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LTRN Lower Float, Light Vol, Big News Now What?LTRN is a stranger to high volume. For the last 2 quarters, it hasn't traded more than 355k shares on a GOOD day. Many days even see less than 100k shares trade. The current OS on it is 11 M suggesting the float is, at the very most, 11 million as of the last reported OS. This morning the company announced FDA news and was granted Orphan Drug Designation for its LP-184 pancreatic cancer treatment. "This orphan designation is one of many upcoming milestones that we expect to achieve for our LP-184 program in pancreatic cancer. We recently reported that LP-184 demonstrated significant and rapid pancreatic tumor shrinkage, by over 90%, within in-vivo mouse models over 8 weeks.  In comparison, the tumors in the untreated mice grew by over eleven-fold in volume during the same 8-week period. We are excited to advance this groundbreaking research to help patients suffering from this devastating disease where the benefits of current treatment options are very limited." - Panna Sharma, President & CEO of Lantern Pharma. Taking a look at the chart and fib retracement using recent lows and the anchor, you can see how the 786 fib line has remained a consistent pivot on the chart. It was a previous support that LTRN bounced off of. Now, over more recent weeks it has become more of a resistance with the stock now treading water during premarket trading on Aug 11. Though LTRN has broken above the 50DMA for the first time in quite a while, it was rejected during premarket trading when it tested the 200DMA level around $16. Considering all of these major areas of focus, it will be interesting to see if enough momentum is in play for any meaningful move to persist or if LTRN will fall back once again. If there's one thing that has been in the spotlight this summer it has been cancer treatment stocks. Sanofi (SNY) Acquired Translate Bio (TBIO) Bristol Myers' (BMY) Opdivo Showed Significant Growth Merck's drug gained FDA approval CYTK broke out big sparking a biotech rally Fate Therapeutics Progressed with its trial You also had a bunch of momentum building off the back of biotech breakouts, in general this week. "a few former penny stocks on Robinhood raised eyebrows in the analyst community. In fact, these analysts have given targets between 23% and 368% higher than where these stocks currently trade." Quote Source & Read more: Hot Stocks To Watch On Robinhood With Analyst Targets Up To 368%
NASDAQ:LTRN
by PennyStocks101
UPST At Major Intersection, Now What?UPST has been chugging along since IPO. It hasn't been smooth sailing but every major drop has been greeted with the next drop putting in higher lows. Doing a little Fib retracement revealed some core levels as well as helped outline the latest high-traffic area. It finally broke back above the 382 fib level at the start of the week and held it as lower support for the first time since May. Before this UPST was rejected for the last week at the 382. Obviously the news catalyst helped a lot in post market trading on Aug 10th..so now what? This gap up has firmly set UPST above the 236 fib level, it has only traded in this area a few times previous but hasn't managed to hold it as support for a meaningful amount of time. BUT since it's here, the hopeful are looking "up" ... maybe in the sense of optimism but I'm talking about more in the sense of levels and wouldn't you know it, right around $166 has been a hairy level for the stock. It hasn't failed at this level once or twice but 6 out of the last 7 times tested (yes I missed a circle the day it spiked to ATH). With the positive news and clear retail interest, this could be an important level to watch (along with maintaining the 236 fib area as a new support) heading into the rest of the month (for now). One of the best performing industries over the past few months has been in tech stocks. The landscape has drastically changed thanks to the pandemic. Many companies have shifted their tech strategy to move more things online and to a virtual platform...Everything from entertainment to sports has seen this become a factor. In this article, we’ll take a closer look at a few tech stocks to watch in August that fit this mold... Continue Reading
NASDAQ:UPST
by PennyStocks101
1
Post IPO Hangover Rebound For FUBO?I did a quick and dirty Fib retracement on FUBO using this year's low and didn't include the whole post IPO exuberance and ensuing hangover. Now even with this as the case, there are several important levels in the short term to watch. 382 Fib is likely one of them as it appears to be presenting a major pivot over the last few months as both support and resistance. With the market trying to recover, this is the first time in weeks that FUBO has established itself above this level and approaching the 286 level. With tech and streaming/esports/igaming picking up steam, it could be an interesting second half of the year. ' There are plenty of other outliers to keep track of right now especially considering the overall trend in tech. Despite being slightly down this week, overall, technology stocks have performed well this year. In fact, tech (based on the XLK ETF) is up over 17% since the beginning of 2021. Based on the growth outlook, some expect the sector to continue flourishing in light of a lower rate environment in the near term. Should that end up as the case, there could be plenty of tech penny stocks to watch heading into the second half of the year. " Quote Source & Read More: Top Tech Penny Stocks To Watch For August 2021
