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Presidentialelection

Presidential cycle. Will the crossing of RUT and SPX be repeatedDuring the Presidential Cycle is possible to verify that both indexes make peaks and troughs by the same time with similar moves. By early 2016, the indexes followed the same movement by roughly three months, after that SP500 and Russell2000 made a new high just before the elections. The prices continues to rise until the pandemic. By early March 2020, SPX crosses above RTU and it was above until a little before Biden election, thereafter RUT crossed again making a new high two months later SP500 also made a new high. By early January 2024, SPX crossed definitely RUT with SPX already making a new high. So following the history after the elections is time to RUT to cross above the SPX line as well as to reach another higher high(??)
TVC:RUT
by AFCapital21
Election Year Cycle & Stock Market Returns - VisualisedIn this chart, we're analysing the open value of the week the US election took place and comparing it to the open of the following election, showing the gain (or loss) in value between each election cycle. Historically we can see prices in the Dow Jones Industrials Index tend to appreciate the week the election is held. Only twice has the return between the cycles produced a negative return. Buying stocks on election day, 8 out of 10 times has yielded a profitable return between the election cycles. 80% of the time in the past 40 years returning a profit, has so far been a good strategy to take. The typical cycle starts with the election results, an immediate positive movement and continued growth before finishing positive. The Outliers 2000-2004 was the only year which ended negative without prices going higher than the election day. 2004-2008 increased 41.84% before ending negative. 2008-2012 began the cycle falling 30.62% before finishing positive. The names of presidents who won their respective elections is to visualise who had the presidential term during that specific cycle.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Mt.BFX
US Presidential Election Forex Analysis5th November US Presidential Election DXY: Could retest 103.50 area, and rebound up to cover gap and up to 104.30 (if price breaks 103.40 could trade down to 102.90) NZDUSD: Sell 0.6040 SL 20 TP 80 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6635 SL 20 TP 60 (trend following) Counter trend opp: Buy 0.6670 SL 30 TP 90 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2980 SL 40 TP 130 EURUSD: Buy 1.0930 SL 30 TP 70 USDJPY: Ranging between 151.70 and 153.40, looking for breakout potential following major news USDCHF: Buy 0.8650 SL 20 TP 55 USDCAD: Sell 1.3870 SL 20 TP 50 Gold: Needs to break 2730 to trade down to 2710 and then possible rebound
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
M6E: Staking an Opinion on the US ElectionCME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! ) All eyes are on the November 5th U.S. presidential election. The stake can’t be higher. A bad outcome could lead to reshaping the balance of world power, an escalation of the geopolitical crises underway, and disrupting the social stability in the U.S. and beyond. Here on TradingView, I want to address this question: How would the U.S. election impact financial investment? A Lookback from the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election On August 17, 2022, I published “Market Impacts of the US Mid-term Elections, which broke down the possible election outcomes into two categories: • “One-Party Rule”, where Democrats controlled the White House and the Congress • “Divided Government”, where Republicans retook either the House or the Senate and created effective challenges to the Administration’s political agenda I analyzed how each asset class would fare under these two scenarios. My conclusion was that the four mega spending bills passed in the first two years would pump $4 trillion in the U.S. economy and would pop up the stock market. At the time of that story, the S&P 500 stood at 4,264. Last Friday, it settled at 5,808, up 36%. Prediction Markets, Opinion Polls and the DJT Stock With the upcoming election, my main question can be broken down into two: • What asset class would fare well if Trump wins? • Would there be any investment instrument help us express our market view? What if Harris win? The election is a binary option with only two outcomes. We could combine them in one question with Yes or No answer. A No for Trump is equivalent to a Yes to Harris. To start our analysis, we need to assess the winning odds of each candidate. Many data sources exist to help. Each tells a part of the story, but all have their own flaws. In my opinion, the prediction markets are preferrable to opinion polls. Millions of people wager on the election outcome on Polymarket, with the money pool amounting to $2.5 billion. This is a real deal as people put money where their mouth is. Currently, Polymarket predicts that Trump has 65.1% odds of winning the election, where Harris has a 34.9% chance. How does it work? • If you believe in Trump, you could put down 65 cents for a recreational bet to vote Yes. When he wins, you get $1 back, and if he loses, you lose the bet. • If you are in favor of Harris, you could put down 35 cents to vote No for Trump. You also get $1 back if Harris wins and will say goodbye to 35 cents if she loses. Many readers are not comfortable with an “All or Nothing” trade and may not be allowed to participate in a betting market. Fortunately, there are investment-graded alternatives. