Sunday Prep 7/25 - $TTD Like to see pullbacks hold some supportBig volume day with a nice big green candle. Technically it broke out over that 82 level, so now I would like to see pullbacks hold some support. You can see the dips on Friday held around 79.40s, which also is right at the 61.8% fib level. Thinking any early flush to that area on Monday can be watched to see if they support it. If they gap it up, you can always look to join trend, but keep in mind that if they gap the broader market up as well, I would be very hesitant to get long anything until we get a backfill of the gap and we see buyers show up.
TV chart link:
Prep
Sunday Prep 7/25 - $BTC Another week of sideways actionAnother week of sideways action, another week closer to creating the base needed for a healthy, substantial move higher or lower. You can see early last week we tested the lower end of the channel, and immediately found buyers down there. Interested to see how this eventually pans out. But so far, it’s digesting very nicely.
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Sunday Prep 7/25 - $NQ/$QQQ Overall MarketSo like the S&P, the Nasdaq pulled back as well. But unlike the S&P, the Nasdaq’s pullback was shallow. It just made it back to the 20d, and I really wanted to see it closer to the 50d. So again, I think that the higher we go without a pullback to deeper areas, the more likely I am to look for short setups. Keep in mind, if at any time this week we DO pullback to much better areas and start to find support (for NQ or the ES), then I will be willing to look for some nice long setups as well.
Notice, the Nasdaq HAS had plenty of months that lost the previous month’s lows. So there have definitely been times where the Nasdaq has had some decent resets.
Tradingview Chart link:
Tradingview Chart link:
Sunday Prep 7/25 - $SPY/$ESThe market gave the retrace back to the 50d like we were thinking it could. But the problem for me is that it didn’t spend any real time down there. Instead, it immediately bounced and we are already back at new ATHs. It really gives me concern about whether it can actually hold. Only time will tell, but moving forward, I will be pretty cautious with longs. As always, the higher it goes without any consolidation, the more I will lean towards looking for short setups. Starting to wonder if 4500 is in the books for this week at some point. Butttttttt………..remember, this is arguably the biggest week of earnings season, so if certain names miss on numbers and get smoked, so too might the market.
Interesting thing is that we haven’t lost the previous month’s lows since last September, almost a year ago. Obviously we will see signs of weakness well ahead of ever losing the previous month’s lows, but once we start to see signs of cracking, this would be something I look for to get confirmation that we may very well be starting to roll over. But please don’t misinterpret this as me being bearish. I’m merely doing the necessary prep work to always be ready for anything. Till then, laissez les bons temps rouler. To the moon!!!
TV Chart link:
TV Chart link:
USDCAD PrepWe can see that there already was a good jump up and that the trade is back at the wedge. What we now want to see is that the trade does a breakout out of the trend that is formed. We also have to look if there will be a double top pattern because in the trend we can see that there where always higher highs and higher lows. When we look at the MACD we can see that there is also no divergence happening. This is good because that means that there will not be a trend reversal. So that also indicates that it will go up more. The only thing that we need to keep an eye out for is that when the price goes back down after the fake-out that it is able to get back out of the channel.
What could also happen is that when it gets out of the trend that it does not fake-out of the wedge but that it breaks out of the wedge. So we have to keep an eye out for that one also.
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Important: This is just an idea that I have. I am not telling you to buy/sell anything. What you do with the information that I give you is totally up to you.