. That's why I also put the yellow scenario which suggests Silver would dance around the 28$ level before it breaks out the 30$ and continue its journey towards 36$.
Gold (XAUUSD): Swing-Chart-Analyse UpdateWe are now covering Gold (not Barrick Gold) but the commodity. Gold prices are broadly stable after the latest breakout of the consolidation range but still trading at record highs, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and prospects of a long-awaited interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee is now expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points when it ends its two-day meeting on Wednesday afternoon. The CME Fedwatch tool now sees a 65% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, with a 35% chance of a 25 point cut. A week ago, the tool showed a 70% chance for the smaller drop.
Looking at it from a technical perspective we can clearly observe the first consolidation range where after its breakout we wanted to bid the retest but couldn't get the entry right and it was going without us. By being invested in the gold mining company, Barrick Gold, we still participated in some kind of this gold rush 🚀
We have now built a smaller but very similar consolidation range and again got the breakout to the upside, which is picture-perfect. If our count is correct, we are about to finish what seems to be Wave ((v)) & 5. We anticipate these two ends to find their top between the 50-60% Fibonacci extension level, which translates to ~2600-2671$. After that, we want to see a structure shift into the bearish structure, and we are going to bid this Wave (4), but until then, we have to wait until we can anticipate this Wave (4) more surely.
Stay tuned for more 🤝
SILVER | THE BIGGEST CUP & HANDLE OF ALL TIME!Apple’s Cup and Handle pattern in the early 2000s is often cited as one of the most significant. After a prolonged downtrend, Apple formed a large cup with a handle from 2000 to 2005, which, after breaking out, has continued to appreciate to this very day. However, Apple's pattern is nothing compared to the current Cup & Handle pattern that exists in silver, whether in size or price.
I truly believe that silver is currently the most undervalued asset and will not only attain higher prices than most can imagine but will also rapidly begin to appreciate against gold, which currently has a ratio of 83.75 to 1. This ratio is irrational and unsustainable, as gold and silver are typically mined at a ratio of around 10 to 1. Even current U.S. Treasury Mint coins—Silver Eagles and Gold Eagles—have a current exchange rate of 50 to 1 at face value. Historically, under the gold standard and the Coinage Act of 1834, the ratio was set at 16 to 1.
Although this will not happen overnight and could take a decade or more to come to fruition, the unnatural and irrationally low price of silver is coming to an end. The overinflated gold-to-silver ratio will continue to fall as price manipulation ends and true price discovery begins.
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for the price to start by attempting the higher resistance 2510-15 and based on the flip we would see an opportunity to short back down into the 2480-85 region. It was here that we suggested traders look for the set up to go long and target the higher levels again, which worked very well for us, both down and up. We then released the NFP KOG Report and gave the levels we would be looking to either long or short into, and on the flip look for the reaction in price. We managed to get a move into that higher level, completing our Excalibur targets and then getting the RIP from that level all the way back down into where we closed on Friday. Some traders even managed to get the long from the order region market bullish above, which should have been protected and partials taken.
Another great week in Camelot not only on Gold but US30 giving us a pin point level to level move for a phenomenal short, as well as all the other pairs we trade performing well.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
For this week we’re going to keep it simple to start the week! We’re still in the range and price is still accumulating so we can’t get to concerned here with the longer-term direction, we’ll simply have to play the chart with what It’s presenting us.
The ideal scenario here is we see price attempt an undercut low and then start the incline into the higher levels 2505 and above that 2510-15 again. Therefore, key level support is sitting at the 2480-85 region, and our bullish above bias will still stand for this week based on that attempt to break above that 2515 price mark. If we fail here, the swing will continue to play, and we should see price attempt to break below the 2485 region and attempt to attack the order region 2450-55 which is where we feel the ideal position trade will come from.
As above, 2510-15 is a key level resistance here as breaking this level will lead to further gains on gold with that 2530-35 region again as the target level for the week.
KOG’s Bias for the week:
Bullish above 2485 with targets above 2510, 2515 and above that 2530
Bearish on the break of 2485 with targets below 2477 and below that 2465
As always, we will update traders through the week with our plans, KOG’s bias of the day and the Red Box strategy whenever we can.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for the high to confirm which worked well, to then short into the lower support levels which we got nearly to the pip. We then said we would long looking for price to attempt the ATH to finish off the week, this move completed half way. During the week, we said traders should look for an undercut low which was again achieved and gave us another opportunity to long back up. On Thursday we suggested traders protect trades and take a majority as price seemed to struggle at resistance. Fortunately, that was the perfect time as we then witnessed the attempt at rage low again which is where we closed.
