Gold Forming Bullish Cup with Handle Gold has been working on a bullish cup with handle continuation pattern for nearly 2-years.
These patterns are typically bullish, reflecting a pause in a growing uptrend.
Gold could dip further to complete the handle, or prices may have bottomed in May.
To promote an upside breakout, gold futures need to close above $1900.
On the downside, I see firm support surrounding $1750 (+/- $10.00).
Sustained weakness below $1750 would imply a breached pattern and a more complex correction phase.
Preciousmetals
Has Silver started a new leg lower? Hello, TradingView community. We hope you’re all having a solid session so far. Silver's daily chart has caught our attention today as price formed a solid move lower yesterday, and sellers have broken the low in today’s session. This could be a confirmation that the recovery trend has started to fail.
On top of the price pattern, the MA is pointing lower, and the CCI is in its bearish zone. We want to see price close below yesterday’s low and test/break the May 19th low to give this idea more credit. If we sellers can hold momentum and break 21.27, this could show strong seller momentum, and if other factors back up the momentum, we could even see a new move back to the 20.60 area.
But, we are looking for sellers to close below yesterday’s low to give yesterday’s move further confirmation.
The same pattern can also be seen on gold’s daily chart.
Good trading.
The Gold Odyssey - retracement done AS previously described, Gold was in a deep retracement, and it appears that this week, the retracement is done.
Weekly chart shows a reversal candlestick pattern over the past three weeks, finding the week's close at a resistance level. Look for a breakout in the coming weeks, as Gold closed above the weekly 55EMA this past week.
Do note that previous mapping of the handle (Cup & Handle formation) it shifted forward; and 2080 high is expected to be broken around November 2022.
The daily chart show a higher low, and technicals are turning bullish. The retracement was nicely above 1800, and has a potential 20% upside to 2080. Possible for consolidation to near 1800-1820, and would be looking for clarity in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, would be good for the USD to ease off a little. hehe.
Stay safe and well...
GOLD/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishGOLD/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *Equities are up and Gold is currently uppish/flat. If you believe that equities are seeing a bear market rally and new lows are in the near future, that very well may be catalyzed by another 50bp (at least) rate hike and the beginning of the treasury security rollover and mortgage backed security reinvestment come June 1st, then you have reason to be bullish on Gold. However, if you think market's have priced this in already and are prepared to surge higher in June, then you may want to reduce your short-medium term exposure to Gold.* Recommended ratio: 80% Gold, 20% Cash. Price is attempting to establish support at the 50 MA (~$1841) for a third consecutive session. Volume remains high (moderate) and is on track to break the two day streak of seller dominance if it can close today in the green (six of the past eight sessions will then have favored buyers). Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1812, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 46.16 and it's technically still testing 42.06 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 80.32; it's still technically testing 88.41 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -14.69, the next resistance is at -10.84. ADX is currently trending down at 19.92 as Price continues to want to go higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment but would need to form a trough together with more price appreciation to confirm bullishness. If Price is able to break out above $1867 minor resistance then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$1910 minor resistance. However, if Price is rejected here at $1867, it will likely retest the 200 MA at $1830 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from March 2020 at $1800. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1831.
XAGUSD Silver : Stairway to heaven? Bull flag behemoth! 25.5A "bull flag" is a bullish candlestick pattern which is defined by -
1) A linear movement up (flag pole)
2) A tunnel or channel which is on top of the linear movement up (flag)
3) A break above the top of the channel which is the continuation of the up-trend (target)
The target is the size of the flag pole movement stretched from the breakout of the tunnel. In this specific case the long-term target is around $45.
The tunnel or channel range is between 20.20 - 26.20
Looking at the MACD we are furthest away from the baseline since March 2020 and showing convergence similar as back than before the flag pole movement of $17, which of course is a very bullish technical sign.
Silver is fundamentally bullish as well due to rising inflation globally.
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Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful, please like and follow! It would truly mean a lot.
If there's anything you'd like to ask or comment, don't hesitate - It's the fuel to keep me going.
I am not a financial advisor and I encourage you to do your own research and be cautious when trading.
