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Preciousmetals

GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% Gold, 75% Cash. *The Head and Shoulders formation is currently completing as the 50 MA crosses under the 200 MA (Death Cross). Gold, Oil, USD, Treasuries, Crypto and Equities are all either up or flat; this is indicative of a broader reversal in market sentiment regarding recessionary fears. Both Fed Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said they expect a 75bps rate hike in July followed by at least 50bps in September and then potentially 25bps thereafter because financial markets and the economy are both responding to the rates hikes appropriately thus far; they also both suggested that recession fears are overblown, which prompted almost all markets to rally. Considering that the Fed largely operates off of lagging data, it would be prudent to assume that inflation may not have peaked quite yet; that said, it's advised to continue to be vigilant as the bottom continues to be found.* Price is currently completing a H&S breakdown and is testing $1742 minor support after also breaking down out of the uptrend line from April 2020 (~$1800). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1800, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 28 while testing 27 support; the next resistance is the uptrend line from April 2013 at 36. Stochastic is currently resisting a test of max bottom as it crosses over bullish at 25. MACD broke down below -11 support and is currently trending down at -25 with no signs of trough formation; the next support is at -39. ADX is currently trending up at 21 as Price continues to break down, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to bounce here at $1742 and continue up, it will likely test $1784 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest $1684 major support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1748.
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by dailytaguy
Gold Fractals Align - Could See A HUGE Price Swing HigherCycles & Fractals are aligning for an aggressive move higher in Gold & Silver. If my research is correct, a similar fractal is setting up right now compared to the one from the GFC (2008-2011). I believe we are at a peak in the Gold/Silver ratio and we could see an aggressive move downward in this ratio over the next 6~18+ months - sending Gold and Silver MUCH HIGHER. Follow my research and learn to protect and grow your wealth. There are still decent stocks/ETFs to trade - but now is the time to be SUPER CAUTIOUS. Gold/Silver/Bonds should begin to move higher as FEAR takes over the markets.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
2
Dr Copper is telling us deflation is comingAt the beginning of June I put out an idea about shorting Copper . The market didn't do me the favor to get up to my entry, as I ignored past resistance. Probably got a little greedy too. Currently copper is sitting at support and could bounce up to 4$, maybe even up to 4.25$. However in the long term, I see it go much much lower. In my opinion we are in a global recession, and probably even in a global depression. As interest rates and energy costs have risen rapidly, the demand for many things has gone down. We haven't seen the full effects of too much debt + lockdowns + WW3 + not enough energy production yet, but we are getting there. Copper going down is just the first step, and this could turn really really ugly. The 2006-2008 top on Copper looks pretty similar to this one. Huge rally up, consolidation, attempt to breakout, failure, massive collapse. This time around we had a shorter cycle due to the lockdowns + stimulus + low rates + ESG , but this situation is truly reversing. We have no lockdowns, no stimulus, high rates and the ESG movement is clearly losing steam. Overall volume is low and that's a sign that demand for Copper isn't all that high. It was mostly supply being low, and not demand being high. So how low could we go? The truth is that for some time this could be a bottomless pit. However, I believe the bottom will come in the 1.5-1.9 area, as the market needs to sweep the double bottom at 1.9. In terms of technical analysis this is the area anyone should be targeting. Once we get there, we could see a swift reversal as the Fed and all central banks are forced to cut rates and print money once again, in order to save the system from collapsing. They are stuck between a rock and hard place, and although they are doing their best to fight inflation now, they will soon be trying to fight deflation.
COMEX:HG1!
