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The Week Ahead: TWTR, UAA, GPN, PFE Earnings; ARKK, XBI, XRTEarnings Announcements in Options Liquid Underlyings with >70 rank and >50% 30-Day Implied: TWTR (93 rank/90 30-day implied) (Thursday, before market open) UAA (80/68) (Friday, before market open) GPN (71/51) (Thursday, before market open) PFE (76/42) (Tuesday, before market open) Pictured here is a directionally neutral TWTR short strangle paying 1.34 on a buying power effect of 3.71 (on margin), 36.1% ROC at max; 18.1% at 50% max. It announces earnings on Thursday before market open, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's session if you want to take advantage of the ensuing volatility contraction post-announcement on Thursday. For those more of a defined risk bent, consider the February 18th 25/30/44/49 iron condor, paying 1.14 at the mid price as of Friday's close on buying power effect of 3.86, 29.5% ROC at max, 14.8% at 50% max with 2 x expected move break evens. UAA is probably small enough to short straddle/iron fly, with the February 18th 19.5 short straddle paying 2.42 on buying power of 3.93 (on margin), 61.6% ROC at max, 15.4% at 25% max. The risk one to make one iron fly would be a "stays within the expected move" sort of play with the February 18th 15.5/19.5/19.5/23.5, paying 2.03 on 1.97, 103% ROC at max; 25.8% ROC at 25% max. The GPN February 18th 130/160 short strangle was paying 2.97 on buying power of 14.97 as of Friday's close, 19.8% ROC at max, 9.9% at 50% max. The bid/ask is showing wide in after hours, and I don't particularly like the five wides where I want to pitch my tent. This is probably why I haven't bothered to play it before. Although PFE's 30-day is a bit <50%, I figured I'd price out a setup because of its high options liquidity. Unfortunately, it's not very compelling at the moment, with the 16 delta 48.5/58.5 in the February 18th contract paying a scant .89 on buying power of 6.12 as of Friday's close -- 14.5% ROC at max, 7.3% at 50% max. Exchange-Traded Funds With Ranks >50 and 30-Day IV >35%: ARKF (76/63) XBI (71/45) ARKK (70/67) ARKG (70/65) XRT (63/46) KWEB (63/54) SMH (60/41) GDX (50/45) Pick your Cathie Woods poison (ARKF, ARKK, ARKG), I guess. Otherwise, sell premium in XBI or (there's one I haven't seen in a while) ... XRT, although you're probably going to get more bang for your buck out of KWEB, with its higher 30-day. Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds, Ordered By Implied Volatility Rank: QQQ (55/29) IWM (54/30) EFA (43/19) SPY (41/22) DIA (40/21)
NYSE:TWTR
by NaughtyPines
Rolling: XLK February 18th Short Strangles to March 18th 160... short straddle. Comments: Locking in some realized gains by rolling the 151/160 and the 157C/158P inverted out to the March 18th 160 short straddle. I had to do this in separate rolls, receiving 7.19 in credits for the roll of the 151/160 and 3.67 for the roll of the slightly inverted 157C/158P. I've collected a grand total of 22.07 in credits (11.035/contract) relative to a current setup value of 11.75 per contract, so am still slightly underwater in the position. As usual, will continue to do defensive adjustments as necessary to keep from getting too directional.
AMEX:XLK
by NaughtyPines
4
Rolling: IWM February 25th 197/198 Short Strangle to March 18th... 199 short straddle. Comments: As with my February 18th IWM tight short strangle, rolling out my February 25th to the March 18th 199 short straddle for a 4.24 credit. Total credits collected of 12.80 relative to the March 18th 199 short straddle price of 14.46, so also still slightly underwater. I'll continue naturally continue to do defensive adjustments as necessary to keep these setups from getting too directional.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
4
Rolled (IRA): SPY March 18th 374 Short Put to June 345... for a 2.30 credit. Comments: As with the short puts I sold in IWM and QQQ in the sell-off, this one also is at greater than 50% max. Here, I rolled it out farther in time to start to fill out longer-dated expiries at intervals, again targeting the short put strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit, after which I'll roll the short put up at 50% max to the strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit, assuming the expiry is still longer than 45 days and that that strike is <16 delta. Naturally, June is quite long-dated (136 days), but the expectation is that it will reach 50% max at around half that period of time (assuming a bunch of things like IV, whether price moves significantly into the strike, etc.). In any event: Total credits collected of 3.75 (See Post Below) plus 2.30 here for a total of 6.05 relative to a price of 3.55 for the June 345, so I've realized gains of 2.50 ($250), give or take.
AMEX:SPYLong
by NaughtyPines
Rolled (IRA): QQQ March 18th 280 Short Put to April 14th 305... for a 2.40 credit. Comments: As with my IWM short put filled in the depths of the sell-off, there was far less extrinsic in the 280 than there was a few short days ago. Rolled out to April strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit, which is the 305, paying 3.19 or so. I collected 3.00 for the 280 (See Post Below) and 2.40 for the roll here, for a total of 5.40 relative to a current short put price for the April 305 of 3.20, so I've realized gains of 2.20 ($220) by rolling here. I could've naturally rolled up in the March expiry or waited for a weekly to roll out to (i.e., the March 25th, which doesn't exist yet), but opted for going longer dated, deeper out-of-the-money for the time being as I'm doing with my longer-dated SPY setup.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by NaughtyPines
Rolling: KWEB January 18th 38.42C/40.42P to February 18th ... 35.42C/39.42P short strangle for a 1.04 credit. Comments: Another inverted that I'm rolling out a tad early and on which I've collected a total of 5.25 in credit. (See Post Below, to which the 1.04 credit received here should be added). Like ARKK, it also experienced a distribution, which ended changing the strike prices. In any event, it's a 4.00-wide inversion on which I've collected 5.25, so I can still make money on it, but will probably scratch it out if I get an opportunity and re-up with an unbroken setup if the implied volatility remains attractive.
AMEX:KWEB
by NaughtyPines
Rolled: ARKK March 18th 103.22 Short Put to April 14th 103... for a .10 credit. Comments: Rolling this out on strength to lock in the gain experienced by the 103.22 (which it quickly gave up during the day), improve the strike slightly, and to keep some extrinsic in it. I'm still looking at the deep in-the-money short put as functionally long stock that I'm short strangling with the March 18th 59.22/81.22 to reduce cost basis. I've collected a total of 22.68 in credits, so my break even is 103 (the short put strike) minus 22.68 (total credits collected) or 80.32 relative to where the stock closed today at 69.03, so I still have some cost basis reduction work to to do.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (Margin): IWM February 18th 198/233 Short Strangle... for a 3.57 credit. Comments: I'm pretty much in everything at the top of the exchange-traded fund board and wanted to deploy a little more buying power before the February monthly shortens too much in duration, so selling premium in the broad market exchange-traded fund with the highest background implied. 3.57 on buying power effect of 28.05 (on margin); 12.7% ROC at max; 6.4% at 50% max. Will look to take profit at 50% max; manage sides on approaching worthless/side test.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
4