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Opening (IRA): SPY July 18th 495 Short Put... for a 5.13 credit. Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Max Profit: 5.13 ROC at Max as a Function of Strike Price: 1.04% Will generally look to roll up if the short put is in profit at 45 DTE or greater, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on at the June 513's and July 495's, and/or consider a "window dressing" roll (i.e., a roll down to a strike that is paying about the same in credit) to milk the last drops out of the position.
AMEX:SPYLong
by NaughtyPines
4
NAS100USD: Price Respects Bearish Structure at 62% FibGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe sustained bearish institutional order flow, and we aim to align with this directional bias by identifying high-probability selling opportunities. KEY OBSERVATIONS: 1. Retracement into Premium Resistance: Price has recently retraced into premium pricing levels, reaching the 62% Fibonacci retracement zone—a level that often acts as dynamic resistance. This retracement also aligned with a bearish breaker block, confirming institutional resistance at that level. The market has since shown signs of rejection, reinforcing the bearish narrative. 2. Emergence of Fair Value Gap (FVG) as a Key Resistance Array: Following the rejection, a new FVG has formed, acting as a potential short-term resistance zone. This area provides a refined point of interest where institutions may look to re-engage in selling activity. The alignment of the FVG with previous resistance adds further confluence to the bearish setup. TRADING PLAN: We will monitor the newly formed FVG zone for signs of bearish confirmation. Upon confirmation, the plan is to execute short positions targeting liquidity pools in discounted price zones, in line with institutional price delivery patterns. Remain focused, wait for confirmation, and make sure this idea aligns with your overall trading plan. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
NAS100USD: Institutional Selling Initiated at Premium LevelsGreetings Traders, Today on NAS100USD, the market is currently operating within a clear bearish institutional order flow. In alignment with this directional bias, we are seeking selling opportunities supported by several key confluences. Key Observations: 1. Liquidity Sweep at Premium Pricing: Price has retraced deeply into a premium zone, sweeping the buy stops above a recent swing high. This suggests smart money is executing sell-side order pairing at extreme premium levels, utilizing retail liquidity for institutional distribution. When this occurs, price typically seeks rebalancing at fair value zones and continues toward discount levels. 2. Resistance at Fair Value Gap: Following the liquidity sweep, price encountered resistance at a previously identified fair value gap (FVG). This FVG has held effectively, reinforcing the bearish outlook and acting as a high-probability rejection zone. 3. Market Structure Shift (MSS): The market has now confirmed a bearish market structure shift, further validating the downside bias. This shift positions us to anticipate a continuation move. 4. Mitigation Block as Entry Zone: We are currently watching a mitigation block for potential re-entries. These blocks represent zones where smart money mitigates previous long positions and introduces new short positions in alignment with the prevailing trend. If confirmed, they offer a strategic point to enter short trades. Trading Plan: Monitor the mitigation block for confirmation and look to enter with the broader institutional trend. Targets will include fair value regions and deeper liquidity pools at discount prices. Remain patient and disciplined, and always ensure your analysis aligns with your trading plan. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
6
Opening (IRA): TLT May 16th 84 Short Put... for a 1.59 credit. Comments: High IVR; back in range of 52-week lows. Working both ends of the stick in 20 year+ paper with a covered call on one end of the stick, short puts on the other ... . Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 82.41/contract Max Profit: 1.59 ROC at Max: 1.93% 50% Max: .80 ROC at 50% Max: .96% Since I want to potentially pick up additional shares at a lower price, I will run this to expiry or approaching worthless (e.g., .05).
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IWM May 16th 190/195/220/225 Iron Condor... for a 1.70 credit. Comments: I think I have more than enough long delta on at the moment, so opting to go nondirectional/delta neutral here. Selling the 25's and buying the wings out from there, collecting one-third the width of the wings in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 3.30 Max Profit: 1.70 ROC at Max: 51.5% 50% Max: .85 ROC at 50% Max: 25.8% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in oppositional side on side test.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SPX May 16th 5130/5160/5850/5880 Iron Condor... for a 10.20 credit. Comments: High IVR/IV >21. Hesitant to add more long delta here, so going delta neutral in SPX and structuring the trade such that I receive one-third the width of the wings (30) in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 19.80 Max Profit: 10.20 ROC at Max: 51.52% 50% Max: 5.10 ROC at 50% Max: 25.8% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, rolling down oppositional side on side test, but won't hesitate to take profit quickly if IV crushes in dramatically post "Liberation Day."
