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Silver not likely to go lower than it is right nowSilver ended last week not looking so good, and it has lead to a bad start for this week too. After breaking below $25 resistance, it has held above the next level of 24.75. It is likely to retest this zone again this week, so depending when you're reading this the title of this article may not be exactly true - but I'm really looking at where silver is likely to close at the end of the week. It's looking a bit oversold. I like to look at the silver/usd chart, but when I want to take a deeper look at how silver is doing on a global scale, then I look at the silver/DXY. Makes sense, right? If you know what the dxy is. Anyway, that's the chart I have posted here. As you can see, silver has hit the bottom of an ascending wedge. These ascending wedges have been bullish for silver for the past decade at least. The price action could dip below this line throughout the week, but as long as it closes on Friday at or above this line, then it is considered to still be holding. That's great news for silver apes. The only unfortunate part about this is that by this chart... it looks like we'll have to wait a while before silver breaks above $30. Like sometime in 2022. Actually that's not that bad. Probably will be here before we know it. For people stacking for decades, that's nothin
TVC:SILVERLong
by greenvention
Predicting the Time-window for Turns, in all MarketsInexplicably, upon publishing this post, the Title Chart becomes distorted beyond recognition thus, all references are to this Original Chart - below Do markets trend on the medium term (months) and mean-revert on the long run (years)? Does Black's intuition bear out that prices tend to be off approximately by a factor of 2? (Taking years to equilibrate.) How does Technical Analysis , as a whole, act as a trend following system while Fundamental Analysis matters only once prices get way out of line? Is mean-reversion a sufficient self-correcting mechanism to temper irrational exuberance in financial markets? We examine these questions in the proceeding; In his 1986 piece Fisher Black wrote: "An efficient market is one in which price is within a factor 2 of value, i.e. the price is more than half of value and less than twice value. He went on saying: The factor of 2 is arbitrary, of course. Intuitively, though, it seems reasonable to me, in the light of sources of uncertainty about value and the strength of the forces tending to cause price to return to value. By this definition, I think almost all markets are efficient almost all of the time." The myth that “informed traders" step in and arbitrage away any small discrepancies between value and prices never made much sense. If for no other reason but the wisdom of crowds is too easily distracted by trends and panic. Humans are pretty much clueless about the “fundamental value" of anything traded in markets, save perhaps a few instruments in terms of some relative value. Prices regularly evolve pretty much unbridled in response to uninformed supply and demand flows, until the difference with value becomes so strong that some mean-reversion forces prices back to more reasonable levels. Black imagined, Efficient Market Theory would only make sense on time scales longer than the mean-reversion time (TMR), the order of magnitude of which is set by S√TMR∼d. For stock indices wit hS∼20%/year, makes TMR = ∼6 years. The dynamics of prices within Black’s uncertainty band is in fact not random but exhibits trends: in the absence of strong fundamental anchoring forces, investors tend to under-react to news or take cues from past price changes themselves. In fact, the notorious and unbridled reliance and un-anchored, speculative extrapolation is the mainstay of most investors, as well as Wall Street's itself, as it is the regular course of everyday "investing" across most asset classes. In the following a picture emerges (and we test it), whether market returns are positively correlated on time scales TMR and negatively correlated on long time scales ∼TMR, before eventually following the (very) long term fate of fundamental value - in what looks like a biased geometric random walk with a non-stationary drift. We have looked at a very large set of financial instruments, drawing on data sets from 1800 - 2020 (i.e. 220 years). We applied the same method to all available data in Stocks, Bonds, FX, Commodity Futures and Spot Prices, the shortest data set going back 1955. As it turns out that, in particular, mean-reversion forces start cancelling trend following forces after a period of around 2 years, and mean-reversion seems to peak for channel widths on the order of 50-100%, which corresponds to Black’s “factor 2”. Mean-reversion appears as a mitigating force against trend following that allows markets to become efficient on the very long run, as anticipated previously by many authors. Regarding the data we used for this study; Commodity Data sets - Starting date Natural Gas 1986 Corn 1858 Wheat 1841 Sugar 1784 Live Cattle 1858 Copper 1800 Equity Price data sets - Starting date USA 1791 Australia 1875 Canada 1914 Germany 1870 Switzerlan 1914 Japan 1914 United Kingdom 1693 From trends to mean-reversion The relation between past de-trended returns on scale t'< and future de-trended returns on scale t'>. Defining p(t) as the price level of any asset (stock index, bond,commodity, etc.) at time t. The long term trend over some ti scale T is defined as: mt:=1Tlog . For each contract and time t, we associate a point(x,y) where x is the de-trended past return on scale t'< and y the de-trended future return on scale t>:x:= logp(t)−logp(t−t'<)−mtt'<;y:= logp(t+t'>)−logp(t)−mtm't'. Note that the future return is de-trended in a causal way, i.e. no future information is used here (otherwise mean-reversion would be trivial). For convenience, both x and y are normalized such that their variance is unity. Remarkably, all data,including futures and spot data lead to the same overall conclusions. See in chart; As the function of the past (time) horizon t'< (log scale) for Red & White Bars, the futures daily data and spot monthly data. To compare the behaviour of the regression slope shown in the chart with a simple model, assume that the de-trended log-price pi(t) evolves as a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a positively correlated trending noise m. It is immediately apparent from the dashed line in the chart that the prediction of such a model with g= 0.22, k−1= 16 years and y'−1= 33 days, chosen to fit the futures data and g= 0.33, k'−1= 8 years and gh'−1= 200 days, chosen to fit the spot data. In the short term volatility of prices is simply given by S'2k's'. Non-linear effects A closer look at the plot(x,y )however reveals significant departure from a simple linear behaviour. One expects trend effects to weaken as the absolute value of past returns increases, as indeed reported previously. We have therefore attempted a cubic polynomial regression, devised to capture both potential asymmetries between positive and negative returns, and saturation or even inversion effects for large returns. The conclusion on the change of sign of the slope around yt'<= 2 years is therefore robust. The quadratic term, on the other hand, is positive for short lags but becomes negative at longer lags, for both data sets. The cubic term appears to be negative for all time scales in the case of futures, but this conclusion is less clear-cut for spot data. The behaviour of the quadratic term is interesting, as it indicates that positive trends are stronger than negative trends on short time scales, while negative trends are stronger than positive trends on long time scales. A negative cubic term, on the other hand, suggests that large moves (in absolute value) tend to mean-revert, as expected, even on short time scales where trend is dominant for small moves. Taking these non-linearities into account however does not affect much the time scale for which the linear coefficient vanishes, i.e. roughly 2 years Conclusion Here we have provided some further evidence that markets trend on the medium term (months) and mean-revert on the long term (several years). This coincides with Black’s intuition that prices tend to be off by a factor of 2. It takes roughly 6 years for the price of an asset with 20 % annual volatility to vary by 50 %. We further postulate the presence of two types of agents in financial markets: Technical Analysts , who act as trend followers, and Fundamental Analysts , whose effects set in when the price is clearly out of whack. Mean-reversion is a self-correcting mechanism, tempering (albeit only weakly) the exuberance in financial markets. From a practical point of view, these results suggest that universal trend following strategies should be supplemented by universal price-based “value strategies" that mean-revert on long term returns. As it's been observed before, trend-following strategies offer a hedge against market draw-downs while value strategies offer a hedge against over-exploited trends.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Nemo_Confidat
8
DVN uptrend - What to expectI took some time this morning to go over the chart for Devon Energy. It looks like there is a lot of room for potential. 35 Analysts say 86% BUY. Trend continuity is in perptual uptrend. There's a steady diagonal line there. Earnings report coming up in July. There are some good short squeeze positions at the pinnacle of those bounces as well however if you buy now and hold until the end of the year there is a good potential for gains at just under 50%.
NYSE:DVNLong
by cleverfoxinbox
PLTR Predicted Trend Line and Price target at $38Covering somethings I see in the price action right now with PLTR and why I think it will go to $38. I use previous trend lines and match them to current price action, as the market is always repeating itself. I also use price action to identify the current down trend and New Uptrend to show the angle at which price action will follow up. Combine that with some Wyckoff Schematics, knowledge dealing with the Curve, and some Node ideology to find your entry and exit and you have a path laid out for you. This video is only 6 mins long so I didnt cover every little thing I see in the market just brushed over a few of them. Thanks for watching. If you want more of these please like, follow, subscribe. If you have questions feel free to comment below and I will make sure to reply to all of them. Thanks again. by iCantw84it 05.14.2021
PLong
by iCantw84it
2
BTC - Ranging since Feb. Oct 20 Trendline Still in Tact. Buy!Our October of 2020 trendline is still intact. We hit that and bounced hard. On this 4 hour chart, you can see we're currently resting on our trendline from Feb. of this year. I think between these two trendlines providing enormous support and the fact that we have been ranging between 50k and 60k since Feb., BTC has never looked more bullish to me. For several years I have been calling 80k this year. And actually, this chart, along with recent daily price action, has been enough to convince me that I am wrong again. We're not going to 80k this year. We are going to 100-120k. I can think of nothing more bullish than what I am seeing on these charts. Happy trading all!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
