GOLD: 1M Chart Review with price targetHello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1M linear scale chart for the Gold price.
Gold had a local double top formation and it seems that on a macro level it formed a double top as well. Looking at the overall economy, Gold has a strong possibility of heading down. The Fibonacci Retracement shows price coming down to the 0.236 level where this is major support with prior price action. That would be a price of around $1,100-$1,400 range.
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Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
Preciousmetals
Gold Price: Daily Chart ReviewHello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1D linear scale chart for Gold.
The chart is self-explanatory. If the price does not hold the multi-year support line, expect downward pressure to test the bottom end of the descending broadening wedge as well as the re-test of the descending parallel channel. The price has made multiple attempts to break out of the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement level but has failed so far. It may make another attempt if the price is supported by the support trendline. Lastly, the overall multi-year pattern since August 2018 is an ascending broadening wedge which is bearish.
Shown in the chart: Trend line, Support and Resistance Lines, Parallel Channel, Ascending Broadening Wedge, Descending Broadening Wedge, Bear Trap, Bull Trap, Breakout Zones, Fibonacci Retracement and Trend Analysis.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
The Gold Odyssey - deep retraceGold has been in a four week retracement, with the greatest momentum this past week, pushing down to near 1800.
The weekly and daily technicals suggest more downside to 1765, where the next support lies. Watch these levels for a possible consolidation / bounce.
Clearly, this retracement is deeper than expected, and would require a quick rebound to resume the long term pattern.
GOLD/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishXAU/USD Daily cautiously bearish. Cup and Handle formation has been invalidated/Double Top formation from August 2020 + March 2022 in play . Recommended ratio: 25% Gold, 75% cash. Price is currently losing support at the 200 MA ($1837) as it continues to trend down and out of the major uptrend line from August 2018. Volume remains high and has favored sellers for two consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1875, this is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 30 as it risks breaking the uptrend line from April 2013 (the year of the 'Taper Tantrum' when the Fed was once again delayed in unwinding QE); the next support is at 27.31. Stochastic remains bearish and is on the verge of crossing over bullish at 14.37; the next support is at max bottom and the next resistance at 21.78. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -27.63; it is still technically testing 19.72 support and if 19.72 doesn't hold the next support would be the ATL at 54.60. ADX is currently trending up at 24 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price isn't able to defend the 200 MA at $1837, then it will likely retest $1702 support before potentially heading lower. However, if Price can bounce here, then it will likely retest the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870 as resistance before deciding its next move. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1910.
Get long Silver for the long haul? This chart is a super zoomed-out view of Silver priced in U.S. Dollars going back about 10 years on a Monthly time frame. While I think a very good trade idea could be coming a little later this year (2022), I think the thesis is best illustrated on the longer time frame.
As you can see in the chart, Silver spent about a year and a half consolidating in a range between the high $18 range, to the mid $24 range. I've drawn a rectangle from this time period to the Volume Profile to show that a small value area was formed at these prices.
Since April 18th, Silver has been crushed - it has barely seen an uptick on it's way to declining about -17%. The broader view isn't much better, as it is down -16.5% YoY, and -6.5% YTD. Over that same time, Gold has held up much better and is up +4% YoY and +1.3% YTD. Consequently, the Gold/Silver ratio has been trending upward on a steady incline.
While its possible that the current consolidation range can hold, and Silver can sustain prices above $20 before heading back up, but I think its easier to make the case that Silver is weakening over the near term, and could break its range to the downside.
If you believe that inflation will be a problem for months, if not years to come, metals should eventually rebound and back up to retest the previous highs. A break below $20 would likely push the Gold/Silver ratio higher, and offer a fantastic opportunity to get long Silver. with the potential tailwinds of a dramatic price rise in the near future - both in terms of U.S. Dollars, and Gold.
If the break lower does come to pass, good candidates to enter longs silver positions would be either via Futures, or options in the SLV ETF. I'd also look to put positions on in the Small Exchange's Precious Metals contract SPRE . While this is product would give exposure to the entire precious metals complex, Silver would act as the driver to push it higher.