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp ( NASDAQ:DJT ) is a publicly traded company listed on the Nasdaq market. Its main owner is Donald J. Trump with an 84% stake, and its main asset is TrueSocial. My hypothesis: DJT stock price shall move up (down) along with the rise (fall) of Trump’s winning odds. With so many unprecedented events happening, we should be able to validate this assumption easily. Let’s look back in the campaign timeline in the past four months, and see how Polymarket and DJT stock price responded to these events: (1) On June 27th, the first presidential debate took place. It’s generally viewed that the current President performed poorly against his opponent. My rating: Positive on Trump • Polymarket: Trump’s odds increase from 59.5% to 67.0% (+7.5%) • DJT: Stock price moved from $25 to $39 (+56%) (2) On July 13th, an attempted assassination on Donald Trump wounded him and killed a bystander in Pennsylvania. Rating: Strong Positive • Polymarket from 59% to 71% (+12%) and DJT from $29 to $41(+41%) (3) On July 24th, President Biden withdrew his presidential candidacy. On August 3rd, Kamala Harris became the Democrats nominee after a roll call to party delegates secured a majority vote. Rating: Negative on Trump • Polymarket from 62% to 45% (-17%) and DJT from $41 to $21 (-49%) (4) On September 10th, the second presidential debate with Trump and Harris took place. Many viewed that Harris performed better than expected. Rating: Negative on Trump • Polymarket from 52% to 49% (-3%) and DJT from $18 to $12 (-33%) (5) On October 20th, Trump worked a shift in a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, making fries and handing out food to mobile customers. Rating: Very Positive • Polymarket from 55% to 65% (+10%) and DJT from $20 to $39 (+95%) The above analysis shows that DJT is positively correlated to the Polymarket winning odds. Therefore, we could use DJT as a stock market proxy for Trump’s chance of winning the presidential election on November 5th. For anyone owning a stock brokerage account, he could give his approval to Trump by buying DJT. Harris became presidential nominee in less than 3 months, and there isn’t a stock symbol closely linked to her. Therefore, for anyone leaning towards her, he could deliver a disapproval to Trump by shorting DJT. DJT Correlation with Other Financial Instruments Keep in mind that DJT is a single stock with very volatile prices. Its low market valuation opens DJT vulnerable to stock manipulation. A prudent investor may want to consider other assets that move in line with DJT but are less volatile. I looked into a number of financial instruments. Here is what I founded: US stock market indexes Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT Gold and Bitcoin have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT US Dollar Index is positively correlated with the stock prices of DJT, while the Euro-USD Exchange Rate is negatively correlated with the stock prices of DJT Let’s focus on the ones with statistically significant correlations. The dollar index moved in line with Trump’s winning odds. Investors are not necessarily in favor of a Trump win. In my opinion, his America-First policy would help uphold the value of the dollar. Meanwhile, an untested Harris administration means more uncertainties to dollar investors. The Euro-USD is negatively correlated with DJT because of the quoting convention in the FX market. Quoting as number of dollars per euro, dollar appreciation means that each unit of euro could buy fewer dollars, resulting in the declining exchange rate quotation. The opposite also holds true. Trade Setup with the Micro Euro-USD Futures Like trading DJT, a trader could express his political opinions in this election using CME Micro Euro-USD futures ($M6E). M6E contract has a notional value of 12,500 euros. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $280. The December contract (M6EZ4) was settled at $1.0817 last Friday. At the current price, each contract is valued at $13,521.25. The M6E contract is very liquid, with a daily trade volume of 18,096 and an Open Interest of 14,375. Along the line with our preceding discussion, possible trade setup are as follows: • A Trump victory could strengthen the dollar, leading to a decline in M6E quotation. Therefore, a vote for Trump could equal to a short position in Micro Euro-USD futures. • A Harris victory could weaken the dollar, leading to an increase in M6E quotation. A vote for Harris is a No to Trump, which could equal to a long position in M6E. I do not attempt to sway anyone’s vote to one direction or the other. Both views could find application using M6E. Unlike Polymarket, trading futures is not an All-or-Nothing bet. If you are wrong, you may incur losses in the trade, but not necessarily lose everything. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
$TOTAL Crypto Market Cap Trying to Breakout - Retail IS ComingOnly thing we’re waiting for is the Crypto Total Market Cap to breakout. Golden Cross on the horizon. That’s why we’ve seen lack of volume in breakouts for CRYPTOCAP:BTC and Alts. Means money is just switching from coin to coin, primarily from Tether in circulation, hence why CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D is going down. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL breakout will be fueled by retail, which should slowly come in the next couple weeks leading into another round of rate cuts on the 14th, followed by Donald J. Trump being declared the President of the United States the very next day 🇺🇸❤️ YOU'RE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH 🎯
