Get started

Presidential

SPX & Bitcoin Correlation & US presidential election #Spx 1D chart; Let me first talk about the importance of the S&P 500 chart; They are positively correlated (i.e. they move together): *#Nasdaq100 *#Oil *#Bitcoin (sometimes) Now, what I want to draw your attention to is that just before the presidential elections, in September and October, there was always a decline. After the elections, there has been a continuous upward trend in the first 100 days. Not counting the 2008 world economic crisis, this has never changed in the last 3 elections. Even after the 2008 crisis, after falling for a while, it started to rise immediately afterwards. The data we are evaluating here is the first 100 days. In September 2024, I indicated the decline with an orange circle With a decline in October, a long-term uptrend may begin. If Bitcoin also shows a correlation here, which is my expectation as in the #Btc chart I drew earlier, we will start a permanent uptrend after suffering for another 1 month. SP500 end of first 100 days data after the US Presidential election: Post 2020 Election (Joe Biden): +17% Post 2016 Election (Donald Trump): +10% After 2012 Election (Barack Obama - Second Term): +10% After 2008 Election (Barack Obama - First Term): -19%
CBOE:SPXLong
by ugurtash
POTUS Election ChartThe point? Markets tend to chop around before Presidential Elections. George Bush Senior is probably the best performing Presidential stock market to not get re-elected. Clinton likely had the best performing stock market thanks to the internet, unbridled leverage in real estate due to tax-free capital gains of $500,000 every 2 years for couples in their principal residences. George Bush Jr had the worst performing stock market over 8 years with almost a zero return. Obama's term picked up the mess from the Clinton's leveraging the system and Bush deleveraging the system. Everyone blames everyone but not many really understand what happened. No one wants to believe the facts and points to facts that don't matter. What matters is regulatory policy and tax law. It wasn't "greedy people abusing the system", it was a "poorly leveraged system". What do we want next? What will we get next? IF history is any guide, we are in the equivalent of the 1980's now with a decent comparison to the time period from 1984-1987 at the moment after coming out of a 16 year-sideways grind (inflation adjusted). We have technology still taking off in the form of EV's, 5G, AI, and all sorts of infrastructure spending ahead, hopefully mass transit, high speed rail and hyper-loops (underground boring of tunnels). I'd suggest that Trump is doing his best at trying to push forth what Reagan's economic plans were: strong defense, deficit spend, tax rate cuts, stimulate investment, bring capital home, while using force all over the world (Panama, Grenada, Libya, Nicaragua, etc.). Well - the point I want to make here is that the primaries are just about a year away and there will be mudslinging and bashing going on for the better part of the next year and that's when stock markets rock back and forth. Let's stay tuned with what's going on so we don't go too crazy: 1. Government shut-down shot down the momentum in the economic growth prospects at year end 2018. 2. Boeing 737 Max8 instills fear in passengers and the most efficient airplane ever built is grounded, stunting spending, jobs, profits, investment and casted doubt on a major institution and the ability of the Gov't to oversee safe airplanes. 3. Massive growth in Electric Vehicles is causing a steady decline in demand for gas & diesel vehicles with huge repercussions long term for the whole industry and related industries. 4. Upheaval in trade talks in the attempt to level out the playing field causing a massive rift in communications between countries. 5. Tensions from nuclear development, threats to world peace from certain dictators shooting off rockets last year created worldwide concern about the safety of the all of us. 6. Climate change worries are escalating as storms, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, cyclones, and earthquakes are shaking everyone to their core and fearing for the future of our population. 7. Mass migration from Syria to Europe and South America/Central America to the USA is putting severe pressure on countries' ability to handle the influx and care for, feed and place everyone in homes and jobs. 8. Mass frustration over deficit spending in almost every country is forcing Central Banks to keep rates near zero to stimulate demand and has allowed huge deficits to accumulate that are virtually impossible to pay off, but can be carried ONLY at low rates. I'm sure there are plenty more points to make, but I'm going to stop here and add more later. I look forward to your comments, quips and questions. All the best, Tim West May 31, 2019. 1:35PM EST
TVC:DJI
by timwest
6
Nasdaq: Trump brings the index downAmerican are still ongoing presidential, but judging from those that are temporary results Trump appears to be in the lead. The US stock markets price the news with breakout of important levels of short-term support. Analyzing the NASDAQ, we can witness the breaking of the support area in 4680-4700, an important area for the mid-term trading and the maximum year 2015. The price also goes to cut the moving average 100 periods, providing a good indication of bearish strength. If the price action were to continue as we have seen so far, the chances of seeing new descents should be to consolidate, and the 4,700 area would represent an excellent opportunity for the input of new sellers.
FX:NAS100
by LudovicoReale
AUD/USD: key area at 0.7700 before US presidentialThe AUD/USD shows clearly what are the key areas to be monitored. In previous octaves we saw resistance at 0.7700 always reject prices force. Despite all ,the market continues to be purchased every time prices from attempting a new descent, going to bounce on the long-term dynamic support. It is important to watch what will happen with the US elections, as a strong depreciation of the US dollar could lead the Australian dollar to make the breakout of 0.7700. The exponential moving average at 100 periods provides additional detail the importance of this price zone. Should the price go below 0,75.500 / 0,75,00, we would have high possibility of strong bearish movements.
by LudovicoReale
Hillary Clinton Presidential Race bet on Game TheoryAccording to game theory the following is the only option available to Hillary Clinton should she still wish to pursue White House bid. Currently as it stands Trump is projected to win. Clinton has all but one option: Step aside as VEEP and let Tim Kaine run as the president on a united front message. You welcome Hilary, that is your only option short of Donald Trump falling into a volcano. Market will go sideways, Trump will be great for stocks, bad for bonds. Looking for more game theory? PM me. -- never stop learning --
SP:SPX
by Marek99
6