Opening (Margin): /ES April 21st 4800 Short Call... for a 3.35 credit.
Comments: On second thought ... . Re-erecting a short call here after taking off a shorter duration one at 50% max. This would be better done on strength, but I have some "unit imbalance" here on the put side (i.e., a greater number of put side units than call ones) and would rather keep the short call in place until I'm able to pull one or more of those units off, particularly since I get it buying power free here.
Premiumselling
Opening (Margin): /ES May 19th 1700 Short Put... for a 3.20 credit.
Comments: Adding back in a rung nearly buying power free. Will look to add in shorter-dated rungs, assuming I can do them at strikes lower than what I've currently got on for the around 3.00 in credit I've been looking to get out of these.
Opening (Margin): /CL March 16th 37 Short Put... for a 1.60 credit.
Comments: Selling /CL premium on weakness, but giving myself plenty of room to be wrong, targeting the strike that is 50% of current price that has an ROC metric of >10%. 1.60 credit on buying power effect of 9.71. 16.5% ROC as a function of buying power effect; 8.2% at 50% max.
Opening (Margin): /ES April 28th 1800 Short Put... for a 3.00 credit.
Comments: After having taken off my most-at risk strike in the February 28th expiry at the 2200 strike, adding back in a rung in longer duration, but lower down the ladder ... and virtually buying power free due to the size of the short delta in my one short call relative to the long delta in my short puts.
Opening (Margin): /NG January 26th 12.5/13.5 Short Call Vertical... for a 1.80 credit.
Comments: Short call vertical hedge against my short put verticals. Will look to take off the 1.8/2.8/12.5/13.5 iron condor on which I've collected a total of 3.60 ($360) as a unit at 50% max and scratch out the more at-risk 1.9/2.9 short put vertical if I get the opportunity.
Opening (Margin): /ES April 21st 1900 Short Put... for a 3.45 credit.
Comments: An additive long delta trade that I get nearly buying power free due to /ES position net delta, now targeting the 50% of current price strike for around 3.00 in credit. As usual, will generally look to take profit at 50% max, but won't hesitate to take more at-risk strikes off for less with the current most at-risk strike being the February 28th 2200.
Trade Plan 12/14/2022
TP1>
if we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 4054, we can test > 4081 > 4141 > 4186 > 4207 > 4221
TP2>
if we Open/Trade below MAIN POC 4054 > we can test > 4035 > 3995 > 3980 > 3960 > 3934 > 3914 (LIS - Bulls Trapped)
*All those levels will be INVALID as tomorrow 2:00 PM we will have FOMC Interest Rates REPORT ! GET READY for LOTTO TRADES. $ES can move again +100/150 handles.... Yep, believe me or not we are going to survive tomorrow also !!
Daily PIN BAR candle
fading all the CPI pre-mkt move.
STRONG HIGH = SUPER BEARISH / REVERSAL
Reason I'm Flat and waiting to short, we have FOMC Tomorrow 12/14/2022 by 2:00pm.
Theta Machine I'm starting a new position into some tickers to use THETA as our main income generator:.
The goal is 30% return/year
Sell Puts Delta 5/10/15
55/45/ 40 DTE
Trades/Day = +6
Trades/Week = +30
Trade/Year = +1560
Credit/Trade = +$110.00
Book Size = 3.53%
Book Wipe Risk = 7.06%
Black Sawn Risk = 49.45%
PCR = 35%
Avg DIT = 15
Delta/Theta Ratio = 0.5 (hard to keep it)
Theta/ Vega Ratio = +0.2
Profit = 60%
Loss = -200%
Theta Machine - 12/07/2022THETA MACHINE UPDATE
No New Trades Today
I want VIX and IV to go higher so we can collect extra premium...if not tomorrow, by Friday I will increase the cost basis to +500, and Theta will be around $150/day.
Overall POP = 84%
POP = Probability of Profit
*Next Week volatility can spike as we will have CPI (Dec 12) and FED (Dec 13).
With that said, I will probably hedge with Micro Futures.
*Quick TIP if you want to hedge your portfolio>
+50 Delta = 1 /MES (Micro)
+500 Delta = 1 /ES (Mini)
My Delta Beta Weight now is around 100, so In order to hedge I need to Sell 2 Micro Futures (2x /MES)
Rolling (Margin): XOP Dec 16th 127C/147P to Jan 20th 130C/147P... for a 3.67 credit.
Comments: Rolling for a realized gain with this down move. There was no 127 strike, so rolled the short call to the 130 and the short put "as is." Total credits collected of 28.47 on a 17 wide inverted. Resulting delta/theta -38.14/15.30 with 13.43 of extrinsic, so I'm indicating here that it's a "short" position.
Still looking at this for tax loss harvest, but wanted to give it an additional chance running into year's end to make something of itself.