Opening (Margin): /ES January 20th 4630 Short Call... for a 3.10 credit.
Comments: Short delta hedge against my short put ladder on strength.
Premiumselling
Opened (Margin): AAPL Dec 16th 100/Nov 18th 136 LCD*... for a 23.23 debit.
Comments: (Late Post). Did this fairly obvious bullish assumption play in AAPL on Friday weakness, buying the back expiry 90, and selling the front expiry at-the-money. 2.77 ($277) max profit; 11.9% ROC at max; 6.0% at 50% max.
Cost basis of 23.23 with a 133.23 break even on a 26 wide. Max is realized on a finish above 136, with the profit zone being above the break even at 133.23. I don't have many cost basis reduction/rolling opportunities of the short call, so will money/take/run if given the opportunity. Currently, I'm shooting for 50% max/1.39 ($139) profit, so have entered a GTC order to take profit at 24.61.
* -- Long call diagonal.
GBP/JPY - London session.Morning small profit taken. I was late to enter at premium but no matter. It did play out from FVG which was created during Asian session. Price got back to FVG and slowly start falling. At the moment I'll be looking to go Long once new setup will form.
Closed (Margin): /GC December 27th 1400 Short Put... for an .80 debit.
Comments: Filled this for a 1.40 credit. (See Post Below). Out here for .80, .60 ($60) profit.
Closed (Margin): /ES April 21st 1300 Short Put... for a 1.50 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 3.05 credit. (See Post Below). Out here for 1.50. (3.05 - 1.50)/2 = .7750/$77.50 profit with 168 days to go.
Closed (IRA): SPY March 17th 260 Short Put... for a 1.36 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 2.73 credit. (See Post Below). Closing here at 50% max. 1.37/$137 profit.
Closed (Margin): /ES March 17th 1500 Short Put... for a 1.55 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 3.10 credit. (See Post Below). Out here at 50% max. (3.10 - 1.55)/2 = .775/$77.50 profit.
Closed (Margin): /ES January 4780 Short Call... for a 1.50 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 3.05 credit. (See Post Below). Hit 50% max today. (3.05 - 1.50)/2 = .775 ($77.50) profit.
TLT -- When I'm Going to Thinking About Going Long 20 Year+The short answer is: at pre-Great Recession levels when the yield on the 10-year T note was at 5.0% or above.
Current forecasts for the terminal Fed funds rate are for 4.75-5.00 in February of 2023, which could push the 20 year+ paper exchange-traded fund back to near 2006-2007 levels between 80.50 and 82.05. (See, $TNX, June '06 high, 5.245, correspondent with a TLT 82.56 low; June '07 high, 5.316, correspondent with a TLT 82.20 low).
If current bets as to the terminal rate are correct, we should fall short of the 2006 and 2007 levels, but could nevertheless be pretty darn close. And since current bets are that the Fed Funds rate doesn't come off 4.75-5.00 until much later in the year (the current forecast, is, ugh, November of 2023), this would conceivably require a good amount of time to work out.
As we've seen, however, things can change. A few months ago, bets weren't being made on a terminal rate quite this high and that a potential cut would come far sooner in 2023. But, here we are. Inflation could either remain "sticky," or come down rapidly in response to what the Fed has done so far, in which case, we never see the low 80s in 20 year+ maturity paper.
Naturally, if we do get there, I'll look to dip my toe in, whether it be with short puts (which would be a quasi-acquisitional play, most likely in my IRA) or something more directional, like a long call diagonal or a zebra/call ratio backspread ... .
Opening (Margin): /ES January 20th 4780 Short Call... for a 3.05 credit.
Comments: If you can't buy on weakness, "sell" on strength. A hedge against my remaining /ES rungs in March and April at 30 day highs.
Closed (IRA): SPY January 20th 300 Short Put... for a 1.46 debit.
Comments: Opened this as part of a four-legged short put ladder for 3.22. (See Post Below). Out here at >50% max. 1.76 ($176) profit.