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GOLD/USD Daily TA BullishGOLD/USD Daily bullish. *Hints of stagflation and a very possible recession fueled by a strong U.S. dollar , high inflation , low unemployment , rising Funds rate , falling new home sales , Russia/China and shrinking GDP has some investors fleeing to Gold as a safe haven asset again. This has been further exacerbated by the recent downturn for USD.* Recommended ratio: 90% GOLD, 10% cash. Price is currently trending up at $1860 after establishing support at both the 200 MA ($1840) and the uptrend line from April 2020. Volume remains high (moderate) and is currently on track to favor sellers for the first session in six sessions if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1800, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 46.50 after defending support at the uptrend line from April 2013 at 35.50; the next resistance is at 67.24 and the next support at 42.06. Stochastic remains bullish and is on the verge of crossing over bearish at 98. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -17, the next resistance is at -10.84. ADX is currently trending down at 22.84 as Price continues higher, this is reflective of a potential reversal and would be confirmed if ADX was to bounce in the coming sessions and trend back above 25. If Price is able to continue surging then it will likely test the 50 MA at $1910 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the 200 MA at $1840 before potentially heading lower to retest the uptrend line from April 2020 at $1800. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1840.
Trading Plan - Bearish Scenario - XAUUSD.In today's post, I will speak about my plan in case of a bearish resolution in gold.
The first thing is the formation I want to see before trading. I have defined 2 conditions.
a) I want to observe a clear ABC pattern.
b) The price must get close to the resistance level.
IF those conditions happen , I would be interested in developing setups below B (that's my confirmation level). That means that I set pending orders below that level, so my entry gets triggered if the price reaches it. (Entry Level)
My stop level will be set above C and take profit on the support zone.
It's important to say that I'm not expecting a bearish movement or a bullish movement. My approach is about getting ready for possible outcomes and letting the market decide what the correct direction is. The market is ALWAYS right.
At the moment, I'm focusing on the bearish side because if I want to develop bullish setups, I must wait for the price to break the current descending channel. So, as the bearish scenario is more imminent, I'm posting my plan here. I will update this idea if the price makes the desired formation or invalidates this view.
Thanks for reading!
GC - GOLD GLD - Finds DemandWhoo Hoo, only managed to drop $140 form where I was being told it was a Buy.
Yeah, nw, wrong again.
Peter, Lynette, Dave and crew can continue to wank the Bugs, it's healthy.
10year pulling back with DX will provide some taiwinds for the Yellow Dawg.
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Ultimately Uncle Kook will be coming for it.
Plan for it.
Toe Stibs and Door Stops.. useless in Economc Colapse.
COT Lined up against the noobs, althoguh less so.
Thye'll be back, they always come back.
GOLD: 1M Chart Review with price targetHello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1M linear scale chart for the Gold price.
Gold had a local double top formation and it seems that on a macro level it formed a double top as well. Looking at the overall economy, Gold has a strong possibility of heading down. The Fibonacci Retracement shows price coming down to the 0.236 level where this is major support with prior price action. That would be a price of around $1,100-$1,400 range.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
Gold Price: Daily Chart ReviewHello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1D linear scale chart for Gold.
The chart is self-explanatory. If the price does not hold the multi-year support line, expect downward pressure to test the bottom end of the descending broadening wedge as well as the re-test of the descending parallel channel. The price has made multiple attempts to break out of the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement level but has failed so far. It may make another attempt if the price is supported by the support trendline. Lastly, the overall multi-year pattern since August 2018 is an ascending broadening wedge which is bearish.
Shown in the chart: Trend line, Support and Resistance Lines, Parallel Channel, Ascending Broadening Wedge, Descending Broadening Wedge, Bear Trap, Bull Trap, Breakout Zones, Fibonacci Retracement and Trend Analysis.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
The Gold Odyssey - deep retraceGold has been in a four week retracement, with the greatest momentum this past week, pushing down to near 1800.
The weekly and daily technicals suggest more downside to 1765, where the next support lies. Watch these levels for a possible consolidation / bounce.
Clearly, this retracement is deeper than expected, and would require a quick rebound to resume the long term pattern.