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by jonnieking
Elon Musk’s $75 Mln Donation to Trump & the Impact on DogecoinCould CRYPTOCAP:DOGE Hit $1? In a striking move, Elon Musk, one of the most influential figures in both tech and crypto, has once again made headlines—this time for his massive $75 million donation to support Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. As Musk campaigns for Trump, Dogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ), the meme cryptocurrency Musk has championed, has seen a surge in price. Could this lead CRYPTOCAP:DOGE to hit $1? Elon Musk’s Role in Trump’s Campaign Musk’s $75 million donation to the America PAC, a pro-Republican group supporting Donald Trump, has positioned him as one of Trump’s top donors. This America PAC, which Musk created, champions core values such as secure borders, sensible spending, and free speech—principles that align with Trump’s policy objectives. Musk's political move also includes a series of campaign talks in Pennsylvania, one of the key battleground states in U.S. presidential elections. His influence in boosting Trump’s odds in Pennsylvania has already become apparent, with data revealing that Trump is 14% ahead of Kamala Harris in the state. Beyond the donation, speculation has risen about Musk’s role in the proposed "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE), a political initiative tied to Trump’s vision for improving government operations. This has led to renewed optimism for Dogecoin, with traders and investors anticipating a strong correlation between Musk’s political influence and CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ’s price trajectory. DOGE Price Gains Amid Political Buzz As of the time of writing, Dogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ) is trading at $0.1247, up nearly 7% in the last 24 hours. This surge comes despite broader selloffs in the crypto market, showing Dogecoin’s resilience. Volume has also spiked by over 50%, indicating renewed interest and momentum for the meme coin. Investors have flocked to CRYPTOCAP:DOGE , speculating that Musk’s close ties to the Trump campaign and potential government positions could help propel the coin higher. Rumors of Dogecoin reaching $1 have started circulating again as Musk’s political moves boost both optimism and price action. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, Dogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ) is currently riding a wave of bullish momentum. The coin is trading above key moving averages, such as the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which is a strong bullish indicator. CRYPTOCAP:DOGE has been in a prolonged falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 67, just below the overbought territory. This indicates that while CRYPTOCAP:DOGE still has room to grow, traders should be cautious of a potential short-term correction if the RSI crosses into the overbought range. Immediate resistance is set at the $0.15 pivot point. If CRYPTOCAP:DOGE breaks through this level, it could move into a more aggressive bullish phase, potentially pushing toward the much-anticipated $1 mark. However, failure to break this resistance could see the coin retrace to its support level around $0.12. Below this, CRYPTOCAP:DOGE could revisit its one-month low of $0.10. Is CRYPTOCAP:DOGE Primed for Growth? Dogecoin’s fundamental outlook has always been heavily tied to Elon Musk’s influence, and this latest move adds more fuel to the fire. Musk’s advocacy for the cryptocurrency and his high-profile donation to Trump’s campaign have bolstered confidence in the coin. Musk’s public appearances and ongoing support for Dogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ) have previously sparked massive price surges, as seen when CRYPTOCAP:DOGE rallied to $0.74 in 2021. With the upcoming U.S. election and Musk’s increased visibility, the possibility of a similar rally is not out of the question. Additionally, Musk’s involvement in the proposed "Department of Government Efficiency" ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ) under a Trump administration could provide CRYPTOCAP:DOGE with newfound utility, further elevating its value. This initiative could serve as a bridge between traditional governance and decentralized financial solutions, potentially opening doors for CRYPTOCAP:DOGE in the policy arena. What’s Next for Dogecoin? As the U.S. presidential election draws closer, CRYPTOCAP:DOGE may continue to see heightened volatility, driven largely by political developments and Musk’s involvement. If the momentum continues and Dogecoin breaks through key resistance levels, the $1 milestone could become a reality. For now, the immediate focus is on whether CRYPTOCAP:DOGE can maintain its bullish momentum as it approaches the $0.15 resistance. Investors are keeping a close eye on both the crypto market and the broader political landscape, which will likely have a profound impact on the meme coin’s future. Conclusion Elon Musk’s $75 million donation to Trump has not only amplified the political discourse but also reignited excitement for Dogecoin ( CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ). While CRYPTOCAP:DOGE has already seen impressive gains, much hinges on the upcoming election and whether Musk’s influence can continue driving the meme coin higher. Both technically and fundamentally, CRYPTOCAP:DOGE is positioned for potential growth, but as with any asset, caution and careful monitoring of market conditions are key. Could CRYPTOCAP:DOGE hit $1? Only time will tell, but with Musk’s backing, nothing seems impossible.