NYSE:FUBO
by PennyStocks101
MDIA Finally?MDIA has been on fire this month. Low float penny stocks are booming and this is yet another name to add to the list. Looking at a quick fib retracement reveals some interesting levels. Mainly, look at the 618 fib level. It has been tested 4 times before today and it failed to break above and hold new support every time. Now, Aug 10 MDIA is showing signs of this again and so far has held firmly above 618. Something else to consider is the 50 fib, which has been tested 2 times counting Aug 10th. There hasn't been any new news but speculation continues fueling momentum. For longs, this 618 area could be key. Meanwhile, Finviz shows a float of less than 2 mil shares so keep that in mind especially if you don't know how to trade volatile stocks yet. " It’s worth noting that Rahsan-Rahsan is a seasoned veteran in the entertainment industry. The current Board Director, Laura Lee, states that he is a 'talented and dedicated leader with the right strategic vision, relentless drive, and passion for media required to lead the Mediaco team at this critical time.' For some context, Mediaco Holding is a multimedia company working mostly in the radio and out-of-home advertising businesses. It states that has 3,500 faces throughout the Southeastern U.S., where it generates the majority of its advertising revenue. Additionally, it claims to own and operate two of the most popular urban radio stations in New York City, which is quite a large deal. So, while radio may not be as popular as it once was, there are still millions of listeners daily. Whether this makes MDIA a penny stock to watch, however, is up to you. " Quote Source & Read More: Hot Penny Stocks For Your Weekly Watchlist in June
NASDAQ:MDIA
by PennyStocks101
FULC SendFULC news catalyst popped the stock into the previous gap and right back to testing this clear resistance level that was previous support. After plotting the fib retracement is looks like the 50 Fib line is an area that might need to set up as the higher support level if there's any hope of FULC sustaining higher levels. We'll have to see what happens next. "The company focuses on developing treatments for rare genetic diseases. including sickle cell disease. This week, the company announced key data that has helped drive momentum in the market and push shares of FULC stock higher. Fulcrum announced positive interim results from its ongoing single- and multiple ascending dose (SAD and MAD) Phase 1 trial with FTX-6058. This treatment targets patients with fetal hemoglobin (HbF) with the potential to treat hemoglobinopathies." Quote Source & Read More: Hot Stocks To Watch On Robinhood With Analyst Targets Up To 368%
NASDAQ:FULC
by PennyStocks101
SRNE News....Key AreaThis could be an important area for SRNE right now. You've got Fibs and major moving averages all converging at the same point. News today: "Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: SRNE, "Sorrento"), a clinical and commercial stage biopharmaceutical company developing new therapies to treat cancer, pain and COVID-19, announced today the availability of a presentation on its corporate website to provide an overview of Sorrento’s proprietary mRNA vaccine development program for COVID-19." The presentation can be viewed at: investors.sorrentotherapeutics.com Funny to think this was just a penny stock not that long ago: Sorrento Therapeutics Inc. (SRNE Stock Report) is actually still one of the popular stocks on Robinhood this month. Compared to where it was trading in March, 2020, SRNE stock is trading at levels night and day different this month. In fact, SRNE stock hasn’t been considered a penny stock since the end of June. The range has gone from lows of $1.55 to highs of $19.39 so far. Quote Source & Read More: Are Penny Stocks Worth It? 5 That Hit It Out Of The Park In 2020
S
by PennyStocks101
VXRT Vol + Fibs = ?VXRT testing another familiar area of "traffic" from the last few months. This 786 fib area has remained a key level on the chart. More times than not, VXRT has failed to break and hold above it for any meaningful amount of time. But thanks to new covid cases and its recent business update, things are popping on Aug 9th. Though the volume isn't anything crazy above average, the last few days of consistently higher levels are something to watch closely as well. " Another one of the former penny stocks to watch on this list is Vaxart Inc. While short interest isn’t the only focus right now, for VXRT, it has played a role. Based on the most recent data, the short float percentage is right around 20%. What’s more, the company’s recent business update helped shed a brighter light on a few things that were up in the air during more recent weeks...One of the topics discussed was the potential of Vaxart’s R&D and clinical development initiatives. CEO Andrei Floroiu said, “We strengthened our balance sheet, made