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Preciousmetals

Not a silver lining.Silver is special as it is both an industrial and precious metal. So, let’s look at Silver from both points of view to identify what seems to be dimming the shine on this metal. As a precious metal, we can compare silver with the dollar and yield as both affect the demand for precious metals. Dollar and silver are generally negatively correlated, with a stronger dollar leading to weaker silver. In the chart below, we see this relationship at play until the start of February 2022, when it started to weaken. It seems the effect of a rapidly strengthening dollar has not been reflected in the prices of silver and we expect this gap to close, resulting in lower silver prices. The 10-year yield also provides us with a reference to understand where silver might trade at. A high yield environment is often considered headwind for precious metals as investors prefer holding yield-generating assets in such periods. In the chart below, we see can observe the roughly negative relationship between yields and silver, with periods of lower rates showing higher silver prices and vice versa. With the Federal Reserve indicating that they are still not done with the rate hikes to combat inflation, silver might take a dent in upcoming rate hikes. Secondly, we can look at business and consumer confidence to gauge the potential demand for silver as an industrial metal. Generally, higher business and consumer confidence indicate expansionary periods, which translate to higher demand for industrial metals. With the University of Michigan consumer confidence index at a low and United States Business Confidence Index turning lower, such negative outlook will slow demand for silver as a form of industrial metal, potentially adding resistance to prices. On the technical front, silver is sitting right on the 19-dollar level, which has acted as a key support & resistance level over the past 10 years. An attempt to breach this level a few weeks ago was rejected and prices are now back to retest this support. On a shorter timeframe, we also see silver in a descending channel pattern indicating a downwards continuation pattern. With the dollar strengthening, higher yields, and downbeat business and consumer confidence, the macro backdrop for silver does not look rosy. Overlaying that with the bearish technical price action, we think Silver is likely to struggle. Entry at 18.960, stops at 20.160. Targets at 16.620. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by inspirante
17
The Gold Odyssey - a different story emergesPreviously, since Donald Trump started the US-China trade war, Gold has been on a clear trend forming a Cup & Handle pattern in the weekly chart. This was covered in earlier posts with decent accuracy, until recently. It appears that the Gold volatility is significantly heightened, to the extent that the the Handle may have been broken. The weekly Gold chart shows many recent support failures, especially since April 2022. The past week appears to have failed breaking above the weekly 55EMA, and clocked a long bearish marubozu-like bearish candle that closed below the support range. Although the technical indicators are still looking somewhat less bearish, the weeks to come look bad for Gold really. The daily chart shows similar patterns of breakdown, with a resistance failure, from a lower high that came from a Bearish Engulfing pattern. This followed through for the week where the 55EMA was again broken down. Technical indicators appear bearish too, especially with the MACD crossing under zero. Gold is not going to do well for a while, so listen to what the charts are saying... very clear bearish message. Look for 1700.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Auguraltrader
XAUUSD Bearish PressureAs you see in the 4H chart, XAUUSD was moving in an ascending parallel channel and after rising to 1807 which was the highest price for it in the past few days, price could not grow more and failed to reach the the channel’s upper band in its last upside move and dropped sharply. Currently, we can see the downside pressure on price and it is trying to break the channel’s lower band. There is a support level around 1783 which has pushed the price for several times in the past but it doesn’t seem to be strong. If price breaks the red support zone around 1783 and closes a bearish candle below this level, I expect more drop on XAUUSD towards the next support area which would be around 1772-1769
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Mahtab_Tradia
7
XAUUSD: Wedge PatternAs you see in the 4H time frame, price is in an uptrend and has made a higher high and a higher low. Currently, price is moving in a rising wedge and is moving towards the resistance level at 1795. If price breaks the resistance level and closes a bullish confirmation candle in lower time frame (1H) above this level, I expect more rise on XAUUSD towards the next resistance level around 1811. On the other side, if price gets rejected from 1795 and closed a bearish candle below this level, since rising wedges usually broken out to the downside, we can expect a drop on price towards the support levels at 1765 and 1755.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Mahtab_Tradia
5
