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Theta Machine - 12/07/2022THETA MACHINE UPDATE No New Trades Today I want VIX and IV to go higher so we can collect extra premium...if not tomorrow, by Friday I will increase the cost basis to +500, and Theta will be around $150/day. Overall POP = 84% POP = Probability of Profit *Next Week volatility can spike as we will have CPI (Dec 12) and FED (Dec 13). With that said, I will probably hedge with Micro Futures. *Quick TIP if you want to hedge your portfolio> +50 Delta = 1 /MES (Micro) +500 Delta = 1 /ES (Mini) My Delta Beta Weight now is around 100, so In order to hedge I need to Sell 2 Micro Futures (2x /MES)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by IronMan_Trader
1
Rolling (Margin): XOP Dec 16th 127C/147P to Jan 20th 130C/147P... for a 3.67 credit. Comments: Rolling for a realized gain with this down move. There was no 127 strike, so rolled the short call to the 130 and the short put "as is." Total credits collected of 28.47 on a 17 wide inverted. Resulting delta/theta -38.14/15.30 with 13.43 of extrinsic, so I'm indicating here that it's a "short" position. Still looking at this for tax loss harvest, but wanted to give it an additional chance running into year's end to make something of itself.
AMEX:XOPShort
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SPY March 17th 280 Short Put... for a 2.81 credit. Comments: Part of a longer-dated premium selling strategy in broad market to keep theta on and burning while I wait for shorter duration to be more productive. Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Will generally look to roll either intraexpiry or for duration at 50% max. I'm also looking to attempt to remain more maximally deployed, which can be difficult if you're going to do things primarily this way versus some mix of long stock positions (which tie up oodles of buying power) with premium selling positions as an add-on or as an acquisitional approach (i.e., short put, acquire, cover). One way to look at these longer-dated positions is that they're small stock positions (which people are generally more comfortable with holding for extended periods of time), even though they differ in one fundamental way, and that's they're dynamic (as opposed to being static delta, as stock would be). Additionally, the ROC as a function of buying power effect (annualized or otherwise) isn't exactly fabulous out of the box, which is why you'll want to roll these at 50% max to collect additional credit (without extending duration if you can) to bring in more of "the fabulous."
AMEX:SPYLong
by NaughtyPines
Rolling (Margin): XOP November 18th 127 Short Straddle... to the December 16th 128C/133P inverted short strangle for a 4.02 credit. Comments: Rolling out at 21 days to go to reduce "random" assignment risk on the short call. Total credits collected of 21.96. I've gone slightly inverted here as well as improved the short call strike a smidge to keep the short delta metrics similar to what they would be were I to be in a covered put with a 40 delta short leg. This results in delta/theta -60.27/15.68 with a call side break even off 149.96. A "perfect" finish would be in between the strikes, but I'm looking to basically scratch this out or make something small on it.
AMEX:XOPShort
by NaughtyPines