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NMM has a great setup, but risk of an earnings missNavios Maritime is a container ship company that transports, among other things, iron ore and grain. It's been down this year due to the trade war, but recovery is long overdue. NMM has a forward P/E of 6.35, and an extraordinarily low P/B of about 0.25. It's dividend yield is over 7%. We did get some bearish shipping data the other day, but it seems to have been an anomaly due to shippers rescheduling some of their loads in order to cut costs. Today we got news that China's iron ore imports are close to a record high, and tomorrow we should get a Phase 1 trade deal that includes an agreement buy China to buy more soybeans. These should be good signs for NMM. However, NMM next reports earnings on 1/29 and has a negative ESP of -32.77% from Zacks, so beware the possibility of an upcoming earnings miss. This is also a fairly low-float stock, so expect volatility. For low-float stocks, relatively small changes in volume can lead to big moves in price.
NYSE:NMMLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
CPE an inexpensive bet to profit from Iran conflictWith energy prices rising and war with Iran looming, it's a good time to buy a company that exploits domestic oil resources in the United States. The problem with many such companies is that they either trade at a high multiple or their long-term prospects are very poor. Callon Petroleum, which drills oil and natural gas in West Texas, avoids those problems. With a P/E of 4.56, a P/B of 0.44, and forecasted earnings growth for the next couple years, CPE is a strong value for the long term and also should benefit from any escalation of Iran conflict in the short term. CPE has had a tremendous amount of trading volume in its current price range.
CLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
$IVZ Strategies on a Value Growth StockIVZ has low P/E, D/E, and P/B ratios, despite growing revenue and dividends. Therefore, my 5 year outlook is bullish. I suspect the best times to buy are around a low of $19.40 for a short turnaround, but the price may get as low as $18.58 in as little as 2-3 weeks if the impulse from Jan-Feb echos the latest high. Other possible low points for the suspected echo impulse, using fib levels, are 18.65, 18.93, 19.14, and 19.29. Pyramiding your buys using these levels should give a relatively low average position for long term growth, which can be sold off, probably during the year, for a profit to adjust the weight in the portfolio back to a reasonable level to meet your portfolio diversity goals. Despite the effort in averaging down and out, I do believe it is a worthy strategy to reap greater returns rather than buying once when it looks good. The average price per book value for this stock is less than one and averages greater than 1.65, according to Yahoo. To reach equivalent value if book value remained constant, which it will not, the factor is 1.8x. Earnings are expected to rise, so book value itself will rise over time. Book value has risen 50% in the past ten years, so a 5 year price target given today's suspected low and a 1.2x oversold factor (because who sells at value?) will be 19.40*1.8*1.25*1.2 = $52.38 or about a 170% return on investment, plus another $6 in 5 year straight dividends at $0.30 per quarter. Due to the volatility and bullish/bearish runs with bulls beating bears in the end, this makes a great swing trading opportunity. When the stock trends above 1.67% monthly or 0.38% weekly, the stock is performing greater than its exponential averages: Average Exponential Monthly (%) Growth: (2.7^(1/(12*5))-1)*100 = 1.67% Average Exponential Weekly (%) Growth: (2.7^(1/(365/7*5))-1)*100 = 0.38% This is likely to occur now and less likely over the course of 5 years. Therefore, linear price increments may be more useful in determining rapid growth in earlier stages. In which case, when the stock trades above $0.55 a month or $0.13, the stock is performing better than its linear averages: Average Monthly ($) Growth: (52.38-19.4)/(5*12) = $0.55 Average Weekly ($) Growth: (52.38-19.4)/(5*365/7) = $0.13 Right now, we are in a bit of a bull swing since Dec 24th, as with most (financial sector) stocks. There is some potential to ride this out for a while, so adjust your alerts to watch for the bear once it crosses down on the average expected growths. This stock has a tendency to go up in the early mornings around 10:00AM, so that would be your time to sell if the previous week was low and would not be your time to get hopeful.
NYSE:IVZLong
by ValueMyAsk
Garden Hose Pattern on a High DY REIT... Hurray for VolatilityNYSE:NLY is a bit less bearish in comparison to the other stocks in its peer group of REIT's with Div/Yield over 10%. You can see this since its P/E ratio (using FFO) is much higher, probably due to consistently high analyst ratings and their various reasons for evaluating it with neutral to positive ratings. As of recently, it has seen a weakness in volatility. In a triangle pattern, it approaches the 10.11 price point. At this point, the trend will see an arc, and a breakout will occur. Nothing trades flat forever, because every living thing has heat. I call this a garden hose pattern... because it sort of looks like a hose spraying a jet... and because I want to... Set your price points around 10.11 and look forward to a new wave of volatility. These 3-4 cent daily arc heights are stupid. The price/book value is a bit high, so I believe this is a good point to see a market correction. I would say my advice would be to short, if I had to guess. There may be some upward momentum left, but it will not sustain for long.
NYSE:NLY
by ValueMyAsk