1
TRXUSDT Price Predictionhi friends this is TRON 4 Hour Chart based on this impulse(Big Black Arrow) SHIBO drew four lines for me as you See the SL1 AND SL3 lines are exactly matched with previous peaks and price touched SL3 so if price bounce from each one of this lines(SLx) then our next preferred take profit target is CTP3 and then TP1 I expect the price to correct in this range and then go up for now you can buy TRON at SL3 and your Stop loss at SL1(or buy your second step at SL1)
Long
by shahabs2004
4
BTCUSDT Price Prediction(1hour chart)hi friends this is a BTCUSDT 1 Hour Chart there are Two Good Impulses Wave A and Wave B Start of Wave B is End of Wave A's Correction as you See calculations of SHIBO is Accurate Because End Of Wave B Impulse just Touched Wave A CTP3(WHY CTP3? >> the Wave A Correction red Arrow just Broke A:SL3 line so preferred Take Profit line is CTP3) and now for wave b the price is very Close to B:SL1 that is a Major stop loss for this wave. if Price bounce from here so First Take profit is B:CTP3(59150) hope it help you in your Trades ALERT: Trade on Your Risk and analysis. use this prediction along your trade plan and Analyzes. ---------------------------------- What is SHIBO? I'm researching a method I have named SHIBO. SHIBO sets the price of the next Target(Take Profit ,TP) based on the price movement of power and its correction. I am examining this method and determining its rules. To date, this method has been very accurate. Take a look at previous ideas to see how successful they have been. After I was able to register this method and style in my own name i will reveal Details. I must first prove that this method is very accurate. So I put my ideas together so that more people can get acquainted with it THINK Simple is my approach. there are no more lines and too many shapes on chart. its simple to understand. if you are looking for complicated analysis so community is full of them. I respect them all. now go to chart I calculate Stop Loss(Warning, SL) and Take Profit(TP1,TP2,TP3,CTP) points based on : 1-price movement 2-price start, high and retracement 3-i don't look for S & R lines(but if you found border line and price are according to them it is a very good Sign) how to use prediction: SHIBO show you max of 4 Take Profit line and Warning Level and Stop loss the best one is TP1 that has higher win rate but if CTP is lower than TP1 I prefer selecting CTP using Warning,SL1,SL2,SL3: if price bounce from border line(SL) it could take TARGET but if price break border line and close on it so prediction may fail and stop Reach.
Long
by shahabs2004
UVXY Will Win Big TomorrowThis analysis is based on my AI system and I have included the top 10 estimates for tomorrow (5/5/2021) for the biggest gainers tomorrow. Let me know what you think! Top 10 AI Stock Picks for Thursday, May 6, 2021 The following information is in beta testing and isn't meant for a live portfolio. Use this information for paper trading only until further notice. Symbol Last Close Next Day High Est Pct% UVXY 4.55 7.39 62.48% DPW 2.91 4.27 47.06% GSX 27.03 34.72 28.44% RMED 3.84 4.84 26.09% MOON 34.32 40.75 18.73% RBLX 66.64 77.89 16.88% ROKU 302.80 353.69 16.80% AGQ 47.99 55.26 15.15% COUR 41.36 46.93 13.48% BKI 71.39 80.35 12.55% prnt.sc
CBOE:UVXYLong
by cheatcountry
39
DOGEUSDT Lovershi doge lovers DAILY Chart by this analysis doge in its previous Strong impulse (black arrow) had a correction(Red Arrow) that broke SL3 so its preferred Take profit Level is CTP3 and now this Levels profit is Taken already but in my opinion if it could break this CTP3 to up, so Price could Go to 1.4 good luck and be careful ALERT: Trade on Your Risk and analysis. use this prediction along your trade plan and Analyzes. ---------------------------------- What is SHIBO? I'm researching a method I have named SHIBO. SHIBO sets the price of the next Target(Take Profit ,TP) based on the price movement of power and its correction. I am examining this method and determining its rules. To date, this method has been very accurate. Take a look at previous ideas to see how successful they have been. After I was able to register this method and style in my own name i will reveal Details. I must first prove that this method is very accurate. So I put my ideas together so that more people can get acquainted with it THINK Simple is my approach. there are no more lines and too many shapes on chart. its simple to understand. if you are looking for complicated analysis so community is full of them. I respect them all. now go to chart I calculate Stop Loss(Warning, SL) and Take Profit(TP1,TP2,TP3,CTP) points based on : 1-price movement 2-price start, high and retracement 3-i don't look for S & R lines(but if you found border line and price are according to them it is a very good Sign) how to use prediction: SHIBO show you max of 4 Take Profit line and Warning Level and Stop loss the best one is TP1 that has higher win rate but if CTP is lower than TP1 I prefer selecting CTP using Warning,SL1,SL2,SL3: if price bounce from border line(SL) it could take TARGET but if price break border line and close on it so prediction may fail and stop Reach.
