Northop Grumman a buy near trend line supportDefense contractor Northop Grumman fell hard toward trend line support both before and after its earnings report last Friday, despite a solid beat of analyst expectations. The fall has occurred as analysts adjusted forward estimates of earnings and sales downward for the next two years. Despite the downward revisions, Northop Grumman remains a growth company, with PEG ratio of 1.8.
The share price has fallen much faster than earnings expectations, making NOC a very attractive buy as it approaches support. Let's look at NOC's current price ratios compared to its three-year median price ratios on earnings dates. Here is the implied upside from the current price ratio to the median price ratios on earnings dates over the last three years:
P/E: 21%
Fwd P/E: 18%
P/S: 17%
Fwd P/S: 21%
P/D: 17%
Fwd P/D: 23%
P/B: 31%
P/FCF: 81%
Sentiment on NOC is positive, with an 8.3/10 analyst summary score (average rating Buy). The news environment for the company is good, thanks to several US government contracts recently signed, and several others recently successfully completed. Open interest on NOC is about evenly split between bulls and bears, but the 30-day average of trading volume favors the bulls.
NOC is nearing support from July lows and a seven-month trend line. I will look to make a buy around 287.
Price-sales-ratio
Biogen trend line to watchBiogen today reported a huge earning beat, but disappointing guidance for the rest of the year. When you crunch the numbers, the midpoint of Biogen's guidance range for 2H 2020 came in slightly below Street consensus for both earnings and revenues.
Biogen has a reasonable, but not great valuation, with forward PEG of 3.78 and forward PSG of 1.27. It's currently in the lower half (26th percentile) of its three-year valuation range in terms of forward P/S and forward P/E. Biogen pays no dividend, and as a result the stock is more volatile than a dividend-paying stock would be.
Sentiment on Biogen improved quite a bit today. There have been no analyst upgrades yet, but options traders moved from net-bearish to net-bullish positioning for the short term, and from net-bearish to net-neutral positioning for the long term.
We're coming up on the strong season for pharmaceutical stocks in August. Biogen has only one phase 2 clinical trial result due in the second half of 2020 for its multiple sclerosis drug, but there are five results due in the first half of 2021, including a phase 3. These could prove to be major catalysts for the stock over the next year.
For the near term, watch for a possible trend line break as a sign that the stock will move higher.
Taiwan Semiconductor guidance crushed Street estimatesI saw a couple articles this morning suggesting that maybe TSM sold off today because forward guidance disappointed Street expectations. That's nonsense. Revenue guidance came in about 7% above expectations, and earnings guidance came in about 15% above Street expectations. This company's guidance crushed it . The stock sold off for one reason only: it is overbought.
TSM does look a bit pricey, even with the strong guidance for Q3. Even after factoring in the strong forward guidance, I am calculating forward P/E at about 21 and forward P/S at a little below 8. That's about 20% more expensive in forward P/E terms and 34% more expensive in forward P/S terms than the stock's average valuation over the last three years. In this challenging macroeconomic environment, that seems like an unreasonable valuation. It's a reflection of how inflated tech valuations have gotten due to Fed liquidity and investors piling into tech as a safe haven.
Having said that, TSM has an extraordinarily strong growth narrative right now, as the company is set to take over chip production for Apple. Formerly Apple's chips were manufactured by Intel. TSM also makes chips for Qualcomm, among other large companies. Thus, I think TSM will continue to outperform the Nasdaq and is a buy on any significant pullback. Ideally, I'd like to see this stock pull back to the volume node near $53.50 before buying, but in truth I don't see that happening any time soon.