SP:SPX
by NaughtyPines
NAS100USD: Retracement to Target Sell Stops Below Support ZoneGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, while the market is currently showing bullish momentum, there are clear signs that we may experience a retracement toward the downside. This move would likely target the discount sell stops below the illustrated support zone, providing an opportunity to align with institutional order flow. KEY OBSERVATIONS: Institutional Resistance Zone: A strong order block has formed, creating a significant resistance level that price may struggle to break through. This order block, coupled with the Fair Value Gap (FVG) beneath it, strengthens the bearish case. These two institutional resistance zones suggest a higher likelihood of a retracement. Premium Price Zone: Price is currently trading in a premium range, a favorable area to monitor for potential selling opportunities upon confirmation. Liquidity Target : Our primary target is the discount sell stops resting below an engineered support zone. This zone is a key draw on liquidity, where we anticipate significant institutional interest. TRADING PLAN: Entry Strategy : Wait for confirmation before entering short positions at the current premium price level. Targets : Focus on the liquidity pools below the support zone, particularly the discount sell stops, as these represent the main draw on liquidity. Patience and precision are crucial. By following institutional clues, we can effectively position ourselves for high-probability trades. Happy Trading! The Architect 🏛📊
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
1
NAS100USD: CPI Volatility & Institutional Continuation Sell-OffGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe that the market remains bearish following a significant CPI news release. This high-impact event resulted in a sharp bearish displacement, reinforcing the ongoing bearish narrative. Yesterday, I shared an analysis predicting this continued bearishness. For those interested, you’ll find that analysis attached at the end of this description for deeper context. KEY OBSERVATIONS: CPI-Induced Displacement : The CPI release triggered a large downward move, forming a massive single candle that left behind a noticeable inefficiency—a Fair Value Gap (FVG). Liquidity Grab & Fair Valuation: After sell stops were taken, price retraced to fill the FVG, restoring fair valuation. This retracement fully closed the gap, confirming a continuation of bearish order flow. Premium Price Zone: We are currently in a deep premium price range, which aligns with institutional distribution zones. These areas offer excellent opportunities for confirmation-based sell entries. TRADING PLAN: Entry Strategy: Look for confirmation at the current premium price level before entering short positions. Targets: Focus on discount liquidity pools at lower prices, as these are the areas institutions will likely target to take profits. By following the institutional flow, we align ourselves with smart money practices, improving our precision and probability of success. Stay patient and disciplined—confirmation is key! For more context, here’s yesterday’s analysis below. Happy Trading! The Architect 🏛📊
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
4
Opening (IRA): TSLA March 21st 330/335/465/470 IC*... for a 1.70 credit. Comments: Post-earnings, IV remains fairly decent here at 57.3. Selling the -20 delta short option legs and buying the wings out from there. Basically, just doing small stuff while I wait for other stuff to play out. Metrics: Max Profit: 1.70 Buying Power Effect: 3.30 ROC at Max: 51.2% 50% Max: .85 ROC at 50% Max: 25.8% Delta/Theta: .95/2.24 Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, consider doing a delta adjustment when the delta/theta ratio skews out to >2.0. * -- Iron Condor.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SMH February 21st 195/220/270/295 Iron Condor... for a 3.91 credit. Comments: Back into the semiconductor ETF, where I don't have a position on currently. Going comparatively low delta, with the short options camped out at the 17 delta on both sides and the wings about 1/10th the price of the underlying in width. Metrics: Max Profit: 3.91 Buying Power Effect: 21.09 ROC at Max: 18.54% 50% Max: 1.96 ROC at 50% Max: 9.27% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll untested side in toward current price on side test.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines