Getting excited about Silver? 3LSI says, "Not yet". Good rise for silver since it tanked in March, but no need to get excited just yet.
Now it has to get past 200 EMA (280) and 313 resistance to start a bullish trend.
Preciousmetals
XAU Short Target met! Reversal?Hello Traders,
Keeping this one short with a quick update on Gold. This entry looks great as the Short target has been met which means buying pressure is increasing.
This $1,690 Profit target level is also confluent with the 2nd Long entry in this setup, which should lead to even more buying pressure.
Another beautiful point of confluence is the Lower Boundary of the Correction Channel.
I'll have my previous analysis of this pair tagged for transparency, this is the 2nd entry of the Long.
That's all for now!
Happy Trading, always manage risk.
Quality in trading means the ability to react to ones personal psyche
Inflation Coming? Gold About to Enter Bear Market! $1690 is critical for gold to hold. Should it close below that level (marked by the Red Indicator line), we will think of shorting gold.
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How to understand price action.
It is very easy to read price action if you have a reference point. These support/resistance lines are there to help you read where the buyers and sellers are likely to make a stand.
You can also think of these indicators as moving pivot points .
MasterChartsTrading Price Action Indicators show good price levels to enter or exit a trade.
The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter.
If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long (buying).
For commodities and Forex, when your trading instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting (selling).
For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts). A stock has to close below the Yellow line first, then rally towards the Red line and top out there. This is where I would short it.
Be sure to hit that Follow button! Please find me on social networks via the link on my profile page for more ideas from @MasterCharts!
Global Quad 2I want to apologize for my lack of activity the past few months. A lot has changed in the markets and a lot has evolved in my approach to reading and navigating the markets. When it comes to my process, I have added the use of multiple lenses beginning first with a fundamental macro overlay called the GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) Quad Model, which give us 4 possible macroeconomic environments on a rate of change basis that we are in and could be headed towards. This model protected investors in advance of the 2020 crash with big positions in cash, bonds, and puts and it had its users in Gold and TLT from 3Q2018 until 3Q20. This model also has its users begin shorting USDs and buying commodities and Emerging markets beginning in May 2020. It is impossible to be perfect in markets and the model has made mistakes but overall it has convinced me it is a model worth using and paying attention to.
Currently the GIP Model is showing the global economy already in Quad 2 and headed towards a Deep Quad 2 topping out by the 2nd quarter of 2021. Quad 2 is the macroeconomic environment where both economic growth and inflation are accelerating simultaneously. What many equity bears, bond bulls, and gold bulls are missing is that in 1Q20 the global economy hit rock bottom and there is only one direction out of an absolute rock bottom. Whether that's going sideways, a slow grind higher, or a better than expected recovery, all of those outcomes give us something that is better than what the economy was in the March of 2020. It is all about the Rate of Change, this is what the market cares about. Yes, we are in a recession, but the direction the economy is headed right now is different than the direction it was headed in at the start of 2020.
On the Margin, a Biden-Kamala administration means:
- Less trade war with both allies and foes. A move away from nationalism and isolationism.
- Continued push for more stimulus
- Giving the Federal Reserve the power to spend not just lend. Retail Central Bank accounts with digital currency stimulus checks etc..
- Possible stimulus directly from the executive branch
- Republicans forget that Biden and Kamala are corporatists first and foremost and not nearly as far left as Fox news says.
So, this means $DXY continues its downtrend, potentially hitting 80, 70, and maybe a new all-time low over the next 4 years.
In the short-term, DXY's trend range is 91-88. Many Gold Bulls are confused why Gold and Silver haven't rallied to new highs despite DXY dropping to new lows, and the reason is because yields have risen alongside expectations for slightly better growth in 2021, higher growth expectations means investors will want to take on more risk in stocks and commodities over yield-sensitive safe havens like bonds and precious metals. AT THE SAME TIME, I still think silver miners and junior miners can do alright in Quad 2 even as the metals themselves stagnate because the amount of money the miners are making is pretty ridiculous. The miners that are well-positioned to expand production into an elevated gold price environment will have accelerating earnings which makes their stock attractive. An example of such a stock is $AUMN Golden Minerals.
