RSKD - breakout confirmed, now waiting for retestRiskified (RSKD) shows a textbook breakout setup: daily triangle plus 4H bullish flag. Price already broke out and is now retesting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $5.21, which also matches the flag resistance flip and EMA cluster. This is a clean buy zone with strong technical alignment.
Volume spiked during the breakout, trend structure remains intact, and moving averages are converging — usually a precursor to strong moves. The current pullback is orderly, and if buyers show strength on this retest, the price could target $6.00, then $6.54, and potentially $7.25 (1.618 extension).
Fundamentally, Riskified offers fraud prevention tech for e-commerce. The business is benefiting from global growth in online transactions and improved margin control. While still unprofitable, recent quarters showed progress toward positive operating leverage and strong client acquisition.
Tactical plan:
— Entry on confirmation from $5.21 retest
— TP1: $6.00
— TP2: $6.54
— TP3: $7.25
— SL: below $4.90 or $4.43 support zone
You’ve been watching this one. The triangle broke. The pullback is clean. Maybe it’s time to stop watching and start participating.
Prediction
USDCAD: Long Signal with Entry/SL/TP
USDCAD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy USDCAD
Entry Level - 1.3605
Sl - 1.3575
Tp - 1.3668
Our Risk - 1%
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GOLD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
GOLD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry - 3335.9
Stop - 3338.8
Take - 3330.1
Our Risk - 1%
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GBPAUD: Growth & Bullish Continuation
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current GBPAUD chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the upward direction.
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Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Morning -- ☀️☀️☀️
What an amazing last full week of June that was as we pulled out of corrective territory and onto new ATHs with the SP:SPX body of its weekly candle moving +3.41% -- bottom to top. The weekly move open-to-close was +$98.40 as that is how I gauge my volatility metrics. This in comparison is closest in value to IV entering the week as it was stating an implied move of +/-$102.08, which was a volatility read of 16.34% -- As you see in reflection of the weekly chart below and within daily candle structure, price action moved upwards all week surpassing quarterly marks. This in turn is raising short-term volatility and lowering monthly averages as we rotate higher.
Here is the weekly price action of the TVC:VIX from a 5m perspective. This is showing the EOW trend break upwards drilling the indices back down -- A healthy pullback after being seemingly over-extended. This happened during the news cycle release of the U.S. and Canada reciprocal tariff disagreement. Hopefully this settles over the weekend and we rotate higher into the 4th of July week.
Now looking towards this holiday week -- We have the SP:SPX IV (13.29%) after melting during the ATHs move previously -3.09% -- This places IV on the sliding yearly spectrum at the 39% down range showing increasing discount in yearly value. Remember, If you form option positions IV affects VEGA 1% at a time and the algos bid down IV in contracting markets as they rotate higher. HV10 (12.46%) has hinged down and still is contractive per IV prediction but, increasing in comparison with a ' strength of IV ' now showing 94% entering this week.
As the TVC:VIX has closed at $16.32 -- I believe that there is still a little room to extend potentially upwards to the HV10 weekly range of $6253.59. Currently, the SP:SPX YTD return is +4.96% with weekly momentum pointing up and room for volatility to still decrease. If this mark is reached it would put the YTD return at +6.52%. Very feasible and realistic being halfway through the year and going into the 4th of July 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 Watch as we climb the wall of worries around us. This would in turn decrease short-term volatility more maybe even to a bottoming point and IV would melt during the rotation upwards with the VIX slowly grinding down.
Come back next week as we review what happened within the implied ranges posted and overlook the volatility potentially bottoming and looking towards a VIX spike in the near future.
Remember to know your ABCs and stay hedged against your bias! CHEERS!
Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Evening -- Happy July 4th to everyone
Let us review last week as we look towards the next in anticipation of the trade deal deadline that looms. I had a target on the SP:SPX of $6,253.59 and the weekly high was $6,284.65. The candle on the short week opened at its low of $6,019.21 and closed $6,233.08 making the weekly range +$213.87. This represents closest to HV63 over IV which stated +/-$253.26 and a 'strength of IV' that was 295% . Again the weekly high is above our range target, but my volatility will always be measured close-to-close.