major research advances, deepened our scientific knowledge, grew the company, and took the company closer to our goal of developing disruptive oral tablet vaccines that can have a material impact on the world’s public health.” ...Vaxart’s platform has shown progress in recent clinical trials. Its norovirus vaccine, built on the company’s VAAST platform, demonstrated the ability to boost immune responses in those who’ve been previously vaccinated with a Vaxart oral vaccine. In some cases, this vaccination period was more than a year earlier. The company also has a current trial study going on. This is of its S-Wuhan construct, which it expects to begin shortly. Obviously, with growing virus cases and the eventual rise of “cold and flu season,” this early progress has begun to gain attention in the market. " Quote Source & Read More: 4 Penny Stocks On Robinhood To Watch This Week
NASDAQ:VXRT
by PennyStocks101
BTC What Comes First?...Plotting some basic levels on BTC and using Fib Retracement to do it. Using lows from late November as the anchor, some interesting levels are apparent. First, the 50 fib has been a relatively clear pivot level on the chart where it was resistance at the end of 2020 as well as recently. Then you've got the 382 level to keep in mind. Now that BTC has broken above 50, the 382 would be the logical "next level" right? Well, hold your horses for a second because you've still got the 200DMA to watch....Look at the chart and you'll see that this has been resistance for the last few months and BTC tested it again this weekend. It was denied once again. So before anyone starts looking at the 382 level (which was an area of support during the big crypto breakout months), the 200dma could be the real level to watch for longs. We'll see what happens when the week gets started. " The most prominent crypto penny stocks are the ones that mine cryptocurrency. These are few and far between, however, there are a select group of penny stocks to watch that engage in crypto mining. Next, we have the penny stocks that work with blockchain technology or are producing it. These could be tech penny stocks, software companies, or a combination of both. Additionally, these companies could also be producing technology used in cryptocurrency mining. This includes machines used for mining Bitcoin, DogeCoin, Ethereum, and any others. Lastly, we have the ancillary crypto penny stocks. This could be companies that have crypto holdings, ones that offer NFTs, or companies that are working to utilize blockchain technology in their practice. The level of involvement that a penny stock has in the cryptocurrency industry, should illustrate how large its correlation is to the frequent moves of crypto. So the more involved a company is, the more likely it is to swing from crypto price swings. And, the less involved, the less likely it is to do so. In 2021, there is a whole list of penny stocks that work with cryptocurrency or blockchain-related tech. And knowing how and where to find them will be your greatest asset. Considering this, are these the best cryptocurrency penny stocks to buy now? " Quote Source & Read More: Best Penny Stocks to Buy Now? 3 Cryptocurrency Companies To Watch
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by PennyStocks101
ETH Fibbin This Week?ETH has, by most accounts, crushed it over the last few weeks. Look at all those green days and this weekend seems to have continued this bullish trend. So after plotting a fib retracement using December lows as an anchor, it seems timely to look if there are any "important" levels to consider...and I think you'll see that there may be. Right now it looks like the 382 fib line is that level. It was a brief area of support during the monster rally earlier this year. BUT it has become a really sticky level of resistance overall. Look at the chart and you'll see that almost to the exact price, ETH was denied at the 382 fib line. This weekend it managed to break above the level and, so far, has held above it. What will be interesting is to see if 382 will get tested as a possible new support level. Ideally, longs may want to see some consolidation and accumulation around this level to potentially justify the firming up of a new, higher support level following the latest multi-week uptrend. " Blockchain penny stocks have remained some of the most popular stocks to watch over the past year and a half. With the rise in the value of cryptocurrencies like DogeCoin, Bitcoin, and Ethereum during that time, many investors are looking for penny stocks that could benefit. Within the blockchain industry, there are a few specific niches that we can use to categorize the stocks on our watchlist...Considering this, let’s take a look at three blockchain penny stocks that are heating up right now. " The surge in crypto could have crypto and blockchain stocks on the watch list at least during pre-market hours on Monday. Quote Source & Read More: Blockchain Penny Stocks Are Heating Up, 3 Names to Know
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by PennyStocks101
