$GLD Newgold ETF. Flag buildingBullish looking flag building. A break would open a 29000 target on this chart. Wait for the break.
Preciousmetals
Gold preview?Amidst the equity market rout on Friday, Gold made an attempt to break out.
The weekly chart shows a decent attempt to close higher than previous weeks (to months), but closed the week short of breaking out.
The daily chart reflects that attempt and the breakout was not sustained, although it clocked a higher high. Technicals appear to be turning bullish, but not just yet
Am left wondering if this is a preview to Gold starting a new bull run. If it is, then this may be the start of a multi-year upside run...
Gold - Odds of bullish breakout are increasingGold keeps holding up pretty well despite the prospect of upcoming rate hikes in 2022. It continues its choppy price action within the neutral zone between 1750 USD and 1835 USD. At the moment, it trades slightly below the upper bound of the neutral zone which increases odds of yet another bullish breakout. We noted previously that we expected such breakout to be accompanied by resumption of the uptrend. However, previous breakouts became invalidated shortly after their occurrence took place. Because of that we will pay close attention to price action and we will reassess the situation as developments move forward.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also shows the price which has returned back into the upward moving channel. This is bullish development.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD is bullish too. Same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX contains low value which signals that no trend is currently present. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. However, lack of suggests that price action will continue to be choppy until breakout above the neutral zone or below it takes place.
Illustration 1.02
Picture above depicts the daily chart of XAUUSD and its previous false breakouts and invalidations. We will observe whether gold will manage to break above the resistance at 1835 USD without being invalidated shortly after.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are neutral. MACD is bullish. DM+ and DM- are mixed with ADX suggesting the presence of the neutral trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral.
Support and resistance
Main resistance lies at the upper bound of the neutral zone (1835 USD) while main support sits at its lower bound (1750 USD). Other important resistance levels can be found at 1850 USD, 1877 USD, 1916 USD. Other important support levels can be found at 1725 USD, 1700 USD and 1676 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Seasonal Futures Market Patterns Gold & SilverHey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Gold & Silver Futures Market. Gold & Silver and other precious metal markets follow an annual reliable seasonal pattern due to supply and demand . Knowing when to find these seasonal market patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
Gold UpdateTo answer your question of are we still in wave i, I would say no. We may have passed right through wave ii and on to our next descent.
Knowing when NOT to trade is also important | XAUUSD Today we will take a look at XAUUSD. I really like this asset to trade because of the consistent trends it provides, which are great for swing traders.
When you are executing a swing strategy , the main thing is avoiding choppy conditions and increasing the odds of developing setups on situations where you may observe clean trends from point A to point B.
In this situation, I want to show how I'm currently thinking XAUUSD . Since MAY 2021, the price has been moving sideways on an average price of 1800, going up and down. This is the type of situation where I don't want to develop swing setups because I'm not observing trending behavior. That's why NOT trading is protecting my capital from low-quality setups. The better you become at waiting for perfect scenarios, the higher the odds to engage on high-quality trades that provide a clear edge after several executions.
As you can see, I have defined the current area between the support and the resistance as "Bad zones for swing setups." And I have defined the support and the resistance zone as "good levels for setups" Why?
Because as I explained before, in the current area, we are not observing clear trends for us to develop swing setups. That's why we need to wait for the price to make contact with key levels (support and resistance). It is from these key levels that 2 things may happen: the price will break it or bounce. As we are working on a weekly timeframe, these situations will not occur in a few hours, it will take days until the resolution of the direction. That's why if you do your homework, you can get ready to react in the best way once the price reaches these zones where we will tend to observe some reactions and the beginning of a new movement.
My current plan is this:
IF the price reaches the support zone at 1680, I want to start thinking in bullish setups towards 1900 or bearish setups towards 1450
IF the price reaches the resistance zone at 1900, I want to start thinking in bullish setups towards 2070 or bearish setups towards 1680
I hope this post is helpful to better understand the difference between good and bad zones to develop setups. Remember becoming patient can be a POWERFULL edge on the market. Most of the people are not. Thanks for reading and feel free to share your view in the comments!
XAUUSD UpdateThe narrative on gold and silver is provided within the Weekly Update following status in my profile.
Gold: Weekly Forecast 6th February 2022Gold gained a little last week as it recovered strongly from a drop from the supply level at 1815.
The market continued to find support at a rising trendline and is most likely to climb further before another short-term sell off.
This week, we will look for buying opportunities, expecting the price to reach 1829 supply level.
Three Falling Peaks On The Gold Miners ETFThe Gold Miners don't look like they are setting up to have a very good time as they have made Three Consecutive Lower Highs and have penetrated the line of support it's been holding. Just from looking at this pattern and how we are trading in between the 55 and 200 week Moving Averages and Preparing a Weekly Death Cross it would seem that it is setting up for a +40% Decline in the near future so long as it continues to make Lower Highs.