GOLD/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishXAU/USD Daily cautiously bearish. Cup and Handle formation has been invalidated/Double Top formation from August 2020 + March 2022 in play . Recommended ratio: 25% Gold, 75% cash. Price is currently losing support at the 200 MA ($1837) as it continues to trend down and out of the major uptrend line from August 2018. Volume remains high and has favored sellers for two consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1875, this is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 30 as it risks breaking the uptrend line from April 2013 (the year of the 'Taper Tantrum' when the Fed was once again delayed in unwinding QE); the next support is at 27.31. Stochastic remains bearish and is on the verge of crossing over bullish at 14.37; the next support is at max bottom and the next resistance at 21.78. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -27.63; it is still technically testing 19.72 support and if 19.72 doesn't hold the next support would be the ATL at 54.60. ADX is currently trending up at 24 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price isn't able to defend the 200 MA at $1837, then it will likely retest $1702 support before potentially heading lower. However, if Price can bounce here, then it will likely retest the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870 as resistance before deciding its next move. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1910.
Get long Silver for the long haul? This chart is a super zoomed-out view of Silver priced in U.S. Dollars going back about 10 years on a Monthly time frame. While I think a very good trade idea could be coming a little later this year (2022), I think the thesis is best illustrated on the longer time frame.
As you can see in the chart, Silver spent about a year and a half consolidating in a range between the high $18 range, to the mid $24 range. I've drawn a rectangle from this time period to the Volume Profile to show that a small value area was formed at these prices.
Since April 18th, Silver has been crushed - it has barely seen an uptick on it's way to declining about -17%. The broader view isn't much better, as it is down -16.5% YoY, and -6.5% YTD. Over that same time, Gold has held up much better and is up +4% YoY and +1.3% YTD. Consequently, the Gold/Silver ratio has been trending upward on a steady incline.
While its possible that the current consolidation range can hold, and Silver can sustain prices above $20 before heading back up, but I think its easier to make the case that Silver is weakening over the near term, and could break its range to the downside.
If you believe that inflation will be a problem for months, if not years to come, metals should eventually rebound and back up to retest the previous highs. A break below $20 would likely push the Gold/Silver ratio higher, and offer a fantastic opportunity to get long Silver. with the potential tailwinds of a dramatic price rise in the near future - both in terms of U.S. Dollars, and Gold.
If the break lower does come to pass, good candidates to enter longs silver positions would be either via Futures, or options in the SLV ETF. I'd also look to put positions on in the Small Exchange's Precious Metals contract SPRE . While this is product would give exposure to the entire precious metals complex, Silver would act as the driver to push it higher.
GOLD/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishXAU/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Cup and Handle formation from August 2011 still valid + recent downturn can be attributed to a strong dollar (move to treasuries) but overarching theme of geopolitical uncertainty and inflation still control the narrative thus far*. Recommended ratio 40% gold, 60% cash. Price is currently testing the 200 MA at $1838 as support and is still technically testing the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870 as support as well. Volume (according to CME data) is moderately high and on track to favor sellers for three consecutive sessions as it is at a critical support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1895, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from April 2013 at 32 as support (for the first time since August 2021) after being rejected by 39.34 resistance. Stochastic reverted to a bearish crossover after being rejected by 21.78 resistance and is currently trending down at 3.50 as it approaches a retest of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is slightly trending down at -24 as it tests -19.72 support. ADX is slightly trending up at 21 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to defend support at the 200 MA ($1838) then the next likely target is a retest of $1910 resistance (after reclaiming the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870). However, if Price breaks down here, the next likely target is a retest of $1702 support which would invalidate the Cup and Handle formation. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1910.
Long Silver to Year VWAPSimple chart, simple idea.
Looking at the mid term year seasonality since 1982, we may get a 4-5 day rally with the Euro as DXY looks to be in a major daily/weekly blowoff.
Ultimately the better time to buy precious metals again may be June and July.
Gold is forming a very similar blowoff pattern when compared to August 2020.
The Gold Odyssey - retrace & relaunchQuick note that previous projections to 2100 still maintained and appear to be on track, despite a recent retracement in Gold, partially due to the sudden rise of the USD.
Although Gold prices fell below the daily 55EMA, today (5th May) saw a gap up in Asian hours after opening. There is a strong follow through (Gap and Run) and IF it closes at this level, then technically, Gold is likely to be back on the uptrend again.