Long
by DEXWireNews
Trump Media & Technology Group Stock Surges as Musk Backs TrumpShares of Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:DJT ) surged by over 15% on Monday, buoyed by renewed political momentum after former President Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where he appeared alongside Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The event, held just a day prior, saw Musk publicly endorse Trump for president, a move that has energized Trump’s supporters and investors alike. Musk’s endorsement, along with the rally’s broader media coverage, has acted as a significant catalyst for NASDAQ:DJT stock, which has seen a strong uptick in trading volume and investor interest. Musk-Backed Momentum and Media Buzz The rally in Butler marked a high-profile return for Trump to the site of a previous assassination attempt in July, with Musk's appearance further amplifying the media attention. In his 90-minute speech, Trump spoke at length about his vision for the country, while Musk labeled himself “Dark MAGA” and expressed strong support for Trump’s re-election, stating, “President Trump must win to preserve the Constitution.” This public backing by one of the world's most influential tech entrepreneurs has provided a jolt to NASDAQ:DJT , which had previously been on a steady decline. Adding to this momentum is the recent U.S. Supreme Court dismissal of a lawsuit filed by Musk’s X Corp. The lawsuit alleged that Special Counsel Jack Smith violated the First Amendment in obtaining a search warrant for Trump's communications on Twitter. The dismissal was seen as a victory for both Trump Media and Musk, helping to restore some investor confidence. However, challenges remain. Trump Media recently revealed in regulatory filings that its Chief Operating Officer, Andrew Northwall, resigned in late September, marking yet another leadership shake-up within the company. Additionally, the firm is set to release nearly 800,000 shares of its stock to an early investor, per a Delaware judge’s ruling. Despite these internal challenges, the company’s chief product, Truth Social, continues to depend heavily on Trump’s popularity and his continued presence on the platform. Technical Outlook Technically, NASDAQ:DJT appears to be in the early stages of a potential bullish rebound. The stock is currently up 10.67% as of this writing, capitalizing on the rally’s momentum and Musk’s endorsement. However, NASDAQ:DJT has been in a falling trend pattern since its all-time high (ATH) back in March 2024, signaling a long-term downward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 54.54, indicating that the stock is not yet overbought and has room to grow further. This gives traders optimism that the stock could continue its upward trajectory. A key concern, however, is that NASDAQ:DJT is still trading below critical moving averages (MAs), particularly the 50-day and 200-day MAs. These levels represent important resistance points that NASDAQ:DJT will need to break through to confirm a sustained bullish reversal. Price targets suggest that the next major pivot for the stock is set at $33, aligning with the 200-day MA. Should NASDAQ:DJT continue to capitalize on its recent gains, breaking through this level would be a strong indicator of further upward movement. However, until the stock moves above these key averages, caution is warranted as NASDAQ:DJT remains vulnerable to retracement. Outlook: Political Tailwinds Could Drive Future Gains The rally in Butler, Musk’s endorsement, and recent legal victories have given NASDAQ:DJT a fresh boost of momentum, but the stock still has significant hurdles to overcome. Investors are eyeing the upcoming 2024 election cycle as a potential catalyst for further gains, particularly if Trump’s popularity continues to rise. While the stock is still trading below its key moving averages, the formation of a bullish pattern and steady RSI suggest that there may be room for further upside. As NASDAQ:DJT recovers from its post-March lows, long-term investors and traders will be watching closely to see if the stock can break through the $33 resistance level, which could signal a full-blown reversal of its current trend. For now, NASDAQ:DJT is riding a wave of political and media momentum, and the road ahead is one of cautious optimism. Investors would do well to keep an eye on both Trump’s political fortunes and the company’s internal management developments as key factors that will influence the stock’s trajectory.