A fantastic week on not only gold, but the numerous other pairs we trade hitting targets and completing another phenomenal month in Camelot.
So, what can we expect from the week ahead?
For this week we have to keep in mind we’re still in that range and price is accumulating. That entails these swings up and down as they’re simply gathering orders before a potential breakout. We have a US Holiday tomorrow so volume during that session should be low and on Friday we have NFP, so we can expect a lot of movement Tuesday into Thursday pre-event.
We’ve plotted the potential range we feel price may play but that’s based on it remaining below the 2515 region. Ideally, on open we would like to see this attempt the resistance level and fail, if that is confirmed, we feel an opportunity to short into the lower support levels are available with the initial level being 2480-85.
It’s these lower levels we want to monitor as the tap and bounces can come from below if reached taking this back up. We have to be mindful this week due to NFP which is likely to cause the whipsaw, and if they do want to attack that ATH again, we feel this is when it come.
Please keep an eye out for KOG’s bias of the day together with the red boxes we share. These have proved to help traders in stay the right side of the markets and work extremely well with the target levels we post across all the pairs we trade.
We’ll say this report is applicable until mid-week, we’ll then prepare for NFP.
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bearish below 2515 with target below 2485
Bullish on break of 2515 with target above 2540
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Why they want to 'shake' you out of Gold-accumulation! See below
Please see the Cup & Handle formations for Gold below on 4HR, Daily & even the mammoth on the Monthly chart.
Why they are trying to shake you out of your long positions in Precious-metals.
Stick to the higher time-frames guys & you won't lose sight of the bigger picture for Gold. See the high time-frames for XAU USD above and below.
I see better opportunity in Silver next week as it's not as overbought as Gold currently, plus Silver's sell-off from about a month ago was far deeper than Gold's due to Silvers bearish technicals on the charts.
Wishing you a safe and happy weekend and get your mind off trading, like I should be.
I will more than likely be back (Australia time) to trade Mondays New York session with you. But I commence much earlier in the Oceania Asian sessions. Yes I confess, I overtrade.
* Trading is risky. Please don't rely solely on my financial advice.
Update on XAU USD market-structure. See chart below please.
On the important 1HR timeframe and critical 50 EMA where it gets most of its support and cues from, for the 5 hours it has still had this support despite some bouncing around and increased volatility on the lower timeframes.
Mr Powell addresses at 10am NY time and New Home sales we would like a bearish figure and an upbeat Mr Powell who probably is a bit anxious the past few weeks.
Enjoy your trading today.
We have some bullish heads n shoulders patterns that may execute later. I think it might be a profitable day for you (I mean night for me). Stay tuned.
Regards,
Chris
Friday 23, N.Y Gold & USDX: Very very interesting...See charts!
Happy Friday guys, I was tired & late getting into the Asian session earlier. But as soon as I locked-horns with my 42" monitor I saw that Gold & Silver were in a mild upside rally. I soon took a long position & recommended one for you in Silver which was rallying stronger than gold.
The gold price struggled at resistance from 2490 to 2500, not strong resistance at 2490 but volume is always lighter in the Asian session. We quickly booked a profit, I am hoping you did as everything happened so fast in a Long trade which only lasted 40 minutes or so. What happened next? Plz read on below.
I saw that price kept getting rejected at the 20 EMA on the lower-time-frame. I decided to go Short & I recommended a very small lot-size Sell-stop below where price was I think from memory my Sell-stops were around 2489 or thereabouts. Next, I distracted myself on another project on the 'hotcopper' forum with a bullish lithium company I am very heavily invested in called Raiden Resources RDN is the ticker, if you want to check it out, I will never sell Stock trades but this thing is looking good, but you google the stories on Raiden Resources if you wish.
So, I had no Stops on my Short because I generally do not like Stops because I find 9 times out 10 the Market-Makers will hunt your stop down so that Mr & Mrs Market-Maker make their big fat wealthy private bank clients wealthier. Maybe that's a bit harsh, but I often wonder.
So the Gold price found support because I took my eye off the field & forgot to book profits and the Gold price started to properly find support and some strength above 2490.