Watch as the MACD is turning upwards to crossover. May is an important month to break out of consolidation.
XAUUSD Bullish And Bearish PlanLast month I was stopped out on a bullish setup on gold, that was looking to get exposure to a new bullish movement above the previous all-time high zone. However, the setup didn't go as expected and my stop loss was triggered. Remember, always let your stop loss gently take you out of the market, and assume that controlled loss. Now is time to redefine the next possible setup I will be taking on the precious metal.
Current context:
a) The price is between a major Support and resistance zone, with inner support & Resistance level.
b) Regarding trendlines we can see two. A bullish trendline, and a bearish trendline. Both represent the levels where we can start thinking about new setups. In the meantime, while the price is between them, I will avoid trading.
Let's understand the possible two swing setups I'm interested in taking.
Bearish Setup:
Bullish Setup:
As you can see, both scenarios wait for the breakout of the descending trendline, followed by a retest. Positions get open on a new high/low. Stop loss is defined on the high/low of the retest. Target is defined on the next major support/resistance zone. All of them provide a risk to reward ratio above 2.
At the moment none of the two scenarios is defined, and patience is a key element to apply here. AVOID trading, if the price is not following the filters you have defined. That will help you improve the quality of the setups you get exposure to.
Thanks for reading!
Cup & Handle on Silver, Silver to $250+Expecting a flood of money into precious metals that takes Silver over $250 within 5-6 years. The crashing bond market and raging inflation will spur huge inflows over the coming months and years. Huge Cup and Handle that began in 1971 will play out over the course of this decade.
XAUUSD my current setup explained. Hello Everyone! Few days without posting. Let's go back with a post on Gold.
On the precious metal, I have a pending setup that was not activated yet. I'm currently using GC! (gold futures) as the instrument to gain exposure to this asset.
Here is the explanation of my setup. Let's get started.
As the price reached a key level and made a clear corrective pattern, I decided t set pending orders above the resistance zone. The objective is to enter the market on the actual breakout of this structure and avoid possible Fake outs. Of course, we will never know when we are in front of a breakout or a fake-out. However, we can maximize our chances by giving enough space to the price.
The risk to reward ratio of this setup is 3. That means that for every unit of risk I'm taking, I aim to make 3 times that in profit.
The expected duration of this setup is between 2 to 4 months.
What if this situation goes wrong? IF the setup is activated, I have a stop loss where I'm risking 3% of my capital as the worst-case scenario. I'm locking my risk at that value or close to that value (depending on executions and market volatility.) IF the setup is not activated, and I observe a new low below the structure, I will cancel the setup at the moment, and I will wait for further confirmation.
Based on historical data , I have concluded that this is a good situation to gain exposure to gold.
One of the similarities that caught my attention was comparing this with the previously bearish market from 1980 Until 2008 when the price went to the previous ATH. At that point, we observed a similar corrective pattern and, after that, a new bull run.
Thanks for reading; I hope the post was helpful. Feel free to share your view and charts in the comments. Protect your capital!
Silver is going to EXPLODE HIGHERTake a look at this chart showing the disparity between US stock market prices, gold prices, and Silver from the end of the US Gold Standard (1971). All you have to see on this chart is the rally in Gold and the SPX recently. This is the EVERYTHING BUBBLE created by global central banks over the past 8+ years.
There has never been a time when FEAR and ASSETs have risen together like this. Global central banks have pushed debt/credit levels to extremes. Traders understand the risks and are already shifting capital away from stock market assets in preparation of a Fed rate hike. They know what comes next.
Silver has been so undervalued over the past 15+ years that the disparity between these price levels shows Silver has at least 150% to 300% upside price potential over the next 24+ months (or longer).
Now you know why so many people are talking about how the global central banks have fooled people into believing paper has any real value. Gold/Silver are value. Paper is just paper.
Learn from the Chinese. Over the past 6000 years, there have been numerous paper currencies pushed out as forms of value by rulers. Eventually - all of them collapsed. The locals realized this and continued to collect Gold and Silver (trading their paper for Gold/Silver when possible).
The unraveling of this EVERYTHING BUBBLE will be epic.
Follow my research.