GOLD/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishXAU/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Cup and Handle formation from August 2011 still valid + recent downturn can be attributed to a strong dollar (move to treasuries) but overarching theme of geopolitical uncertainty and inflation still control the narrative thus far*. Recommended ratio 40% gold, 60% cash. Price is currently testing the 200 MA at $1838 as support and is still technically testing the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870 as support as well. Volume (according to CME data) is moderately high and on track to favor sellers for three consecutive sessions as it is at a critical support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1895, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from April 2013 at 32 as support (for the first time since August 2021) after being rejected by 39.34 resistance. Stochastic reverted to a bearish crossover after being rejected by 21.78 resistance and is currently trending down at 3.50 as it approaches a retest of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is slightly trending down at -24 as it tests -19.72 support. ADX is slightly trending up at 21 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to defend support at the 200 MA ($1838) then the next likely target is a retest of $1910 resistance (after reclaiming the uptrend line from August 2018 at ~$1870). However, if Price breaks down here, the next likely target is a retest of $1702 support which would invalidate the Cup and Handle formation. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1910.
Long Silver to Year VWAPSimple chart, simple idea.
Looking at the mid term year seasonality since 1982, we may get a 4-5 day rally with the Euro as DXY looks to be in a major daily/weekly blowoff.
Ultimately the better time to buy precious metals again may be June and July.
Gold is forming a very similar blowoff pattern when compared to August 2020.
The Gold Odyssey - retrace & relaunchQuick note that previous projections to 2100 still maintained and appear to be on track, despite a recent retracement in Gold, partially due to the sudden rise of the USD.
Although Gold prices fell below the daily 55EMA, today (5th May) saw a gap up in Asian hours after opening. There is a strong follow through (Gap and Run) and IF it closes at this level, then technically, Gold is likely to be back on the uptrend again.
Watch as the MACD is turning upwards to crossover. May is an important month to break out of consolidation.
XAUUSD Bullish And Bearish PlanLast month I was stopped out on a bullish setup on gold, that was looking to get exposure to a new bullish movement above the previous all-time high zone. However, the setup didn't go as expected and my stop loss was triggered. Remember, always let your stop loss gently take you out of the market, and assume that controlled loss. Now is time to redefine the next possible setup I will be taking on the precious metal.
Current context:
a) The price is between a major Support and resistance zone, with inner support & Resistance level.
b) Regarding trendlines we can see two. A bullish trendline, and a bearish trendline. Both represent the levels where we can start thinking about new setups. In the meantime, while the price is between them, I will avoid trading.
Let's understand the possible two swing setups I'm interested in taking.
Bearish Setup:
Bullish Setup:
As you can see, both scenarios wait for the breakout of the descending trendline, followed by a retest. Positions get open on a new high/low. Stop loss is defined on the high/low of the retest. Target is defined on the next major support/resistance zone. All of them provide a risk to reward ratio above 2.
At the moment none of the two scenarios is defined, and patience is a key element to apply here. AVOID trading, if the price is not following the filters you have defined. That will help you improve the quality of the setups you get exposure to.
Thanks for reading!
Cup & Handle on Silver, Silver to $250+Expecting a flood of money into precious metals that takes Silver over $250 within 5-6 years. The crashing bond market and raging inflation will spur huge inflows over the coming months and years. Huge Cup and Handle that began in 1971 will play out over the course of this decade.
XAUUSD my current setup explained. Hello Everyone! Few days without posting. Let's go back with a post on Gold.
On the precious metal, I have a pending setup that was not activated yet. I'm currently using GC! (gold futures) as the instrument to gain exposure to this asset.
Here is the explanation of my setup. Let's get started.
As the price reached a key level and made a clear corrective pattern, I decided t set pending orders above the resistance zone. The objective is to enter the market on the actual breakout of this structure and avoid possible Fake outs. Of course, we will never know when we are in front of a breakout or a fake-out. However, we can maximize our chances by giving enough space to the price.
The risk to reward ratio of this setup is 3. That means that for every unit of risk I'm taking, I aim to make 3 times that in profit.
