XAU/USD Analysis, AMAZING entry to ride this trendHello Traders!
It's about time I begin to expand my Technical Analysis to more assets than just Cryptocurrency. So here we are, with a really solid entry into what could end up being one of the largest bull markets for Gold that we have ever seen.
I don't feel like I need to do a deep-dive into the fundamentals as to what makes Gold a good investment, there are much more intelligent and knowledgeable people to listen to than I. So I will offer just my Technical perspective.
My main directional bias here is, of course, going to be the nested Measured Move Traditional series from the 2015 Gold low. Not to mention that the 2015 Low was a perfect Traditional 50% entry that has still YET to reach it's Profit Target of $2,310. Adding to the directional bias and what makes me think we will be seeing a large rally soon is the way price has reacted to the main Correction Channel on the chart. The reversals off of the Lower Boundary and now the reversal off of the Median Line of the same channel really aid the probability of Gold going up and reaching target(s).
Just as easy that this asset can go to it's target, we could break the established low and reach the MM SHORT target at $1690. When it comes to probability of which will happen, I would say we are at a 50/50 chance of reaching the MM Short target, which just happens to be perfectly confluent with our 2nd entry in the Nested MM Long from the 2015 low. The only aspect of this current setup that makes me think we will NOT see $1,690 is the way price has been adhering to the Correction Channel.
For us retail traders, we are trading the Nested MM Traditional series here as, most of us, are unable to trade such ridiculously large setups with an appropriate risk profile like the institutions are able to.
Some key levels to pay attention to...
Entry 1: $1,760 (already triggered)
Entry 2: $1,690
Directional Stop: $1,634
Nested MM Target 1: $2,222
Nested MM Target 2: Trailing Stop
Larger Degree MM Target: $2,310
I hope you guys enjoy this analysis! If there are other asset classes you all would like to see, please comment below! I will be covering Silver (XAUUSD) and GOLDSILVER very shortly as well.
Thanks!
Happy Trading, always manage your risk.
Preciousmetals
GOLD LongI will be entering a swing long in Gold here.
It is somewhat risky given the downward pressure on Gold and the current correlation with equities but I believe the R/R to be very favorable here.
This is also based on my fundamental view of future monetary and fiscal policy.
The Fed has painted themselves into a corner where they are forced to employ ever more accomodating monetary policy.
This is unlikely to change given that they choose to ignore the obvious signs of inflation, pointing to the CPI which is clearly an inaccurate measure of actual inflation.
Furthermore, they have expressed that they are not really concerned about inflation anyways, and that maximum employment is their primary objective even if it comes with the cost of higher inflation.
The market seems to be pricing in a surprise increase in interest rates, but that's highly unlikely to happen given the reasons above and the fact that the Fed has said they will warn the markets before any rate hike is implemented.
What's more likely is that the Fed will continue their accomodative policy and buy bonds to force yields back down.
On the fiscal side, ever larger stimulus bills continue to be passed, primarily stimulating the demand side while the supply side is still shut down.
Even if we start opening up, it will take some time for the supply side to increase production sufficiently to cover the pent-up demand in the economy.
Based on these reasons I'm entering a swing long position with a wide stop in case there's a spike down to hunt stops.
Trade at you own risk.
Silver 34$ in 3 weeksStrong upward pressure continues for silver. Silver bullion is scarce and the futures market is just now catching up. If you look at price of actual silver you will see why I say 34$ by march.
Its possible price will break through and move even higher to 37$ or 40$.
The public opinion of stocks and bonds being reliable securities is dwindling. People are turning to tangible assets. Land, Gold, Silver. Current price of Silver Is far beyond the spot price. You cannot find silver for sale anywhere near the current price of 27 - 28 dollars.
Looks like silver is about to make a large up move.Silver closed strongly this week, however that is not surprising. All 4 cycles are up - the large cycle, the medium term cycle, the daily cycle and the hourly cycle.
At the same time, silver with about 6 hours left of trading yesterday made a push higher just in tact with the recent trend line and closed back above it on a weekly basis - signalling us to go long. It is very interesting to observe how perfectly trend lines work, pure magic.
As long as we don't get a close below 26.9 - the buy signal remains. I expect silver to reach the 32.5-33.75 trading range by February 23rd, then we could potentially stall out a little bit till cycles bottom early March before the next up leg that will take us to 40 in mid April. Remain tuned for fresh updates. Today I will post several more updates regarding related instruments and prove the fact that silver is about to explode. Remember futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Thanks a lot.
The Future of the Gold MarketThe precious metals market is on a rampage, and if the trend continues without government intervention, this is how I believe things will play out.
Please keep in mind, I do not have a crystal ball. Things can and will change.
For example, if the federal reserve starts tightening through interest rates because their motive becomes focused on maintaining dollar strength, they have the ability to reverse this trend for a period of time.