BITF Trafic Hour...AgainBITF has gained some ground thanks to the interest and attention on crypto prices this year. After doing a fib retracement using last December's low as an anchor, some interesting areas have been revealed. First, the 50 Fib is a clear area of high traffic. While BITF has managed to trade at these levels, it hasn't had the best time holding above it for extended periods. Furthermore, the next level which is the 382 fib line appears to be an interesting level of resistance as BITF has broken to and above it just 3 times previous and had been denied all 3 times. Considering this "crypto weekend" bitcoin stocks could be first on the watch list on Monday. HOWEVER... follow-through on the cryptos themselves will be an important factor when it comes to the overall follow-through on the related stocks. Watch for any signs of premarket breakouts...sure...BUT once the market opens, THAT'S likely going to be the determining factor as to the general direction of stocks like BITF for the day/week in my opinion. " Bitfarms announced its production update and that it will be reporting its Q2 2021 financial results on August 16th. In the production results, the company stated that in July it mined 391 new Bitcoin, which set a record for the year. At this rate, it is mining around 12-13 BTC per day. In addition, it deposited almost $70 million in Bitcoin through August 1st. 'We are proud to have added 96% of our 2021 year-to-date Bitcoin mined to our long-term inventory program. As we work to execute on our growth targets, we anticipate adding more Bitcoins to our balance sheet at a faster rate than we have in the first half of 2021.' CEO and Founder of Bitfarms, Emiliano Grodzki. One of the aspects that separates Bitfarms from others is its commitment to renewable energy. Because energy consumption is one of the largest issues with Bitcoin mining, the company states that it uses 99% green hydroelectricity. This is big news and something that other companies are working on as well. So if you’re looking for an interesting pure-play crypto penny stock, BITF stock could be worth keeping an eye on. " Quote Source & Read More: Blockchain Penny Stocks Are Heating Up, 3 Names to Know
NASDAQ:BITF
by PennyStocks101
HUSN Merger Partner Lends A HandThe ink isn't dry yet but proposed merger partner Fr8Hub is lending a helping hand thanks to reporting strong growth for 3 and 6-month operating results. Second-quarter of 2021 revenues were approximately $5.9 million, up 394% compared to approximately $1.2 million in the prior-year period. Revenues for the six-month period ended June 30, 2021, were approximately $10.7 million, up 294% compared to approximately $2.7 million for the prior-year period. Levels: Plotting the retracement using September's low, some interesting levels started to present themself. The 618 level has continued as support for weeks/months now then higher levels you can see that the 382 area is a key level too. it's been a constant point of resistance that HUSN has been denied at many times. Now that it's broken above this during premarket on 8/5, the logical next level would be the 236 right? In my opinion, it could be important to see where the next level of support sets up...will it test and bounce back from the 382 level or is this a clear shot to the 236? " Cloud technology, IoT, AI, and AR have all become hot topics among investors. Emphasizing the potential of this pending merger, this month, Hudson announced that FreightHub reported preliminary Q1 revenue of $4.8M. This was a year-over-year increase of 216% and a quarterly record for the company. 'We have started 2021 off strong, with enhancements to our technology platform and increased sales force driving the record sales for 1Q21 and the launch of our Fr8Hub University,' FreightHub CEO Javier Selgas commented. Furthermore, with digital technology as a backbone to the Fr8Hub platform, the HUSN stock price saw a strong spark... " Now we wait to see if this merger finalizes or not. Quote Source & Read More: Hot Penny Stocks To Buy Next Week? 3 Tech Stocks For Your Watch List
H
by PennyStocks101
BTBT In Familiar Territory But It's Up To Bitcoin NextBTBT hasn't had the best first half of the year and for most of the second and 3rd quarters, the stock was slowly bleeding. But thanks to that 100MW collab announced a few weeks ago, AND thanks to bitcoin getting its act together, things changed. Now BTBT is back at an interesting level I found after plotting the retracement for Q2 and Q3 so far. The 382 fib line was a previous area of higher traffic. It was resistance, then support, and now resistance if you look at the last few candles (for now). Considering the action in crypto, however, this could be an important level to pay attention to while also monitoring the daily trading volume. "A rebound in cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, has related companies in the spotlight this week. Bit Digital is among the names of former penny stocks to watch. The company was one we first discussed late in July. At the time, Bit Digital’s news of a planned Bitcoin mining expansion with Digihost acted as the initial catalyst. The two will operate a 100 MW Bitcoin mining system for an initial 2-year term...Since then, a mix of speculation and crypto market momentum has helped carry BTBT stock much higher. In fact, since our July 26th update, shares have climbed from under $5 to over $12 this week. Traders also seem to be recirculating that last update, fixated on comments from CEO Bryan Bullett: As previously announced, we anticipate significant purchase activity in the coming months, due to spot market dislocation in China and our unique access to that market. This agreement with Digihost secures a key component of activating this opportunity, and is expected to enable rapid deployment of newly purchased miners. One of the things to keep in mind is that no matter how strong the momentum for Bitcoin stocks, the underlying trend in the cryptocurrency’s price tends to direct the market. We’ve seen big breakouts and quick breakdowns thanks to crypto volatility. So make sure to have that in the back of your head if BTBT stock is on your list right now." Quote Source & Read More: 4 Top Reddit Stocks To Watch As Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Breaks $80
NASDAQ:BTBT
by PennyStocks101
MVIS Levels after Q2 EarningsMVIS has been stagnant for a few weeks leading up to these latest Q2 results. The 786 fib line using Q2 lows as the anchor reveal some important levels and this 786 was one of them. It was a prior pivot point that more times than not ended up being support and/or a level of consolidation. It was only until recently that MVIS ended up failing to hold its consolidation trend and slid back. Now that ER are out, not only may 786 area be important but so might the 50 DMA which is right around $14.50 as of today. After hours on 8/4 MVIS briefly traded above that level but almost immediately got rejected. And to think that we were covering this as frequently as we were when it was still a penny stock. It has come a long way. " There are a few reasons for the massive spike in MVIS stock over that time frame. One of those is its work on LiDAR sensors as well as microchips and various computer-related products. Right now, there is a major shortage of microprocessors. If we consider basic supply and demand principles, we see that a massive gain for MVIS stock makes sense. However, its LiDAR sensors are also used in self-driving cars, which have become a major focus for Reddit stock investors in the past year or so. The focus from Reddit investors on MVIS is another example of retail traders pushing a stock with a high institutional short interest ..." Quote Source & Read More: Former Penny Stocks That Exploded in Value, One Up Over 3,500%
NASDAQ:MVIS
by PennyStocks101
4
Writing The SCPS?SCPS seeing another spike in trading volume late in the week (week of 8/1). After plotting out the fib retracement using "normal levels" and not ones from the crazy parabolic spike previously, you can see this 618 area has been a key support/resistance level. With the latest spark taking SCPS stock higher afterhours on 8/4, it so far managed to break back above the 618 area for the first time in weeks. No news, no filings, just social momo. But thanks to it being part of that "low float" crowd, it could be in the mix of possible "short squeeze stocks" that've grown in popularity. Looking at the deets...back in May there were a few fundamental developments to track: " the company announced that it received FDA approval for an Investigational New Drug Application for its lead drug candidate, CpG-STAT3siRNA. Now, a Phase 1 trial for B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma will begin at the City of Hope. This is a well-known research and treatment center for cancer, diabetes, and other diseases. More To Watch With SCPS Stock As a newer company, Scopus has only been public since December of 2020. The company initially raised just under $3 million from its IPO debut. While this wasn’t technically a penny stock initially, shares hovered around $5 earlier this month. That was, until the news on May 24th. Since the announcement, SCPS stock has surged past the $17 mark. Furthermore, even though it’s a newer company, analysts have also begun following the company closely. Benchmark Research started Scopus with a Speculative Buy rating as well as a price target of $20. Analyst Aydin Huseynov believes that the company’s STAT3 inhibitor gene therapy, CO-sTiRNA, has “a reasonable chance to show clinically relevant results” in recurrent and hard-to-treat aggressive Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma indications. Huseynov gave this outlook several months before today’s news and expected the IND submission during the second half of the year. " Quote Source & Read More: 3 Biotech Penny Stocks To Watch That Analysts Are Bullish On Today
S
by PennyStocks101