Guys, that is enough on that. Look what concerns me in Friday trading are these bullish Head 'n' Shoulders patterns & on multiple timeframes. We are still about 0.31% from the trigger line & look they probably won't play out today, but what about next week? If the USDX does turnaround next Monday & it certainly could do that because it is very oversold on the Stochastics. However, the path of least resistance for the USDX is further down because it's below its moving averages & how many bloody times do we go Long & then close out of the trade & look at a higher-time-frame & exclaim to ourselves, 'I am an idiot the trend was down / the path of least resistance was down - Why did I go Long'. I used to do it all the time when I was a very green, greedy & gullible trader. Well I still get greedy!
I will monitor these H & S's on the ASDX.
I see where the boss speaks today, The Fed Chair, Mr Powell at 10am Eastern Time USA & Canada and we also have another chat from FOMC member Bostic. My feeling is that Mr Powell has maybe felt a bit anxious lately & he may give our market a bit of a boost today by reiterating the theme of interest rate reduction(s) next month which of course will bode well for Gold & Precious Metals in general.
Further on the Economic Calendar today, we have Building Permits at 08:30am & then New Home Sales at 10am, the latter having a bit more weight and bearing on our trading. Unless you are looking to Short the Gold price today, with our 2 speakers hopefully talking up an interest rate reduction & if the other 2 mentions on the economic calendar come in a bit bearish then this will be poor or the USD but more than likely supportive of the Gold price and getting back above 2500, which I think is where the 50EMA sits on the 1 HR Chart.
So recapping, my feeling is that today will be bullish for Gold depending on New Home Sales mostly but Mr Powell's endorsements rate reductions for the US economy commencing next month will shrug off any bearishness in the Gold price.
In addition to the Head 'n' Shoulders patterns for the USDX (see the 1st set of charts), I have scouring Precious Metals searching for other H & S's patterns so I will be posting these charts so that you have a road-map for the possibility of taking these H & S trades which are predominately bullish ones, I will post these below very soon & I have tradingview alerts set for when price gets near the neckline.
Cheers,
Chris
Gold $GC $GLDNice SCTR score and retrace to the 1HR fib. Has already bounced. SET:GC targets 2563/78 on this move.
Will Gold Hit $3,000 with Fed Rate Cuts and Geopolitical Risks?Gold has outperformed the broader U.S. stock market this year, with analysts predicting further gains as the Federal Reserve nears rate cuts. Gold surged to a new record high of over $2,500 per ounce, and some experts forecast it could reach $3,000 next year. Key drivers include potential Fed easing, geopolitical uncertainties, and increased demand from central banks diversifying away from the U.S. dollar. As interest rates decline, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset continues to grow.
$XAU | Watchlist | Sell Limits |Technical Confluences:
- Stochastics is very close to Overbought conditions in D1 timeframe
- Price is close to the 161% Fibo Extension Line
- Projection using Elliot Wave count is pointing that the price may push up towards the Fibo Extension Line
Fundamental Confluences:
- With ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel & Iran, there is a pressure for XAU to remain supported
- The reversal carry trade story may have legs to further push XAU up another leg as a safe haven
- With incoming FED cuts, there is potential for a weaker USD coming into September
- The above 3 points are the supporting for a higher XAU price.
- Assuming we hit the Wave 3 projected price, the US election will pose a big risk to the global outlook and may see USD strengthen back during that period. A stronger USD may induce a weaker XAU.
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Will be placing Sell Limit orders and update if the projection comes true.
Remember, DYOR.
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BTC/USDT IN THE CHANNEL AND BTC NOT FAR FROM 62K LEVELWe are checking the trend for the next target up 62K, we did an update before about the correction that is already done and BTC looks positive for the next increase target.
With this update, we did expect before the correction and already it did gain
BTC is in the channel zone and can make any time new volume up 62K
With this update, we did add the possibility that BTC will enter 62K
For now, we expect there is a high chance BTC will visit again the 62K level soon.
BTC already opened an important new cycle trend. We saw that before cycle activation, BTC increased further.
If we can meet a new strong volume coming time, then BTC will able to target up to 63K
The volume of the moment is stable, but it is not the main volume.
There is always a chance BTC will look for liquidity below the price actions, but the chance will stay high will target below liquidity or direct liquidity.
