Preciousmetals
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to attempt the push up, go into resistance where we wanted to short the market into the order region, and then look for the long trade back up from there on the RIP into the levels above. This went extremely well giving us a pin point move from level to level. During the week we updated the idea, which was already going to plan with a new bullish bias level and trade the new Excalibur activations upside into just below where we are now.
Plan worked well again giving an almost pip to pip, level to level reaction from our levels and following our bias and analysis posted pre-hand.
Well done to those that followed not only gold but the numerous other pairs we trade in Camelot which also gave us fantastic results for the week.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
This week we would say caution on long trades unless we get a pullback into key level support where we feel it’s worth a test, unless the higher levels aren’t taken on or during the early sessions of the week. We have an order region sitting above 2425-35 which is a large region, and if we see price attempt and give us a clean reversal there, we feel an opportunity to short the market is available for traders back down into the 2400 and below that 2385 price region which is where they may want to start to accumulate again. The issue we have here is that 2445-65 level which is a clean region of liquidity if they want to take it and stretch the sellers even more, so here we will caution again, as that level is the extension of the move, be prepared!
So, in practice what do we do?
Because we’re back in uncharted territory again, we’ll have to treat this as level to level play, we’ll look lower in the highlight region to go long, unless broken, and if they continue to take us up, we’ll trade it level to level looking for the ultimate short trade following our trusted guide.
KOG’s Bias for the week:
Bullish above 2395 with targets above 2430-35 and above that 2447
Bearish on break of 2395 with targets below 2375
It’s going to be a difficult week with potential of gaps on opening due to a Powell speech later, be fore market open! There is a lot of geopolitical news driving the markets and fear is present, although it’s looking like we’re going higher we would say caution over the week as a sudden turn will be extreme!
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
$SLV ETF Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern & Fibonacci ResistanceAMEX:SLV ETF Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern & 50% Fibonacci Resistance. Silver will need to consolidate before it can break higher to the blue line.
The Inverse Head & Shoulders (IHS) pattern is a bullish reversal pattern in technical analysis, typically appearing at the end of a downtrend. It is characterized by three distinct lows:
1. **Left Shoulder:** The initial low formed during the downtrend.
2. **Head:** A lower low, signifying a continuation of the downtrend but also a potential reversal point.
3. **Right Shoulder:** Another low, typically higher than the head, indicating weakening downward pressure.
The neckline of the IHS pattern is a resistance level drawn by connecting the highs between the left shoulder and head, and the head and right shoulder. When the price breaks above this neckline, it confirms the pattern and signals a potential reversal to an uptrend.
Traders often use the IHS pattern in conjunction with Fibonacci retracement levels to determine potential price targets. After the neckline breakout, the price is likely to retrace a portion of the initial move up before continuing higher. Common Fibonacci retracement levels used are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.
**Here's how the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern and Fibonacci resistance work together:**
1. **Identify the IHS Pattern:** Locate the left shoulder, head, right shoulder, and neckline on a price chart.
2. **Confirm the Breakout:** Wait for the price to break decisively above the neckline on increasing volume.
3. **Apply Fibonacci Retracement:** Draw Fibonacci retracement levels from the low of the head to the high of the right shoulder.
4. **Set Price Targets:** Look for potential resistance and profit-taking opportunities at the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels.
**Key Points:**
* The IHS pattern is a powerful bullish reversal signal.
* Fibonacci retracement levels can help identify potential price targets after the breakout.
* Traders should always combine the IHS pattern with other technical indicators and risk management strategies to improve their trading decisions.
**Disclaimer:** Technical analysis is not a foolproof method for predicting price movements. It's essential to conduct thorough research and consider various factors before making any investment decisions.
Silver Miners vs Silver SpotThis might be the explosion that will kickstart the silver stocks. This chart is showing a possible W formation that's about to break out... as well as the 25 weekly crossing the 52 weekly, which is usually pretty significant. Lastly, if it can break above the ichimoku cloud, then this ride might take off.
Cascade Copper may erupt soon!This copper exploration play is in a GREAT position.
Tight capital structure in great jurisdictions and with an awesome management team.
It could explode any time now -- especially with copper spot reaching all-time highs. If you're bullish copper, look at this now before you miss the boat. They are also exploring for other mineral plays, such as gold.
Above .6 cents and this could fly.
Side (fundamental) note: Former Alberta Premier Alison Redford is on the board. That is significant.
PLATINUM testing lower highs from 2000s for a +100% gainer?Precious Metals bulls: Platinum may be a sleeper. Gold and Silver strength makes the Platinum setup very juicy. Platinum looks set to break its chains and begin its move to retest the $2200 highs from years ago. Given geo-politics and inflation expectations, the bottom may be in.
Is the Silver to Gold Ratio due to tripleWallStSilver
Silver Bugs have had to bear many decades of no euphoric price action
Like the saying goes every dog has it's day
And in speculation a Bull market in one sector often means another sector get's neglected
Things don't move in lock step
It's just the nature of speculating/investing which we can't control but also offers us opportunity
I believe Silver should be a relative out-performer of most things (not all things)
And cheap prices
or cheap ratio's tilt the odds in your favour.
Silver Will Continue To Channel In Dual-Flag SetupIf you are trading Silver, you need to see this video. Be prepared for a sideways melt-up in Silver while the dual Flags play out.