You really can't go wrong with anything in the commodities. Since the election energy, materials, and industrials have been great places to be. I think energy will continue to be a strong winner. That includes USOIL, Natural Gas, and Uranium. I think the agriculture complex can surprise to upside, including oranges, cocoa, coffee, and cattle. And the Covid losers, in general, will continue to outperform the Covid winners if yields continue to rise (study the US10Y) which is spurred by increases in expectations for future growth and inflation. This is why Copper has been smoking gold lately. Another way to play the steepening yield curve, is $IVOL, which is a low volatility and asymmetric way to play interest rates if you think bonds are overpriced.
So to summarize: Bearish on bonds until Q2 of 2020, Bullish on global equities, Bearish on the US Dollar, Bearish on VIX, and on the margin bearish gold and neutral on silver, but bullish on some of the well-positioned gold and silver equities. Once this Quad 2 growth peaks in Q2, or maybe the model output pulls the probability forward of growth peaking in late Q1, whenever that point ends up being we will pivot towards being long gold and silver and shorting Chinese stocks, Oil, Russell 2000, Nasdaq, Financials, etc. but that will be later in 2021 with a Quad 3 or 4 environments (Quad 3 rising inflation falling growth, Quad 4 Falling inflation falling growth).
Basically the bullish case is this:
- Economy hit rock-bottom in March
- Fed overshot monetary policy by a mile
- Fiscal stimulus was like 10x the 2009 Fiscal stimulus
- A lot more stim is on the way with Biden-Kamala
- Biden-Kamala also means more global trade, less volatility in foreign policy
- Travel restrictions become loosened as vaccine distributions take place
- Highly unlikely that most of the USA and most of the world ever sees anymore covid shutdowns
Inverted Head & Shoulders on Gold #LONGANTICIPATION LEVELS THROUGH THE ROOF
Long term outlook on XAUUSD - Inverted H&S to the upside!
No FOMO. Let's standby for NFP as it may act as he catalyst we've been waiting for.
16XX here we come, thereafter to the moon. 2K without a doubt.
No luck needed with this one. All the best
GOLD Bullish DivergenceGold has been a painful trade for the past 6 months. The last week has been very heavy on the PM's market overall. Gold is very oversold in the Daily TF and just now put in a bullish divergence (RSI and Squeeze Momentum) on the 2hr TF. I will personally consider the short-term bottom in if/when gold reclaims $1760 level.
PLG - Bull Flag OpportunityAs a continuation from my first post, we have such a great opportunity for a 150% gain in AMEX:PLG from where we are right now. TVC:PLATINUM has broken out of it's long-term resistance (shown here: ) and we are seeing capitulation within the precious metals sector. I don't expect us to stay here long! Don't miss out!
The featured content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. Everything shared here is my own opinion. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances.
What's Next for Gold?As a continuation from my original post, , we've seen a false breakout followed by more sideways consolidation.
Has everyone thrown in the towel on TVC:GOLD yet? If so, we've hit the bottom and get ready for the breakout! But if not, prepare for one FINAL flush to $1675. Regardless of what scenario happens, we won't be there for long!
Inflation AND higher gold prices ARE coming. Get ready!
The featured content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. Everything shared here is my own opinion. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances.
My forsecast in Gold for the coming days.Based on my opinion we just reach a bottom. I think it will follow the trend of the last bottom. My sentiment when we reach resistance again at level 1960-1965 is bullish. Let me know what you think.
PLG: Bull-Flag Potential TargetAMEX:PLG has a potential bull-flag pattern currently playing out. While PLG can still continue to grind lower, a break to the upside of this pattern will give us an official SCOTCHstocks initial target of $9.30, with a possible overshoot.
Everything shared here is my own opinion and no results are guaranteed. Good luck!
Silver: Buy the Dip or More Downside Risk Ahead?The bias for TVC:SILVER remains to the upside. The recent slight bounce in the dollar, which has occurred sooner than originally expected, has contributed to last Friday's selloff in commodities. Until proven otherwise on the chart, this recent shakeout remains a buy the dip opportunity and a great place for new buyers to establish initial positions.
Everything shared here is only my opinion and no results are guaranteed. Good luck!