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by DEXWireNews
GOLD --- When Breakout? $2700 Target remains in place. The war against sound money... keeping a "lid" on the price of the worlds biggest asset and truly the only real collateral in the world. Is being slowly lost. We have a continuation head and shoulders that many people are watching. But something to note Is that the previous times #Gold has traded above 2 thousand dollars The smackdown has been quick and violent. If you noice in the past few weeks, the compression of price , and the consecutive number of weekly closes above 2k. Is the most it has ever been. Are the Bankers ready to let it run... since they seem to be pumping up all assets prices for the 2024 election. I think the ramp up to 2.7k could be quite violent... do we get there by summer?
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BallaJi
DIS Testing Fundamental SupportWhen Americans feel depressed or unhappy about life, they tend to spend more money on fun things--something to consider during a presidential election year. For now, NYSE:DIS is looking fine for its earnings report next week. It was over-speculated, so adjusting back down closer to fundamental support is normal. The gap up in February was on way better than expected earnings, so that level should hold up well. However, HFTs and MEME groups have been going gaga over earnings and other news. If HFTs or MEMEs drive it down, it will move right back up due to Dark Pool activity first, and then pro trader activity.
NYSE:DIS
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Five theories of the market's future. All bad short-termI have come up with a few theories in trying to determine where we are and what could happen next. I believe we are in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand Supercycle wave 5 (began March 2009), Supercycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Cycle wave A (January 4), Primary wave 1 (January 4), Intermediate wave 5 (began June 2, 2022), Minor wave 2 (began June 17 at 1030 eastern time). This is the primary assumption as to where we are (and is referenced as 152A152 based on the wave), but I will explore what should occur next if this is true along with timelines. Theory #2 would have us in a wave ending in 152A52. Theory #3 would put us in a wave ending in 152A4A where Primary 3 just ended at 1030 on June 17 and therefore we will move up for a month or so. Theory #4 is that I am very off base in my wave markings while theory #5 would be that Elliott Wave Theory is only good for Monday morning quarterbacking and the Jacksonville Jaguars will win more times than Elliott Wave will. The U.S. economy is on the brink of major trouble and no one appears to be willing to do anything to stop it so theory #1 is the most plausible at this time. Recession is here and will linger for many quarters. The beginning of Theory #1 must consider what could happen with Supercycle wave 2 (referenced as 152). Supercycle wave 1 lasted 3252 trading days and ran from March 2009 until January 2022. The index began at 666.79 and topped at 4818.62 for a total move of 4151.83 and rise over run of 1.277 points per day (move/trading days). Based on similar waves ending in 52, the models agree the most that this downward cycle could last 813 trading days which would put the end of this overall downward trend in March 2025. Even if this is true we would move upward again and possibly near all-time highs before falling down. The three closest end points would have this Supercycle ending after 397 trading days (August 4, 2023), 469 (November 15, 2023) and 542 (February 28, 2024). The median movement of waves ending in 52 will move 44.44% of the predecessor wave. This would put the median length at 1445 trading days (August 2027). While this does not bode well, the length could be much shorter as market and wave intensity continue to get more drastic possibly a byproduct of computer trading, technology, market participation, or other factors. Recent waves ending in 52 have seen wave 1 be 2-4 times greater than wave 2 in length. 813 days would be if wave 1 were 4x greater. More specifically, waves ending in 152 tend to last 30-100% of the length of wave 1 with a median length at 50%. The shortest possible lengths are the aforementioned 469 and 813 trading days. Determining the length of Supercycle wave 2 is only half the battle. Waves ending in 52 tend to retrace or move 32-75% of their wave 1’s movement with a median at 50.17%. This means wave 2 could find its bottom in a range 1344.36-3116.36 below the index’s all-time highs. This would place the bottom between 1702.26-3474.26 with the median bottom at 2401.12. Waves ending in 152 slightly widen the retracement to 25.37-75.67% of the prior wave with a median at 45.71%. This could place the highest bottom at 3765.30 which we have already dropped below. We can provide early estimates of Cycle wave A and Primary wave 1 inside of Theory #1, however, our next focus is on determining the end of Minor wave 2 inside of Intermediate wave 5. The ratios and percentages from the prior two paragraphs are still valid as this wave 152A152 ends in 152 and 52. Minor wave 1 lasted 11 days, dropped 540.64 points with a rise over run of 45.053. The length could be between 3-11 days. The models have the strongest agreement on 3 and 6 days long. Day 1 begins Tuesday June 21. June 23rd is 3 days with 6 occurring on June 28. A move between 25-75% of wave 1 could see a quick gain for the index of 137.16-409.10. This could place the top between 3774.03-4045.97 with a median at 3883.99. If theory #1 proves true, we will likely move quickly over the next week with a top less than 4045.97. This would still provide quick and large gains. Theory #1 is most likely wrong or off by a wave if we drop below 3636.87 before moving above 3770. This theory is the most logical at the moment but I will publish my other theories over the coming days. Once a theory works, we will move forward with it and continue to provide updates going forward.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
S&P Analysis Week of 11/21/2020: Thanksgiving WeekHow will the shortened trading week affect the markets? It's Thanksgiving week in the U.S. and that means markets will be closed on Thursday, a shortened trading session on Wednesday and usually a light volume day on Friday. The meat of the trading week will most likely come on Monday & Tuesday. Anything can happen though so just be ready for any volatility this week. Last week did not have much action (a lot of sideways movement) so there wasn't much of trading for me. Price did, however, form a triangle wedge pattern. These are unpredictable in my opinion so it is better to wait for price to breakout or breakdown (with retest confirmation). I've marked the different trade setups I will be looking for going into the trading week. REMEMBER TO NEVER PLAY THE BREAKOUTS. Wait for the confirmation. "When it feels really right it's probably wrong and when it feels very wrong it's probably right." Good luck, be careful and don't forget to hit the like button. Background: I try to keep my charts as simple as possible with focus on the major resistance and support lines which has served me well. I don't not use any indicators (moving average, volume, oscillators, etc.) or complicated methodologies (i.e. Elliot Wave Theory) which can be difficult to predict price and provides false indicators.
CME_MINI:MESZ2020
by XYZ-Trader-
1
S&P Analysis Week of 11/08/2020: Post Election MadnessWho is the newly elected President of the United States? How does that impact the markets? As of this posting, we don't know who the elected U.S. President is. Even if a winner is declared, it is most likely going to be contested. This week there are many variables a. One important variable is the consolidation that price is making in a triangle wedge. We are currently at the top portion of the triangle wedge so price is in a critical spot. If price breaks out, we could easily get to and exceed all time highs. If price is rejected then you will see price pay a visit to the last broken resistance area area. This breakout area was heavy resistance and was never retested. Price WILL come back to this point at some time...when is anyone's guess. Price can take days, weeks, months or years to retest that area. My guess is that the retest will be sooner than later. I indicated three setups: Trade Setup 1 (long): The easiest would be a break above the triangle wedge because it's cleaner and easier to play. Trade Setup 2 (short): A rejection of the top of the triangle wedge. Trade Setup 3a (long): A bounce off of the broken resistance. This would satisfy the retest. However, if it does bounce this is not a preferred trade for me because of the overhead resistance. Price would have a lot of work to do to breakout above this area. Trade Setup 3b (short): This is a continuation of trade setup 2. If the breakout area fails, then price will continue most likely to the bottom of the consolidation triangle wedge. Note: The consolidation between the triangle wedge is energy and a lot is building up. Once the energy is released either in the northern or southern direction, there will be a big move. This is just for awareness in case that even happens during this week. Good luck and be careful. Remember: When it feels really right, it's probably wrong. And when it feels really wrong, it's probably right. Don't forget to support my analysis by hitting the like button
CME_MINI:MESZ2020
by XYZ-Trader-
10
US Presidential Election EUR/USD AnalisysThis is a significant event that could determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assess the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. We don't expect a break of actual support and resistance levels until the end of the votes counting. On Tuesday, as one of the candidates gains advantage we might start seeing a breakout of actual range. A win for Trump would represent a strengthening of the USD while a win for Biden would represent a Dollar weakening.
by the5erstrading
5
GBPAUD is about to DROPGA has been ranging back and fourth between 1.85000 and 1.82000 and I believe price is about to make its way back to 1.82000 , if so price will create a double bottom and move up back towards 1.85000. Price could also move down from where it is now 1.83000 to 1.82000, and continue falling. Price reached its resistance at 1.84940, fell, and now is about to test the green zone below. A big move down CAN happen, especially because of upcoming news this week for GBP and also AUD . I gave three possible scenarios, let me know what you guys think!