Now as we look towards this week --
IV (13.85%) has shifted upwards slightly with HV10 (7.36%) hinged down and still lowering. In fact, I have bi-weekly volatility as 97.28% 'coiled' to it's sliding yearly low of 4.64% -- HV21 (9.92%) is closer to what IV states with it being 'coiled' 96.61% to it's respective sliding yearly lows.
In my opinion, volatility still has room to consolidate slightly as markets rotate higher. I think we can see upwards $6,327.73, but slowly over the course of the week with the last tariff uncertainty getting out of the way. From there, going into mid July we may need to see a volatility spike. The HV10 range I am watching holds a 'strength of IV' entering this week of only 53% -- this shows the price per move is expensive by almost twice as much.
Till next time, know your ABCs, have a great long weekend, and stay hedge!
CHEERS
NZDCAD: Market of Buyers
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to buy NZDCAD.
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AUDUSD: Bullish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
The recent price action on the AUDUSD pair was keeping me on the fence, however, my bias is slowly but surely changing into the bullish one and I think we will see the price go up.
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AUDNZD: Short Trading Opportunity
AUDNZD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short AUDNZD
Entry Point - 1.0834
Stop Loss - 1.0850
Take Profit - 1.0802
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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AUDJPY: Short Trade Explained
AUDJPY
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell AUDJPY
Entry Level - 95.193
Sl - 95.477
Tp - 94.658
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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GOLD 4H: structure broken - phase reversal beginsTwo key directional signals were recorded on the gold chart: first, a breakdown of the ascending channel, followed by a confident downward exit from the triangle with a clear fixation under the $3297 boundary. Both figures worked independently, but consistently - and strengthened the impulse towards selling.
The price has already gone beyond the lower boundary of the triangle ($3297), confirming the bearish scenario. Candlesticks closing under the level and local consolidation from below is a characteristic formation before the momentum continues.
Technical parameters:
- Channel breakout: completed
- Triangle breakout: $3297 level
- Retest from below: expected as confirmation
- EMAs reversed downwards, structure broken
- Volumes strengthened at the moment of breakout
Tactical plan:
- Sell after retest of $3297
- Targets on the move: $3248 and $3201
- Stop: above $3305 (above the area of false outs).
The current structure indicates the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the downward momentum. As long as the price holds below $3297 - shorts are the priority.
AUDCAD: Bearish Continuation & Short Trade
AUDCAD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short AUDCAD
Entry - 0.8947
Sl - 0.8974
Tp - 0.8903
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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EURGBP: Weak Market & Bearish Forecast
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell EURGBP.
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AUDUSD: Will Start Growing! Here is Why:
Looking at the chart of AUDUSD right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move up seems to be quite likely.
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GOLD: Short Signal with Entry/SL/TP
GOLD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry - 3349.3
Stop - 3353.5
Take - 3339.9
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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CADJPY: Bullish Continuation & Long Signal
CADJPY
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long CADJPY
Entry - 105.09
Sl - 104.65
Tp - 105.93
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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EURUSD: Short Signal Explained
EURUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short EURUSD
Entry Point - 1.1775
Stop Loss - 1.1822
Take Profit - 1.1670
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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EURCHF: Bullish Continuation
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the EURCHF pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
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EURCAD: Expecting Bearish Continuation! Here is Why:
The recent price action on the EURCAD pair was keeping me on the fence, however, my bias is slowly but surely changing into the bearish one and I think we will see the price go down.
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AUDCAD: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
AUDCAD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell AUDCAD
Entry Level - 0.8940
Sl - 0.8963
Tp - 0.8889
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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EURGBP: Will Start Falling! Here is Why:
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current EURGBP chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
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GBPAUD: Growth & Bullish Continuation
Balance of buyers and sellers on the GBPAUD pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the buyers, therefore is it only natural that we go long on the pair.
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GOLD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
GOLD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short GOLD
Entry - 3280.9
Sl - 3287.7
Tp - 3267.4
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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