GOLD// Long OpportunityPrice has been moving within this descending channel for quite some time.
Price has printed multiple Harmonic Patterns with this one being a Gartley. I'll be looking for a quick "scalp" from the 1D.
This M pattern is one of my favorites because it is a reversal pattern that almost always retraces 38%. However I will be looking for a retracement of 50% to meet the TL where we will have a possible break. Many are expecting the flag to break soon however, there is still the possibility for another leg down in my opinion. Time will tell.
Let me hear your thoughts.
XAU/USD Analysis, AMAZING entry to ride this trendHello Traders!
It's about time I begin to expand my Technical Analysis to more assets than just Cryptocurrency. So here we are, with a really solid entry into what could end up being one of the largest bull markets for Gold that we have ever seen.
I don't feel like I need to do a deep-dive into the fundamentals as to what makes Gold a good investment, there are much more intelligent and knowledgeable people to listen to than I. So I will offer just my Technical perspective.
My main directional bias here is, of course, going to be the nested Measured Move Traditional series from the 2015 Gold low. Not to mention that the 2015 Low was a perfect Traditional 50% entry that has still YET to reach it's Profit Target of $2,310. Adding to the directional bias and what makes me think we will be seeing a large rally soon is the way price has reacted to the main Correction Channel on the chart. The reversals off of the Lower Boundary and now the reversal off of the Median Line of the same channel really aid the probability of Gold going up and reaching target(s).
Just as easy that this asset can go to it's target, we could break the established low and reach the MM SHORT target at $1690. When it comes to probability of which will happen, I would say we are at a 50/50 chance of reaching the MM Short target, which just happens to be perfectly confluent with our 2nd entry in the Nested MM Long from the 2015 low. The only aspect of this current setup that makes me think we will NOT see $1,690 is the way price has been adhering to the Correction Channel.
For us retail traders, we are trading the Nested MM Traditional series here as, most of us, are unable to trade such ridiculously large setups with an appropriate risk profile like the institutions are able to.
Some key levels to pay attention to...
Entry 1: $1,760 (already triggered)
Entry 2: $1,690
Directional Stop: $1,634
Nested MM Target 1: $2,222
Nested MM Target 2: Trailing Stop
Larger Degree MM Target: $2,310
I hope you guys enjoy this analysis! If there are other asset classes you all would like to see, please comment below! I will be covering Silver (XAUUSD) and GOLDSILVER very shortly as well.
Thanks!
Happy Trading, always manage your risk.
GOLD LongI will be entering a swing long in Gold here.
It is somewhat risky given the downward pressure on Gold and the current correlation with equities but I believe the R/R to be very favorable here.
This is also based on my fundamental view of future monetary and fiscal policy.
The Fed has painted themselves into a corner where they are forced to employ ever more accomodating monetary policy.
This is unlikely to change given that they choose to ignore the obvious signs of inflation, pointing to the CPI which is clearly an inaccurate measure of actual inflation.
Furthermore, they have expressed that they are not really concerned about inflation anyways, and that maximum employment is their primary objective even if it comes with the cost of higher inflation.
The market seems to be pricing in a surprise increase in interest rates, but that's highly unlikely to happen given the reasons above and the fact that the Fed has said they will warn the markets before any rate hike is implemented.
What's more likely is that the Fed will continue their accomodative policy and buy bonds to force yields back down.
On the fiscal side, ever larger stimulus bills continue to be passed, primarily stimulating the demand side while the supply side is still shut down.
Even if we start opening up, it will take some time for the supply side to increase production sufficiently to cover the pent-up demand in the economy.
Based on these reasons I'm entering a swing long position with a wide stop in case there's a spike down to hunt stops.
Trade at you own risk.
Update on GOLD $GLD Price action looking to complete the right hand shoulder pattern. If we do complete this and not breakdown further, we are going back to the 2020 ATH and on target for a run to $2500 - $2900.
Gold $1650XauUsd Broke the trend line and very close to break the November low. If that happens very likely is heading to $1650.
Silver 34$ in 3 weeksStrong upward pressure continues for silver. Silver bullion is scarce and the futures market is just now catching up. If you look at price of actual silver you will see why I say 34$ by march.
