Silver and the Election Silver has historically thrived under Democratic presidents, and I think this will be no different this time around if (or when) Biden wins. SLV seemed to recover the last 2 days of this week on riding the trendline that's been dating back to March of this year.
I'm going to be watching 24.25 as resistance this week with possible upside of 25.50's in the short term run. I am long on SLV and hoping we can see similar levels we saw in 2012 - at the 35's.
President
USDMXN AMLO or Ressesion?Here is a scary thought for the average Mexican. With the leftist inclination of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), Mexico could near an inflation streak for the following months or years to come. Uncertainty has risen in Mexico about whether AMLO's leftist policies will mean the printing of money to pay for public services and goods or weather he will be reallocating resources from other government agencies. The action of relocation for the time being is what is likely to happen given the President's short time in office. Time will tell weather or not the policies of the Mexican President will include the printing of money to pay to improve the community, weather he'll borrow such money or only reallocate funds. On the other hand with the United Sates being in a correction we could begin to see the price of the dollar and peso stalemate for some time with what I believe to be slight upward if the actions taken by the President become inflatory.
USDIDR will definitely determined by 2019 next electionI'm betting on Rupiah strengthened against dollar if Mr. Prabowo being elected in next 2019 president election and predicting Rupiah will go straight above 15K-ish if Mr. Jokowi continue to the second period.
My ressistant and support is above.
Mr. Prabowo x Mr. Sandi = Military x Businessman = IDR will be strengthened to 12K-ish
Mr. Jokowi x Mr. Ma'aruf Amin = Businessman x Religious Leader = IDR will be weakened to 15K-ish
Tradingview,
Blockchaindedi
2:20 P.M - 1 September 2018, Indonesia.
Understanding the Euro at it's current state. Update*This is an updated chart, taking into consideration other factors which are currently unfolding on the EUR/USD. The 200-SMA line has come close to the price action, possibly signifying a bounce to higher prices. However, there is a strong trend line nearby, where many other buyers will also be waiting. This area of demand can help facilitate more downward price action in favor of sideways or more upward buying pressure. Currently, buyers and sellers must work together to trade the price to a more favorable area, either higher or lower, but definitely not sideways.
Ideally, sellers will be able to bring in enough selling pressure, to push the Euro into further demand which will be waiting below, and allow then for the buyers to try creating some upward movement. This movement can then be taken on at a later date, once the Euro is safely below the 200-SMA.
These current indications of competition between bulls and bears are easily related back to the French elections, which had seen volatility pick up in the indices worldwide, as the current stock indices gapping up have been correlated to the elections themselves taking place. Now that Macron has won, prices seem to be turning around at a 'peak.' This is similar to the election in the U.S.A., with Trump's victory leading to new highs, however this is only stock market euphoria within the psychology of investors. As easily as prices went up, just as easily will prices come down.
crude oil price have new opportunities in this year OPEC's historic agreement to reduce production of oil and new US president Donald Trump policies for the return of economic sanctions on Iran, and his quest to return the quantitative easing program, all these factors will support oil prices to rise.
If Trump winsIf trump wins I expect a market crash, around -8% from the current index price to summer 2015 lows, around 1920. To enter a short position though, I will wait for the MACD on weekly to send a sell signal, at which point the loss for the markets could extend further than 8%. I will make sure to keep an eye on 200DMA because a new president means that many long-term investors will be shifting their portfolio composition.
Oil Long: Finally ExhaustionAs I expected, but wrong in terms of timing, oil is seeing an exhaustion in its downwards movement. Yesterday was the DCL according to Time Cycles . Additionally the Stochastics RSI looks dangerously oversold, which leads me to believe that the reversal to the upside will be very rapid. I expect the first selling zone to be $47-46.40 (blue rectangle). From there we should continue downards, as the long term sentiment for oil is very bearish. The MACD is reversing as well , but I expect it to follow a similar pattern as it did 2015-11-16 to 2016-01-18. Finally very crucial to how rapidly Oil will rebound to the first selling zone is:
Wether Clinton or Trump will be elected. As wikileaks proved, Clinton has good relations with the Saudi, or at least she accepts their money in exchange for favours and thus a Clinton President will help oil rebound.
API and EIA data
NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:CL2!
How to Play The SPY if Trump or Hillary Wins the ElectionThe plan to play the SPY is to buy this Wave 4 dip in the 173-170 range. I do not want to be in this trade if we start breaking the 165 level so I have set my stop below that.
I think nearing the presidential elections takes us lower and markets get real choppy during this time so my entry will be planned and timed very well during this time.
Once a president is elected it is going to be a good day in America and the people staying out of the market because of its pre-election volatility and bearishness with begin to put money back into the market hitting our target.