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Preciousmetals

DXYHTF weekly chart analysis shows that W3 is likely in at my $109.50 target posted 3-4 weeks ago in my group channel & here on TV as well. The extended 3rd wave is actually structurally perfect. W3 hits the 1.618% fib extension as in most strong bullish momentum charts and forms a bearish hammer top on the weekly showing that the top of wave 3 is likely now in. This being said W4 can hit the 618% fib retracement level around $97.32 or the 50% at $99.60 or even the 382% around $101.88. As of now there's no way to be sure how wave 4 plays out but I expect Wave 4 to hit $98 and during this TF of the DXY W4 the stock market & crypto markets should outperform vs the DXY and possibly we finally get the big blow off top to the SP500 around 6,000 and $78k BTC. After that W5 will come fast and destroy any risk assets.
TVC:DXYShort
by Big_Mike716
$XAG - Keep an eye!$XAG - Keep an eye! Precious metals have had an ugly time within the market, when it comes to rate hikes decisions stronger dxy leading commodities to weaken further, but now we are at key areas when it comes to HT and that's interesting. As I always state HT = ST movement. Regarding support areas of $XAG if $18 doesn't hold we head further lower to $17 and that can easily be achieved but this area of support we've tested for yrs and that's why it really matters and sure we could look at metals miner we could even look further to get the best R/R for XAUXAG to seek out further validation. I'm personally on side line for now. There has been various headlines regarding, lot of buyers when it comes to physical precious metal buying for 'inflation' hedge... Have a great weekend TJ
OANDA:XAGUSD
by Trade_Journal
Trade Idea: Short setup in XAUUSD in case of a bearish scenario.In every new post, I always like to explain that my views are not a statement of "This will happen." Instead, my posts should be interpreted as "We never know what direction the price will take" However if the price movement becomes bearish, this is how I will trade the market. Another important element to highlight is that my setups have a 50% win rate. That means that over 30 setups, I have 15 stop losses. So how do I make money if half of the time I'm wrong? The answer is: "Thanks to Risk to reward ratios." So, my win rate is 50%; however, when I win, I make 2 times what I'm risking on average. And that's the key. You must be prepared to see deviations from the average. For example, on a strategy with a 50% win rate, you will sometimes observe 6 or 7 consecutive stop losses. That's called Standard deviation (but we will speak about that in another post). This long introduction is made to develop a realistic view of a setup or a strategy and, in this case, my strategy. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bearish Technical Perspective: a) The price had been moving in a range since the top in August 2020. b) 1 year later, in August 2021, we observed the beginning of a new bullish trend defined by the white ascending trendline c) Almost 300 days later, the price broke that trendline, and we observed a corrective formation. (A pullback) d) I never trade a structure without having a clear pattern. In this case, I see the ABC pattern. e) Another important element is that I never take a setup that I can not prove that the same concept worked in the past with the same or similar context. (Like this scenario in 2013)(It's important that you look for more than one scenario) QUESTION : Is this a guarantee that the setup will be successful? ANSWER: NO, it's not guaranteed. Let's take a second to speak about a good principle in trading. You can find evidence that something should evolve in a certain way; you can see a perfect scenario, literally a 10/10, and still have a stop loss. You are working with statistics. But don't get disappointed; if you only focus on 10/10 setups, you will see over a good sample that there's a clear edge. Final details about the setup: I'm risking 3% of my capital on the stop loss and aiming to make 6% in case of a take profit. The setup duration is expected to be 30 to 45 days if everything goes as planned. If I have a stop loss, that's it. So let your stop-loss gently take you out of the market. If the order is not executed and we observe bullish movements, I will change my perspective to trade long. Thanks for reading!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkingAntsOk
5
XAUUSD buy position**SIMILAR OPPORTUNITY TO GBPUSD,so im just copying my insight :) Another buy opportunity for XAUUSD . From a massive drop after CPI , i see this as a chance to make profit. my end goal is to hit 1800++ level again as it was the initial price forXAUUSD , however, my first line of TP is 1750, then my original TP:1800, and hopefully it still reaches to 1850. Iv scalped back and forth the past few days slow move, however setting some long term positions for XAUUSD because I can see a great potential when this reverses.. Im prepared to have a few more positions if ever this continue to slide down. Let's see if this reverses back soon, andlet's see how this day rolls. Be careful in trading because like what they always say, your capital is at risk:)
OANDA:XAUUSD
by delrosariohanan
1
GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% Gold, 75% Cash. *The Head and Shoulders formation is currently completing as the 50 MA crosses under the 200 MA (Death Cross). Gold, Oil, USD, Treasuries, Crypto and Equities are all either up or flat; this is indicative of a broader reversal in market sentiment regarding recessionary fears. Both Fed Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said they expect a 75bps rate hike in July followed by at least 50bps in September and then potentially 25bps thereafter because financial markets and the economy are both responding to the rates hikes appropriately thus far; they also both suggested that recession fears are overblown, which prompted almost all markets to rally. Considering that the Fed largely operates off of lagging data, it would be prudent to assume that inflation may not have peaked quite yet; that said, it's advised to continue to be vigilant as the bottom continues to be found.* Price is currently completing a H&S breakdown and is testing $1742 minor support after also breaking down out of the uptrend line from April 2020 (~$1800). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1800, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 28 while testing 27 support; the next resistance is the uptrend line from April 2013 at 36. Stochastic is currently resisting a test of max bottom as it crosses over bullish at 25. MACD broke down below -11 support and is currently trending down at -25 with no signs of trough formation; the next support is at -39. ADX is currently trending up at 21 as Price continues to break down, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to bounce here at $1742 and continue up, it will likely test $1784 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest $1684 major support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1748.
