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#ES_F Tuesday 2.07.23 Prep Review for Monday 2.06.23: Sunday Globex opened up and held under our Key Support of 4143-37 giving us a break into our Daily Support area under 4123-19 but found short covering front running 4103-4099 area, we took 3 attempts at it and all failed to reach which was telling us no lower continuation yet. We stayed in a tighter range as we thought we might in this area since now we have Supply over 4143-37 and buyers are still under our 4123 - 4100 -4084 areas. After big moves we need to do some cleaning, this was a good range to do it at. Question is can we stay in this range and attempt another move higher or they will slowly be marking this down and trapping buyers on their way. Prep for Tuesday 2.07.23: Last night Globex Opened over our 4123-19 Support and since then been trading between that and Resistance. We have now accepted in this range under 4143-37 and unless we get back over it and hold there is a chance to visit lower areas. We are Under T2 range Today which signals weakness but for now inside Previous day range, we are looking to see if we will be able to hold within this range and just trade that or will we make a move out. We have our Key Resistance of continuation higher at 4143-37 as first step and 4168-62 as confirm for continuation but we now have Supply over that area so we will need to create some buying as shorts are slowing down unless we trap more here this week for another push. It could be a tricky day holding the range with a possible break lower later in the day once shorts see supply and longs are trapped so watch out for it being slow most of the day until later unless we get big volume at open and take our resistance. Getting under 4123-19 will be the first step which should have enough supply once it does to test 4103-4099 area where we see if we break it or not. Potential Targets today are 4103-4099 and 4084-77 those two will need to break to get anymore downside. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4214-4191 Key Intraday 4168-62 // 4143-37 Support: Key Daily 4100-4077 Key Intraday 4084-77 Current 4123-19 // 4103-4099 *** This Slow action and quick Reversals cleans out a lot of traders, its a clean up after a part from few weeks of run up and we are at an area where size will need to show us when we are ready to move. Expect Smaller trades unless we are breaking through levels and showing continuation.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Monday 2.05.23 Prep Friday 2.03.23 Overview: Coming into the day we had our Globex inventory around 4168-62 Support which broke overnight, 8:30 am data gave us a flush taking out lower stops and finding support at our Key Intraday Support 4143-37, RTH Open didn't waste much time and corrected the inventory back inside the value and up to Intraday Resistance at 4191-85 this is an area we marked off to watch night before and if patient it gave a very good short trade all the way back to Intraday support, as much as it looked that we could break and keep going we also thought this day we could spend in Balance within this 4215-4140 range so the none break wasn't as surprising just frustrating. Even with the strong selling and supply building up over us we didn't break 4143-37 on that move lower which tells us that maybe we aren't done up here just yet. Monday 2.06.23 Prep: Where are we? Currently in this bigger balance area of 4215-4100, we have supply over 4215 over 4190 and some over 4170. Friday Closed with inventory short right at Key Intraday Support, under T2 RTH range. As much as it looks like we are reversing we have to keep in mind if our business here is not done yet then we may stay around these areas some more building out structure for the next move. It is very possible to open Globex under Support and keep going or consolidate over it, break and keep going but we have to watch for this to happen first. For now looks like we have buyers under 4140 and 4120-4100, we are starting to see stronger selling from above 4190 but its not enough where they want to break it yet it seems so keep in mind until we see full breaks of Daily Support or Daily Resistance we can stay in this balance and possibly trade level to level especially if we start tightening up the range some. We could see more downside if we break 4143-37 but watch for buyers at lower support areas if we start holding and can't get under 4123-19 and especially tag or break 4103. For upside if we hold this 4143-37 can see a move back towards T2 low and maybe that 4168-62 Resistance but that would need to get taken out and get over 4191-85 to see more upside. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4215-4190 Key Intraday 4191-85 Current 4168-62 / T2 Low area Support: Key Daily 4103-4084 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-99 Current 4143-37 / Previous Day Low **** Not a lot of market moving data this week except Fed doing discussions and Friday data release which makes it more possible to stay in some range and build structure. We keep that in mind until we see otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Friday 2.03.23 Prep Review: Today we saw that our suspicions about possibly finding a place to tighten up a bit to get ready for next move might have been correct, still have to see what we do in Globex but so far the information we have is we have accepted in this 4220 - 4137 intraday range, we have supply over 4220 - 15, we have built a support last night Globex under 4061 - 62 and still have short holding us up under 4143 - 37. As long as we don't break down and fall apart or break out tonight this might be our range until we are ready for next move out or to drop the bid for lower distribution. Prep: As Mentioned above we are currently in 4020 - 4137 Intraday Range with 4191 - 62 being our Value. Until we set up for a move outside of this range we can probably expect to spend some time in or around it and should be able to trade level to level once it sets up for a move away from value or back to value. Our T2 Range is under us which should give us support but we might dip inside it, if we do start taking out taking out Key Support or Resistance areas that is where we need to watch for reversal or continuation for a bigger move out of range or back to the other side, as mentioned it might take time now until we are ready for the move and right now is the time of patience to let things properly set up and show the way... long to set up, moves quick and reverses quick which means need to be patient and ready. I think once we are ready we have that nice space blow us to drop our bid to, we have 4100 - 4080 as potential lower support when we do but until then we might take our time. Levels to Watch: Resistance : Key Daily 4214 - 4191 // Key Intraday 4220 - 4215 // Intraday 4191-85 Support : Key Daily 4123 - 4084 // Key Intraday 4143 - 37 // Intraday 4168-62
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Thursday 2.02.23 Prep Review For 2.01.23: Fun day with the Fed today, not sure I how missed so many signals today for a long trade and why I was so short biased coming into today after mentioning Friday that we had more in the tank the way we closed and from our pre Fed price action. If long at the break over 4084-77 was caught, it made a nice little run over our Daily Resistance area. Our signs today were that we flushed trapped supply Monday leaving short stops above 4103 then yesterday the dip was bought and we made a lower high getting in more shorts at the area, Globex opened below and we consolidated around 4084-77 all night. When RTH failed to continue higher we built up inventory and flushed it twice but each time we failed to tag our lower Support at 4061-56 that was a big red flag because to continue lower we needed to take out 4060 area and build structure under it to be within striking distance of T2 low but we didn't do that and when Fed data came out at 2pm and 2:30pm Periods we both dipped under breaking the support but quickly coming back out signaling no supply, once 84-77 was taken again strong we had shorts trapped under us and once we took the stops over 4090 and 4110 that covering provided the buying to get us higher. Question going forward is will we accept here for now and attempt to distribute lower or will we come back in and how long will this move hold before continuing or reversing? Overview For 2.02.23: We are currently over our Daily Resistance area of 4123-4084 over this intra day range top of 4143-37, over T2 range with position below us at 4084-77 area. Question going forward is are we ready to keep moving, reverse or is this a good area to tighten up the range a bit while we still have Support below us and Supply above us too keep us from running away too much? If they wanted to keep this in some balance to clean out more traders before we decide on direction then this would be a good spot to do it but at these areas anything can happen really so its best to watch level to level. Going into Globex for me this 4143-37 area is like out middle for tonight with our Resistance being 4168-62 and possible Support down at 4123-19. Until things are clear we watch for set ups around resistance and support and trade towards the middle unless there is a break and continuation or break/hold over to either side, if we are to keep ranges small that might be the case going into RTH tomorrow but all will depend on what we do tonight if we drop the bid at night and start taking out our lower Support areas then we need to watch out. Levels to Watch: Next Daily Resistance 4214-4191 Intraday Resistance 4168-62 // 4191-85 // 4220-14 Possible Daily Support? 4123-4103 ( Previous Resistance not really tested) Intraday Support 4123-19 // 4103-99 // 4084-77 If we happen to do reverse at night or some point and break those levels next daily Support is 4012-3990 ****** There are a lot of split views right now with people thinking we should reverse fall apart or keep going to 4300-4500 which might give us some indecision and smaller ranges with moves taking longer to clean people out unless our business is concluded today and shorts are covered to drop the bid lower or we get over 4168-62 and hold to continue higher AND IF we do get under 4143-37 tonight and just continue to drip lower don't look to buy at support but instead this might be a reversal back towards 4084-77 and under don't stand in the way if we can hold lower areas