The end result will always be higher gold prices, but the timing may be changed by intervention from government agencies.
Now that we have that out of the way... Here's what I expect from gold, which will also effect how the other metals move.
A large cup and handle pattern has been established on the monthly chart for gold. This basically means a high was set at $1920 and a big wash-out bottom took place shaking all the weak hands out of the market. Now it is ready to make a move similar to the start of 2000 and 1977.
There is a good chance of a pullback this or next year. I believe support will be held in the $1800-1900 area. If we are lucky, price will get smashed down to $1600, but don't hold your breath.
Why do I root for lower prices? Because lower prices give people who haven't gotten they metal yet a chance to participate.
With all the money printing taking place at the fed and reckless spending of the federal government, mass inflation was bound to happen.
Other metals like SI1! and PL1! to follow suite. Gold will typically make the move before they do, so it is key to watch the gold market.
More updates to come.
- Micah
GOLD FUTURES 1D TF SET ALERTS FOR GOLDS DROP TO THE BOTTOM OF THE CHANNEL , LOST THE SUPPORT OF THE 200EMA AT THE PRESENT AND THE DXY MAKING A BIT OF A COMEBACK HAS PUT THE PRESSURE ON GOLD . WITH THAT SAID WE ALL KNOW THAT THE FED JUST KEEPS PRINTING SO SET ALERTS FOR THE BOTTOM OF THE CHANNEL BEFORE FILLING LONGS AND WATCH THE REACTION FIRST . TARGETS ARE LAID OUT ON CHART ... LIKE AND FOLLOW WOULD BE GREAT
Flag forming in Gold. $2,200 possible within the yearGold has been consolidating and retracting in volume. It looks coiled to break-out past previous resistance. The 50,100, and 200-day moving averages are on the verge of intersecting and hopefully reversing course in a more bullish direction.
Signal to buy should be when shorter-term MA's breakthrough 200-day.
RSI, MACD, and Gold spot prices have been declining in unison. RSI signals it is not overbought and MACD is signaling buy which gives this trade some legs and breathing room.
On the fundamental side, gold is the most resistant to rust and corrosion, making it the most reliable and durable electrical conductor. It is key for computer and satellite technology. If Starlink is going to become a reality, regardless of whether or not it does so under the umbrella of Tesla or by IPO'ing, they will need a lot of gold to make those satellites low maintenance.
Gold is also essential in the production of green technology and it is essential for healthcare and our digital world.
I expect spot prices of $2,200 within the year and at least $2,500 by 2022.
Hummingbird Resources set to bounce from channel's bottomHummingbird Resources LSE:HUM is a gold miner, which stocks are traded on the London Stock Exchange.
It benefits from a very low valuation with a PER of less than 4 at the time of publishing.
After a lengthy consolidation inside a descending channel the stock price now hits the lower channel's boundary in a super oversold condition.
It is time for a bounce in direction of the upper channel boundary, before expecting a channel's break to the upside.
Never Mind Short Squeezes. Silver Appears BullishSilver was in focus last week on talk of a short squeeze. The attempt fell flat, but the white metal’s technicals could be lining up for a rally regardless.
The first chart feature is the huge breakout above $20 in July. This was confirmed by retests on September 24 and November 30. Notice how prices rebounded sharply from both attempts. Interestingly, the bottoms around $22 were near the peak in July 2014, before silver collapsed decisively under $20 (where it would spend most of the next six years).
Next is the descending trendline that began after the 2020 spike. XAGUSD spent more than a month fighting against that resistance before turning it into support in late January.
Third, notice how prices held $26 last week. That was the peak on November 9 (vaccine rally day for stocks) and the weeks begun January 11 and 18. Again, old resistance became new support.
MACD is also rising on the daily chart and just turned higher on the weekly chart (see above).
Finally, the U.S. dollar has been holding its ground for the last two months. However, the greenback’s longer-term trend is still bearish. Continuation of that slide would also potentially help silver.
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Platinum looking strong bullHello!
Platinum looking really bullish. We got here a beatiful higher low pattern and a vertical line which has worked as resistance.
This resistance has been tested 4 times. What I have seen usually 5th or 6th time does it.
Also RSI has already broke it's own the resistance line and used it even as a support. This gives me a strong bullish view.
Platinums demand is also getting bigger. Car makers are starting to use platinum instead of expensive palladium on exhaust systems.
If you are not holding for long term and are trading. Use stop loss.
Otherwise you will get your ass burned!
Take care
Jebu
Technical Analysis and OutlookTechnical Analysis and Outlook
The continuous Silver action keeps the price above Mean Sup $26.250 . Silver's upside at this super bull rally is high; however, the downside low probability pullback should be to the Key Sup $24.750 - If it happens at all. To continue the rest of the market story, see the 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For February 1, 2021" at the usual site.