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by dailytaguy
Gold Fractals Align - Could See A HUGE Price Swing HigherCycles & Fractals are aligning for an aggressive move higher in Gold & Silver. If my research is correct, a similar fractal is setting up right now compared to the one from the GFC (2008-2011). I believe we are at a peak in the Gold/Silver ratio and we could see an aggressive move downward in this ratio over the next 6~18+ months - sending Gold and Silver MUCH HIGHER. Follow my research and learn to protect and grow your wealth. There are still decent stocks/ETFs to trade - but now is the time to be SUPER CAUTIOUS. Gold/Silver/Bonds should begin to move higher as FEAR takes over the markets.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
2
Dr Copper is telling us deflation is comingAt the beginning of June I put out an idea about shorting Copper . The market didn't do me the favor to get up to my entry, as I ignored past resistance. Probably got a little greedy too. Currently copper is sitting at support and could bounce up to 4$, maybe even up to 4.25$. However in the long term, I see it go much much lower. In my opinion we are in a global recession, and probably even in a global depression. As interest rates and energy costs have risen rapidly, the demand for many things has gone down. We haven't seen the full effects of too much debt + lockdowns + WW3 + not enough energy production yet, but we are getting there. Copper going down is just the first step, and this could turn really really ugly. The 2006-2008 top on Copper looks pretty similar to this one. Huge rally up, consolidation, attempt to breakout, failure, massive collapse. This time around we had a shorter cycle due to the lockdowns + stimulus + low rates + ESG , but this situation is truly reversing. We have no lockdowns, no stimulus, high rates and the ESG movement is clearly losing steam. Overall volume is low and that's a sign that demand for Copper isn't all that high. It was mostly supply being low, and not demand being high. So how low could we go? The truth is that for some time this could be a bottomless pit. However, I believe the bottom will come in the 1.5-1.9 area, as the market needs to sweep the double bottom at 1.9. In terms of technical analysis this is the area anyone should be targeting. Once we get there, we could see a swift reversal as the Fed and all central banks are forced to cut rates and print money once again, in order to save the system from collapsing. They are stuck between a rock and hard place, and although they are doing their best to fight inflation now, they will soon be trying to fight deflation.
COMEX:HG1!
by BitcoinMacro
$XAUUSD: Huge reward to risk bottom signal...$I'm long PMs as of today, Silver and Gold acting strong after a weekly down trend expired recently. As per my long term yearly chart data, both $XAUUSD and $XAGUSD show long term uptrend signals active and are attractive to rejoin that potential scenario being oversold into support, while short term charts progressively turn bullish from daily upwards. Weekly had a signal which will expire next week and implies a potential mean reversion move towards $1927+ within the span of 6 weeks or less. The daily timeframe turned bullish today, reversing the recent weakness seen since March 8th when metals peaked. Select gold and silver mining stocks look very appealing with low valuations once again ($GFI, $SBSW, $PAAS, $AU, as well as $SCCO and $FCX to name a few). Decent opportunity to go long with low risk vs potential upside in the case of a stagflationary scenario or a scenario where real rates stop going up or come down over time. which seems likely given demographics and fundamentals. For instance, the adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles to resolve climate change and potentially address the energy crisis at hand could serve as a tailwind for precious and base metals and mining stocks in general. Long term investments can be done with funds that we can afford to lose or see cut in half to hold for long as necessary to let this trend play out, the trend in $XAUUSD is also a great short term trade, from where we can hold long exposure with big size, while risking small given the tight stop that is possible here at the signal invalidation. Long term positions are better done with physical gold and silver ETFs and/or mining stocks to buy metals in the ground, rather than dealing with futures or CFDs and their carry. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
1
Copper rallying hardCopper bounced very hard off the Yearly Pivot, however it doesn't look ready for a new sustainable rally. Maybe this bounce had something to do with a fundamental catalyst, but nothing to do with the bull market resuming. To me the market is in a very clear distribution phase, and it simply bounced after taking out several major lows. Essentially this is a short squeeze / dead cat bounce, and going for the retest of the breakdown. The market tends to go back and retest such key areas before moving to the original direction. Similar story for Gold which is also bouncing and has some room to the upside before it reverses to the downside. In the long term I do believe Copper will be headed much much higher, especially as governments print more and more, along with the ESG movement. Copper is necessary for the green revolution and that's why I can see it much higher in the long term. However in the short term the price got too high, too fast, and as it failed to sustain above the 2011 ATHs, it is probably headed towards 3.75 and maybe even lower in the next few years. For now the first key target for this trade 3.95, although someone could simply take partial profits there. The trade has a fairly decent R/R and decent probability of playing out as long as the market gets to our entry.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by BitcoinMacro
1