Gold will likely move more aggressively than Silver. But Silver will give you two or three opportunities to buy into the lows.
Pay attention.
Golds pushed upwards from falling wedgeIn our video on 6 May we suggested that gold may be charting a bullish falling wedge. The precious metal has now broken out and is moving upwards from that pattern.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
GOLD - Bearish Correction Incoming!Gold / XAUUSD has potential for a small bullish pump over the next few days; followed by a bearish correction.
We have some Buy Signal Momentum currently going; it hasn't ended yet but this current bar is displaying it; this implies now is still considered to be a good time to buy but may not be tomorrow! The buy rating started at 1☆ and is closing at a 2☆; this may imply a push back to the $2474 region.
Gold has consolidated for quite awhile meaning that it's RSI has had some time to cool down and is now relatively neutral at 55; however our YinYang RSI is still saying quite overvalued and that a dump is underway.
Conclusion: A small pump may occur over the next few days; however we don't think this is long term. We believe Gold may get rejected ~2474 and continue in a downtrend towards the 2190 region.
Stock market weakness affects goldGold retreated over $100 from its all-time highs established earlier this month. Interestingly, this move down follows a pullback of similar magnitude in the U.S. stock market, which we have repeatedly referred to as a threat to gold’s spectacular performance; one minor detail to point out here is that this time around, gold seems to be falling in reaction to what has been happening in the stock market, unlike in previous corrections throughout 2023 and 2024, when gold either preceded weakness in stocks or did not react to it. But now, the stock market appears to be at a critical point of either breaking down or staging a recovery, with many big names reporting their earnings this week, which can help to achieve one of these objectives. If corporate results do not meet investors’ expectations and, by any chance, there are significant downgrades to future guidance along with announcements of new layoffs, then it is unlikely the situation will calm investors’ nerves and lead to recovery. Contrarily, it is more likely to produce more fear among market participants, which could inadvertently lead to more selling in the stock market, accompanied by weakness in gold.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily graph of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. The area between $2,000 and $2,075 acts as an important base in the case of a strong stock market selloff.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 depicts XAUUSD’s RSI on the weekly timeframe. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover, a worrisome sign for gold. The same crossover can also be observed on the daily chart; besides that, Stochastic and MACD also reversed to the downside.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bullish (stalling with bearish signs)
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Gold regaining uptrendthe gold market this year has essentially only seen upside. since all time highs theres been a run on available contracts during a contraction that has ended suddenly.
it appears that todays rally has been sustained, and the uptrend in futures has all but resumed according to a credit liquidity crunch and bear dollar environment.
according to tv alerts, forex and gold strategies the risk/reward for gold is long on multiple time frames up to 4hrs.
Silver to $38The move from March 2020 to August 2020
Was a measured move that played out to the Tee.
We have a similar structure building that projects to the High 30's
Suggesting #Gold move beyond ATH's and #Silver the beta play to move faster in an attempt to catch up, and move towards it's high's again.
A breakout has just started on the weekly!Had to take a position on this today! Sprott is the largest holder (with 165 million shares). This long-term chart looks very similiar to Jaguar Mining (another Sprott company) that has taken off. A reverse head and shoulders forming on the monthly chart. It could still bounce sideways to lower in the near-term. If so, I doubt it will be dramatic. Could be an easy 10x from here.
The Supply Zone Keeping a Lid on GoldGold (June) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2388.4, down 19.4
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 28.40, down 0.024
Gold has traded fairly constructive on the week given Friday’s sharp reversal but the overhead supply resulting from this reversal is apparent at major three-star resistance at 2404.3-2408.5 and 2412.9-2414.8. A close above these levels would theoretically begin neutralizing Friday’s reversal and invite fresh buying. While Silver has not retraced as much as Gold, its path too has been constructive but there is a clear psychological barrier at the $29 mark.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2404.3-2408.5***, 2412.9-2414.8***, 2425.6**, 2337.3-2448.8***, 2466.5***, 2539.3-2560.1****
Pivot: 2395
Support: 2387-2489.6**, 2378.2***, 2365.8-2370.7*(**, 2360.2-2362.6***, 2348.1-2351***, 2327.1-2343.1****
Silver (May)
Resistance: 28.69-23.75**, 28.88-28.90**, 29.05-29.22***, 29.88-30.35***
Pivot: 28.56
Support: 23.44**, 28.36**, 28.14-28.18**, 28.03*, 27.93**, 27.64-27.76***, 27.34-27.51***, 26.93-26.97***, 26.40-26.48***
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CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Gold stuggles at the Highs of the weekly range 2,393 🪙Hello traders.. gold has been making all time highs. The last all time high was created with consumer sentiment news that miss forecast for the USD last friday. Since then we've been going sideways and are currently in a 4hr range between 2,393 and 2,360. The weekly candle is bullish & the last 2 daily candles have closed bearish. The 1hr candle is currently bearish during Thursday NYSE as price appears to be rejecting the Daily resistance (2,383) once more. We may retrace back to the bottom of the range at 2,360
GOLD v DXY in breakout move --- HVF hunt volatility funnelAlways good to measure against the DXY not just the USD value
Not perfect of course as it is mainly the Euro and Yen but still insightful.
Been watching the relationship for a while
currently breaking out to the upside
HVF theory means this should be a violent expansion
Target 1 coming up.