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Preciousmetals

If Support Breaks, Where Does Silver Go?Gold (June) / Silver (May) Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2348.4, down 14.0 Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 28.052, up 0.068 Yesterday’s warm CPI and weak 10-year auction paved the way for a much-needed consolidation day for Gold and Silver. Still, the precious metals complex battled valiantly, exuding bull market trends within the intraday swings. Geopolitical headlines are certainly helping to stave off indiscriminate selling, but we now look to another slate of inflation data via PPI, coupled with an ECB policy decision this morning and a 30-year Bond auction at noon CT. Silver futures even went as far as setting a new local high after yesterday’s CPI data, but the broad risk-off undertow was just too much. Construction in Silver out above yesterday’s low of 27.64-27.76 and support aligning with Gold’s low of 2340.1-2343.1 should help fuel a bull continuation into the weekend. In the event of further weakness, we have additional levels of significant support highlighted below. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 2363.7-2364.1**, 2369.4-2371***, 2380.2-2384.5***, 2400**, 2466.5***, 2539.3-2560.1**** Pivot: 2355 Support: 2348.1-2351***, 2340.1-2343.1***, 2334.2-2337.1***, 2321.7-2325.3***, 2315.7**, 2298.7-2299.6***, 2285.7-2286.2***, 2279-2281.8*** Silver (May) Resistance: 28.15-28.24**, 28.39-28.44**, 28.57-28.66***, 28.71-28.90**, 29.22***, 29.88-30.35*** Pivot: 28.05 Support: 27.84-27.90**, 27.64-27.76***, 27.34-27.51***, 26.93-26.97***, 26.40-26.48*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:SI1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Can Gold run to $3000/oz?How will you capitalize when Gold is up $500 on a Sunday night? I am not looking for an answer; we futures traders think about it. Gold futures this week reached new all-time highs as anxiety surrounding an escalation between Israel and Iran (OPEC member) pushed the CRB index to its highest level since October as the raw materials basket entered the new bullish phase. Silver futures jumped to new contract highs, and Crude Oil futures reached their highest levels since last October. Historically, commodities have proven to be the best asset class to own just before the Fed cuts rates because supplies often remain limited while demand accelerates. Friday morning's blockbuster payroll data (303k vs. 200k exp.) brings up another question I often ask: If we have strong jobs, consumer spending, and GDP growth, why does the Fed even need to cut rates? Fed officials pushed back on interest rate cut expectations to try and help boost the U.S. Dollar. Why would they do such a thing? A strong Dollar can help them regain control over inflation. It will also make exports look expensive and cheap imports look like bargains. The critical level to watch in the Dollar Index is 105, a close above that could temporarily halt the rise in precious metals. Taking it to the Charts Central Bank buying, ETF inflows, and geopolitical safe-haven buying all helped Gold futures surge this week. Futures continue to show resiliency with initial support at $2255, followed by $2005. Your "line in the sand" is pocket support at $2170-65, where any close below this level should spark further liquidation www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Phil_Blue_Line
Inflation, and the coming SILVER PRICE EXPLOSION! As central banks around the world are losing their grip on baskets full of fiat currencies, real, tangible commodities like Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium are going to make an incredible run. There are three metals related to monetary systems throughout history: gold, silver and copper. So far we've seen gold pull ahead in the running, but soon silver will running it down with veracity! Good luck, and always use a stop-loss!