The expected duration of this setup is between 2 to 4 months.
What if this situation goes wrong? IF the setup is activated, I have a stop loss where I'm risking 3% of my capital as the worst-case scenario. I'm locking my risk at that value or close to that value (depending on executions and market volatility.) IF the setup is not activated, and I observe a new low below the structure, I will cancel the setup at the moment, and I will wait for further confirmation.
Based on historical data , I have concluded that this is a good situation to gain exposure to gold.
One of the similarities that caught my attention was comparing this with the previously bearish market from 1980 Until 2008 when the price went to the previous ATH. At that point, we observed a similar corrective pattern and, after that, a new bull run.
Thanks for reading; I hope the post was helpful. Feel free to share your view and charts in the comments. Protect your capital!
Silver is going to EXPLODE HIGHERTake a look at this chart showing the disparity between US stock market prices, gold prices, and Silver from the end of the US Gold Standard (1971). All you have to see on this chart is the rally in Gold and the SPX recently. This is the EVERYTHING BUBBLE created by global central banks over the past 8+ years.
There has never been a time when FEAR and ASSETs have risen together like this. Global central banks have pushed debt/credit levels to extremes. Traders understand the risks and are already shifting capital away from stock market assets in preparation of a Fed rate hike. They know what comes next.
Silver has been so undervalued over the past 15+ years that the disparity between these price levels shows Silver has at least 150% to 300% upside price potential over the next 24+ months (or longer).
Now you know why so many people are talking about how the global central banks have fooled people into believing paper has any real value. Gold/Silver are value. Paper is just paper.
Learn from the Chinese. Over the past 6000 years, there have been numerous paper currencies pushed out as forms of value by rulers. Eventually - all of them collapsed. The locals realized this and continued to collect Gold and Silver (trading their paper for Gold/Silver when possible).
The unraveling of this EVERYTHING BUBBLE will be epic.
Follow my research.
Gold Sets Up For Another Big Rally To $2133+This rounded momentum base is just starting to accelerate toward $2100+. The recent downward price trending, related to the shift in capital in the global markets, sets up a very solid rally base. $1900 should continue to act as support. This next rally may be very explosive.
Get ready. The global markets are already 24+ months into a long-term Depreciation cycle phase. That means 5+ years is incredible opportunities for skilled traders.
Follow my research.
AUMN - The Best 3-Year Setup I've Ever SeenIMO, Golden Minerals, AUMN , has arguably one of the best and most bullish setups I have ever come across. It will be fun watching this one play out. Amazing risk/reward play with easy invalidation levels as well to protect yourself in this trade.
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XAUUSD H4 Potential For Bullish Bounce | 22nd April 2022Price is near to the key pivot . We can expect the price to potentially bounce from the buy entry level of 1941.577 in line with 50% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection towards the take profit level of 1974.791 which is in line with 61.8% fibonacci retracement and also a previous horizontal swing high resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
XAGUSD H4 Potential for Bearish Continuation | 21st April 2022Price is near to the key pivot level and it is showing bearish pressure. We can expect price to potentially dip from sell entry of 25.07892 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards the take profit level of 24.43624 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Otherwise, it might break the key pivot level and rise towards the stop loss level of 25.30681
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Gold Bullish Trend Confirmed - Target $2133For all you Gold Bugs. Follow my research.
Gold is going to rally to $2133 in fairly short order. Silver should follow along.
Once Gold gets above previous highs, watch for the hype to really pick up speed as traders realize the upside potential.
The inflation levels in commodities and other assets will raise risks related to consumer and other credit/debt risks (and possible defaults) once the Fed starts raising aggressively. If you don't understand the bigger market cycles, you are going to miss this incredible rally in precious metals.
This is just starting to gain momentum. Here we go. $2133, then higher.
XAUUSD Potential Bearish Reversal |13th April 2022We expect a potential bearish reversal from our sell entry level of 1973.130 in line with -61.8% Fibonacci expansion , 100% Fibonacci projection and 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards the take profit level of 1890.315 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection . Our bearish bias is supported by stochastic indicator where price is trading near to the support level .
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.