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
1
Sunday Prep 8/14 - $GRWG Starting with the monthly chart here to show you just how major of a short trigger this has just hit. The bigger picture target would be the monthly 20sma if you were to want to swing it. But the r:r is terrible since you wouldn’t be wrong until it were to make new ATHs. So then how do you trade it? Thought you’d never ask! The first area I will watch would be a retrace back to the monthly pivot at 33.52 which would also be right around a 50% retrace of Friday’s action. I kind of think that level may be a bit too close and would rather see if we can push up into the quarterly pivot at 35.64 which is closer to the most recent breakdown level we had on the daily chart. Make plans for everything though, which means we need to consider that it could actually push up a lot further before finding resistance that is too thick. The 40-42 area is where I would get pretty involved and possibly be looking for entries that allow for the swing idea as well. I think you have much clearer risk using 44 as the over/under level at that point. Keep in mind, it’s highly unlikely to get a push up to those kinds of levels in a single day or even a few. That area would be something for possibly later this week or early next week. Remember, you have to manage risk and be able to acknowledge when the idea is wrong and not working. The plan isn’t to enter at 33.5s and add the whole way up to 42. That’s suicidal. I would much rather take my papercuts on the way up and be ready to attack fresh at each level.
NASDAQ:GRWGShort
by TrueTraderOfficial
Sunday Prep 8/14 - $EBAYCrazy strong day on Friday with superb volume behind the move. Would love to see a weak open and a retrace to some key levels for early scoops come Monday. Can clearly see the 72.47 monthly pivot right there and if you look at the intra day price action from Friday you can see that level held multiple times. If that level can’t hold, the 61.8% fib level is going to put us down there in that 70 pocket which I also like. One thing I like to point out is where this move stemmed from; the weekly 20sma.
NASDAQ:EBAYLong
by TrueTraderOfficial
Sunday Prep 8/14 - $NQ/$QQQ Tech actually seemed to lag last week in comparison. It had a strong Thursday and Friday, but earlier in the week you can see we came back into the 20d. We have a monthly pivot just ahead up at 15244, but after that, there’s really nothing till quite a bit higher. Obviously we will have some new weekly pivots starting tomorrow, but I hardly give those the same consideration as I do the higher time frame ones. With tech being less extended than the SPY, any dips back to the 20d early on in the week can be used for areas to look for longs on strong tech names. I wouldn’t really be concerned until we lose last week’s lows. If we were to lose last week’s lows, I would be very interested to see if we struggle to retest highs and instead start to show some more signs of weakness.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by TrueTraderOfficial
Sunday Prep 8/08 - $AMC Short Almost feel like there’s no way to talk about this stock without hurting somebody’s feelings. So I’m sure this is where the video version of this will get a bunch of thumbs down. But this is such a broken chart that any spike off the report should be looked at as a gift to hammer short. My first level of interest is close to 42 where you have the monthly pivot which is approaching that upper trend line. If they somehow manage to spike it further than that, 45.50 is the 50d and 45.87 is the quarterly pivot, and you can see recent highs from July in that area as well. I would be polishing Thor’s hammer at that point. But let’s be honest the thing most likely Tanks off the numbers at which point there would be spots where I would buy very emotional flushes. The first area would be around 25 due to the fact that it’s a psychological number and you have the monthly pivot at 26.21. If it were the gap down further than that 20 is the next level of Interest because it’s a psychological level as well and you have the quarterly pivot at 19.12. The other way I’ll look to play it if it gaps down big off the numbers is to short any significant pops and join the trend.
NYSE:AMCShort
by TrueTraderOfficial
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