Gold Update I continue to hold a bearish bias towards gold despite yesterdays recovery and a powerful bounce. Again it is too speculative to label the count. I do not dismiss the idea that whatever is happening now could be a leading diagonal. It is interesting to see how it corresponds to the crypto market. I will cover it in my Weekly Update.
Gold Price: 1D Chart ReviewHello friends, today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1D linear scale chart for the Gold price per ounce (GOLD).
The chart is self-explanatory. Keep a close eye on the RSI as a possible re-test of the Support and Resistance Line is coming soon.
Included in the chart: Trend line, Support and Resistance Line, RSI, Support Zone, Descending Parallel Channel, Ascending Broadening Wedge, Descending Broadening Wedge.
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
I have a bunch of additional recent charts below on cryptocurrencies, stocks, and other assets to review. Check them out!
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
COPPER LOOKS BEARISH ON INTRA-DAY - Elliott waveWe are tracking a big impulse to the downside, from the 4.58 lvl. on COPPER. Red waves 1 and 2 are completed, so current price action from 26th of January can be a big wave 3 in the making, with its five-wave substructure, and can target the Fib. ratio of 1.618, where support can be seen.
Intra-day price activity suggests a minor correction in action (iv), which can look for resistance at the fib. ratio of 0.382/0.5, from where a final leg lower for a sub-wave iii of 3 may show up.
Technical analysis update: Gold (31st January 2022)Gold took a beating after the last FOMC. It plunged below three important support levels: 1850 USD, 1835 USD and 1800 USD; additionally, this drop invalidated the recent bullish breakout above 1835 USD. The FED's commitment to raise interest rates multiple times in 2022 poses a substantial threat to gold price. The FED's aggressive stance towards raising interest rates forces us to reassess our views. We are currently inclined towards a bearish scenario as it is being signaled by bearish technical indicators and fundamental outlook for gold. We will closely watch 1775 USD and 1750 USD price levels. Previously, the 1750 USD support level acted as the lower bound of the neutral zone. If this price level is penetrated to the downside then it tremendously increases bearish odds for gold.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also shows the neutral zone that spans between 1750 USD and 1835 USD. Gold has been trading within this zone for most of the time for the past 6 months.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is bearish with signs of flattening. MACD points into the downside, however, it remains within the bullish zone. If it manages to cross below 0 then it will further bolster the bearish case for gold. Stochastic is bearish as well. Additionally, DM+ and DM- show a bearish trend is present. ADX increases which suggests that this trend strengthens.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD undergoes reversal just slightly above 0 points. Stochastic is bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish too. ADX declines which signals a trend of higher degree remains neutral.
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance lies at 1835 USD. Immediate resistance lies at 1800 USD. Closest support sits at 1775 USD. Other support which has great importance lies at 1750 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Gold UpdateDespite a very impulsive move, gold waves are difficult to count. I even assumed on this chart that the whole move could be wxy in wave 1 of a leading diagonal. There is no divergence on RSI meaning that there should be new lows very soon. At the same time gold can easily rip shorts in a very sharp countertrend move. Gold is notorious for doing wild unexpected swings that only later come together as jigsaw pieces of standard patterns.
I will refrain from labelling the smaller waves so far to let the count reveal itself.
Gold... an odd odesseyEver since August 2020, Gold has been acting odd. It has been ranging in a rather large range, and somewhat random IMHO.
The week ended strongly down with an engulfing candlestick that covered a six week range, ending at the lower end of the range with a lower low. This is a rather bearish indication IMHO.
The daily chart showed this near term bearish with a gap down and long bearish candles.
Oddly... appears that the adjusted downside target is 1700-1720; with a longer term upside back to 2000.
Just be wary... I am.
Technical analysis update: Gold (24th January 2022)Gold continues to trade slightly above the key technical level at 1835 USD. We continue to maintain a bullish view on XAUUSD. However, we would like to voice a word of caution as there is a FOMC meeting this week which may present itself with increased volatility in precious metals. Investors will get more clues on upcoming rate hikes and economic tightening which poses threat to the general stock market and cryptocurrencies. However, in turn, we think this is a positive catalyst for the price of gold. There is a very high likelihood of capital getting out of the cryptocurrency sector which is being hammered down by a strong downtrend (and which we predicted already in November 2021). We previously noted that this would cause rotation out of cryptocurrencies into more conservative assets like precious metals. We continue to maintain this same notion even today. Our short-term price target stays at 1850 USD while our medium-term price target is 1875 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD with volume indicated by green and red bars below it. Preferably we would like to see further increase in volume which would further boost the bullish case for gold.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD and Stochastic are all bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish too. ADX continues to increase which suggests that the bullish trend has resumed. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
MACD, RSI and Stochastic are all bullish, similarly like on the daily time frame. Same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX continues to undergo reset. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Support and resistance
Neutral zone appears between 1750 USD and 1835 USD which currently act as two very important supports. Closest resistance lies at 1877.14 USD. Another resistance above that is at 1916.615 USD. Major resistance lies at 2075.282 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Gold to $1675?Markets have priced in a March hike for some time, which takes the sting out of this form of tightening, and which could create the set-up for a 'sell-the-news' recovery in risk assets.