by BitcoinMacro
$XAUUSD: Huge reward to risk bottom signal...$I'm long PMs as of today, Silver and Gold acting strong after a weekly down trend expired recently. As per my long term yearly chart data, both $XAUUSD and $XAGUSD show long term uptrend signals active and are attractive to rejoin that potential scenario being oversold into support, while short term charts progressively turn bullish from daily upwards. Weekly had a signal which will expire next week and implies a potential mean reversion move towards $1927+ within the span of 6 weeks or less. The daily timeframe turned bullish today, reversing the recent weakness seen since March 8th when metals peaked. Select gold and silver mining stocks look very appealing with low valuations once again ($GFI, $SBSW, $PAAS, $AU, as well as $SCCO and $FCX to name a few). Decent opportunity to go long with low risk vs potential upside in the case of a stagflationary scenario or a scenario where real rates stop going up or come down over time. which seems likely given demographics and fundamentals. For instance, the adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles to resolve climate change and potentially address the energy crisis at hand could serve as a tailwind for precious and base metals and mining stocks in general. Long term investments can be done with funds that we can afford to lose or see cut in half to hold for long as necessary to let this trend play out, the trend in $XAUUSD is also a great short term trade, from where we can hold long exposure with big size, while risking small given the tight stop that is possible here at the signal invalidation. Long term positions are better done with physical gold and silver ETFs and/or mining stocks to buy metals in the ground, rather than dealing with futures or CFDs and their carry. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
1
Copper rallying hardCopper bounced very hard off the Yearly Pivot, however it doesn't look ready for a new sustainable rally. Maybe this bounce had something to do with a fundamental catalyst, but nothing to do with the bull market resuming. To me the market is in a very clear distribution phase, and it simply bounced after taking out several major lows. Essentially this is a short squeeze / dead cat bounce, and going for the retest of the breakdown. The market tends to go back and retest such key areas before moving to the original direction. Similar story for Gold which is also bouncing and has some room to the upside before it reverses to the downside. In the long term I do believe Copper will be headed much much higher, especially as governments print more and more, along with the ESG movement. Copper is necessary for the green revolution and that's why I can see it much higher in the long term. However in the short term the price got too high, too fast, and as it failed to sustain above the 2011 ATHs, it is probably headed towards 3.75 and maybe even lower in the next few years. For now the first key target for this trade 3.95, although someone could simply take partial profits there. The trade has a fairly decent R/R and decent probability of playing out as long as the market gets to our entry.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by BitcoinMacro
1
Gold Forming Bullish Cup with Handle Gold has been working on a bullish cup with handle continuation pattern for nearly 2-years. These patterns are typically bullish, reflecting a pause in a growing uptrend. Gold could dip further to complete the handle, or prices may have bottomed in May. To promote an upside breakout, gold futures need to close above $1900. On the downside, I see firm support surrounding $1750 (+/- $10.00). Sustained weakness below $1750 would imply a breached pattern and a more complex correction phase.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Gold_Predict
Has Silver started a new leg lower? Hello, TradingView community. We hope you’re all having a solid session so far. Silver's daily chart has caught our attention today as price formed a solid move lower yesterday, and sellers have broken the low in today’s session. This could be a confirmation that the recovery trend has started to fail. On top of the price pattern, the MA is pointing lower, and the CCI is in its bearish zone. We want to see price close below yesterday’s low and test/break the May 19th low to give this idea more credit. If we sellers can hold momentum and break 21.27, this could show strong seller momentum, and if other factors back up the momentum, we could even see a new move back to the 20.60 area. But, we are looking for sellers to close below yesterday’s low to give yesterday’s move further confirmation. The same pattern can also be seen on gold’s daily chart. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XAGUSDShort
by Eightcap
The Gold Odyssey - retracement done AS previously described, Gold was in a deep retracement, and it appears that this week, the retracement is done. Weekly chart shows a reversal candlestick pattern over the past three weeks, finding the week's close at a resistance level. Look for a breakout in the coming weeks, as Gold closed above the weekly 55EMA this past week. Do note that previous mapping of the handle (Cup & Handle formation) it shifted forward; and 2080 high is expected to be broken around November 2022. The daily chart show a higher low, and technicals are turning bullish. The retracement was nicely above 1800, and has a potential 20% upside to 2080. Possible for consolidation to near 1800-1820, and would be looking for clarity in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, would be good for the USD to ease off a little. hehe. Stay safe and well...
COMEX:GC1!
by Auguraltrader
GOLD/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishGOLD/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *Equities are up and Gold is currently uppish/flat. If you believe that equities are seeing a bear market rally and new lows are in the near future, that very well may be catalyzed by another 50bp (at least) rate hike and the beginning of the treasury security rollover and mortgage backed security reinvestment come June 1st, then you have reason to be bullish on Gold. However, if you think market's have priced this in already and are prepared to surge higher in June, then you may want to reduce your short-medium term exposure to Gold.* Recommended ratio: 80% Gold, 20% Cash. Price is attempting to establish support at the 50 MA (~$1841) for a third consecutive session. Volume remains high (moderate) and is on track to break the two day streak of seller dominance if it can close today in the green (six of the past eight sessions will then have favored buyers). Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1812, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 46.16 and it's technically still testing 42.06 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 80.32; it's still technically testing 88.41 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -14.69, the next resistance is at -10.84. ADX is currently trending down at 19.92 as Price continues to want to go higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment but would need to form a trough together with more price appreciation to confirm bullishness. If Price is able to break out above $1867 minor resistance then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$1910 minor resistance. However, if Price is rejected here at $1867, it will likely retest the 200 MA at $1830 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from March 2020 at $1800. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1831.
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by dailytaguy
XAGUSD Silver : Stairway to heaven? Bull flag behemoth! 25.5A "bull flag" is a bullish candlestick pattern which is defined by - 1) A linear movement up (flag pole) 2) A tunnel or channel which is on top of the linear movement up (flag) 3) A break above the top of the channel which is the continuation of the up-trend (target) The target is the size of the flag pole movement stretched from the breakout of the tunnel. In this specific case the long-term target is around $45. The tunnel or channel range is between 20.20 - 26.20 Looking at the MACD we are furthest away from the baseline since March 2020 and showing convergence similar as back than before the flag pole movement of $17, which of course is a very bullish technical sign. Silver is fundamentally bullish as well due to rising inflation globally. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful, please like and follow! It would truly mean a lot. If there's anything you'd like to ask or comment, don't hesitate - It's the fuel to keep me going. I am not a financial advisor and I encourage you to do your own research and be cautious when trading. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Exactus
4
GOLD/USD Daily TA BullishGOLD/USD Daily bullish. *Hints of stagflation and a very possible recession fueled by a strong U.S. dollar , high inflation , low unemployment , rising Funds rate , falling new home sales , Russia/China and shrinking GDP has some investors fleeing to Gold as a safe haven asset again. This has been further exacerbated by the recent downturn for USD.* Recommended ratio: 90% GOLD, 10% cash. Price is currently trending up at $1860 after establishing support at both the 200 MA ($1840) and the uptrend line from April 2020. Volume remains high (moderate) and is currently on track to favor sellers for the first session in six sessions if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1800, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 46.50 after defending support at the uptrend line from April 2013 at 35.50; the next resistance is at 67.24 and the next support at 42.06. Stochastic remains bullish and is on the verge of crossing over bearish at 98. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -17, the next resistance is at -10.84. ADX is currently trending down at 22.84 as Price continues higher, this is reflective of a potential reversal and would be confirmed if ADX was to bounce in the coming sessions and trend back above 25. If Price is able to continue surging then it will likely test the 50 MA at $1910 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the 200 MA at $1840 before potentially heading lower to retest the uptrend line from April 2020 at $1800. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1840.
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by dailytaguy
Trading Plan - Bearish Scenario - XAUUSD.In today's post, I will speak about my plan in case of a bearish resolution in gold. The first thing is the formation I want to see before trading. I have defined 2 conditions. a) I want to observe a clear ABC pattern. b) The price must get close to the resistance level. IF those conditions happen , I would be interested in developing setups below B (that's my confirmation level). That means that I set pending orders below that level, so my entry gets triggered if the price reaches it. (Entry Level) My stop level will be set above C and take profit on the support zone. It's important to say that I'm not expecting a bearish movement or a bullish movement. My approach is about getting ready for possible outcomes and letting the market decide what the correct direction is. The market is ALWAYS right. At the moment, I'm focusing on the bearish side because if I want to develop bullish setups, I must wait for the price to break the current descending channel. So, as the bearish scenario is more imminent, I'm posting my plan here. I will update this idea if the price makes the desired formation or invalidates this view. Thanks for reading!
COMEX:GC1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
8