by shahabs2004
1
ATOMUSDT Price Prediction(4H chart)Hi friends my previous prediction on ATOMUSDT is still running(related IDEA) in this prediction on 4 hour Chart you see that price could go up to blue point 32.117 and border line set at 24.776 that is same as 1W0_TP2 weekly border line. this prediction is based on SHIBO Method ---------------------------------- What is SHIBO? I'm researching a method I have named SHIBO. SHIBO sets the price of the next ceiling(Target, Take Profit, TP) based on the price movement of power and its correction. I am examining this method and determining its rules. To date, this method has been very accurate. Take a look at previous ideas to see how successful they have been. After I was able to register this method and style in my own name I will reveal Details. I must first prove that this method is very accurate. So I put my ideas together so that more people can get acquainted with it THINK Simple is my approach. there are no more lines and too many shapes on chart. its simple to understand. if you are looking for complicated analysis so community is full of them. I respect them all. now go to chart I calculate Border line and Take profit points(Price note Labels) based on : 1-price movement 2-price start, high and retracement 3-market state( bullish or bearish ) 4-i don't look for S & R lines(but if you found border line and price are according to them it is a very good Sign) 5-GREEN PRICE Labels are Targets that Reached in previous predictions 6-RED PRICE Labels are those cancelled or Stopped 7-BLUE PRICE Labels are in progress how to use prediction: first please go back and take a look at my previous predictions to see how is win rate second: in totally there are 2 point, one is border line and second is take profit or target using border line: if price bounce from border line it could take TARGET but if price break border line and close on it so prediction may fail and stop Reach. border line and targets are Labeled by time frame and variation.it means it may have two or more prediction in one time frame. labels of border and target have same text. each prediction contain previous prediction labels marked with failure or success. please comment and let me know. ALERT: Trade on Your Risk and analysis. use this prediction along your trade plan and Analyzes. Donate if you Got Benefit BTC:136pb1NaLvhhubK9sapawiufVpCU3JCzpY trx:TD9F9FamjQxmcyEPYGq7KKs883j8juvpod eth:0xB8EEFb52a1C232AcAC318026169332638A0a005A
Long
by shahabs2004
ATOMUSDT Price Prediction(weekly chart)THINK Simple is my approach. there are no more lines and too many shapes on chart. its simple to understand. if you are looking for complicated analysis so community is full of them. I respect them all. now go to chart I calculate Border line and Take profit points(Price note Labels) based on : 1-price movement 2-price start, high and retracement 3-market state( bullish or bearish ) 4-i don't look for S & R lines(but if you found border line and price are according to them it is a very good Sign) 5-GREEN PRICE Labels are Targets that Reached in previous predictions 6-RED PRICE Labels are those cancelled or Stopped 7-BLUE PRICE Labels are in progress
Long
by shahabs2004
3
VETUSDT Price Prediction(2)Hi friends in this prediction based on SHIBO Method applied on weekly Chart you see three Green price note(Predicts that Happened) and Two Blue I hope Happens. Reaching 1M2_TP is not as accurate as 1M1_TP so be patient with my next lower Time Frames Predictions. ---------------------------------- What is SHIBO? I'm researching a method I have named SHIBO. SHIBO sets the price of the next ceiling(Target, Take Profit ,TP) based on the price movement of power and its correction. I am examining this method and determining its rules. To date, this method has been very accurate. Take a look at previous ideas to see how successful they have been. After I was able to register this method and style in my own name i will reveal Details. I must first prove that this method is very accurate. So I put my ideas together so that more people can get acquainted with it THINK Simple is my approach. there are no more lines and too many shapes on chart. its simple to understand. if you are looking for complicated analysis so community is full of them. I respect them all. now go to chart I calculate Border line and Take profit points(Price note Labels) based on : 1-price movement 2-price start, high and retracement 3-market state( bullish or bearish ) 4-i don't look for S & R lines(but if you found border line and price are according to them it is a very good Sign) 5-GREEN PRICE Labels are Targets that Reached in previous predictions 6-RED PRICE Labels are those cancelled or Stopped 7-BLUE PRICE Labels are in progress 8- 1W>>predictions based on weekly Chart 4H>>predictions based on 4Hour Chart 1M>>predictions based on Monthly Chart and so on how to use prediction: first please go back and take a look at my previous predictions to see how is win rate second: in totally there are 2 point, one is border line and second is take profit or target using border line(if its there): if price bounce from border line it could take TARGET but if price break border line and close on it so prediction may fail and stop Reach. border line and targets are Labeled by time frame and variation.it means it may have two or more prediction in one time frame. labels of border and target have same text. each prediction contain previous prediction labels marked with failure or success. please comment and let me know. ALERT : Trade on Your Risk and analysis. use this prediction along your trade plan and Analyzes. Donate if you Got Benefit BTC:136pb1NaLvhhubK9sapawiufVpCU3JCzpY trx:TD9F9FamjQxmcyEPYGq7KKs883j8juvpod eth:0xB8EEFb52a1C232AcAC318026169332638A0a005A
Long
by shahabs2004