Closed (IRA): SPY January 20th 295 Short Put... for a 1.30 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 3.07 credit. (See Post Below). Closing it out here at greater than 50% max. 1.77 ($177) profit.
Closed (IRA): IWM November 18th 163 Short Put... for a .57 debit.
Comments: Collected a total of 2.72 with rolls on this one. (See Post Below). Out for .57; 2.15 ($215) total profit.
Closed (Margin): /ES February 17th 1600 Short Put... for a 1.55 debit.
Comments: Opened this last week for a 3.15 credit as a 2023 "starter position." (See Post Below). Out today at 50% max. (3.15 - 1.55)/2 = .80 ($80) profit with 112 days to go.
Closed (IRA): SPY December 16th 325 Short Put... for a 1.55 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 3.41 credit (See Post Below). Out here for a 1.55 debit. 1.86 ($186) profit.
Closed (Margin): /ES January 20th 1800 Short Put... for a 1.50 debit.
Comments: Filled this for a 3.05 credit. (See Post Below). Out here at 50% max with 84 days to go. (3.05 - 1.50)/2 = .775 ($77.50) profit.
Closed (IRA): IWM December 16th 145 Short Put... for a .76 debit.
Comments: (Late Post). Collected a total of 2.11 in credits. (See Post Below). Out today for a .76 debit. 1.35 ($135) profit.
This leaves me with two rungs -- the November 18th 163 (currently 14 delta) and the November 18th 173 (currently 33 delta), for a total of 44 long delta. Both of these are hedged off with a long put vertical in IWM (See Post Below), which is currently marking at -74 delta. I'll be rolling out the short leg of the diagonal tomorrow, which will decrease the short delta slightly, after which I will look to see whether I should add back in IWM long delta to make sure that I'm not too short/directional in this position. (33 long - 74 short = -41 delta). As part of this consideration, I also need to look at my portfolio delta as a whole to see whether it's okay to keep the IWM position net delta short, since it enjoys a close correlation with SPY (.95 3-month).
Since it kind of drives me slightly bonkers to leave positions skewed out (regardless of whether they can do double duty as a closely correlated broad market hedge), I'll probably end up adding some long delta back in.
Closed (Margin): /ES January 20th 1700 Short Put... for a 1.50 debit.
Comments: Hit 50% max as I was writing a post about two rungs I added last night. Lol. Opened this for 3.00 (See Post Below); out here for 1.50 with 86 days to go. (3.00 - 1.50)/2 - .75 ($75) profit.
Opened (Margin): /ES April 21st 1300 Short Put... for a 3.05 credit.
Comments: (Late Post). Added this rung on 10/25. Will look to add additional rungs in weakness if I can potentially get in at better strikes than what I currently have on or if something falls off at 50% max.
Opened (Margin): /ES March 17th 1500 Short Put... for a 3.10 credit.
Comments: (Late Post). Opened this on 10/25. Max profit of 3.10/2 or 1.55 on buying power of 12.66. 12.2% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 6.1% at 50% max. 31.4% ROC annualized at max; 15.7% annualized at 50% max.
Closed (IRA): SPY March 30th 230 Short Put... for a 1.23 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 2.41 credit as part of a Jan/Feb/March short put ladder. (See Post Below). Out here at just a smidge shy of 50% max. 2.41 - 1.23 = 1.18 ($118) profit.
Closing (IRA): SPY December 16th 320 Short Put... for a 1.64 debit.
Comments: Filled this for 3.41 (See Post Below) as part of a multi-leg short put ladder. Out here at a smidge greater than 50% max. 3.41 - 1.64 = 1.77 ($177) profit.
Closed (Margin): QQQ December 16th 230 Short Put... for a 1.51 debit.
Comments: This isn't at 50% max, but I'll take 1.09 ($109) profit for one day's "work" any time. Filled for a 2.60 credit. (See Post Below). Out here for 1.51. 1.09/$109 profit.
