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Two Possible Outcomes for SPY Post July CPI Read I'd like to kick off this analysis by saying these are two potential outcomes of SPY's future price action given that market fundamentals stay largely unchanged before and after the CPI release next Wednesday, i.e., no escalation in Taiwan and no wild earnings surprises before and directly after the read (yes, I know that is a lot to assume). The expected paths I have for SPY should not be taken as an exact estimate as they are relatively rough sketches of what I believe may occur. Path 1 (Green Path): CPI comes out lower than expected. Anything less than 8.9% and markets will likely respond positively to the news, due to the idea that headline inflation has peaked. SPY will likely rally past its current zone of resistance at the 416 area and rip up to the trend resistance around the 430 area. From there I would expect a pause in bullish momentum and at least a few weeks of sideways trading. Path 2 (Red Path): CPI comes out hot again, anything north of 9.1% would likely be enough to trigger this move down. The short-term bullish momentum will dissipate, as SPY tanks down toward the previous support area around 387. From there I expect either a long spurt of sideways trading or a resurgence of bearish control in markets leading the SPY down to the critical 350 support zone . What path is more likely? Despite my bearish outlook on markets, I do not think we will see a strong CPI print for July. I would assume CPI/headline inflation will come out weaker than consensus estimates, likely in the 8.2-8.5% range. My reasoning for this prediction comes from the sharp decrease in commodity prices across the board but most notably in food and energy prices (with exception of nat gas), all of which took place in the month of July. With that said I would say Path 1 is probably the more likely of the two outcomes. Warning : Although I expect CPI to fall, I expect the core inflation rate to come out above consensus estimates. This to me- and others - will signal that inflation is becoming more embedded into the US economy. The sky-high added jobs number for July provides solid evidence that core inflation is sticky and not going anywhere anytime soon. Core inflation coming out hot will likely put a damper on any good news markets receive from a lower-than-expected CPI. With that in mind, perhaps we see neither path 1 nor path 2 play out. We may see a choppy couple of weeks of trading as markets try to digest the meaning of two very contradictory inflation prints. As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by Gooby_Trades
1
XAUUSD Technical Analysis1st resistance level $1763-1769 Second resistance level $1775-1786 There was no military conflict between the US and China after the US top brass visited Taiwan and the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a unilateral and stern statement. In line with market expectations, gold prices are expected to risk aversion decay, there is a possibility of further pullback, such as a rebound to resistance levels can try to short, need to remind us that the political events (events have not escalated to military conflict) is still not over, need to beware of the price upward impulse. Like and Share
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Super_B_XinR
1
HYMC heading for a breakout? 7/12/2022HYMC seems to have changed its trend. You will see that we have entered with higher lows and higher highs. This could signal a breakout above 1.10 testing its next resistance level at 1.19. If the momentum continues then I would say that we could break out of the 200 DMA. However, there is A LOT of resistance at the 1.19 level. The MACD just crossed over and I am getting signals on the 3, 13 EMA Cross. The volume also seems to be steadily increasing with today being one of the better days for volume.
NASDAQ:HYMCLong
by Adventure_Joe
RBLX the Next 30 DaysI am new to this, but I really enjoy it and would love any feedback. This is not financial advice. This analysis is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. I think you will see one more major move up before watching it fall to the ground like a dead cat. This is based on the 5-3 theory and considering that this is a psychological play more than a fundamental play it would make sense to have one more major continuation before she falls through the floor.
RLong
by Adventure_Joe
EURUSD shows strong performanceThe U.S. government is trying to ride out the inflation crisis with a combination of interest rate hikes and loose fiscal and tight monetary policy, which could be a positive factor for the dollar. With food and energy inflation much higher in Europe than in the U.S., the market is predicting that the ECB will enter a rate hike cycle. The path of future rate hikes will depend on commodity prices and economic growth in the eurozone. The price is predicted to move to the gray zone in the chart. Like and Share
Long
by Super_B_XinR
1