SOFI So Good?After plotting the Fib retracement using January's low as the anchor, some really interesting levels started to present themselves...mainly the 786 fib line. Each time it has broken down and tested it, SOFI bounced shortly after. Now that volume is beginning to gain ground, this could get interesting. On top of that you can see that the 618 fib line has also been a technical resistance level this year with SOFI getting rejected more times than it has managed to break and hold above it. Aside from the Social Sentiment being a factor, fintech as a whole has gotten play this year. That's not only for COVID helping advance "social distancing" stocks but also the fact that people just don't want to be bothered by going to a bank if they can do things virtually. "In the second quarter of this year, the U.S. GDP shot up by around 6.5%, indicating that expansion is well underway following the onset of the pandemic. Right now we have to consider the effects of the Delta variant on a reopening economy. In line with this, investors should understand what this means for stocks across the board. With the tech industry, investors remain bullish on the potential impact of the pandemic. As we saw early on in the course of Covid, many tech stocks were able to benefit greatly. The increased need for new tech products and better work-from-home/educate-from-home offerings created a highly bullish environment for the tech industry." Quote Source & Read More: 3 Tech Penny Stocks To Watch In August 2021
NASDAQ:SOFI
by PennyStocks101
Silver not likely to go lower than it is right nowSilver ended last week not looking so good, and it has lead to a bad start for this week too. After breaking below $25 resistance, it has held above the next level of 24.75. It is likely to retest this zone again this week, so depending when you're reading this the title of this article may not be exactly true - but I'm really looking at where silver is likely to close at the end of the week. It's looking a bit oversold. I like to look at the silver/usd chart, but when I want to take a deeper look at how silver is doing on a global scale, then I look at the silver/DXY. Makes sense, right? If you know what the dxy is. Anyway, that's the chart I have posted here. As you can see, silver has hit the bottom of an ascending wedge. These ascending wedges have been bullish for silver for the past decade at least. The price action could dip below this line throughout the week, but as long as it closes on Friday at or above this line, then it is considered to still be holding. That's great news for silver apes. The only unfortunate part about this is that by this chart... it looks like we'll have to wait a while before silver breaks above $30. Like sometime in 2022. Actually that's not that bad. Probably will be here before we know it. For people stacking for decades, that's nothin
TVC:SILVERLong
by greenvention
Predicting the Time-window for Turns, in all MarketsInexplicably, upon publishing this post, the Title Chart becomes distorted beyond recognition thus, all references are to this Original Chart - below Do markets trend on the medium term (months) and mean-revert on the long run (years)? Does Black's intuition bear out that prices tend to be off approximately by a factor of 2? (Taking years to equilibrate.) How does Technical Analysis , as a whole, act as a trend following system while Fundamental Analysis matters only once prices get way out of line? Is mean-reversion a sufficient self-correcting mechanism to temper irrational exuberance in financial markets? We examine these questions in the proceeding; In his 1986 piece Fisher Black wrote: "An efficient market is one in which price is within a factor 2 of value, i.e. the price is more than half of value and less than twice value. He went on saying: The factor of 2 is arbitrary, of course. Intuitively, though, it seems reasonable to me, in the light of sources of uncertainty about value and the strength of the forces tending to cause price to return to value. By this definition, I think almost all markets are efficient almost all of the time." The myth that “informed traders" step in and arbitrage away any small discrepancies between value and prices never made much sense. If for no other reason but the wisdom of crowds is too easily distracted by trends and panic. Humans are pretty much clueless about the “fundamental value" of anything traded in markets, save perhaps a few instruments in terms of some relative value. Prices regularly evolve pretty much unbridled in response to uninformed supply and demand flows, until the difference with value becomes so strong that some mean-reversion forces prices back to more reasonable levels. Black imagined, Efficient Market Theory would only make sense on time scales longer than the mean-reversion time (TMR), the order of magnitude of which is set by S√TMR∼d. For stock indices wit hS∼20%/year, makes TMR = ∼6 years. The dynamics of prices within Black’s uncertainty band is in fact not random but exhibits trends: in the absence of strong fundamental anchoring forces, investors tend to under-react to news or take cues from past price changes themselves. In fact, the notorious and unbridled reliance and un-anchored, speculative extrapolation is the mainstay of most investors, as well as Wall Street's itself, as it is the regular course of everyday "investing" across most asset classes. In the following a picture emerges (and we test it), whether market returns are positively correlated on time scales TMR and negatively correlated on long time scales ∼TMR, before eventually following the (very) long term fate of fundamental value - in what looks like a biased geometric random walk with a non-stationary drift. We have looked at a very large set of financial instruments, drawing on data sets from 1800 - 2020 (i.e. 220 years). We applied the same method to all available data in Stocks, Bonds, FX, Commodity