TVC:SILVERLong
by MetaShackle
PLatinum shaping up for a ton of upside to $1,132 tech and fundsBox Formation and W Formation is showing on the Daily chart of PLatinum. We do need the price to close above the neckline of both patterns to really confirm upside to come. So far the MAs are also confirming a bullish inclination along with the rising uptrend. Price >20 and crossing 200MA Bullish bias Target $1,132 Let's drill into the fundamentals for the rising PLatinum price One of the significant reasons for the price increase is the deepening supply deficit that was observed in 2023, which is expected to continue into 2024. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) had revised its expectations for the platinum deficit in 2023 to nearly twice its initial estimate, highlighting a considerable shortfall in supply against demand​ (INN)​. This deficit is largely due to decreased supply, with production challenges in major platinum-producing countries like South Africa, where mines have faced electricity issues leading to production deficits. Despite some improvements in production, the overall global output of platinum decreased year-on-year, while demand, particularly from the automotive sector and for investment purposes, has seen a notable increase​ (INN)​. Also, the demand for platinum in the production of green hydrogen, which uses platinum-group metals (PGMs) as catalysts, is also contributing to the increased demand. The green hydrogen sector, which focuses on producing hydrogen from renewable sources, has seen significant investment, further boosting platinum demand​ (INN)​. The auto sector, a major consumer of platinum due to its use in catalytic converters, has begun to return to pre-pandemic production levels, further straining the available platinum supply​ (INN)​. And investment demand for platinum is expected to rise, with projections indicating an increase in platinum bar and coin demand to a three-year high, as manufacturers in North America and Europe allocate more capacity to platinum due to weaker demand for gold and silver​ (The future of trading)​. All giving great buying signs for the precious metal.
NYMEX:PL1!Long
by Timonrosso
A comprehensive look at gold's volatile history during crisesIt is often said that gold tends to perform well during economic uncertainty and crisis. But is this really so? Let’s examine gold's volatile history before and during recessions in the past 50 years. The 1960s and 1970s were marked by many economic and geopolitical changes, including multiple crises of the British pound, the collapse of the London Gold Pool, the suspension of a gold standard, and the end of the Bretton Woods System. These events helped to reshape the global monetary system and the role of gold within it. Before U.S. President Richard Nixon's “temporary” suspension of gold’s convertibility to the U.S. dollar, gold was pegged at $35 per troy ounce and allowed to move within a certain band around this level. However, following the breakage of the peg between gold and the U.S. dollar, gold’s price soared past levels previously thought to be unattainable. Thanks to high inflation rates, the oil crisis, and the weak U.S. dollar, gold rose more than 2,300% during the 1970s, recording a 147% increase in 1979 alone. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The green background highlights gold’s performance one year before the recession began in January 1980. The yellow background indicates recession periods, as reported by the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the first 19 days of January 1980, gold rose another 54%, hitting an all-time high of $873 per troy ounce. In the next 66 days, gold plummeted 48% to $473. From lows on 27th March 1980, gold gained over 65%, stopping at $748.50 on 22nd September 1980. After that, gold declined until 21st June 1982, erasing nearly 60% of its value before staging a temporary rally. Nevertheless, it was only two years after the recession, on 25th February 1985, that gold finally bottomed out at $282.60. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily graph of XAUUSD. The red background indicates gold’s performance one year before the recession began in July 1990. The yellow background shows the recession period. After bottoming out in 1985, gold rallied nearly 80% by mid-December 1987. But the next few years saw gold underperform and plunge 31%. The decline halted on 14th June 1990, at $348.20. Following that, gold’s price started to appreciate, rising 22% in the next two months, hitting a high of $425 on 21st August 1990. Yet, it was only a brief rally again, and gold soon reversed the trend. Gold lost more than 23% in the next three years, dropping to a low of $325.8 per troy ounce on 10th March 1993. Another three years were carried in a similar volatile manner, with gold rising nearly by one-third and then reversing and declining to merely $252.10 on 22nd August 1999. Illustration 1.03 The image above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The red background illustrates gold’s performance one year before the start of the recession in March 2001, and the yellow background indicates a recession period. After soaring 35% from 1999 lows in less than two months, gold shocked precious metal investors when it reversed and began a slow decline that lasted until the start of the 2001 recession; in fact, gold nearly took out 1999 lows in early 2001. During the recession, gold had a run-up of 12% and continued to soar to new heights after its end. By the next recession hit in late 2007, gold doubled in price. Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 displays the daily graph of XAUUSD. The green background shows gold’s performance one year before the start of the recession. The yellow background highlights the recession period. From its peak in March 2008, gold lost approximately 34% until its low of $681.50 on 24th October 2008. Yet, despite this massive decline, gold bottomed out before stocks and soared more than 180% until hitting a peak in September 2011. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