Its possible price will break through and move even higher to 37$ or 40$.
The public opinion of stocks and bonds being reliable securities is dwindling. People are turning to tangible assets. Land, Gold, Silver. Current price of Silver Is far beyond the spot price. You cannot find silver for sale anywhere near the current price of 27 - 28 dollars.
Looks like silver is about to make a large up move.Silver closed strongly this week, however that is not surprising. All 4 cycles are up - the large cycle, the medium term cycle, the daily cycle and the hourly cycle.
At the same time, silver with about 6 hours left of trading yesterday made a push higher just in tact with the recent trend line and closed back above it on a weekly basis - signalling us to go long. It is very interesting to observe how perfectly trend lines work, pure magic.
As long as we don't get a close below 26.9 - the buy signal remains. I expect silver to reach the 32.5-33.75 trading range by February 23rd, then we could potentially stall out a little bit till cycles bottom early March before the next up leg that will take us to 40 in mid April. Remain tuned for fresh updates. Today I will post several more updates regarding related instruments and prove the fact that silver is about to explode. Remember futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Thanks a lot.
$PL1! Platinum Futures. Would love to see a test of $1040Wishful thinking perhaps, but a test of $1040 support and then a move up will be very bullish for platinum. Lots of upside potential here.
The Future of the Gold MarketThe precious metals market is on a rampage, and if the trend continues without government intervention, this is how I believe things will play out.
Please keep in mind, I do not have a crystal ball. Things can and will change.
For example, if the federal reserve starts tightening through interest rates because their motive becomes focused on maintaining dollar strength, they have the ability to reverse this trend for a period of time.
The end result will always be higher gold prices, but the timing may be changed by intervention from government agencies.
Now that we have that out of the way... Here's what I expect from gold, which will also effect how the other metals move.
A large cup and handle pattern has been established on the monthly chart for gold. This basically means a high was set at $1920 and a big wash-out bottom took place shaking all the weak hands out of the market. Now it is ready to make a move similar to the start of 2000 and 1977.
There is a good chance of a pullback this or next year. I believe support will be held in the $1800-1900 area. If we are lucky, price will get smashed down to $1600, but don't hold your breath.
Why do I root for lower prices? Because lower prices give people who haven't gotten they metal yet a chance to participate.
With all the money printing taking place at the fed and reckless spending of the federal government, mass inflation was bound to happen.
Other metals like SI1! and PL1! to follow suite. Gold will typically make the move before they do, so it is key to watch the gold market.
More updates to come.
- Micah
GOLD FUTURES 1D TF SET ALERTS FOR GOLDS DROP TO THE BOTTOM OF THE CHANNEL , LOST THE SUPPORT OF THE 200EMA AT THE PRESENT AND THE DXY MAKING A BIT OF A COMEBACK HAS PUT THE PRESSURE ON GOLD . WITH THAT SAID WE ALL KNOW THAT THE FED JUST KEEPS PRINTING SO SET ALERTS FOR THE BOTTOM OF THE CHANNEL BEFORE FILLING LONGS AND WATCH THE REACTION FIRST . TARGETS ARE LAID OUT ON CHART ... LIKE AND FOLLOW WOULD BE GREAT
Flag forming in Gold. $2,200 possible within the yearGold has been consolidating and retracting in volume. It looks coiled to break-out past previous resistance. The 50,100, and 200-day moving averages are on the verge of intersecting and hopefully reversing course in a more bullish direction.
Signal to buy should be when shorter-term MA's breakthrough 200-day.
RSI, MACD, and Gold spot prices have been declining in unison. RSI signals it is not overbought and MACD is signaling buy which gives this trade some legs and breathing room.
On the fundamental side, gold is the most resistant to rust and corrosion, making it the most reliable and durable electrical conductor. It is key for computer and satellite technology. If Starlink is going to become a reality, regardless of whether or not it does so under the umbrella of Tesla or by IPO'ing, they will need a lot of gold to make those satellites low maintenance.
Gold is also essential in the production of green technology and it is essential for healthcare and our digital world.
I expect spot prices of $2,200 within the year and at least $2,500 by 2022.