But, more importantly, participants have begun to question whether the strike on the Fed's put is further from the market, in a regime where the central bank is battling inflation and specifically combating a de-anchoring of inflation expectations. In this context, we think it's unlikely that the Fed will pivot from their plan to start hiking rates as soon as March and start quantitative tightening soon after. However, evidence that quantitative tightening might be more impactful for asset prices suggests that the Fed could still eventually use this policy tool to manage the strike on its put — without necessarily causing undue harm to its primary objective of keeping inflation expectations bounded.
For precious metals, this signals few immediate avenues for relief as the complex struggles to attract capital in the face of a hawkish Fed. The evidence continues to overwhelmingly point to Chinese purchases as the single largest source of inflows in past weeks, which are vulnerable with Lunar New Year around the corner. CTA trend followers are set to liquidate some gold length should prices break below $1810/oz.
©TDS CTA Tracker
The liquidation occurred, then we're now left with very little structure below to bounce from.
Because of that, I am looking to whether the trend followers push for the Sell Stops below $1675 to grab some liquidity and buy into that capitulation
$XAU - What's to come next?!$XAUUSD Gold - What's to come next?
Here's the reality of 2022 - Yields up, DXY up, Indices down and yes that even means crypto's down! This was all explained in my year ahead video. Linked Below
Why is this happening?
What an evening! We had the FOMC yesterday. Now as I stared on my last post regarding DXY - and I will explain further in this post Fed Hike expected March. This was displayed Q4 21 - Through the dot plot so for us professional traders the moves aren't surprising it's being priced in prior. Does this mean you've lost time for dollar bull run? NO! In trading there's always beautiful trade moves and this is why I am showing you GOLD - Where to next?
Technically we are within a bullish channel yet at support of the channel this area is a very key below 1810 area expected 1800 area to come into play being the 200 EMA. If not there could be a pull back as long as we don't go above 1830 areas - Bears are fully in control and I expect that pressure to continue short/medium term. I have had great opportunities being long DXY through various other products within swing and day trades and you can do the same! Search around and stick to your trade plan.
Key Tip: The trend is your friend, until it's broken.
Trade Safe,
Trade Journal
Wedge on gold over; more weakness in store - Elliott waveGOLD turned sharply to the downside yesterday in impulsive fashion, which is expected whenever a rising wedge or ending diagonal is being observed.
We see a sharp break below the lower ending diagonal line, and impulsive price action which is an inidcation that bears are in control on the 4h chart. Ideally gold is now making a new five-wave move for a higher degree wave C of (E). Be aware of temporary pullbacks (ii, iv).
Another break below the lower corrective parallel channel line would be another evidence for a bearish turn.
XAUUSD UpdateWell, what I can say. Last stronghold stood. I take yesterdays move as a confirmation of the bearish scenario we maintained since November 2021. See historical posts for the big picture or it is more convenient to read Weekly Updates on the website. Of course, it is too early to throw in a (beer) bear party, we'll keep quiet and watch. Wave i on the chart is only an illustration of the possible roadmap. It can be shallower or deeper, we will label it as soon as it takes shape. It would be good to offload some short before wave 2 kicks in, but we will not make hasty decisions. If the count is right we are in wave c and it can be brutal.
If the price recovers and takes out the previous high - I am out.
XAUUSD UpdateFeels like gold is still bullish pre-London. Damn it. This battle is taking way too long.
GDX Fake Out burns badIn the last post on GDX, it was mentioned:
"Oops... Gapped down later last week.
Again, more downside, watch for breaking of the range into the Buy Zone, and more importantly IF the support holds (white line)."
For most of the week, I looked like a fool... as GDX closed the gap, tested a minor support and then spiked a long candle above the daily 55EMA.
I have to be honest, I did relook and asked myself IF I missed something, misread or was biased.
And then comes Monday, and by midday of trading, the previous gap down is reopened. Together with re-entry of the consolidation zone (as expected), and a repeated failure of the daily 55EMA, this story now signals an exit on the other side of the consolidation zone.
Candlesticks (weekly and daily) all appear bearish, and not even needing to mention the technical indicators.
Notwithstanding, I am looking for a slight higher low from the 15 Dec low, in the Buy Zone marked, over the current week.
Have to keep reminding myself to be patient. When it happens, it will be very obvious.
Meanwhile, I am hanging on to my knickers! LMAO...
Correction on GOLD Points Up - Elliott waveGOLD is in a possible five-wave move, up from November of 2015. Ideally wave III found a top at 2075 lvl., which means current consolidation can be a wave IV triangle.
An impulsive break above the 1917 lvl. could suggest a completed correction in IV, and a five-wave lesser degree move for a wave V, aiming towards 2200.
Alternate count suggest a three-wave correction in wave IV; wave C can still be in play, support is at 1600/1585 area, near Fib. ratio of 50.0.
Count would be invalidated if price makes a sharp, five-wave drop, and a break below the 1376 invalidation lvl.