4
Silver: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: Silver Pattern – Breakout test. Support – 21.90, 22.84 Resistance – 23,45 23.19 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Silver on the daily chart. Looking at Silver, we see that price continues to pull back after breaking out of a triangle-based squeeze pattern. This is fine after a breakout but we want to see 22.84 hold as support for buyers. If it does, we will look for a move to retest resistance, set up a range break, and possibly confirm a new up trend. If sellers break 22.84 support, this could be a worry, and if other factors weigh in, like metals sector selling and or a firmer USD, this could lead to deeper tests to the downside. Do you think buyers can hold and set up a new push higher? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XAGUSDLong
by Eightcap
XAUUSD TODAY : How to win?Gold price is consolidating the solid recovery from the weekly low level of 2,015 USD at the beginning of the fourth day. The US dollar extends the regression from the highest level in many months, in the context of the interest rate of the US Treasury bonds and the market environment is friendly and risky, promoting gold buyers to accelerate. According to observation on the 1H chart, gold price is facing difficulties around the $ 2,030- $ 2,035 area. The relative power index (RSI) in 14 days is trading at a neutral level at 50, showing that the gold price lacks a clear orientation. If the recovery is successful, the strong resistance level immediately for gold price will be seen at a psychological level of 2,050 USD. The next important supply area for bright metal is seen at about 2,065 USD. On the other hand, gold sellers need to search for decisive closing levels under $ 2,035- $ 2.030 above. Further, will check the threshold of $ 2,000 if the $ 2,010 round number makes room.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Antonia_Le
Will SILVER Finally Break The Support Level?Hi Traders! There is a potential breakout on SILVER as it tries again to break the long-term support level.   Here are the details: Looking at the price action, it looks bearish; the market swings are lower with lower highs and lower lows. The market has broken and closed under the 20 EMA, and this is the third time around the 21.885 support level. The plan is to wait and see how the market reacts at 21.885. If the market holds above this level, then it will likely target the resistance trendline. However, if there is a break and close below 21.885, there is a good chance of targeting the long term support level at 20.696. Preferred Direction: Sell Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Resistance 1: 22.639 Support 1: 21.885 Support 2: 20.696 Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
TVC:SILVERShort
by BluetonaFX
1
Market selloff poses a threat to the gold's performanceFinally, our expectations for gold to slide below $2,000 were fulfilled yesterday when the shiny metal sold off following the release of higher-than-expected inflation data in the United States. Given the hell breaking lose (yesterday) in the stock market, we remain concerned about gold’s performance in the short and medium term (while being bullish in the long term). It is very likely that the selloff in stocks will negatively affect gold’s price (if it continues), dragging it to $1,950 and potentially even lower (depending on the new developments). In line with our previous assessments, we patiently wait for a better price to manifest itself before taking advantage of the opportunity (ideally waiting for the dip below $1,900). Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and adjusted fan lines. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the third fan line. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily graph of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. Illustration 1.03 On the daily time frame, the MACD crossed into the bearish territory, bolstering the odds of gold continuing lower. Technical analysis Daily timeframe = Bearish Weekly timeframe = Neutral (turning slightly bearish) Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
4
What does golden price change today? New week strategy! Today, gold price dropped sharply, losing nearly 20 USD in just one session and gold has surpassed many important support levels with the current price in the 2020 USD. Overall the momentum of gold price in the past week and in the past month, there has been weakness when on the gold chart began with the trend of sideway and the prospect for this week is still in favor Early interest rates and news still support the dollar quite a lot. I set goals at $ 1982. And you ?