Futures and Spot Prices, the shortest data set going back 1955. As it turns out that, in particular, mean-reversion forces start cancelling trend following forces after a period of around 2 years, and mean-reversion seems to peak for channel widths on the order of 50-100%, which corresponds to Black’s “factor 2”. Mean-reversion appears as a mitigating force against trend following that allows markets to become efficient on the very long run, as anticipated previously by many authors. Regarding the data we used for this study; Commodity Data sets - Starting date Natural Gas 1986 Corn 1858 Wheat 1841 Sugar 1784 Live Cattle 1858 Copper 1800 Equity Price data sets - Starting date USA 1791 Australia 1875 Canada 1914 Germany 1870 Switzerlan 1914 Japan 1914 United Kingdom 1693 From trends to mean-reversion The relation between past de-trended returns on scale t'< and future de-trended returns on scale t'>. Defining p(t) as the price level of any asset (stock index, bond,commodity, etc.) at time t. The long term trend over some ti scale T is defined as: mt:=1Tlog . For each contract and time t, we associate a point(x,y) where x is the de-trended past return on scale t'< and y the de-trended future return on scale t>:x:= logp(t)−logp(t−t'<)−mtt'<;y:= logp(t+t'>)−logp(t)−mtm't'. Note that the future return is de-trended in a causal way, i.e. no future information is used here (otherwise mean-reversion would be trivial). For convenience, both x and y are normalized such that their variance is unity. Remarkably, all data,including futures and spot data lead to the same overall conclusions. See in chart; As the function of the past (time) horizon t'< (log scale) for Red & White Bars, the futures daily data and spot monthly data. To compare the behaviour of the regression slope shown in the chart with a simple model, assume that the de-trended log-price pi(t) evolves as a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a positively correlated trending noise m. It is immediately apparent from the dashed line in the chart that the prediction of such a model with g= 0.22, k−1= 16 years and y'−1= 33 days, chosen to fit the futures data and g= 0.33, k'−1= 8 years and gh'−1= 200 days, chosen to fit the spot data. In the short term volatility of prices is simply given by S'2k's'. Non-linear effects A closer look at the plot(x,y )however reveals significant departure from a simple linear behaviour. One expects trend effects to weaken as the absolute value of past returns increases, as indeed reported previously. We have therefore attempted a cubic polynomial regression, devised to capture both potential asymmetries between positive and negative returns, and saturation or even inversion effects for large returns. The conclusion on the change of sign of the slope around yt'<= 2 years is therefore robust. The quadratic term, on the other hand, is positive for short lags but becomes negative at longer lags, for both data sets. The cubic term appears to be negative for all time scales in the case of futures, but this conclusion is less clear-cut for spot data. The behaviour of the quadratic term is interesting, as it indicates that positive trends are stronger than negative trends on short time scales, while negative trends are stronger than positive trends on long time scales. A negative cubic term, on the other hand, suggests that large moves (in absolute value) tend to mean-revert, as expected, even on short time scales where trend is dominant for small moves. Taking these non-linearities into account however does not affect much the time scale for which the linear coefficient vanishes, i.e. roughly 2 years Conclusion Here we have provided some further evidence that markets trend on the medium term (months) and mean-revert on the long term (several years). This coincides with Black’s intuition that prices tend to be off by a factor of 2. It takes roughly 6 years for the price of an asset with 20 % annual volatility to vary by 50 %. We further postulate the presence of two types of agents in financial markets: Technical Analysts , who act as trend followers, and Fundamental Analysts , whose effects set in when the price is clearly out of whack. Mean-reversion is a self-correcting mechanism, tempering (albeit only weakly) the exuberance in financial markets. From a practical point of view, these results suggest that universal trend following strategies should be supplemented by universal price-based “value strategies" that mean-revert on long term returns. As it's been observed before, trend-following strategies offer a hedge against market draw-downs while value strategies offer a hedge against over-exploited trends.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Nemo_Confidat
8
DVN uptrend - What to expectI took some time this morning to go over the chart for Devon Energy. It looks like there is a lot of room for potential. 35 Analysts say 86% BUY. Trend continuity is in perptual uptrend. There's a steady diagonal line there. Earnings report coming up in July. There are some good short squeeze positions at the pinnacle of those bounces as well however if you buy now and hold until the end of the year there is a good potential for gains at just under 50%.
NYSE:DVNLong
by cleverfoxinbox