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Theta Machine I'm starting a new position into some tickers to use THETA as our main income generator:.
The goal is 30% return/year
Sell Puts Delta 5/10/15
55/45/ 40 DTE
Trades/Day = +6
Trades/Week = +30
Trade/Year = +1560
Credit/Trade = +$110.00
Book Size = 3.53%
Book Wipe Risk = 7.06%
Black Sawn Risk = 49.45%
PCR = 35%
Avg DIT = 15
Delta/Theta Ratio = 0.5 (hard to keep it)
Theta/ Vega Ratio = +0.2
Profit = 60%
Loss = -200%
Theta Machine - 12/07/2022THETA MACHINE UPDATE
No New Trades Today
I want VIX and IV to go higher so we can collect extra premium...if not tomorrow, by Friday I will increase the cost basis to +500, and Theta will be around $150/day.
Overall POP = 84%
POP = Probability of Profit
*Next Week volatility can spike as we will have CPI (Dec 12) and FED (Dec 13).
With that said, I will probably hedge with Micro Futures.
*Quick TIP if you want to hedge your portfolio>
+50 Delta = 1 /MES (Micro)
+500 Delta = 1 /ES (Mini)
My Delta Beta Weight now is around 100, so In order to hedge I need to Sell 2 Micro Futures (2x /MES)
Rolling (Margin): XOP Dec 16th 127C/147P to Jan 20th 130C/147P... for a 3.67 credit.
Comments: Rolling for a realized gain with this down move. There was no 127 strike, so rolled the short call to the 130 and the short put "as is." Total credits collected of 28.47 on a 17 wide inverted. Resulting delta/theta -38.14/15.30 with 13.43 of extrinsic, so I'm indicating here that it's a "short" position.
Still looking at this for tax loss harvest, but wanted to give it an additional chance running into year's end to make something of itself.
Opening (Margin): /CL February 15th 40 Short Put... for a 1.70 credit.
Comments: Taking a small, far out-of-the-money trade on weakness here, targeting the strike paying around 10% of buying power effect in credit. 1.70 credit on BPE of 16.32; 10.4% ROC at max; 5.2% ROC at 50% max as a function of buying power effect.
Opening (IRA): SPY June 16th 230 Short Put... for a 2.31 credit.
Comments: Part of a longer-dated strategy in SPY targeting the <16 strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. Will generally look to roll at 50% max, whenever that occurs.
Naturally, I'll deploy into shorter duration if we get weakness plus a higher implied volatility environment.
Opened (Margin): /ES February 17th 2200 Short Put... for a 3.20 credit.
Comments: SPAN margin lets you do weird things on occasion. Added this rung nearly buying power free Thursday night, probably because the SPAN margin calculation evaluated the risk of this addition and thought that it increased my "holistic" or "global" risk only marginally (the BPE was < the credit received).