Gold & Silver Reaching A Launchpad with Currencies (like 2003)Many traders believe the current setup in Gold/Silver is similar to 2018 or 2015. But the reality is this is more similar to 1999~2003 with a strong US Dollar and weakening global currencies. As long as Gold/Silver continue to strengthen while the US Dollar stays strong, foreign currencies will weaken and wreak havoc on foreign markets. Eventually, the risk levels will increase in foreign markets which will send FEAR skyrocketing. That will move capital into Gold/Silver and break the channel/trends that are currently in place. I believe we are very close (possibly 2 to 4+ months away) from that breaking point. Watch global Emerging Markets and foreign governments for signs of collapse. These will be the early warning signs that Gold/Silver are "T-minus 10". Once the US Dollar peaks/turns, we'll be at "T-minus 3". At that point, everything will be ALL SYSTEMS GO for Gold & Silver. Pay attention. This is a huge setup for precious metals.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
1
Silver's wicked Dragonfly DojiAfter, over 500 days of a series of lower highs and lower lows, Silver has printed a text book dragonfly doji on the 1 month chart. This is a Bullish reversal candle when found at the bottom of a down trend but there are a few rules to a Dragonfly Doji: ✅ The candle closes & opens at or damn near the same price. Preferably at the exact same level, but it’s not 100% necessary. ✅ The lower wick (shadow) is very long. ✅ The upper wick is absent or close to non-existing. Looking at chart, all 3 boxes are checked perfectly but thats not always enough. We need confluence in order to reduce false signals. Trading a candlestick pattern alone can give poor results to your trades. Dojis pair well with volatility indicators such as Bollinger Bands or the ADX DI, when reacting to support, moving averages and even FIB levels. If you put the 50MA on the chart you will notice that sellers pushed the price down into market structure where it held, and price action wicked back above the 50MA to close as support. Silver also found support on the lower Bollinger Band. On a side note, Silver had closed 12 of the last 14 weekly candles as red but also printed a MASSIVE Bullish Engulfing candle on the weekly. If the next candle closes below the low of the Dragonfly, this invalidates the signal. When using the Dragonfly Doji to trade, enter at the close of the candle for confirmation, look for the next resistance level to take profit and move your stop loss up as the trade grows. As stated in a previous post, I do not trade paper metals, I simply use the charts to try and time better entires to stack physical metals. Which I did at 18.65 :) With the state of the market and economy, Pm's may be in for quite the rally once the world is willing to admit we are in a recession. Im stoked on this pattern and cant wait to see how the August candle closes. Do you trade or stack silver?
TVC:SILVERLong
by jlouvierobv
Silver analysis: bear market rally and what lies aheadSilver has risen by 11% in the last two weeks. This performance comes after losing about 30% since March 8, indicating a so-called bear-market rally. The main macro driver behind the silver price recovery has been a sharp drop in US bond yields, with the 1 0-year yield falling to 3-month lows at 2.6%, its lowest level since April, as the market now expects the Fed to be more dovish because of the recession. From a technical standpoint, silver is approaching an important area of technical resistance in the $20.5-20.6 range, which includes the 50-day moving average, which has been trading above the metal's prices for more than three months. This area was also the support level in May, which was then breached in late June, resulting in a sharp selloff. The significant rebound from the lower line of the major descending channel indicates a positive short-term price momentum for silver , with the RSI breaking above 50 for the first time since April 20th. An overshoot above $20.7, and then above the psychological level of $21, would provide the bulls with additional confidence. Then, $22-22.3 (May/June resistance & February-April support) provides an important resistance area, where some stronger seller pressure could appear. However, as long as prices do not decisively exceed the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $22.6 and the 200-dma at $22.9, the broader silver's picture remains tilted to the bearish side. Looking ahead, silver's strong correlation with safe-haven gold – which is currently close to one – is a positive factor if recession fears continue to fuel speculation on a dovish Fed. In contrast, if the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy despite the recession, this might keep silver prices relatively contained (below $22.5) for longer. Analysis by Capital.com's forex and metals analyst Piero Cingari
TVC:SILVER
by Capitalcom
Silver possible will Bull soon Hey guys, this is part of my post earlier explaining the bigger picture and what we could be seeing till the end of the year into 2023. Gold and silver are both bouncing on previous support lines and after the next sell-off in the equity markets, we could see a double bottom solidifying the bottom for now and see precious metals bull hard maybe back up to the highs of this year before the next inflation cycle downturn early next year. This idea is supported by the pattern with the AUD - USD, if you compare Silver with AUD they track perfectly so is a great indicator of precious metals markets (chart below). DXY and yields falling also support this idea.
TVC:SILVERLong
by jackwheeler