Short
by lobfxempire
GU Analysis *EXPLOSIVE WEEK AHEAD*Price has been ranging between 1.31000-1.27000 since the beginning of September, price could be headed towards 1.27000 in the next few days. There is a lot of important news this upcoming week for both GBP and USD, and most importantly the US election is in 2 DAYS . I charted the FIB on the daily timeframe, and what I think will happen is the market will open up and head down to the 0% line on the fib before a long opportunity presents itself. ALSO GBP could take a toll for the next month being that there is a nationwide shutdown starting NOVEMBER 5th until DECEMBER 2nd because of COVID 19 . There should be an explosive week this week for GU ! Definitely would keep an eye on the news this week if you are trading GU this week.
by lobfxempire
DXYHello friends These days are really important and full of events for the US economics that are effective on DXY. Advance GDP will be released on Oct 29 and may be better than previous value, on the other hand it can affect on Presidential election. Presidential election will be over in the US next week. In addition ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Services PMI, FOMC Statement, FOMC Press Conference, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate will be released in next week. So we all should be careful in trading USD crosses. Best wishes
TVC:DXY
by jaberhosseiny
DXY Forecast (Pivotal info please read I apologize for volume)Here is my fundamental, technical, and news analysis of DXY . There are so many question remarks regarding the future of the US dollar forecasting a holding downtrend. I believe we will see the dollar drop to the September 1st low of 91.750. News Analysis Reports of the likely hood of the stimulus passing before the elections are slim. As a result volatility will increase with low sentiment pertaining to future strength. Reports of the US treasury report release announced further delay of the release. Delays have occurred due to COVID-19 and the elections. This is the likely cover for the under lying issue of the US heavy watch list of suspected countries engaging in currency manipulation. (Un-contracting trading of bilateral goods, unauthorized foreign aid, and unmatched account balance). US treasury report is set to release further information on investigation findings which if negative would effect the economy and sentiment immensely. Among these countries include Switzerland ( put back on the list) so that should be an interesting pair to watch. USD Index reported dropping .22% and expected to maintain that low the upcoming week. Stocks will be avoided adding more volatility to the dollar. Fundamental Reporters state “Banks imply bullish calendar week ahead” to avoid the first double dip recession in 40 years .Experienced traders know banks often play trickery. Banks focus on one thing and one thing only. Make more money. Unfortunately banks need to be funded as the main priority. We all know what happens when banks fall. This “implication” is simply to psychologically reassure traders to keep trading, falling into the fakeouts skewed by the money holders. Of course banks are going to reassure the general population a double dip won’t reoccur. Thus I will disregard this information until I see it play out. The Chinese Yuan has been dominating the Dollar for quite a while. As long as the Yuan heavily ways down on the Dollar, the Dollar will be negatively effected. Given China’s continued economic growth following hits from the pandemic, and the Dollars uncertainty we will continue to see the Yan dominate the Dollar. This in turn yields low sentiment. And of course the hot topic of the upcoming week for the US are the elections. If Biden’s chances grow stronger towards the end of the week we may see some positive growth as the Democrats will essentially demand a stimulus agreement. Who really knows where the US stands financially apart from the front office. One can only make speculations on the opposition. If the week begins and ends with candidate uncertainty we may see added volatility . Technical My 1hr technical chart view indicates the the dollar will drop to 91.750. We are currently seeing a push to form the lower low which will give me added confirmation of a true downtrend. The price must close below the horizontal trend I presented to fit my forecast criteria. I believe the the trend will move in a downward holding (short volatile candles) I hope everyone took the time to read this over! Below are my sources. Sources Reuters Investing.com Daily FX Netdania
TVC:DXY
by Pika7993
4
Crypto Market 1H AnalysisI took profit from all my trades that were in profit so I'm 100% on Tether. I think having Tether is the best position in this situation.. If it moves higher I'll enter for higher highs and if it dumps I'll wait for new lows to move in a trade.. I'll let you know for new levels of opening when the market decides to go up or down soon.. Next point is that the last US Presidential Debate was so confusing so we're are watching this confusion in market too.. Next, Dollar Index (DXY) has reached an important low and we should wait and see if it breaks this low level it'll move to lower lows so the gold and crypto market will go higher. But if Dollar Index reacts to this important low and pulls itself up.. we'll see some crypto movement toward down.. These are my Technical and Fundamental reasons for me to take profit all my trades and be on 100% Tether. So I'm waiting for Next movement of the crypto market to take part in trades, It could be upward or downward.. Let's enjoy the ways together.. This is my idea.. What do you think???
by ArshiaZojaji
2