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Antonia_Le
2
How we will play a gold's slump if it occurres Earlier this year, we reiterated our long-term bullish view on gold with a price target of $2,300 per troy ounce. We continue to hold this view; nevertheless, in the short-term and medium-term, it is increasingly likely that we will see a significant pullback in the price, with gold falling below $2,000. As we described previously, we do not intend to sell our holdings. Instead, we plan to use this opportunity to speculate on gold (aiming to get our hands on more of it), utilizing either a dual currency deposit or a different structured product (once the volatility picks up and gold falls significantly). Illustration 1.01 The gold’s MACD is approaching the midpoint. If it breaks below zero, it will bolster a bearish case in the short term. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the sloping support for gold. If it is broken to the downside, it will be slightly bearish. Technical analysis Daily = Neutral Weekly = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
2
Bullion Ballet: Trading the Gold Platinum RatioGold is the favoured precious metal. Its demand reflects consumer consumption of jewellery, investment demand, and monetary policy conditions. In a previous paper , Mint Finance highlighted these factors in detail. Platinum is also a precious metal, used to create jewellery and to a small extent as a form of investment. Crucially, unlike gold (6% industrial demand), platinum (73% industrial demand) is used more extensively for industrial applications. As gold and platinum share the source of jewellery demand, their performance is generally positively correlated. However, due to the distinct sources of demand as well as the extent to which each precious metal is used for each application, the correlation can break. These periods can offer tactical trading opportunities to benefit from the relative performance of CME Group’s precious metals suite. Particularly in a key ratio called the Gold to Platinum Ratio (“GPR”) which measures the price of gold relative to platinum. WHAT DRIVES THE GOLD-PLATINUM-RATIO The GPR is affected by monetary policy. Though the ratio does not show a distinct impact upon the first-rate cuts by Fed, rapid rate cuts in response to economic crises such as recessions can cause it to rally. The GPR increases during recessions due to investor preference for gold during times of crisis. Interestingly, the ratio has been rising since 2008 as gold price reaches new record highs, while platinum currently faces a cyclical downturn. RECESSION MAY BE UNLIKELY While the GPR faces the potential to increase during a potential recession, there are signs that a recession may be unlikely in the US. US spending remains resilient and has contributed to faster than expected GDP growth in 2023. While growth slowed heading into Q4 2023, it is still expected to expand at a strong 2% in the quarter. Moreover, the January BLS nonfarm payrolls report showed a massive 353k new jobs added. Wage growth was strong at 0.6% MoM, double the analyst estimate. Strong labour market and consumer spending in the US point to a healthier than expected economy. INDUSTRIAL SLOWDOWN WILL STILL HAMPER PLATINUM DEMAND In 2023, 33% of platinum’s demand came from industrial sources according to data from the World Platinum Investment Council . Platinum is used as a catalyst for several crucial industrial chemical processes. In addition, automotive demand represents a further 40% of total platinum demand. In the automotive industry, platinum is used in catalytic converters to reduce emissions. This has been a recent driver of platinum demand due to rising emissions standards and the so-called platinum-for-palladium substitution. In short, palladium is a Platinum Group Metal (PGM) which can be used interchangeably in automotive applications. The surge in palladium prices prompted many automakers to replace it with platinum. These changes will be in place for the lifetime of a car’s production so this trend will benefit platinum for an extended period. While platinum is a standout among the so-called Platinum Group Metals (PGM), the industry has been facing a downturn over the past 2 years with prices sharply lower. Ample above-ground inventories as well as low investment demand has hampered platinum performance. This downturn may not be permanent. Higher automotive demand and growth in hydrogen vehicles are expected to be long-term growth drivers for platinum. For 2024, the World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a smaller supply deficit than 2023. This is largely due to lower industrial and investment demand as well as improved supply. Anglo American, one of the largest producers of refined platinum stated that it expects PGM production to improve, which means ample supply. During 2023, production was hampered in South Africa. Going forward, PGM’s are meant to be a major driver for the mining giant, so efforts to improve production are under way and management also expects prices to recover. However, continued cost pressures may force miners to scale back production. Overall, the slowdown in chemical and petroleum demand as well as ample supply will limit Platinum’s performance in 2024, though price does face upside potential in the medium-to-long term. BENEFITS OF TRADING THE RATIO Platinum faces a mixed outlook in 2024, while there are several long-term demand growth drivers pushing price up, it faces uncertain but bearish production and demand outlooks for 2024. Similarly, gold is benefiting from heightened geo-political risk and strong central bank demand but faces resistance as prices reaches new record highs and a recession looks unlikely. Mint Finance covered some of these factors in detail in a previous post . While the outlook for both precious metals alone is uncertain, a trade on the back of the GPR favours gold. Not only has the ratio been on an uptrend for the past decade, it has outperformed both gold and platinum prices. Moreover, the ratio is not prone to overly large corrections. The largest drawdown in the ratio was smaller than the largest drawdown in gold and platinum prices. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP To express a position on GPR, investors can opt to use CME Group’s suite of precious metals future. Margin offset of 50% is available for a trade consisting of 1 gold (GC) contract and 2 platinum (PL) contracts. Executing a trade on the May futures contracts (GCK2024 and PLK2024), requires margin of: (Margin for Gold Leg + 2 x Margin for Platinum Leg) = (USD 8,300 + 2 x USD 2,800) = USD 13,900 – margin offset of 50% = USD 6,950. CME options on gold and platinum point to a bullish outlook for both but gold positioning is more bullish than platinum. As of 5/Feb, Gold options have a put/call ratio of 0.48 while platinum options have a put/call ratio of 0.75. Consider the following hypothetical trade setup: Entry: 2.275 Target: 2.530 Stop Loss: 2.100 Profit at Target: USD 23,013 Loss at Stop: USD 15,803 Reward to Risk: 1.46x This position benefits when: • Gold price rises faster than platinum. • Gold price falls slower than platinum. The position loses when: • Gold price rises slower than platinum. • Gold price falls faster than platinum. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by mintdotfinance
15
BTCUSDT: Getting hotThe price of Bitcoin is currently on an upward trend since last Thursday. BTC reached its highest point in two weeks at $43,990 before undergoing a correction. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $43,374. Looking ahead, BTC faces a resistance level in the range of $43,870 to $45,562, which could lead to a further price drop. In the event of a decrease, the price of Bitcoin may sharply decline to a psychological support level at $40,000. If this level is broken, the next support zone will be between $38,535 and $38,574.
by TradingForecast_Signals
Gold price today (January 29)Hello dear friends! Today, gold continues its downward trend. It can be seen that the recent actions of the Fed have been less accommodating, indicating that interest rates may continue to rise and the USD will become even stronger. This will be unfavorable for the gold market. Therefore, it is not surprising that we are quite optimistic that gold will not have any new breakthroughs from this downward trend, and the 2020 USD support level needs to be observed more closely. The EMA signal, along with the downward trend, further reinforces the decline of gold. The price target reaching the 1980 USD area continues to be emphasized.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradingForecast_Signals
BTCUSDT: Falling from the price level of 40,000 USDDear valued readers, as I mentioned yesterday, BTCUSDT has broken out of its upward channel, leading to a significant decline in the price. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency market is trading around the $40,000 mark. The downward trend is strong as the price has surpassed several important support levels, namely $41,000 and $42,000. Meanwhile, after the approval of 11 Bitcoin ETF funds, BTCUSD continues to decline on Thursday. It is expected that the price will reach $35,359. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do you agree with me?
Short
by TradingForecast_Signals
Gold slows down in downtrendHello everyone, let's explore the price of gold! Regarding the developments and outcomes of the news on January 22nd: The price of gold has experienced significant fluctuations, mainly fluctuating in a downward trend, and the EMA continues to be the dominant support for gold. Currently, the price is consolidating. This is due to the strengthening of the US dollar as the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in March. As a result, investing in gold becomes more expensive due to higher interest rates. Conclusion on gold and trends: Gold attracted some buying activity on Tuesday and recovered most of its modest overnight losses. Political tensions in the Middle East, along with concerns about China's weak economic recovery, have supported some safe-haven precious metals. However, in the long run, the price is still negatively impacted by the previous downward trend, evidenced by the price remaining below the strong resistance level of $2050. My target is for the price to pull back to the resistance levels around $2040 and $2050 before being influenced by the market's strong downward trend, with an expected decline to $2000. Any breakthrough below this level of $1980 will be the last line of defense for the bullish camp.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradingForecast_Signals
How will gold prices change this week?Hello everyone, it's Karina here, delighted to share with you today's updates on gold prices. At the start of today's trading session, gold experienced a slight increase, currently hovering around 2030 USD. The 1-hour chart shows an upward trend for gold, with support formed near 2025 USD. Looking into this week's outlook, all eyes are on the USD fluctuations amidst major central banks' monetary policy decisions. The European Central Bank (ECB), in particular, will be under scrutiny. Their recent hawkish stance at the World Economic Forum in Davos could significantly influence the USD and potentially support gold prices. What do you think, how will gold move this week?
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Karina_Bella
1