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Rolling: XBI June 17th 79 Call to 71... for a 1.72 credit.
Comments: Inverting here. Total credits collected of 7.33 on a 5-wide inversion (71C/76P). The best outcome for this would be a finish between 71 and 76, but the most I can hope to make on it would be the total credits collected of 7.33 minus the width of the inversion (5.00) or 2.33.
$APE and Your Fib Matters - Price at premium to sell *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.
Start thE 0% of the fib at the candle that has the big drop that is the first out of line of running sideways. Run your fib 100% to the bottom, price has retraced to an institutional premium in whic it should then Sell off. This is TEXTBOOK SMART MIONEY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Previous Listing Deleted (odd text got on the chart somehow)
Opening: BITO June 17th 11/18 Short Put Vertical... for a .48/contract credit.
Comments: High IV with 30-day at 71%.
Unfortunately, I don't get any relief on margin for this particularly underlying, so am buying a cheap long put to bring in buying power effect from 17.46 for the naked 18 to 6.54 for the spread. Paying .07 for the long to bring buying power effect in by >60%.
ROC 7.3% at max as a function of buying power effect; 3.7% at 50% max.
Opening: SMH June 17th 198/270 Short Strangle... for a 5.55 credit.
Comments: High IVR/high IV (80/46). Selling the 15 delta strikes on both sides. 5.55 credit on buying power effect of 23.58; 23.5% ROC as a function of buying power effect at max; 11.8% ROC at 50% max. As usual, will look to take profit at 50% max and/or manage sides on approaching worthless/side test.
Opening: XRT June 17th 59/82 Short Strangle... for a 2.00 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 91/52. Selling the 16 delta strikes on both sides. Will look to take profit at 50% max; manage sides on approaching worthless/side test. 2.00 credit on buying power effect of 7.10; 28.2% ROC as a function of buying power effect; 14.1% at 50% max.
Rolling (IRA): QQQ May 13th 325 Short Put to June 24th 321... for a 3.85 credit.
Comments: Total credits collected of 3.28 (See Post Below) plus the 3.85 here for a total of 7.13. Wasn't able to both improve the strike a ton here and receive a credit >1% of the strike price, but you do what you can do.
Opening: /ES June 3rd 2900 Short Put... for a 3.40 credit.
Comments: Back onto the roller coaster in the June 3rd expiry (29 days until expiry), selling the strike that is around 70% of where /ES is currently trading. The delta down here is so low that it doesn't make much sense to target a particular strike based on delta (e.g., the .01 delta strike).
As noted previously, this routes for 3.40, but max is only half of that or 1.70 ($170).
Opening: /ES June 3rd 2650 Short Put... for a 3.10 credit.
Comments: Running another of these. As pointed out previously, the options table shows this as worth 3.10, but your max is only half that or 1.55 ($155) on BPE of 19.88. 7.8% ROC at max; 3.9% at 50% max. A basic bet that we don't see 2650 in 35 days.